Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[BBM]

another question to kirsche, during your Bartozio case you said this: "His Sully case is good; I would like him to explain what scum!Sully is trying to achieve by just hopping about and voting people who are under pressure though". The context and wording with the "though" at the end implies you didn't see the scum intent in this, but you are now voting Sully partially due to this. What changed?

your Sully case also feels weird because half of it is like... asking people what they find scummy about him or crowdsourcing scummy actions of his. This: "I think the worst thing is that he seems to be also hopping onto the largest wagon at the time each time which is quite opportunistic and I can definitely see newb!scum doing that." + the Shinori interaction bit is the only part of it where you actually find him scummy and are not half-defending him. I get that your reread was focused mostly on Shinori but I'd like you to do a proper reread of Sully.

I'm going kirsche > Bartozio > Sully right now but I don't feel great about it.

@Sully- most likely a vig, yeah. a serial killer is unlikely in a 13p game, and plus there was only one kill N1.

also, this is an all-time great mafia line: "On a lighter note, we had a cow calve today and I've decided to name the new baby "Prims", after our departed friend. May this calf not suffer the same fate." do you live on a farm?

 

[Percivalé]

1 hour ago, SullyMcGully said:

However, these opinions seem to waver quite a bit. For instance, one day he's sure of me being town but this morning, things have changed. What's the point of him stating solid opinions if he doubles back on them later with a good excuse? It makes good camouflage, that's for sure.

 

5 hours ago, Quote said:

it just goes to show how much my reads fucking suck this game

i have my reasons for everything.

real post coming Soon™

[Percivalé]

also i really think refa is town.
usually i can't fucking read refa at all but i'm like. Pretty Sure of this.

i know i said that d1 about sully but i mean it this time

[BBM]

i'm also pretty sure Refa is town I was joking about the avatar thing it's a reference to SF3 where we were buddies and he changed his avatar every day to a slightly different looking anime girl with brown hair and nobody noticed

[BBM]

A Thing wrt Shinori-Bartozio interactions- Bartozio at the start of D2 was like "yeah Shinori's D1 case on me was fine" even though it blew holes and then when Shinori yelled at him here for not doing shit he basically didn't respond even though he posted pretty soon after that. maybe because he knew it was a bit faked? I'm feeling better about that as a possible scumpair now

Shinori/kirsche/Bartozio it's LOCKED you guys want to give up?

[Refa]

37 minutes ago, BBM said:

i'm also pretty sure Refa is town I was joking about the avatar thing it's a reference to SF3 where we were buddies and he changed his avatar every day to a slightly different looking anime girl with brown hair and nobody noticed

I'm also pretty sure I'm town but my role PM isn't Innocent Child, so why is everyone else so sure?????  #MakesYouThink

20 minutes ago, BBM said:

A Thing wrt Shinori-Bartozio interactions- Bartozio at the start of D2 was like "yeah Shinori's D1 case on me was fine" even though it blew holes and then when Shinori yelled at him here for not doing shit he basically didn't respond even though he posted pretty soon after that. maybe because he knew it was a bit faked? I'm feeling better about that as a possible scumpair now

Shinori/kirsche/Bartozio it's LOCKED you guys want to give up?

[Refa]

6 hours ago, kirsche said:

Also @Refa/Paperblade: What made you think Sully was being coached, like what sentences and stuff do you think were too confident/well made to come from a newbie like him that warranted this suspicion in the first place? I ask because Sully seeming confused about whether Mackc could be scum or not doesn’t suggest that they are being coached by anyone. Also I feel like someone being coached would make way less mistakes.

I think Sully/Shinori makes a reasonable scum team, as Shinori town reads him and never really expands on it, never really commenting on the actual cases made by other people on him in the process. Shinori had also supposedly eased Sully’s suspicions because his Bart case was “weak but with merit” which is weird. What are those merits?

His posts in general seemed more confident after ED1, and he made more of them.  Too lazy to link it but I felt better about this after he made the post where he was like "well of course I was being coached, right here on this thread!" because it didn't seem like a scum response.

This makes it possible for Sully/Shinori to be scum together but not more likely.  Why is Shinori not just dismissing a town member, scum does it all of the time.

5 hours ago, kirsche said:

2) The only comparison I made between the Baldrick and Ken cases was that people had settled on them very quickly. I was/am frustrated that town sat on the Ken lynch for so long that it became basically inevitable and then the same warning signs started appearing again so I spoke out about it. To me it doesn't matter if someone is the scummiest scumlord that ever existed (excluding actual guilties or 1v1 situations of course), deciding to lynch them and viewing everything they do as scummy isn't going to help town in any way. I didn't care about lynching Baldrick and I wasn't defending him, commiting to the lynch was a bad idea.

I didn't reread Baldrick until later because rereading the thread was painful enough once to try and look at all of Prims' posts and I was struggling to motivate myself to read it again. By the time I had made my GLORIOUS ANNOUNCEMENT it was 1:20AM and I was having a hard time staying coherant (you might notice my post length dropped to about one line a post with the first thought that came into my head), and I most certainly couldn't focus enough to form a good analysis. I spent much of the next evening reading through his ISO and thinking about what he'd say and whether or not certain posts would come from scum, but came to the overall conclusion that he was scummy and that I was happy to lynch him.

I did read what people were saying when the momentum was shifting against him, but the points being made weren't very convincing to me (e.g. he was town because of the VT claim) and his posts weren't moving me too much one way or the other, with just a few thigns here and there throwing me off. Wouldn't exactly want to lynch anyone else and didn't really have the time to stick around so left it at that.

@Bartozio:

Why did you like them?

My mistake, looked like two different points to me.

What are you thoughts on Sully now that Shinori has flipped scum but Baldrick flipped town? You said that if both flipped scum Sully is less likely to be scum but what now?

I'm getting a disconnect here because if you were getting similar vibes from both lynches (again, the Baldrick wagon was in full force in the first 24 hours of the day), why did you not bother rereading?  Surely Town!You would want to prevent a mislynch?

2 hours ago, SullyMcGully said:

Refa: Paranoid. He has such perfect townplay it's putting me on edge. Like, with such excellent play, how are we at D3 with five townies dead? I'm not blaming him for their deaths, that's the entire idea: he's absolutely blameless! So there's a bit of a conspiracy theory I've been rolling around in my head. This has a very small chance of actually being the case, but I figured I'd point it out anyway: what if Refa is scum? Our only confirmed scum, Shinori, was never put under a lot of pressure by Refa. I mean, sure there's been exchanges, but hasn't Refa been suspicious of just about everyone at some point or another? It's this perfect townplay, this constant suspicion of everyone that makes Refa look unbiased and trustworthy. He pays attention to everyone, not just the primary wagons. He asks many questions, but is noticeably lacking in strong opinions. That's what bothers me. He never says he's sure of anything, he treats everything like it's an uncertainty. Therefore, his constantly questioning nature makes him look townie without forcing him to take sides strongly. He's not the only one I suspect of being this way, though...

via: Paranoid. I suspect via for many of the same reasons as Refa. He's constantly considering everything, but unlike Refa, he does put his foot down every once in a while. However, these opinions seem to waver quite a bit. For instance, one day he's sure of me being town but this morning, things have changed. What's the point of him stating solid opinions if he doubles back on them later with a good excuse? It makes good camouflage, that's for sure. Once again, the chances of this being the case are very slim, but could he be scum? I could actually see him and Refa on a team together: they consult back and forth, coming to similar conclusions on almost everything. How much of our faith in Refa as a townie is based on how in sync he seems to be with via? What about vice versa? This is a long shot, but I thought I'd put it out there.

The secret is that I'm not actually good at being town, I just vastly prefer it to being scum so I generally get town read more just for being more interested in the game.  Fair enough regarding my interactions WRT Shinori (I was never bothered by him, I just thought he could be scum by POE), but I'm a bit miffed you're saying I'm lacking in strong opinions.  I spent the last 48 hours parked on a dude.  If you're going to get on my back, at least do it because I parked on flipped town, not because I don't have strong opinions.

Honestly, your Via read just reads as paranoia to me.  Whereas FYPOV my interactions w/Shinori don't make me look good, I don't get why you think Via could be scum other than "well they didn't die AGAIN".  Coming from someone who has been way too paranoid this game, you need to have something more concrete to base a scum read on (e.g. mine/Shinori's interactions).  If you don't have that, well then maybe the slot is town.

Also scum generally avoid having similar conclusions so that they don't get called out on it.  Anyways, I don't think my reads have been that similar to Via's...

[Bartozio]

Alright guys, I have something to share regarding last night.

My role is a tracker, and I followed Marth last night to find him targeting Shinori. This likely means Marth is the one who killed Shinori for us last night.
Now normally this would just mean Marth is a vig who did his job well, but there's a problem: Marth didn't think Shinori was scum!

If Marth was town, I'm pretty sure he would have killed either Sully or Kirsche instead, as those were his actual scum reads. Of course, he may have thought Shinori was the third scum member after the Baldrick flip, but I doubt he would shoot the scumread he was the least certain of. The logical conclusion is thus that Marth is actually a serial killer, who just happened to hit scum. (Sorry Refa, I guess my sense for balance in this game really does suck...)

##Vote: Marth

[Bartozio]

Honestly, I don't know why nobody besides Prims got killed N1. Maybe Marth is even night only SK, maybe both he and scum tried to kill Prims, or maybe either side targeted the person being doc'ed, I don't know. I still feel it's better to lynch Marth before any scum members in order to prevent having multiple townies die in one night again (rip Paperblade).

[charlie_]

I forgot to do these before going out so the formatting is going to look off.

Votals 3.1

kirsche (2): Refa, BBM
SullyMcGully (2): kirsche, Via
Bartozio (1): SullyMcGully
Marth (1): Bartozio

Not Voting (2): Elieson, Marth

There are 58 hours left in the day. With 8 alive, it takes 3 to lynch and 5 to hammer.

Edited December 6, 2017 by SB.

[Bluedoom]

Dude, I am not a serial killer lol. Not sure what to think of that claim with that logic but I don't feel like claiming just because some guy thinks that tracking a person on to a mafia member is a guilty.

[Elieson]

NGL i haven't really kept up so i've got SO MUCH reading to do

[Bartozio]

30 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Dude, I am not a serial killer lol. Not sure what to think of that claim with that logic but I don't feel like claiming just because some guy thinks that tracking a person on to a mafia member is a guilty.

I really don't see how shooting someone you're not suspecting makes you town though...

[SullyMcGully]

8 hours ago, BBM said:

also, this is an all-time great mafia line: "On a lighter note, we had a cow calve today and I've decided to name the new baby "Prims", after our departed friend. May this calf not suffer the same fate." do you live on a farm?

 

Yes, I do. And coincidentally I found a possum trying to pick a fight with "Prims" this morning. The work of scum, perhaps?

27 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Dude, I am not a serial killer lol. Not sure what to think of that claim with that logic but I don't feel like claiming just because some guy thinks that tracking a person on to a mafia member is a guilty.

Are you saying Bartozio is lying, and didn't really follow you, or that you targeted Shinori with a different role?

7 hours ago, Refa said:

Honestly, your Via read just reads as paranoia to me.

Well yeah, that's why I put you in the "paranoid" category. If I had a valid suspicion,  I probably would have read a little better and come up with an actual read.

[Elieson]

1 hour ago, Bartozio said:

Alright guys, I have something to share regarding last night.

My role is a tracker, and I followed Marth last night to find him targeting Shinori. This likely means Marth is the one who killed Shinori for us last night.
Now normally this would just mean Marth is a vig who did his job well, but there's a problem: Marth didn't think Shinori was scum!

If Marth was town, I'm pretty sure he would have killed either Sully or Kirsche instead, as those were his actual scum reads. Of course, he may have thought Shinori was the third scum member after the Baldrick flip, but I doubt he would shoot the scumread he was the least certain of. The logical conclusion is thus that Marth is actually a serial killer, who just happened to hit scum. (Sorry Refa, I guess my sense for balance in this game really does suck...)

##Vote: Marth

Nice tips; i'll trust what you said here as accurate information since i'm still behind

33 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Dude, I am not a serial killer lol. Not sure what to think of that claim with that logic but I don't feel like claiming just because some guy thinks that tracking a person on to a mafia member is a guilty.

Make it easy for us though, there's clearly going to be a lynch today between you and Barto now that there's info on the table.

[SullyMcGully]

Wait, so what does a Serial Killer do that a vigilante doesn't? Do they kill at random or something? Can they kill again?

[Elieson]

Just now, SullyMcGully said:

Wait, so what does a Serial Killer do that a vigilante doesn't? Do they kill at random or something? Can they kill again?

Typically, a SK can act far more often/permanently compared to a Vig

 

They're also aligned with themselves (as opposed to town/mafia) and often have a secondary role, as some kind of buff

[Bluedoom]

I'll get to reads in a while but there is no 1v1 between Bart and I, Eli, stop pushing it like that.

[Elieson]

4 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

there is no 1v1 between Bart and I

Barto> I'm Tracker and caught you visiting the guy who just died
Marth> The above statement is untrue

 

You can't actually expect people not to pick a side on this one bro

[SullyMcGully]

So wait a second: if an SK isn't for town or mafia, what's their goal? Try to be the last one alive? Does town have to kill SKs as well as scum in order to officially win the game? 

I suppose if there's an additional non-town member in this game, that decreases the chance that there are more than three mafioso... provided Bart is telling the truth.

My upcoming NK analysis is going to be a bit more interesting now...

[Elieson]

15 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

So wait a second: if an SK isn't for town or mafia, what's their goal? Try to be the last one alive? Does town have to kill SKs as well as scum in order to officially win the game? 

 

This. Ergo, yea, they're a threat to all alignments, hence the buffs that they usually get as a consolidated faction

[SullyMcGully]

Okay. That's kinda scary.

@Bartozio: who did you follow on night 1?

[Bartozio]

Refa. I figured that if he was scum he was without a doubt the person to execute the kill that night. He didn't target prims though. (Not going to say whether he actually targeted someone else or not, because I don't want scum to know if Refa has a power role or not).

[Percivalé]

vigs don't have to push their scum reads if they can kill them anyway

if marth is an sk why was there only one kill d1

[Percivalé]

I mean it's kinda weird that marth won't claim but typically if a vig thinks someone is scum they don't have to push a lynch on them if they can just kill them at night