Training Mafia 3.0: Advanced - GAMEOVER

[Iris]

oop

Edited June 24, 2018 by Iris

[Bartozio]

Not gonna bother quoting people, since most of the game seems to have asked this:

I said I was inclined to just lynch Zeo, Fable and Evan because it felt like Zeo was setting up reasons to lynch a towny after a scum lynch. So, I thought he was either planning to lynch town!Makaze after a scum Fable and Evan flip, or town!Evan after a scum!Fable flip. Thus me thinking just lynch until we hit town. This was not a thought out plan and me thinking "yeah, this is obviously the scum team", as I obviously wasn't really scumreading Evan.

I was wrong though, so there's that. That's a shame in a sense, because upon further thought, I realized setting up Makaze just in case both his buddies get lynched is way too little return to try and sell such a ridiculous reasoning, so he must have been preparig to keep going after town!Evan after a Fable flip....

Which uhm... new evidence suggests was not the case. So I guess Zeonth just derped. My bad.

I don't think Thinking on it more, Fable staying out of the thread actually doesn't make sense if both of his buddies (Zeo and Evan) have no thread pressence at all either, since I don't think he'd want to give up control like that. So... Fable and Zeo never scum together.

Considering that, Zeonth's first read post would be close to suicide as scum (his buddies flip clears town!Fable, who he otherwise was scumleaning on, and he has to push his buddy over Fable, and keep pushing him after a Fable flip). This makes... no sense. So Zeonth is town. Sorry for suspecting you mate.

Looking at how the wagon developed, I highly doubt Xnad is scum based off this flip, as he was the second vote on the wagon (well, technically that was Mak, but he unvoted), which basicly pulled an Evan wagon back into relevance. He had no need to do so, since he could have very easily kept voting me. If he hadn't done so, wagons would have likely stayed at me and Zeo I think, which would be pretty much ideal for scum. So... Xnad is town, and now I know for sure I was wrong early D1 as well.... neat.

Fable was the first vote on the Evan wagon, and he was very much an early driving force for it I think. He could have started there for towncred, not expecting it to pick up so well, but I also feel like he could have easily jumped back to voting me after he made that case regarding my Zeo vote.

I kind of doubt scum!Mack would still try to get me lynched and townread Evan when the guys at 5 votes and phase almost over. I really think he'd just cut his losses there.

Which leaves me with two people I've tonereading town all game and Rad. So I think this is a good start while I wrap my head around this PoE:

##Vote: @RADicate

[Iris]

Day 3: Automated Votals from #750 to #777

RADicate (1): Bartozio
Bartozio (3): athena_57, Junk, Fable
Not voting (5): EvanManManMan, Mackc2, RADicate, XnadrojX, Zeonth

Phase ends in 42h32m. Hammer at 6.

Vote history:

 

athena_57 (1): Bartozio

Bartozio (1): RADicate

Fable (1): Bartozio

Junk (1): Bartozio

<Beta v2.0.4>

Edited June 24, 2018 by Iris

[Athena_57]

Kapow, I'm back with a computer this time and ready to respond to... oh. Step it up people.

My list of current reads (before reading Bart's post above me, I was working on this when he posted and would rather not start over):

Comfortable townreads

Nadroj - Probably just town. Was starting to think whether I gave him too much credit for good tone, but like, the guy just seems honest.

Junk - As mentioned before, the way he named his scumteam yesterday felt unlikely to come from scum. Reads tonally town and way of solving seems, I don't know how to phrase it, unique/doesn't go along with threadflow but is independent? Something good in any case.

Zeo - Whilst scum!him coming in and bussing Evan is not impossible, him coming in bussing Evan AND in the process clearing (for himself) town!Falbe and town!Makaze is such a ballsy scumplay I voew it as practically impossible for him to be scum is Fable isn't, and even then I doubt it. Reads show depth of thought.

Dunno tbh

Fable - I want to townread him. I've wanted to townread him all game and I don't even know why. Evan flipping scum should be a good look, Bart flipping scum should look good as well. And yet there's this paranoid voice in the back of my mind (I like to call it Refa) that makes me uncomfortable assigning him a townread.

Mackc - Oh boy. Apparently his hedginess/cautiousness is NAI for him. Flip flopping of reads is a good look, him being easily convinced at times is not. Open heartedness about lack of hunting and sheeping is for me personally something scum!me would pull, but town!me would never admit, but I think it's a towntell for most people? Defended Evan at EoD (meta-stuff), but wanted to get Bart instead. This is weird if Bart and Evan are scum, so I'm leaning towards townreading him if Bart flips scum. If Bart is town, he gets moved up to top scumread.

Scumreads

RAD - Coasting on an early townread. Bothered to respond to questions yesterday, but didn't provide cases, reads or a pressure vote. Reminds me of lazyscum!me who just skims the thread looking for pings, answers them and peaces out. Fenrir dying could be a framejob (assuming he was the mafkill, which I am, he was productive and collective townread I feel), but it is quite convenient.

Bartozio - If you're town here, who do we kill after your flip? More seriously, it will take quite a bit to convince me of your being town. Amaze me.

[Athena_57]

@Bartozio 

I would like for you to find a second scumread to assemble a scumteam.

[Athena_57]

so either a scumpartner for RAD, or two people who make sense as buddies

[Fable]

I could be IC and you'd still suspect me. 

Anyway I'm gonna go ISO Evan to see if I can glean anything off it. 

[Athena_57]

3 minutes ago, Fable said:

I could be IC and you'd still suspect me. 

Anyway I'm gonna go ISO Evan to see if I can glean anything off it. 

I found he had pretty much the exact same reads as Bart. Could you check whether you see the same thing?

[Athena_57]

Like they both had me,mack,makaze,zeo,eachother as town, fenrir/junk/rad as null and sats/fable/nadroj as scum or something like that during day 1

[Athena_57]

It really weirded me out tbh

[Fable]

Junk looks good from how Evan shaded him for voting Athena and then Junk voted for him later.

 Athena looks kinda bad for defending Evan from lynch d1 saying he didn't have enough posts when Satsuma didn't either really and the way Evan defended him so much still pings me. Questioned Evan later though and I agreed with most of his posts d2 so it's hard for me to W read him. 

Bartozio basically in the same boat as Athena except even more hypocritical considering his reason for wanting to lynch me was literally because I didn't do anything early. I already went over how he and Evan were softballing to each other yesterday and that still bothers me today. 

If Mak wasn't dead I'd think he had wolf equity too, his posts concerning Evan are so bad lmao. 

Bomb Moss questioned Evan and Evan shaded him so he looks p good IMO. 

Mack has been pretty hedged on Evan a lot and Evan V read him for really reachy reasons I think,. I wouldn't rule him out him Bart flips wolf because he voted bart is a spot where Evan was the clear lynch so it was safe. 

RAD never really says anything about Evan and vice versa.....which really don't like that tbh. 

Think from this it's Bart>Mack>RAD>Athena in terms of partners. 

[Athena_57]

3 minutes ago, Fable said:

RAD never really says anything about Evan and vice versa.....which really don't like that tbh. 

RAD never really says much about a bunch of people though. And vice versa.

[Fable]

It's a problem yeah, needs to be pressured in the same way Zeo was yesterday I think. 

##Vote: @RADicate

[Athena_57]

You have got to be fucking kidding me, zero posts overnight?

[Athena_57]

Journal entry 25th of June, 15:24

I've run out of water. My vision is disappearing. I'm having visions of weird events, like a wagon on me containing only townies. Things are so awfully quiet here without Makaze thunderdoming people. I think I've seen zeo, nadroj and mackc all repeatedly, but at this point I'm not sure I trust myself anymore. I used to have an inner voice guiding me but as of late, it has quieted down. Does this silence mean the mafia have given up? Or are they just waiting for us to strangle ourselves? Maybe I misread my role PM and am actually mafia. In that case at least I've got thread control. I'm not sure how much longer I can hold on. If anyone is out there, please send help. I regret everything.

[Mackc2]

Be quiet Athena I'm trying to read, give me time.

[XnadrojX]

Oof, I'm assuming that was a Vig Shot.

 

So Evan flipped scum, which makes Fable, Makaze, and Zeonth look pretty good, and it makes Bartozio and RADicate look bad.

I'd be voting Bartozio here, but RADicate seems to have dropped off the face of the earth, which pings me hard after he got so many townreads day 1. I'm probably paranoid of coasting scum but I feel pretty scared of this slot.

 

##Vote @RADicate

[Athena_57]

2 minutes ago, XnadrojX said:

Oof, I'm assuming that was a Vig Shot.

 

So Evan flipped scum, which makes Fable, Makaze, and Zeonth look pretty good, and it makes Bartozio and RADicate look bad.

I'd be voting Bartozio here, but RADicate seems to have dropped off the face of the earth, which pings me hard after he got so many townreads day 1. I'm probably paranoid of coasting scum but I feel pretty scared of this slot.

 

##Vote @RADicate

Do you see RAD/Bart as a possible scumteam?

What would a RAD flip do for your reads?

What would a Bart flip do for your reads?

[Athena_57]

Also, hurray, my prayers have been answered!

[XnadrojX]

Actually, RAD/Bart makes sense. RAD has basically no interactions with anyone, and the one flipped scum makes Bart looks bad, I can see them as scum buddies.

Neither of their flips really advance my reads that far though, RAD is contentless with anyone except Fenrir who is dead, and the person who Bart has the most interaction with is me. Maybe you, but I can't see myself discerning an alignment of yours because of a Bart scumflip because it's limited to a Day 1 early interaction that turned out to... be rather weird and I'd rather not deal with it. Those 2 are my biggest scumreads however and I would settle for them to be lynched today

[Athena_57]

2 minutes ago, XnadrojX said:

Actually, RAD/Bart makes sense. RAD has basically no interactions with anyone, and the one flipped scum makes Bart looks bad, I can see them as scum buddies.

Neither of their flips really advance my reads that far though, RAD is contentless with anyone except Fenrir who is dead, and the person who Bart has the most interaction with is me. Maybe you, but I can't see myself discerning an alignment of yours because of a Bart scumflip because it's limited to a Day 1 early interaction that turned out to... be rather weird and I'd rather not deal with it. Those 2 are my biggest scumreads however and I would settle for them to be lynched today

Looking good. What's the rest of your PoE pool? So if one of them flips town, who do we get?

[Mackc2]

The double kill is confusing me, this game is too small to have an ITP right? So that means its a vig but who would Vig Makaze or Fenrir they where pretty much unanimous town. It may give us an advantage if we can figure out who the vigilante is based on interaction, unlike scum their motives aren't multifacceted it should just be someone who scum read either of them, a vig has no reason to hide cause they are basically VT after their shot. (Currently my bets are on fable shooting Makaze) 

Onto some content, its incomplete but here is the first two people. 
Junk- Town- They have consistent follow ups to their cases and it feels like their logic is actually going somewhere and evolving, this isn't something I usually see from junk and every game I have played with Junk he has been scum so this must be his town game. On association he looks pretty solid he has consistently been pressuring Evan, his insistence on voting Bart will depend on what Bart flips if scum then its fine, if not well it starts to look fishy, not that it would matter for him because if bart flips town I am so dead. 

Xan-Town- Their content and tone are kind of neutral however they look amazing by association, he had no reason to vote Evan and his vote is what gave the wagon traction in the first place. If Bartozio is town and he is scum would have made far more sense to go "Yeah bart is evil" and vote him and if Bart is scum well its just not good etiquette to bus both your scum buddies and specifically state you see them working as a scum team when he could have just hoped aboard the Zeo train.

[Mackc2]

21 hours ago, Junk said:

 As for my theory it seems to be thrown out the window with this evan flip and if I think bart is scum BOTH evan and Bart trying to bus their scumbuddy seems kind of weird. Athena also made a vote on Evan when he easily could have just stuck on to zeoneth 

Agree with this first bit however the second isn't really a towntell scum him could have realised that Evan was going to die no matter what he did so he hopped aboard the wagon for the free towncred, he is late enough in the wagon that you can conclude that Evan is dead by that point. Overall though I stand by my townread of them (Athena) on D2. 

[Athena_57]

32 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

The double kill is confusing me, this game is too small to have an ITP right? So that means its a vig but who would Vig Makaze or Fenrir they where pretty much unanimous town. It may give us an advantage if we can figure out who the vigilante is based on interaction, unlike scum their motives aren't multifacceted it should just be someone who scum read either of them, a vig has no reason to hide cause they are basically VT after their shot. (Currently my bets are on fable shooting Makaze) 

Why do you think there can be an ITP when numbers are confirmed in OP? I've already said this before.

[Mackc2]

2 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

Why do you think there can be an ITP when numbers are confirmed in OP? I've already said this before.

Do you think I actually read the rules? Thanks for pointing that out though I did miss it. So that means it has to be a vigilante in which case who do you think was the one killed by the vig?