Kirby's Return to Mafia Land - Game Over

[CT075]

what is all of this ? you mean refa's post ? because if it's the case i don't understand it at all.

does it make sense for scum!clarinets to try to gamble on getting refa lynched today? the biggest takeaway from his post is that if refa is scum and we mislynch, it is game over.

[CT075]

Also cam why the change on your read on, you were scum reading me for the majority of day 1 and voice you would have no problem lynching me in post 281, and yet without me doing anything significant to impact reads on me in a positive nature you were town reading me at the start of the phase, and now you have me listed as one of your scum reads again. Why the flip flopping what caused these changes?

probably lack of sleep

d1 i didn't like you at all

d2/d3 didn't exist

when i went back my gut said you were town so i said so but every time i went to write down why (everybody else seemed to disagree with me) it didn't make sense so i figured my reasons were bad after all

[CT075]

d2/d3 didn't exist

when i say this i mean to emphasize that this is almost quite literally an entire week during which basically nothing of use happened

[Refa]

fwiw, i don't think scum!clarinets would try to get me lynched on his own. way too ballsy for him. additionally, it's not impossible for him to have a similar thought process as town but the lack of any attention paid to my content is what's bothering me.

(tbh i am more salty about the fact that refa keeps pulling ahead of me in postcount than about anything happening in the game rn)

i'm the best

[Randa]

does it make sense for scum!clarinets to try to gamble on getting refa lynched today? the biggest takeaway from his post is that if refa is scum and we mislynch, it is game over.

No izuhark but it makes a lot of sense for scum! Clarinet to make this gamble this day phase. The odds are strongly in maf's favor ATM. Town has to play perfect were as maf can just sit back, not get lynched, and wait for town to fuck up which in most games it is inevitable, so the correct call is to make an aggressive move to secure the win now rather than to rely on town failing. Now this is also a very good gamble if clarinet's is scum because even if it fails then there are no strong associative reads available for town to use to make a comeback.

[Refa]

I don't want to lynch Randa or Izhuark anymore. I'm still fine w/lynching Kirsche, though.

[CT075]

Town has to play perfect were as maf can just sit back, not get lynched, and wait for town to fuck up which in most games it is inevitable, so the correct call is to make an aggressive move to secure the win now rather than to rely on town failing.

what? "mafia can sit back and let the town fail therefore the best move is to do something ballsy like trying to lynch the game's #1 townread?"

[CT075]

i legit don't know how i feel about kirsche; i'm way too fucking tired to deal with ISOs right now

what happened to elieson

[Randa]

what? "mafia can sit back and let the town fail therefore the best move is to do something ballsy like trying to lynch the game's #1 townread?"

If mafia succeeds they win, if they fail there are next to no loses on their part, just one member who gives only weak associative reads. Therefore they are able to gamble a small amount with a favorable rate of success and the prize being massive. A pretty good option IMO.

[CT075]

fuck reading this shit i am getting way too emotionally invested into this game i'm going to go read the best game of all time (super smash bros universe obv)

[Zkirsche]

Bothered by him for reasons previously stated (basically an issue with his lynch priority and how he's more focused on who he's voting than why he's voting them). Elie, it's less that I feel super strongly about him (you can see me doubting my read yesterday, but I think Mitsuki brought up a good point) and moreso how he hasn't really done else since to make me reevaluate my read (not necessarily his fault because the past two days were like a black hole but yeah).

Both you and Mitsuki are saying this, but I have no idea what gives you this idea? I don't vote people randomly, I vote them because I think they're scum and I have explained all of my reads well enough (no my fault if you keep missing the point I made on Randa). My previous post said Clarinets/Randa/Mitsuki more out of PoE. Mitsuki is probably my next biggest scumread for reasons I've already stated. I'm also getting paranoid by how much I think she is trying to control the game (and not in a good way) with regards to dismissing reads and such.

I feel like the cases on me are like "explain better Josh" when I have nothing more. If you want more tough cookies I'm too rusty to give it to you. Gut all the way.

The rest of Refa's reads post is actually quite good RIP why can't I read people anymore, his other stuff is more involved/motivated too so I can't even claim it. I hate being bad.

##Unvote

##Vote: Mitsuki

Can you give a reads post like Refas?

In other words, you're saying that you expect me to believe similarly to Elieson when he's town. Also, I get the feeling that you have this "rigid" idea of how people behave as town or scum in general with like no room for any other factors or interpretation. Which I think is bad.

I think this is a good explanation as to what my problem with Mitsuki is. She seems to have decided what the truth of the matter is and twists everything to fit her narrative. Apparently I'm a similar player to Vhaltz in that I would also AtE by pretending to get annoyed that only Cam can read me. But I'm pretty sure me and Vhaltz are very different people and players so this is ???

Before reading past page 28 I'll wager that she'll use my inactivity as an argument against me, not realising that she is pushing me like I'm both a competent and an incompetent player.

Why you didnt save your hook on PR BREAKPUNISHMENT until a time that iy could be useful instead of basically wasting a 5x multiperson hook as soon as you possibly could?

Wait people are hooked if they fail the PR? Has she used all of the shots? Seems really random and I would like her to explain her choices more then. REASONS is not a good enough explanation.

Maybe because Mancer could confirm Clarinets' sanity and scum want to avoid confirmation? I seem to be the only one who rated the sanity confirmation highly and I know I'm not scum. It's something I'd consider. Also he was basically confirmed town. That's probably it.

Elie would not be this mad at Mitsuki's failure to use her role as scum. (Also it was called steins;gate on purpose it's not a typo scrub)

Also did you read my role PM? No. So you don't entirely know why I made the decisions I made.

Dodging criticism. Answer the question.

Apparently Refa thinks I'm scummy (partially at least) because apparently mafia wouldn't be afraid of day vig otherwise? Really dumb post.

If I was scum I would've shot through the mass hook. I didn't even really know it was happening and it'd be mylo right now (which I'm pretty sure Refa mentioned but it looks like he's conveniently forgotten).

Ugh I keep going back on forth on my Refa read which probably means he's scum because I can usually tell if it's town!Refa based on his reactions to me.

##Unvote

No lynch today imo. It's basically mylo if Refa is scum and I don't want to risk it. It also potentially gives Clarinets some more time. Would lynch Refa or Mitsuki, maybe Randa but not clarinets or Izhuark. Izu is still more likely town based on Mitsuki's play.

[Randa]

So going through mitsuki's iso she very much feels like she's trying to control the game and move in the direction she feels it should, thing is I don't really have a problem with this though. To explain we traditionally don't see town leaders in NOC because all the information is public so there's no secret back door deal makings and there is no need to have everybody report to one person to condense information and find inconsistencies between conversations. With that being said this game definitely feels like we are lacking consistent direction and losing focus at times and somebody trying to direct us could be beneficial.

Now with that being said I feel like one of Kirsche and cam is scum, this is predominantly because this makes the night 1kill the most logical, now due to the no kill night 2 I am inclined to believe that cam is more likely, but with that being said it has been pointed out that we don't know whether or not the aesetic blocks the mass hook, and it's impossible for Kirsche to confirm or deny this because doing so confirms he has an actual action to perform, which could only be the night kill, unless one of clarinets or mitsuki is lying and they can give him some action, not likely btw.

Gonna go through boron's ISO and the consider whether there is any reason to no-lynch and then I will decide what I wanna do.

[Sunwoo]

How the fuck did this thing get three pages while I was asleep ;/

I don't agree with Clarinets-through-Cam's post about lynching Refa. Regardless of whether there is merit in it or not, I would not lynch someone I was town reading. I'm curious as to whether Clarinets is scum reading Refa or not, however, because if he has no suspicion on Refa but wants to lynch him over role I'd consider that opportunistic and scummy, but if Refa's a scum read then wanting to lynch is understandable.

I also don't think Refa being alive means anything, and wouldn't want to lynch him over that alone. I looked through his ISO and his content, and I still don't get the feeling that he's scum, and I'd want something more than just "well he's still alive" as a reason to lynch someone I'm town reading.

Also, Izuhark's continued avoidance of giving reads is looking really, really bad on him and it feels like he's trying to delay being lynched with the promise of giving scum reads he doesn't intend to follow up on. If he can't answer a simple question of "who would you want to lynch and why" and says he will get back to it after he reads the thread, when that's all he's been saying since D1, it just seems like obvious scum lurking.

i actually forgot about boron but her tone feels towny at least through her earlier posts when she was around. might not be a bad idea to lynch her so she won't be inactive for LYLO though.

>|

I was about to say kirsche had dropped off the face of the planet, but then he had reappeared so lol.

I still have more to say, but I'm going to post this now so I don't accidentally lose my post (which has been happening quite a bit lately, so I don't want to risk it).

[Randa]

So thoughts on boron,

Honestly I have no idea. I cannot read boron very well. It's a null read on the player spot I don't know.

Anyways just touching on some other things,

Kingdom is an absolutely amazing manga.

Mitsuki your whole Refa suspicion just reads as paranoia, there's any number of reasons he's still alive.

Cam who did you target nights 1 and 3?

[Refa]

Dude Kirsche, I didn't conveniently forget about the MYLO thing. It's just that it'd put you in a 1v1 w/Izhuark and would be a horrible move for you to make (mostly because you're hard townreading Izhuark). I don't get why my kill theory is dumb, though. Like yeah, other people could be afraid of the DayVig as well (which in all fairness, isn't something I thought of) but my point was that it made sense as a kill FYPOV. You're right about it not incriminating you, though. Anyways regarding your posts, it's less because of your arguments but how you went about pushing them. Like...I'm not sure how to explain it any better than I did other than it felt like you were picking people rather than naturally letting those reads form and I GET that me saying that can be annoying because it's like "how the fuck do I defend against this" but I have no better way of explaining my issues (your latest post seems pretty good though ugh why; at least in this case, being awful at reading the person goes both ways).

Don't think NLing would help because it would still be MYLO by the time Clarinets got his result in (otherwise it'd be perfect) and it just lets scum decide on who can vote tomorrow.

[Sunwoo]

Kirsche doesn't make sense as scum unless mafia predicted the mass hook. I wish Kirsche was scum because it would be an easy lynch on scum, because theres no reason for scum to risk getting interrupted or caught. Since Kirsche is aesetic the kill would've gone through night 2, since Kirsche is the only person who wouldn't be effected it becomes an easy lynch and town would get rid of one of the more dangerous scum roles.

Randa, could you explain your reasoning for this because I don't understand how this means kirsche doesn't make sense as scum unless mafia predicted the masshook.

Regarding kirsche himself, though, reading through his content again is making me rethink my "less-than-good" feeling on him. I think I have a personal bias against his play style and the way he says stuff, but I'm having a hard time finding the scum intent in his posts. He's leaning town to me.

Both Randa and kirsche bring up something about Mitsuki.

I think this is a good explanation as to what my problem with Mitsuki is. She seems to have decided what the truth of the matter is and twists everything to fit her narrative. Apparently I'm a similar player to Vhaltz in that I would also AtE by pretending to get annoyed that only Cam can read me. But I'm pretty sure me and Vhaltz are very different people and players so this is ???

So going through mitsuki's iso she very much feels like she's trying to control the game and move in the direction she feels it should, thing is I don't really have a problem with this though.

Although it's my post that kirsche is replying to, we may have seen the same point in a different light. I'd interpreted it as Mitsuki being overly reliant on meta and creating false dichotomies between players and her interpretation of their actions, but ultimately a "Mitsuki" thing and not an alignment tell. But kirsche seems to see it as a reason she's scummy. I can definitely see his logic, but I don't think it's something exclusive to scum!Mitsuki. She's always felt to me like someone who relies on meta a lot.

Randa's observation is what concerns me more. I don't think players trying to control the game is a good thing, especially in NOC environments. I haven't read through Mitsuki's entire ISO in quite a while, so I don't know yet if I agree or disagree with Randa on his observation. I'm going to have to read through all her posts again to see if I get the same vibe myself, but if I do get that feeling then I may have to revise my read on her.

So thoughts on boron,

Honestly I have no idea. I cannot read boron very well. It's a null read on the player spot I don't know.

;-;

At least he didn't call me unmemorable

[Sunwoo]

tl;dr

Refa - town

Cam - town

Elie - town

kirsche - leaning town

Mitsuki - need to reread, but currently leaning town

Randa - leaning scum (but need to reread as well)

Clarinets - scum (his reasoning for wanting to lynch Refa feels opportunistic)

Izuhark - scum

[Randa]

@boron

If Kirsche is scum, then the logical choice IMO would be to have Kirsche perform the kill each night. Since Kirsche wouldn't be effected by the hook there would have been a kill night 2. Since there was no kill night 2 therefore Kirsche doesn't make sense to me as scum.

[Sunwoo]

@boron

If Kirsche is scum, then the logical choice IMO would be to have Kirsche perform the kill each night. Since Kirsche wouldn't be effected by the hook there would have been a kill night 2. Since there was no kill night 2 therefore Kirsche doesn't make sense to me as scum.

Okay, that make sense, but I don't know if it's absolutely certain that the masshook wouldn't have affected ascetic. Either way, I don't think kirsche is scum anyway.

[Zkirsche]

@Boron: I don't find Mitsuki scummy for using meta, I find her scummy for the way she uses it. Everything she says just conveniently pushes her narrative of events further and every little read or thing someone does to oppose it she has to get in the way of. I'm super biased but the me and Vhaltz thing was supposed to be an example.

Her push on you felt kinda unnatural as well. Almost like "this is the best thing to do" which it seems is Refa's problem with me so rip.

@Refa: Just because it'd be mylo doesn't mean we won't have more to go off of. One of Refa/Cam/Mitsuki/Boron will go down and take their suspicions down with it. We can use this to get associative reads. It's effectively mylo now anyway, with Refa's bonus vote, so NL is the natural option. The biggest argument against it is that it will increase paranoia to the surviving players ("why is Refa still alive") imo but personally I'm willing to risk it. At the end of the day we either overcome our false suspicions or we go down anyway. No half measures.

Also I think *ylo would be worth it. I know people hate self meta because they're dumb but I'm the type of player to go for the one v one anyway. I could easily Wifom it like "why would I pit myself against someone I've been hard defending all this time" or something and it's not like Izhuark is so town that people will overlook it. I bet if people saw a kill their first reaction would be to lynch him anyway because they'd see strong willed and it'd be natural to assume he did it, it was a while before anyone saw my point about the ascetic.

[CT075]

i watched refa n1 and clarinets n3 for no particular reason (this thing can't see kills so im like... completely at a loss as to how to use it tbh

nobody was on refa n1 and izhu was on clarinets n3

[CT075]

i am also not really a fan of no-lynching; kirsche isn't wrong, exactly, but IMO we go big or we go home (and by that i mean we lynch someone, *YLO be damned, I trust Refa)

While i'm at it

##unvote

##vote Izhuark

This is probably the one I feel best about; other people have outlined most of the other problems I have with him.

[Refa]

It's dumb logic anyways because if I'm scum, town doesn't gain anything from NLing other than letting me decide who to bring into LYLO (or I could just No Kill as scum and we'd be in the exact same position as we are today, whatever) and if I'm town, we lose out on a mislynch.

You bring up a legit point regarding the 1v1 thing; I remember you intentionally CCing the cop in Reclass Mafia (or was it the doctor? w/e) because you knew you could get away with it. Didn't think of that, but yeah I'm not scumreading you anymore.

[Refa]

You is referring to Kirsche. I feel better about Randa from his recent posts but I'd still vote him over Izhuark just because I think it's a lot easier to fake contribution (and Randa still doesn't have any scumreads, so it's not like he's pushing anything) over faking cluelessness.

[CT075]

Phoneposting from the airport; I wont have another chance to post slash change my vote most likely.