Summoning Focus: Brave Heroes!

[DefyingFates]

I'm one Orb away from another full summon and this morning, to save Orbs (F2P), I decided I wasn't going to try getting Roy anymore. I got Lyn as my freebie so am currently pulling for Lucina and Ike. I know Ike is arguably better but I think I'd be more devastated to not get Lucina so she's probably my priority.

Is that a good strategy? (I have a pity rate of 4%, if that's relevant.)

P.S. I know Ike is 4% likely to pop out of any Green Orb, what are the odds of getting Lucina from a Blue)?

[JaeD53]

Guys, I'm in a serious dilemma.

 

+spd -def brave Ike, or +atk -spd?

[Korath88]

1 minute ago, JaeD53 said:

Guys, I'm in a serious dilemma.

 

+spd -def brave Ike, or +atk -spd?

+Atk -Spd is probably his best nature

[Tenzen12]

1 hour ago, DefyingFates said:

I'm one Orb away from another full summon and this morning, to save Orbs (F2P), I decided I wasn't going to try getting Roy anymore. I got Lyn as my freebie so am currently pulling for Lucina and Ike. I know Ike is arguably better but I think I'd be more devastated to not get Lucina so she's probably my priority.

Is that a good strategy? (I have a pity rate of 4%, if that's relevant.)

P.S. I know Ike is 4% likely to pop out of any Green Orb, what are the odds of getting Lucina from a Blue)?

Sure, it is not bad strategy. That said while it's perfectly fine give priority to Lucina Ike being better isn't anywhere near "arguable". But that's not something you need let influence you.

Also I think blue are more common though I don't have any hard numbers.

Edited September 1, 2017 by Tenzen12

[Othin]

3 hours ago, DefyingFates said:

I'm one Orb away from another full summon and this morning, to save Orbs (F2P), I decided I wasn't going to try getting Roy anymore. I got Lyn as my freebie so am currently pulling for Lucina and Ike. I know Ike is arguably better but I think I'd be more devastated to not get Lucina so she's probably my priority.

Is that a good strategy? (I have a pity rate of 4%, if that's relevant.)

P.S. I know Ike is 4% likely to pop out of any Green Orb, what are the odds of getting Lucina from a Blue)?

Lucina from a blue is 3%. A non-focus blue 5* from blue is also 3%: it's the one color that works out pretty much exactly the same as the overall rate.

For a 4% pity rate, it turns into:

Edited September 1, 2017 by Othin

[silverserpent]

@Othin, so...basically red is geared to off-banner pity pulls, green is focus pity, blue and colorless just don't care?

[Othin]

18 minutes ago, silverserpent said:

@Othin, so...basically red is geared to off-banner pity pulls, green is focus pity, blue and colorless just don't care?

Pity rate doesn't really have anything to do with it: it has the same proportional effect on all colors and all 5*s. But otherwise, pretty much, yeah. It's also worth noting that colorless has the lowest total 5* rate, at least on a banner like this that's evenly split up among the colors.

[DefyingFates]

Thank you b

5 hours ago, Tenzen12 said:

Sure, it is not bad strategy. That said while it's perfectly fine give priority to Lucina Ike being better isn't anywhere near "arguable". But that's not something you need let influence you.

Also I think blue are more common though I don't have any hard numbers.

I was trying to leave room for doubt in case something changed but I take it people still agree that Ike is better than Lucina and Roy? As I said I'm pulling for both. I think a good part of the reason I want Lucina is to complete the set (and also because I could really use another buffbot. On the other hand I'm low on Greens...)

2 hours ago, Othin said:

Lucina from a blue is 3%. A non-focus blue 5* from blue is also 3%: it's the one color that works out pretty much exactly the same as the overall rate.

For a 4% pity rate, it turns into:

Thanks! This is the first time I've understood these charts.

This really highlights how awful colourless hell is, doesn't it? I'm surprised to see Blue really isn't much better and I knew Green Focus units had a higher probability overall but that's an impressive difference compared to Blue (of 1.25%, but still). With only 10 Orbs to my name I can't wait to get the rest of the CYL Free Orbs so I can give this banner another try...come home already Lucina and Ike!

[Azuni]

That chart makes me worried about the difficulty of pulling B.Roy, I just hope the free option is still available long long after this banner ends (didn't see an end date).

[Ice Dragon]

1 minute ago, Azuni said:

That chart makes me worried about the difficulty of pulling B.Roy, I just hope the free option is still available long long after this banner ends (didn't see an end date).

If you pull all 5 orbs during each summoning session, the chances of getting each focus character are exactly equal.

[DefyingFates]

29 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

If you pull all 5 orbs during each summoning session, the chances of getting each focus character are exactly equal.

How so?

[Othin]

14 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

How so?

The way it works is, 0.75% of orbs the game generates on the banner are Roy and 0.75% are Ike. But about 30% of orbs are red while only about 20% are green, because the non-focus characters are much more frequently red than green. So if you pull red, you'll have to dig through a lot more non-Roy red orbs because there are a lot more non-Roy red orbs, with the Roy orbs being only 2.5% of red orbs while the Ike orbs are 4% of green orbs. But if you pull without paying attention to color, you're just going off the total rate of 0.75%.

[DefyingFates]

27 minutes ago, Othin said:

The way it works is, 0.75% of orbs the game generates on the banner are Roy and 0.75% are Ike. But about 30% of orbs are red while only about 20% are green, because the non-focus characters are much more frequently red than green. So if you pull red, you'll have to dig through a lot more non-Roy red orbs because there are a lot more non-Roy red orbs, with the Roy orbs being only 2.5% of red orbs while the Ike orbs are 4% of green orbs. But if you pull without paying attention to color, you're just going off the total rate of 0.75%.

Ah, gotcha. Thanks!

[ChibiToastExplosion]

5 hours ago, Azuni said:

That chart makes me worried about the difficulty of pulling B.Roy, I just hope the free option is still available long long after this banner ends (didn't see an end date).

Wow, after seeing all these numbers, I feel lucky. I've probably dumped my stash of 60-70 orbs in to exclusive red, and I managed to pull one Roy so far, so I merged him with the freebie for a +1....

I still plan on fishing for more so long as this banner lasts, just to see how lucky I am / how high can + up the boy.

[Rinco]

Only missing Roy from this banner. Spent the last of my orbs today trying to get him, but to no succes (up to 5% pity rate now). 

So, I decided to stop sniping red and I'll start doing full pulls when I get to 20 orbs. Maybe I can get better IVs for Lyn/Ike/Lucina.

[NekoKnight]

16 hours ago, mampfoid said:

Ready for some salt? 

I just spent my 283 orbs on the CYL banner. Nearly all summons have been full summons. First summoning session got me a 5* Rebecca, that's my only 5* i got at all, my pity rate is 6.25%. 

I thought i was smart, waiting with the freebie and pulling all colors for as many CYL units as possible. Now i am not even eager to take the free unit. 

Sorry for your loss. I've "only"spent 120 orbs doing full pulls and my results, barring an Ike (+Spd -Atk bleh) have been pretty dismall. If not for the free pick, which I'm saving for last, this banner would be a total wash, and worse, it will ruin my orb supply for the next banner.

[Usana]

This banner hates me. Managed another 20 pull thanks to all the september quests. First orb has a -def +res 5 star Effie. I go ahead and pull all he orbs(another blue, 2 reds, and a colorless). And I get a Kagero. A -atk +def Kagero. I Guess I'll merge Effie down to my 4 star atk boon Effie, and Kagero can just sit around and do nothing I guess. Seriously, even with negative attack I could have dedicated her as a Mage killer if she had +spd or maybe res. But what is she going to do with Def?

So yeah, you'd think I'd be happy. I have somehow managed FOUR five stars out of this banner. But all were non-focus and had *bleep* for IV's. I'd much rather have even a single focus. Not sure if that is better or worse than mamfoid's luck. I'll wait until I hear if anything comes from that 6+% pity. Another 20 orbs before the banner ends shouldn't be hard to grind up since we are still getting 2 daily.

Edited September 2, 2017 by Usana

[Seafarer]

Several people seem to be stuck on pulling for Roy, and he showed up for me on my free pull (not the choice one - the free first pull on the banner proper), followed immediately by Olwen. :-D

I'm hoping Ike will show up soon. My second summon circle was a total failure, but I'll have enough for a third when the daily orbs come in this evening. Might edit this post with the results.

Edit: Yeah, so I got Brave Lucina. Also a new Klein. Much better!

Edited September 2, 2017 by Seafarer

[Raptok]

I picked Lucina as my guaranteed summon, and got CYL Roy on my second full summon.

Feeling pretty good for F2P. I'm hoping to get Lyn from this banner as well, but I wouldn't be too excited for Ike, he just doesn't interest me.

[Hawk King]

I'm getting good luck with 5* units on this banner. 7 of them with ~200 orbs.

Unfortunately 5 of those 7 are off banner and the Roy and Lyn I got are both -Atk.

It should be 4% for focus and 2% for non-focus.

edit - FUCK!!!!!! I just pulled a 5* Marth.

Edited September 2, 2017 by Hawk King

[Usana]

14 minutes ago, Hawk King said:

Unfortunately 5 of those 7 are off banner and the Roy and Lyn I got are both -Atk.

It should be 4% for focus and 2% for non-focus.

I concur. I just made another full pull, I was sniping at blues, but Delthea went and ruined my pity. Seriously I couldn't get her during her banner and now she is throwing herself into my lap. I am just about ready to say screw this.I mean with this banner I don't even care whom I get. I would gladly trade all 5 worthless 5*(as in I have no interest in them) for just 1 of the braves. Heck I would even settle for being able to refuse a unit. I.E. you lose your orbs but not your pity rate. Usually I am willing to dump a bit of money at a banner if I like it(usually a 75 pack). But if all I am going to get is off-focus than screw that.

 

I am guessing this is sign from above to not put any more cash at this game.

[Hawk King]

1 minute ago, Usana said:

I concur. I just made another full pull, I was sniping at blues, but Delthea went and ruined my pity. Seriously I couldn't get her during her banner and now she is throwing herself into my lap. I am just about ready to say screw this.I mean with this banner I don't even care whom I get. I would gladly trade all 5 worthless 5*(as in I have no interest in them) for just 1 of the braves. Heck I would even settle for being able to refuse a unit. I.E. you lose your orbs but not your pity rate. Usually I am willing to dump a bit of money at a banner if I like it(usually a 75 pack). But if all I am going to get is off-focus than screw that.

 

I am guessing this is sign from above to not put any more cash at this game.

See my edit

At least Delthea is super good.

[Usana]

Just now, Hawk King said:

See my edit

At least Delthea is super good.

Yeah, but I do already have her, a +spd/-hp one who has been a mainstay. I mean I guess merge fodder. If they were going to give me another one they could at least have given me a +spd/-def one so that I could debate on which bane I would prefer(ok, so it wouldn't be much of a debate, but would have made me feel a tad better). Still I can admit that it is a lot better than getting a 5-star marth. Heck the 5-star Caeda it threw me earlier was probably better than Marth(if only because I actually use a Caeda on my Flier team some times).

Anyways I didn't much mind dropping a 39.99 at the game at least once a month since it seems like those 75+free orbs is usually enough to get you at least one five star. And I had been lucky enough in the past apparently that they were often a focus. Though since her banner Mathilda has been stalking me. Guess I should be glad she has given up even if she got Delthea to take her place.

[DefyingFates]

15 minutes ago, Usana said:

Anyways I didn't much mind dropping a 39.99 at the game at least once a month since it seems like those 75+free orbs is usually enough to get you at least one five star. And I had been lucky enough in the past apparently that they were often a focus. Though since her banner Mathilda has been stalking me. Guess I should be glad she has given up even if she got Delthea to take her place.

And now I'm imagining those two planning how to screw you over during downtime in Alm's army...

I got my first Mathilda today, funnily enough. Thankfully she's only a 4* and I currently have a 4.50% pity rate. (You're right, @Hawk King, focus units should have a greater overall likelihood to show up - at least in special banners like this and Hero Fest.)

I have 11 Orbs right now and oh boy does it suck having to wait for Orbs as a F2Player. At least we get 4 Orbs a day for another week (plus 4 when the Voting Gauntlet finals begin)...

[mampfoid]

21 hours ago, NekoKnight said:

Sorry for your loss. I've "only"spent 120 orbs doing full pulls and my results, barring an Ike (+Spd -Atk bleh) have been pretty dismall. If not for the free pick, which I'm saving for last, this banner would be a total wash, and worse, it will ruin my orb supply for the next banner.

Yes, I will probably have to skip the next banner, but my luck returned (see below). Perhaps the odds will turn also in your favor!

On 1.9.2017 at 10:35 AM, DehNutCase said:

*Presses F to pay respects*

(At least the the CYL heroes will probably stick around after the banner passes, if you don't manage to nab one of the focus units.)

Regarding pulling, though---it's actually a bit more orb efficient to snipe than to full pull, despite the last 3 cost orb. Green orbs are significantly more likely to pop out Ike than other colors and their focus---he's almost 4% compared to Roy's 2.5% or so. The optimal orb color strategy would be green > colorless > blue > red if you only care about getting lots of focus units---I personally favor blues over colorless because of colorless hell---but even that doesn't completely prevent bad luck. : S

With the orbs we got from missions yesterday (and some September missions) I followed your suggestion and sniped for green. I got some 3* and 4* and then in a session without green, I chose blue and guess what? ... Lucina!

Today the same, after one Arthur and one Boey a session with only red and colorless, I chose red and guess what? ... Roy! 

Perhaps tomorrow I have to snipe colorless to get Ike? 

Btw: I never understood this "press F" meme, is it a button on a Nintendo console?