We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Fable]

4 minutes ago, Beru said:

that cop check from vi would have been extremely useful rn

I'm the saddest gd panda rn you don't even know. 

[Fable]

I'm lynching mak aorn but I wanna hear walrein's target before I do anything. 

Evan is off the table for me. 

[Makaze]

I wasn't expecting phase start until evening. Huh.

I didn't get any PM so not sure what Kill did, but I didn't get quicktopic. @Iris @SB. ?

I made a post soon after phase end, but I edited it out because I meant to post in PM instead of thread. I will post it in case anyone saw it because it wouldn't be fair to edit it after posting (unfair information).

I will read up on longer posts after posting and respond, but please read my thoughts before jumping.

 

[Makaze]

Going to respond to stuff I couldn't at EoD. (This post is being written right after the EoD.)

21 hours ago, Makaze said:

It also seems like Refa is distancing himself from this Snike lynch. He has been saying stuff like "idk I just think Snike is town" and has been lowkey pushing on Athena and now Kirsche, despite them having actual reasons to be clear. It's weird. A possible world that needs reconsidered is one where Kaoz empowered Refa, and Refa is either ITP or scum.

I'm going to work now. I'll have two fifteen minute breaks and an hour lunch at 6PM EST, which is pretty much EOD, but I'll try to comment when I can.

I am still considering a possible world where Refa is the ITP, not where he is Mafia.

This is a very unlikely world, but we have to consider it because Walrein  mechanically cannot be telling the truth without Kaoz empowering his killer.

21 hours ago, Fable said:

I think makaze has suspected like 75% of the living players at some point and it's getting a little silly. 

Also I voted him because I don't think tunneling eclipse and then continuing to do it after the junko and shinori flips was reasonable. 

I'm not sure where this is coming from. There have been situations where I have considered the possibility of many people being Mafia, but I have only pushed what I consider the most likely scenario at every moment.

eclipse I considered a case of her having bad cases. I expected better from her, and I wanted to be right because I thought be awesome if I caught her. After the lynch, I stayed on her because Kirsche did not make sense after the Junko lynch and I was tunneling, but I slowly came out of it when I started ISOing everyone I hadn't yet to try and find out who made sense in her scumteam. JB hadn't flipped either, so I wasn't aware of all of the mafia going for an eclipse wagon. When no one made sense on an eclipse scumteam, I decided she couldn't be Mafia, and Baldrick's content was a significant improvement. Then I considered a Kirsche world, and eventually read Sully. Sully looked like a perfect fit for the scum team and his tone didn't seem that great so I decided he was the person I was missing. His self-vote and Sully/Arcanite defending each other looked like caught scum and I just wrote them off until the flip happened. Then I actually read what was said, and decided Sully didn't make sense as Mafia.

Snike I have had mixed feelings since mid-day 3 when he cased Mack and had strange defenses and behavior. You can see where I pushed him and tried to get him to accept that Mack was town but was town reading him. Then I said some of his posts pinged me as gas lighting, but overall, I was still townreading. This didn't change until he sheeped me on Sully with little prodding. While I was reconsidering Sully after the Arcanite flip I read Snike and all of the stuff I had suspected against Sully applied to Snike, plus all of the weird tonal things that had been pinging me from Day 3. He sheeped my Sully case very easily and almost purely based on Sully claiming watcher. It looked very bad at the time.

Today I cased Walrein because I had been giving them a tone read and had not ISO'd them since my eclipse wagon. When I did ISO them, their associatives looked very bad, and I did not see any reason not to case them. Worse, their tone did match their scum game (brought up by Refa iirc).

When Walrein claimed, I thoroughly vetted their argument and tried to find out if anyone else had been roleblocked to counter them. It looked like their claim is probably right, because no one else makes much sense, except for Eury or BBM (Who are dead). The main point against Walrein was that their claim to have motivated Mack didn't make sense with Kaoz dying. Then Walrein conveniently said that they had a mod error and that their motivation was redirected to Mack the night that Kaoz died. That still didn't make sense with Kaoz dying, and meant that Kaoz had to have empowered his killer. We analyzed who that could have been, and Kill seemed the most logical based on Kaoz's ISO.

Then Kill defended himself and I bought his defense.

That leaves a world where either:

a) Walrein is lying
b) Kaoz motivated someone other than Kill
c) One of the non-town is Strong-willed

When Refa did something that pinged me (asking me to make his case for him after he just did a quotewall on the player), I considered if it was possible that he was empowered and was playing me. I found out there was nothing stopping it, other than Refa playing perfectly up to now. So I pushed him to see what would happen. Also was convinced we were close to hammer because of Snike's comment.

I never suspected Athena, Mack, Fable, via, or Refa until I thought about how weird it was that he had just done a quote wall but asked me to find out how Shinori reacted to the flips. I'm not suspecting Refa now after the way he responded to me, but I am still considering it possible if Walrein is not lying. This level of indignation seems natural, and I buy his argument that it was about time instead of playing me. It's far more likely that Walrein is lying.

That leaves the simplest solution, which is that Walrein is lying, because none of the possible empower targets make sense.

Even if you have a problem with my actions or don't like what I'm saying, I have a hard time believing you don't think I have a progression that makes sense.

19 hours ago, Omega. said:

Refa is never a wolf. He switched from you to Junko D1 to kill the wolf singlehandedly when he didn't have to.

What are you doing right now?

This is a bad argument whether Refa is town or not, because this is an optimal bus strategy if you want to become deep. It's WIFOM at best. That said, I don't think it's relevant if Refa is ITP (not Mafia).

19 hours ago, Beru said:

##vote Makaze

hue huehu

 

 

19 hours ago, Beru said:

you not in the village? ?

Why aren't you taking this seriously?

18 hours ago, Makaze said:

@Walrein I see you reading.

What are you thinking?

Walrein read throughout the end of phase and I didn't see a single comment or case. He let us try to solve his puzzle without offering his own speculation, and I don't think town Walrein does that.

Walrein has to be lying.

18 hours ago, Fable said:

Is it? Because my problem is....

"I'm only not voting snike cuz I don't wanna hammer" 

but then you're voting refa  because you think he's acting like he already knows snike is gonna flip V and I struggle to figure out a way you can legitimately think snike is gonna flip wolf and that refa is a wolf with TMI that snike is V. That makes absolutely zero sense and your not even pushing it as a purely wolf!refa you're partly doing as "Refa doesn't want to lynch snike cuz he's 3p which is super ??? and doesn't seem like a real thought. 

I'm voting Refa because I think it's possible I'm wrong and just sitting on it isn't going to make evidence happen.

18 hours ago, Refa said:

Then just say that.  It's super obnoxious when you're like "his case is shit" without pointing to why you disagree.

Alette (replacing Fenrir Aesir (replacing Anime27Arts))- Boron, 1x Dayvig
Via- Prims, Gets a role if guesses all of the characters correctly
Makaze (replacing zeus_112)- Omega, ???
Beru (SullyMcGully (replacing Elieson))- Rapier, Lazy Watcher
Fable- Weapons, Role Bomb
Baldrick (replacing eclipse)- Eclipse, Mayor
Omega (replacing Marth)- Jaybee, Self Watcher/Delayer
athena_57- Snike, Co-Networker
Walrein- Via, Motivator
SatsumaFSoySoy + Snike (replacing Polydeuces)- Rein/Juliette, Role Miller
EvanManManMan (replacing (Lord Gaius (replacing Eärendil))- Paperblade, Bookie
Killthestory (replacing Zkirsche)- Gaius, Co-Networker

This is where my reads are at.

@Makaze Who is scum? You're basically clearing everyone except Snike.

I didn't read Shinori's ISO...I didn't even have time to fully read over the slot's ISO, let alone Shinori's.

I'm not distancing myself from the lynch, I've said that it's a mislynch.  I have not been lowkey pushing them, I have been HIGHKEY pushing them because I don't want him lynched.  No one has managed to come up with a convincing case on Snike other than "well all of my friends are town, so this guy with his CLEARLY scummy role must be scum" and I'm pretty sure he'll flip town.  Kaoz empowering me wouldn't make a difference, but that'll be obvious soon (depending on flip/claim).  This is so dumb, like "wow how did Refa know Snike was town?" when he flips.

Maybe.  I agree that his reads progression on you read as natural, it's just that I get that sense from like EVERY living player besides Walrein and it's like "this doesn't mean anything to me".  You said you were super confident that he's town right?  How sure were you on that?

I don't want to disclose that for reasons.  Not trying to be cagey or anything, I just legitimately think you should be looking at other people.  Having just been pushed by him for ??? reasons, it's super frustrating but if he's scum then this is some fucked up game.

Who would you scumread assuming Makaze is town?

Walrein has to be lying. He has to be Mafia from my POV.

I accept your argument about the Shinori stuff. I'd prefer if you actually made cases yourself though. It's less tilting.

17 hours ago, Fable said:

Yeah but then you said snike might be the last wolf who wants to get that over with and it'd be nice if that were true and I don't think his role fits the role set from what we've seen so far so there's a chance he's a wolf.

I just find mak's posts way shadier though.  

 

17 hours ago, Fable said:

The problem is the logic for wolf reading both doesn't make any sense. 

You can't think snike is a wolf AND think Refa is a wolf with too much TMI that snike will flip V. 

These two posts show exactly what I'm doing. I am considering possible worlds where my PoE is wrong, and I am pushing for a lynch that I think is the most likely while not abandoning any other worlds. Refa's post pinging me would never have made it into the open if I never pushed it, and I'd prefer to bring it up when it happens than retroactively say "I was pinged by Refa on Day 4 but didn't say anything". That's not likely to convince anyone, undermines the reality, and I might not be alive by then.

Try to consider that I am weighing possibilities when you are doing it yourself.

[Makaze]

Continuing from the last post:

I have mapped out every option I see and want people to comment on the mechanics.

Walrein claimed Motivator. He claimed to have motivated Mack. After we speculated and continued to case him because it doesn't make sense for Mack not to save Kaoz, he said there was a mod error, and his N3 action got redirect to Mack. If this is true, it means that Kaoz's killer went through Mack's martyr, and Kaoz empowered them.

I see these options, but I let me know if I'm missing any. 

1. Walrein is lying about motivating Mack, and they are Mafia.

2. Walrein motivated Mack, but is lying about the mod error, and they are Mafia.

3. Walrein is not lying, and Kaoz empowered who killed him. Walrein could not be Mafia in this scenario (because motivating a jailer is never a good option for Mafia, period).

I do not see how anyone can see this as irrelevant when Walrein lying or telling the truth gives us a mechanical reason to suspect him, or narrow the PoE down to people Kaoz was townreading.

I also have some other speculations.

1. If Walrein is lying, then they probably motivated Shinori N1 and could not do it N2. This would probably mean that on top of Kaoz getting an item on N2, someone else probably got one too. That person is probably Mafia (and based on what Mafia expected, they would not have given it to JB. Therefore, he would have given it to Walrein in this scenario.) They could have motivated JB N2, but JB was a Rogue + Janitor and was probably going to get lynched, so this would be sub-optimal after Junko died. Therefore, it makes sense for Walrein to motivate Mack, which would ensure they have a chance to kill a protection role if not who they target. This would also lend Walrein incredible towncred when he claimed. I think this is the optimal move for MafiaMotivator!Walrein.

2. If Walrein is telling the truth, then Kaoz probably empowered his strongest townread, if not the person he jailed as someone said. If Walrein is Mafia AND is telling the truth (I think this makes no sense), then he empowered Walrein. I don't see where this read would have come from, so that seems unlikely.

Therefore, I have the following PoE:

1. If Walrein flips town, then anyone Kaoz was townreading -- and his jail target -- have to be suspects. I genuinely have no idea who would be Mafia, and I believe everyone Kaoz mentions is town, so I have no reason to think this is plausible.

2. If Walrein flips Mafia, then he is the only Mafia, because there is no way the scum team has Shinori's strongman, a roleblocker, a rogue+janitor, AND a motivator, on top of something else. It's not happening.

3. If Walrein flips Mafia and there is another Mafia, then I am out of ideas. There is no way I can see Omega bussing Walrein as scum/scum, and I think everyone else looks good.

In every case, lynching Walrein makes the most sense to me because it helps significantly narrow down the worlds where what is happening makes sense. It offers a mechanical reason to clear all of Kaoz's scum reads, and also lowers the PoE to people he might have empowered. That's way more helpful than subjective opinions.

Important notes from this:

Kaoz's empowerment is the key to this because it is impossible for any of Kaoz's scumreads to be mafia if Walrein is not lying. Kaoz being hijacked could only happen if someone had another Hijack item, which would require Walrein lying, and even before that, Hijacking Kaoz to the shooter would stop them from shooting. Someone else having an Empower item requires the same. There's no mechanical way around it.

--Side note: Actually, I just thought of one. If Walrein did get a Hijack item, they could have hijacked both the jail and the empower to themselves, and they would be protected but still be able to shoot and motivate. This would also make the mod error impossible, but their target would be a lie anyway, so that's moot. I think it is actually very reasonable, and it is the perfect strategy if Walrein is a Mafia Motivator. I can definitely see a world where Walrein motivates Shinori, and they concoct this plan to give both Walrein and Kaoz an item, a Hijack to Walrein and an Empower to Kaoz. This would appear to be a town-motivate choice, but if Walrein has a hijack and Kaoz has an empower, then they can gain the protection without being roleblocked, protecting them from the ITP and ensuring their kill succeeds. It's the perfect plan. Could also use this on JB, the logic is the same. (I would have done this if I was them.) I think giving the empower to Kaoz makes a lot more sense if this is the reason.

Hard clears in a Walrein as town world:

Kaoz could not have empowered Lord Giaus because he was scum reading him. Therefore, EvanManManMan cannot be Mafia if Walrein is telling the truth. Additionally, nothing about the EoD would have changed this, so it's just not happening.

Kaoz could not have empowered Sully because a) Sully's power is super weak and b) He was scumreading Sully at the end of the Day. Therefore, Beru cannot be mafia if Walrein is telling the truth. Even if the Arcanite flip did change Kaoz's mind, I think this empower is unlikely compared to empowering Mack, a confirmed player with a much stronger pro-town power.

For anyone who is suspecting Evan, I want you to consider this and think about how what you're saying contradicts Walrein's claim. There is no way that Kaoz would empower Lord Gaius after what he said, even if he did change his mind about Sully and somehow overlooked the incredibly useless role (which would probably not even be affected by empowerment).

Finally, Walrein lying makes Walrein Mafia, and there is no way around that.

It comes down to: Do you think Walrein is lying? Why or why not?

The most likely scenario (in my opinion):

Kaoz always empowers Mack, and there is no reason not to do that. His power is confirmed and if he draws the NK, even from an ITP, it would be no loss to Kaoz even if he did scumread Mack (of which there is no evidence).

Mack did not try to save Kaoz, but picked who he saw as the most likely night targets instead of the obvious ones. He succeeded on one of them. My bias says me, because I was consensus town and killing me would make Sully look guilty, but it could have been Baldrick too.

Walrein is the Mafia and lied about most of their actions. They did motivate Mack, but are lying about the mod error. They are doing everything to make it sound like there is nothing against them, which is why the mod error was so convenient, and yet so problem causing.

If you want to lynch someone else, how do you explain how that person killed Kaoz if Walrein is not lying?

[Makaze]

Confirmed no QT. So not sure what happened.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

FWIW, I'd lynch Walrein/Blitz before Evan just cuz everybody keeps saying Evan's V. I don't agree with the V reads at all, but at least he can shoot Makaze tonight. That said, Blitz a good player so I'm willing to hear what he says.

[Makaze]

Wait a minute, where is this Walrein as Blitz thing coming from?

How did Blitz end up in this game?

[Beru]

does omega know I have an unfavourable opinion of nightwalls

[Beru]

... does Makaze know I have an unfavourable opinion of nightwalls

[Fable]

1 minute ago, Beru said:

... does Makaze know I have an unfavourable opinion of nightwalls

idk what you're talking about nightwalls always mean purity :p

[Makaze]

I don't, but I don't think it matters when I wanted to get my thoughts out anyway. If you think my mechanics are ingenuine, I'm not sure what to say in response to that.

I think it would have very hard to post that after the phase started considering altogether it took me about two hours to write both of them, so you'd have to pick your battles and decide whether you'd like me to defend myself the whole phase or actually express my argument.

[Beru]

...

the point is that nightwalls mean you're confident in not dying because you know you're able to post it (but... I was watching you because you told me to watch you... which means they would have to kill me first)

(omega tho)

[Makaze]

Well, that explains the Blitz thing.

2 hours ago, EvanManManMan said:

Good news: I correctly bet Via

Bad news: I wasn't motivated

Even if we assume Blitz sub in was before there was something submitted, this looks extremely bad and I think Walrein is unequivocally the lynch option.

1 hour ago, Beru said:

Athena and vi visited Makaze 

also I was put in a chat with vi but rest in pepperonis

How does this make sense? Athena is a networker, so how could Athena have visited me and you have been given a chat with Via at the same time?

[Beru]

5 minutes ago, Fable said:

idk what you're talking about nightwalls always mean purity :p

?

[Makaze]

Just now, Beru said:

...

the point is that nightwalls mean you're confident in not dying because you know you're able to post it (but... I was watching you because you told me to watch you... which means they would have to kill me first)

(omega tho)

There is another reason for this. You'll see why when I die.

Also, I seriously doubt that Mafia would night kill me after my mislynch was so close to happening.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Makaze, agree to be killed in one form or another.

[Beru]

Just now, Makaze said:

Well, that explains the Blitz thing.

Even if we assume Blitz sub in was before there was something submitted, this looks extremely bad and I think Walrein is unequivocally the lynch option.

How does this make sense? Athena is a networker, so how could Athena have visited me and you have been given a chat with Via at the same time?

it's my night result. lol

unless I saw Athena visiting vi visiting you, because it could be expanded brain watcher 

or Athena is lying :3c

[Makaze]

Just now, Omega. said:

Makaze, agree to be killed in one form or another.

I agree to be NK'd.

@EvanManManMan can vig me and I have no problem with it

If I am wrong about Walrein, I will become the lynch target anyway, and there are no more Mafia in my mind, so I have no problem with it.

Omega is the alternative because he is still the ITP.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

I was thinking of how Walrein played overnight, and was laughing my ass off at how he'd come in here, quote a villa posting badly, snipe them, then bounce. Lol.

Beru, you realize it was mechanically impossible for me to have died last night?

[Makaze]

Just now, Beru said:

it's my night result. lol

unless I saw Athena visiting vi visiting you, because it could be expanded brain watcher 

or Athena is lying :3c

Ask the mods if that's what happened

I think that if Athena was visiting me and he was lying, I would be dead because he would be Mafia. I don't see how this makes sense.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

I agree to be NK'd.

@EvanManManMan can vig me and I have no problem with it

If I am wrong about Walrein, I will become the lynch target anyway, and there are no more Mafia in my mind, so I have no problem with it.

Omega is the alternative because he is still the ITP.

Bolded: For the lynch, not the NK. But either is fine, if village still isn't willing to lynch him then it's fine if he dies on a delay.

[Makaze]

We have also hard confirmed Athena's power, and he needs to claim who he targeted with his QT night action. I seriously doubt Beru would lie about this, but one of them has to be. My first guess would be Beru is lying about the quicktopic, because they would not get a quicktopic with a dead person, but I am willing to consider this world (when I first tabbed SB and Iris about my QT, they told me they couldn't confirm whether I would get a quicktopic with a dead person or not until a role that does that had flipped.)

@athena_57

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

FWIW, I'd prefer to be shot than killed so I can go out like the G that I am.

I'm glad there was only 1 NK last night. I hated that Snike lynch.

Let's see what Blitz/Evan/Refa want to do; I'm probably down with whatever Refa says regardless of alignment.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

FWIW, I'd prefer to be shot than killed so I can go out like the G that I am.

I'm glad there was only 1 NK last night. I hated that Snike lynch.

Let's see what Blitz/Evan/Refa want to do; I'm probably down with whatever Refa says regardless of alignment.

This post is fake AF. I just simply don't buy the second line. "I hated that Snike lynch" has nothing to do with the previous comment.