Training Mafia 3.0: Advanced - GAMEOVER

[RADicate]

##Vote @Bartozio

[RADicate]

Unrelated concurring with the analysis that fenrir makes much more sense as the maf kill than as the vig kill. Thus occams razor says Fenrir maf kill; makaze was killed by vig

[RADicate]

EBWOP on the bartz prompting a bus; i meant yesterday on mack's read flip. When iirc athena said "there are a bunch of invisible votes on bartzio" and someone else (idr who) said something along the lines of "you are the most likely lynch today" (which iirc was in reference to bart).

[Iris]

Day 3: Automated Votals from #750 to #828

Bartozio (4): athena_57, Junk, Mackc2, RADicate (L-2!)
RADicate (3): Bartozio, Fable, XnadrojX
Not voting (1): Zeonth

12 hours left.

Vote history:

 

athena_57 (1): Bartozio

Bartozio (1): RADicate

Fable (2): Bartozio -> RADicate

Junk (1): Bartozio

Mackc2 (1): Bartozio

RADicate (1): Bartozio

XnadrojX (1): RADicate

<Beta v2.0.4>

Edited June 26, 2018 by Iris

[Zeonth]

On 6/22/2018 at 7:36 PM, Zeonth said:

1- Does this mean you now suspect me as scum with Evan and Fable and me to be bussing both my partners? 

2- If I flip town first, does that mean you townread Evan and Fable?

3- You lynch me based on this post before seeing my reads on the rest of the players. Are you hard sold on scum!zeo? 

Questions I asked Bart after his "I feel like lynching Zeo, Fable, Evan until we hit scum"

On 6/23/2018 at 8:05 AM, Mackc2 said:

So does that mean there are multiple scum amongst these these three in your mind? What makes you think this? 
This also implies that Zeo and fables interactions are scum/scum what gives you this idea? 
Also lynch all three until we hit town, does that mean if Zeo flips town fable must be town too and evan has to be town if either of them are town? How is this dynamic working in your head?

Mack's reply to Bart's post. These feel strangely similar to my own questions and makes me feel Mack is once again riding off of other's idea when posting his reads/questions. 

[Zeonth]

13 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

@Zeonth I read your ISO and I don't understand how Evan flipping scum makes you town read Fable, could you please explain it to me? Since Makaze is town it doesn't sound strange for Evan to pocket Makaze to hide their connection to fable. That said I don't think Fable is scum because Bartozio is still my main scumread and I don't see both scum bussing Fable. 
##Vote: @Bartozio
I am going to bed, I plan to look through all the scum teams I see are possible and identify the most likely ones tomorrow. Unless I find something crazy the team will probably be bart and someone else so I am leaving this vote here in case I get lazy and just don't bother actually doing any of that. 

I decided Fable would be more likely town as Makaze was my townread last day and he was the one who initially started the interactions between Fable/Maka/Evan by calling Fable out as scum (and lynch) in RVS and Evan as his second scumread in the same post. This is what started the chain that lead to them OMGUSing each other. There was always the possibility it was a double bus (a low one, proven false, but one I would not ignore). I believe my thoughts were explained well enough when I said the only way I would suspect Makaze as scum is if Fable flipped scum first, as I was not sure of his alignment. Evan was a scumread no matter what, he was scummy in a vacuum (stealing your term, Fen) and was someone who pinged me early. The only way the double bus theory had credence to me was if Fable, who's alignment I was not sold on, flipped scum first, as I was sure of a scumread on Evan. Fable would not have been off the hook, but his late D2 posts felt townie enough that I wasn't ready to lynch him first and likely would only have as consolidation to check my theory. 

[Mackc2]

5 hours ago, Zeonth said:

Questions I asked Bart after his "I feel like lynching Zeo, Fable, Evan until we hit scum"

Mack's reply to Bart's post. These feel strangely similar to my own questions and makes me feel Mack is once again riding off of other's idea when posting his reads/questions. 

I haven't actually read any of your posts until last night, so that ones a coincidence 

[Mackc2]

Also Zeo, no comment on gamestate, no vote for mafia? Who do you think is scumteam at this point? 

[Athena_57]

7 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

Also Zeo, no comment on gamestate, no vote for mafia? Who do you think is scumteam at this point? 

Busy atm, so can't repond to RAD/Zeo yet, but nobody vote Bart right now, if we do he can self-hammer

[Athena_57]

Other questions are good though

[Zeonth]

42 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

Also Zeo, no comment on gamestate, no vote for mafia? Who do you think is scumteam at this point? 

If you read my posts last night, you and bart with Evan.

 

athena, why would bart hammer himself? 

[Mackc2]

NO MY POST FUCK

[Athena_57]

14 hours ago, Bartozio said:

 

@athena_57 maybe I missed it, but can you give your opinions on Fable?

On 6/24/2018 at 11:32 PM, athena_57 said:

Dunno tbh

Fable - I want to townread him. I've wanted to townread him all game and I don't even know why. Evan flipping scum should be a good look, Bart flipping scum should look good as well. And yet there's this paranoid voice in the back of my mind (I like to call it Refa) that makes me uncomfortable assigning him a townread.

This is what I said earlier, and still sort of where I am now. He's done nothing inherently scummy, but not much that I can call really town either. Interactions with Evan are good, but when I'm considering bussers he might be the most likely? I'd give him a small townlean, but am sort of paranoid of this slot as lynching you, Mackc and RAD in succession for the gamewin seems too easy somehow? Like, if the game were actually that solved I'd expect more pushback.

TL;DR on this hardcore waffling: Dunno tbh. Can very well be town, but not as towny as my 3 actual townreads.

[Athena_57]

I liked RAD's post by the way, good thought pattern on Zeo/Mackc, especially Mackc, I should check out that flip on Bart from him RAD points out.

The one thing making me paranoid is his townread on me for some reason since Evan and Bart (who I'm pretty sure is scum atm) both townread me from the start... But eh, paranoia aside, it looked good.

[Athena_57]

5 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

athena, why would bart hammer himself? 

To take away 4/5 hours of talking time, denying tonight's nightkill to give their closing thoughts. I think he's the de facto lynch today, I think he knows that and if he's scum he will look to self-hammer I think.

[Athena_57]

Whilst the logic in his posts today look written from a townperspective, I'm missing any sort of spice in Bart's posts today? Like, his scumteam is RAD/Junk on PoE which doesn't sound like he's actually solving, scumhunting, rereading or anything. That's what makes me think Bart is scum most, next to his interactions with Evan, as across this game, his pushes after the nadroj thing have all been very easy pushes over playstyle or inactivity (Fable, Zeo, RAD). That's what I was looking for in his posts today,  but I'm seeing nothing of the sort, which is why my vote is most likely staying on him.

[Athena_57]

@Zeonth I may have missed this, but if Bart or Mackc flips town, who could be scum to you?

[Mackc2]

Well whatever, 
Too long don't want to write again, My current thoughts are Zeo is probably not Barts scumbuddy looking at it from zeo's posts and votes it seems like complete nonsense unless he decided Bart and Evan where dead weights N1 and cut them both loose to give himself free towncred, Looking from scum bartozio I don't see him townreading Zeo now that he is dying unless he is a) trying to drag Zeo down with him, b) hiding his association via Wifom or whatever the acronym is (Bart wouldn't townread his buddy if he knew he was going to be lynched so Zeo must be town, so Bart did actually do it). Overall its reaching and I don't like the idea. 

Fable seems a bit more likely, Bart always finds some reason to move his vote off Fable making his push on them feel non-genuine, Its possible that Fable got caught on evan's wagon thinking it wouldn't gain traction only to be unable to hop off without breaking their legs but you know what this is still just reaching, Why the hell would scumteam be at each others throats so often? 

By PoE Rad has to be bartozio's partner because their lack of D2 content makes it hard to really draw any sort of conclusion based on association and scumreading Bart now in D3 is too little too late to really prove anything, but lining up everyone but me as Town when bart inevitably flips scum is a stupid scum play. 

If bart flips town then I recon Fable/Zeonth because townclearing a buddy based on lynching another buddy is a nice thing to do. 

MY conclusion is I have no fucking clue who Bartozio's scumbuddy is because him being buddies with anyone I haven't town cleared just seems stupid, The only possible other option I can see is Athena because Junk and Xan have made really weird votes if they are bart/Evans scumbuddies. But I have been townreading Athena this whole game so I don't know. 

Also why does everyone say my play is cautious, wtf is cautious about the way I play?

[Zeonth]

11 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

@Zeonth I may have missed this, but if Bart or Mackc flips town, who could be scum to you?

In order of most likely flip, assuming bart flips town tonight, my biggest scumpartner for Mack becomes Athena. 

 

This has been bugging me, but last night you made the case that Evan flipping scum was good for me and bad for bart and set a good case for them as a team. However, this can also be seen as an easy misslynch on bart and the possibility you were bussing Evan last day still exists. You had started the lynches on me last day as a pressure lynch that quickly gained votes and didn’t see you leave the wagon until after the Evan train began to rival it. This could be seen as you feeling it was safer for you to get off me, as your case for staying on a pressure lynch that flips town would be worse for you than a bus. 

 

Before i do mack I need to read back on some things. 

[Zeonth]

FoS returning to Fable, now. 

 

One thing that is weird to me today is that he is the first one on bart and was the first one on Evan. But, after a pressure lynch was changed to Rad, Fable changed his vote to a pressure one on Rad, too, citing that rad needed pressure like I did. However, fable quickly decided I was billy and decided to point out the “shady votes from Sats willing to go to me.” This feels like an attempt to gain some towncred by sleeping the pressure lynch, something that goes against the straightforward style he’s presented up until that point in the game. His lack of follow-up since then do not help change this read. 

 

This one may may be a bit reachy, but it’s something that struck me as weird when reading back over Mack’s previous post and checking fable’s switch-up. 

[Zeonth]

My PoE now becomes this: 

 

scum- Bartozio

scum (leaning null)- mack

scum (leaning town)- athena

(leaning scum)- Fable 

town- xand

null- rad/junk

 

My scumteams look like this (most scummy on left, least scummy on right for all that follows): 

bart + mack/fable

 

if bart flips town:

athen + fable/mack

 

if mack were to flip town today:

bart + fable/Athena 

[Zeonth]

Consider my vote on Bart, but not placed for Athena’s fear of selfhammer. 

[Athena_57]

@Zeonth I'm confused as to why Mackc get's moved further to town after a townflip from Bart. I get you've got this spicy thing wrt me, which is gas, but how does he look better then Fable? I personally think a townflip from Bart looks awful for Mackc, and maybe good for fable?

[Athena_57]

48 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

In order of most likely flip, assuming bart flips town tonight, my biggest scumpartner for Mack becomes Athena. 

 

This has been bugging me, but last night you made the case that Evan flipping scum was good for me and bad for bart and set a good case for them as a team. However, this can also be seen as an easy misslynch on bart and the possibility you were bussing Evan last day still exists. You had started the lynches on me last day as a pressure lynch that quickly gained votes and didn’t see you leave the wagon until after the Evan train began to rival it. This could be seen as you feeling it was safer for you to get off me, as your case for staying on a pressure lynch that flips town would be worse for you than a bus. 

 

If I'm going to leave the wagon on you as soon as it gains traction, why would scum!me start that wagon in the first place?

[Zeonth]

4 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

If I'm going to leave the wagon on you as soon as it gains traction, why would scum!me start that wagon in the first place?

I see it as an attempt to gain towncred, perhaps one you didn’t expect to gain such traction since it had 3 town votes on me (Makaze, fenrir, bartozio (assuming bart flips town, as he is still scumread)).