Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Percivalé]

I really think we should focus on killing scum today instead of hunt for an itp that might not exist

[SullyMcGully]

Sully’s NKA (Night-Kill Analysis):

Last night, three players died. These were Town Interrogator Mackc2, hidden Town Vanilla PaperBlade, and Mafia Janitor Shinori. I’ll begin my analysis with Shinori.
Shinori died under mysterious circumstances last night. According to Bartozio, Marth targeted Shinori last night, suggesting that it may have been Marth’s actions that brought about Shinori’s demise. However, Marth showed very little suspicion concerning Shinori before last night, so if Marth killed Shinori, it was potentially as a serial killer. Marth has so far denied all accusations.

@elieson: I believe it would be a mistake to think that Marth and Bartozio’s claims are incompatible. Suppose Marth is a town cop who investigated Shinori last night not knowing Shinori would be dead the next morning. This would make some sense, as Marth might’ve wanted to confirm one of his townreads. Bartozio would see that as Marth targeting Shinori, and when Shinori turned up dead, it would seem suspicious. However, there still is a fair chance that one or both of them could be lying. Anyway, it would be pointless for me to defend Marth before he even defends himself.

Now for Mackc2 and his hidden pal, PaperBlade. They were an obvious target. So obvious that Mack himself asked for protection tonight. He apparently didn’t get it. Why is this? Here are some potential scenarios:
1)    There is no town doctor/jailer in this game.
2)    The town doctor/jailer’s protection powers only work once, or on certain nights.
3)    The town doctor/jailer was Prims, who died without a card flip.
4)    The town doctor/jailer did not want to protect Mack/PB for whatever reason.

Of all of the above reasons, I believe 2 and 3 are the most likely. In the Kemono Friends game, Mack, as a jailer, could only use his powers on even-numbered nights. Maybe the protection agent in this game can only act on odd nights, or can only act once. Prims acted defensive about revealing his role on D1, so maybe he was a doctor who wanted to stay hidden. It would explain why One-Shot Mafia Janitor Shinori hid Prims card flip; so that town would go on believing there was still a live protection agent out there. This would also explain why scum went after Mack tonight instead of a less obvious target; they knew that the doctor/jailer who would most likely have protected him was dead.

Also worth noting is that if Marth is an SK, he might’ve been able to kill somebody N1. The fact that he didn’t means that either:
1)    He’s not an SK.
2)    He’s an SK, but his role did not allow him to kill anyone N1.
3)    He’s an SK, but whoever he tried to kill was being protected.

If Marth did not kill Shinori, then likeliness has it a Town Vigilante (or other SK) did. If it’s a vig, then they would be compelled to reveal their action before allowing a Marth lynch to go through, as we are running short of townies in this game and lynching another one could be near fatal if there is a 4-person scum team (on that subject, if Marth is an SK then the scum team is probably an ordinary three-person team because of balancing issues). Therefore, this Marth vote is fairly safe, unless there is another SK. 

##Unvote
##Vote: Magnificence Incarnate

The actual reasoning for this vote is simple. I am thoroughly unsatisfied with Marth’s reaction to Bartozio’s accusation so far, and I want to hear a better defense.

Analysis end.

[Percivalé]

that does not help my scum read on you, sully

by the way if sully flips scum elie is scum. if sully doesn't flip scum then I don't even fucking know

[Percivalé]

that real post I was talking about will come after work I'm just posting real-time for lack of time and no lack of laziness 

[Bluedoom]

Voting me is dumb because it is based off of the assumption that an SK exists. If an SK doesn't exist then you're basically signing up for a mislynch here. Heck even if an SK existed Bart's result would not  prove that I have to be an SK. Like what is this logic even.

[Bluedoom]

RIght I'm going to try to keep this concise:

Town:
BBM(Reasons stated earlier in the thread but I also feel he's more active in the discussion than his scum!self. But yeah, BBscuM doesn't defend Prims from a turbo at deadline).

Via(As much as the OMGUS was frustrating to look at he's probably town just because he gets very paranoid as town about getting lynched. As non-town he just accepts his fate.)

Null

Sully: I'm not able to pin why this slot should be scum tbh. I did have an issue with a spike in competence but there's a lot of reads in his posts that I find hard to disagree with. I didn't spend a lot of time reading this player because playing mafia without ISOs is hard.

Bartozio: I think Bartozio's main problem in mafia games is his activity, or maybe its the timezone. But he is always late to the party. So that does show in his reads D2, I wouldn't fault him for that. The biggest association I can see is his vote and unvote of Shinori D1 only to go back to the Ken wagon. The only other issue here is: the case on me is full of holes, and full of assumptions that would lead the town to a loss honestly. Like, thinking of me as the SK is as it is a stretch, but there is no reason to assume that an SK exists? The case feels more like you want me to be anti-town which feels really off to me, but I wouldn't want to lynch a  tracker claim today, honestly.

Refa: Refa's play as it is isn't scummy, but through associations I have my doubts. First off, his content really died after Mack claimed. Now I get that  because I too slacked of D2 hrnn I felt that Baldrick had to be scum, but the hitch here is that he doesn't really push for reads anywhere and there are a lot of counterarguments to other reads which ddoesn't push the lynch anywhere? He says he has second doubts about the Baldrick lynch but he doesn't go out of the way to find an alternative; he nullread kirsche yesterday so the vote on kirsche now feels a little convenient; he even nullreads Shinori based off of defending against people he is scumreading which isn't great, but he only considers Shinori to be scum if Baldy's scum so it feels like he is setting up for propping Shinori up here, he just isn't calling it yet. I'm unsure if this would be a good lynch today because tbh I always feel hesitant about voting Refa because his game generally feels so townie to me.

Scum:

Elieson: Well pushing Bart and me as a 1v1 feels like scum logic lining up lynches, but I'll give him time to re-read. I felt like Mich was town before the sub-out so I want to see what Eli's thoughts are.

kirsche:I feel like two nights in a row typing huge wall posts about people who die feels convenient. Also the sully post doesn't make sense, I agree with BBM here. You pose a question about how Sully could be coached. The thing is, how is this relevant to your scumread? You spent the entire post justifying a Sully vote so it feels weird that you would play devil's advocate with yourself in the same post.

 

[Bluedoom]

oh yeah I had typed up most of that wall post before the Sully vote; I honestly don't know what to make of this anymore but I'm going to sleep, too tired.

[Percivalé]

marth considering scum knows now that you have a power role I think you could probably just claim anyway if you're not sk

[Elieson]

2 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Dude, I am not a serial killer lol. Not sure what to think of that claim with that logic but I don't feel like claiming just because some guy thinks that tracking a person on to a mafia member is a guilty.

I read this as you claimed to having neither visited Shinori nor claimed a killing role yourself, looking hyper incriminating, because then you're calling barto a liar. If you're saying that "Yea, I visited shinori but I'm not saying what I did" then I'm not pushing a 1v1 on that. I'd push it on the former, not the latter.

 

Can you confirm/deny what I underlined above at least?

[Bluedoom]

Yeah fuck it

I'm a lightning rod

[Elieson]

19 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

@elieson: I believe it would be a mistake to think that Marth and Bartozio’s claims are incompatible. Suppose Marth is a town cop who investigated Shinori last night not knowing Shinori would be dead the next morning. This would make some sense, as Marth might’ve wanted to confirm one of his townreads. Bartozio would see that as Marth targeting Shinori, and when Shinori turned up dead, it would seem suspicious.

Or, there could be a page 36 and this could be in there. Yea

[Elieson]

1 minute ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Yeah fuck it

I'm a lightning rod

wat

>tracker saw you visit shinori

>>would have to mean that for the tracker to not be bothered by a potential redirection, that they targetted you

>>>wait how did he see you visit shinori if you're claiming l-rod

[Bluedoom]

I idled N1 because I didn't want to draw the night kill to myself and I didn't really trust anyone tbh.

N2 I targeted Shinori because I got demotivated after the Baldlynch and thought that I might've been wrong about my reads. The only thing I've confirmed is that Shinori wasn't on he kill N2.

[SullyMcGully]

Wait, Lightning Rod is a role? That wasn't a metaphor?

[Bluedoom]

Lightning Rod makes my target target me with all of their actions so Bart's claim holds here.

[Percivalé]

I have my reason for considering a sully/mich scumteam and this just makes me feel like it's true. if kirsche isn't scum

[Percivalé]

so I really would prefer we lynch kirsche or sully today 

[Elieson]

guh

 

ok

2 minutes ago, Quote said:

so I really would prefer we lynch kirsche or sully today 

can you catch me up on kirsche? i see sully trying and i sorta see the hole they're digging out of but i don't see anything incriminating on kirsche yet

[Zkirsche]

fuck fuck FUCK new SF seriously. Thanks for erasing my post and then saving the post I made previously. Another hour down the drain playing this game. Last time I'm playing NOC here I think, see you in OC. Here's a condensed version of some of the points I was going to make.

Refa and BBM going on and on about how they would have reread sooner or read more people is terrible. Confirmation phase started less than 12 hours after I signed up and I didn't really want to delay the game because I'd feel guilty after everyone has their role pms anyway. I didn't have time to read Baldrick's or Bart's cases and talk about everything I wanted to talk about. Prims was scummy and I just barely had enough time to post that and read through everyone else I was distracted with (BBM and Ken, for instance). As for D2, Refa straight up ignores where I said that I couldn't reread sooner because it was way too late for me when I could get on to get a disconnect in my actions.

It wasn't just that Prims was a better player but that it wasn't what I expected from him after Rein's game.

Shinori not elaborating his read on Sully is incriminating because while it's easy to be dismissive of people who everyone is town reading (e.g. Refa), Sully was/is a big lynch target and if Sully flipped scum and Shinori committed to the town read it looks bad on him. If Sully is town then Shinori is more likely to fake a case on him to seem more active and potentially buddy up to those already pushing him. I feel like you should know this Refa.

Regardless, what is the scum intent behind my actions here? Why, as scum, would I not want to reread and get better reads as soon as possible if I could?

I have my reservations about the Sully vote but PoE, interactions and their vote play makes them the most likely scum in my eyes. Me asking Refa/PB about where Sully seems coached isn't scummy when I shed doubts on the argument and its kinda weird that you call it out. You undermine my read with "you should reread Sully again" when you haven't really shown why my points are wrong or not enough to warrant lynching. This is scummy because you are subtlely gonna make people like me less even though you haven't fully presented my arguments or picked them apart. I'll reread Sully if I think my impressions of him are wrong or outdated, so are either of these true?

Quote

kirsche:I feel like two nights in a row typing huge wall posts about people who die feels convenient. Also the sully post doesn't make sense, I agree with BBM here. You pose a question about how Sully could be coached. The thing is, how is this relevant to your scumread? You spent the entire post justifying a Sully vote so it feels weird that you would play devil's advocate with yourself in the same post.

If you think I'm scum then do you think I knew my scumbuddy Shinori was going to die and wrote that wallpost anyway? How is it convenient for me as scum that my main scumreads die and I am left with very little to push and present?

The question is relevant because PB, Refa and now you all think/thought that he is being coached but I didn't see how. I am obviosuly going to be interested in seeing every perspective on Sully and also help me decide for myself that he is scum. I'm not 100% locked into it so of course I'm going to see every angle: if he seemed coached then I am less likely to change my mind later potentially. The only argument presented to me is the sudden confidence and posting a lot, which is not necessarily competance imo.

Lightning rod in a game of vanillas is odd and at the start of the phase you acted kinda surprised that Shinori flipped scum so why would you target him? I also don't see how not trusting anyone is a reason for idling N1, so if you could explain that that would be nice.

Why would Scum!BBM not defend Prims from a turbo when turbos are generally seen as bad plays? Felt really easy to defend Prims there tbh when he wasn't really scumreading Prims beforehand.

Sully you have a knack for sheeping things I didn't say. I thought most of the game was suspecting Shinori or had him in scumteams. In fact BBM spent a lot of the time half assing and waffling on Shinori, suspecting him but not committing to the lynch and always justifying everything he found Shinori suspicious for after he said it. I'm pretty sure he even acknowledged it and said that his read on Shinori was mostly gut at one point. I'll have to read his D2 though.

Sully also 180d on me now that public opinion is against me so OMGUS there. He also wisely kept his options open by effectively scumreading 4 out of 6 people with the only two townreads being towards people most weren't even considering for a lynch (BBM and Marth). The BBM one especially I think is contrived (this isn't scummy in of itself: newbs make mistakes as both town and scum) so it could easily be about a scumbuddy.

Could easily see BBM/Sully as scumbuddies with Shinori. Next most likely is Bart and then Mich, Bart's interactions with Shinori are much worse but I'm not sure scum!tracker would go after SK after losing a buddy? Bart targetting Refa N1 also makes very little sense as while he would have been the mafia member put onto the scumkill, you have to be paranoid about him being mafia in the first place to think to target him, so Bart what made you think that?

[Zkirsche]

BBM is also seeming very confident for someone who seemed dejected at the idea of Baldrick being town on D2.

[BBM]

this Marth thing is stupid; I'm a bit low on time because I want to make a detailed response to kirsche so I didn't read all the posts but I don't need to; just because he was tracked visiting Shinori doesn't mean he was the only one to target Shinori. this isn't a guilty. also even if SK!Marth thought that he was town, Shinori had a lot of suspicion on him and wouldn't have been a good night-kill target. Marth being tracked to Bartozio actually increases the odds he is town because there aren't a lot of mafia roles that target their scumbuddies and few make sense in this setup.

Sully your logic is bad. voting Marth just because the vig would step in to save them isn't smart because it outs another town PR. we've probably outed two town PRs over this for no reason, outing a third would be worse.

Elie use your townie interactions with flipped scum to reread the thread and produce actual content please because with the Bartozio claim the person who is more likely to be scum is you, not Marth

kirsche response coming next post

[Percivalé]

itp hunting over hunting scum is scummy btw also because it makes you look protown without having to actually hunt scum

[SullyMcGully]

##Unvote

##Vote: kirsche

So suddenly saying that everything everyone else thinks is suddenly wrong or suspicious seems like desperate scum to me. Especially BBM: since when were you suspicious of him? That came out of nowhere. Maybe you've mentioned him somewhere and I haven't noticed, but the last time you cased BBM was D1.

I honestly think BBM's townplay is pretty good.. I didn't see his Shinori stance as being that waffling, waffling was to be expected dealing with Shinori. BBM never really let up pressure, despite having few strong points against Shinori he had points against Shinori at times when mafia could have easily chosen other targets. 

And of course I 180'd on you. I My townread on you was strong because you were strongly anti-Baldrick and my suspicion of Baldrick was very strong. I figured when Baldrick flipped scum, I'd be able to prove your innocence based off of that. Now, that all means nothing, and I must re-evaluate things. 

 

[SullyMcGully]

What does ITP stand for? 

[BBM]

@kirsche- okay I'll take at face value that you didn't have time to reread, but I don't know what the point of talking randomly about confirmation phase is, and the Prims meta thing based on an OC game is still bad, and asking what the scum intent in not wanting to reread the thread is ??? obviously that's scummy; why WOULD you as scum want to reread the thread and "improve your opinions" when your opinions are all fake anyways?

but the scumread portion of kirsche's post is what is really scummy though because it's full of saying "these are bad reasons for townreading BBM" and "I could easily see BBM being scum" while barely even talking about what I've done that's actually scummy, other than asking you to reread Sully. That part is super contrived because the entire reason I didn't "pick apart" your Sully case was that you barely even had one. Half your Sully vote is asking other people for their opinions on Sully and stuff, and that's fine! It's obvious that you entered the day phase planning on voting Shinori and the Sully stuff was supposed to be a secondary push, so it's perfectly okay that your Sully case isn't fully fleshed yet, and that you were asking people for other perspectives but that also means it's perfectly okay for me to ask you to reread Sully and flesh it out. Your entire push against me reads heavily like an attempt to avoid getting PoE'd down.

The other half of the Sully vote is Shinori interactions (which I agree with, if not as strongly as you do) and talking about how Sully is super jumpy and could be opportunistic newbscum. I did pick that last part apart by pointing out that when Bartozio made this same point about Sully being jumpy (albeit with a slightly different explanation of scum intent) you disagreed with it.

anyways I'm out of time so I'll continue this after