Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

1 minute ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I meant other canon wyvern lords. His competition.

 

How am I even supposed to score that?

Oh okay. You graded Petra half because she has a custom Wyvern Rider outfit, I take it? It feels like an edge case to me, since she is only recruited, and shows up as an enemy, in the Myrmidon -> Thief -> Assassin sequence. Then again, a unit having two default classes is hardly unknown - just ask Manuela.

Maybe see what they give Lady Rhea, and fold that same score into the otherwise-determined average? Seems like unnecessary busy work, though 

[Fabulously Olivier]

1 minute ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Oh okay. You graded Petra half because she has a custom Wyvern Rider outfit, I take it? It feels like an edge case to me, since she is only recruited, and shows up as an enemy, in the Myrmidon -> Thief -> Assassin sequence. Then again, a unit having two default classes is hardly unknown - just ask Manuela.

Maybe see what they give Lady Rhea, and fold that same score into the otherwise-determined average? Seems like unnecessary busy work, though 

Yes, I graded Petra a half because she's got both Assassin and Wyvern Rider as canon classes, making her a fascinating fringe case. And it's a huge point in her favor because she can be used to fill in two distinct niches that don't have that much competition.

[vanguard333]

53 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Wyvern rider doesn't actually have as much canon competition as one thinks it does. It just has that perception because it's such a popular, overpowered class. It has 2.5 other canon characters (Seteth, Ladislava, and half of Petra). No one else has their canon outfit in that class that I'm aware of. And Claude has a unique variant of Wyvern Rider.

To be fair, I didn't say a lot of competition; I said strong competition. Petra and Seteth are strong competition. I will admit that "strong competition" generally means "a lot of competition", but I really was thinking less in terms of the numbers and more in terms of the other wyvern rider characters being more likely than him.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

1 hour ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Yes, I graded Petra a half because she's got both Assassin and Wyvern Rider as canon classes, making her a fascinating fringe case. And it's a huge point in her favor because she can be used to fill in two distinct niches that don't have that much competition.

Is it in her favor, though, or against her? I think it depends on how many classes each character gets access to. If each character only gets one, then having multiple canon classes may actually hurt their odds, since it'd be hard to pick one over the other. But if they get two or three, then it probably helps their chances. Any more than that, and "canon class" becomes vanishingly insignificant in how likely each character is.

55 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

To be fair, I didn't say a lot of competition; I said strong competition. Petra and Seteth are strong competition. I will admit that "strong competition" generally means "a lot of competition", but I really was thinking less in terms of the numbers and more in terms of the other wyvern rider characters being more likely than him.

As "non-canon competition" goes, we should also look at Edelgard and Hilda. Two confirmed characters, who both have solid odds of getting Wyvern Rider as a potential second or third class.

Also Claude's personal class uses a Wyvern.

[Fabulously Olivier]

3 hours ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Is it in her favor, though, or against her? I think it depends on how many classes each character gets access to. If each character only gets one, then having multiple canon classes may actually hurt their odds, since it'd be hard to pick one over the other. But if they get two or three, then it probably helps their chances. Any more than that, and "canon class" becomes vanishingly insignificant in how likely each character is.

As "non-canon competition" goes, we should also look at Edelgard and Hilda. Two confirmed characters, who both have solid odds of getting Wyvern Rider as a potential second or third class.

Also Claude's personal class uses a Wyvern.

I have the opposite mindset. That it's only a point in her favor in a single-class system, less relevant in a class-set system, and entirely irrelevant in a free-class system.

[ThePrimeOne]

Cyril is a solid 7. I think his connection to the Church and Rhea alone makes him a solid pick to be playable, but his low popularity may affect his chances.

[Dark Holy Elf]

2/10 for Cyril. He's definitely less likely than the least likely students, to whom I gave a 3. Reaaally don't think he's gonna cut in line due to his connection to Rhea. Probably ahead of Gilbert, though, and possibly even Hanneman/Alois... old man curse is real.

[Florete]

Cyril has...like, nothing going for him. He's not popular, he's not relevant to the plot or any plot-important characters (Rhea is important to him, but he is not important to Rhea), he's not even a cute girl. Since he's not one of the normal house students he's really forgettable. 20%

[Fabulously Olivier]

Cyril gets 3.88.

 

Kingdom NPCs round-up

 

Rodrigue - Honestly one of the most likely NPCs. Going to give him a 3/10 chance, and an 8/10 want.

 

Gwendal - 1/10, 3/10

 

Miklan - I'm assuming he's already dead in this story. 0/10, 0/10.

 

Lonato - Same. 0/10, 3/10.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Rodrigue is one of the more likely NPCs, but I still don't think he'd get in over any student. 3/10

Gwendal, who? 0.1/10

Miklan and Lonato are probably already dead. 0.1/10 for both.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Side note, it's pretty wild that Cyril got nearly a full point higher than Ignatz. Does anyone actually think that or is this just a weird artifact of who voted each day?

Roderigue: 1/10. What if Gilbert, but not playable? He's in the game enough for people to form an opinion of him at least, unlike...

Gwendal: 0/10. Acheron with less meme potential

Miklan, Lonato: 0/10. I even rather like Lonato but yeah they're one-chapter bosses who are dead by this point.

[Fabulously Olivier]

7 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Side note, it's pretty wild that Cyril got nearly a full point higher than Ignatz. Does anyone actually think that or is this just a weird artifact of who voted each day?

Roderigue: 1/10. What if Gilbert, but not playable? He's in the game enough for people to form an opinion of him at least, unlike...

Gwendal: 0/10. Acheron with less meme potential

Miklan, Lonato: 0/10. I even rather like Lonato but yeah they're one-chapter bosses who are dead by this point.

I could see a case for either. Bare in mind that Cyril's in-house competition could be seen as lower than Ignatz'. Ironic given that the Church has more units, but Ignatz is pretty much last in line for his house - and it's a house with 4 "guaranteed" winners. Cyril is also kind of unique being the only recruitable Church student.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Rodrigue has hid relationship to Felix, whom I consider a shoo-in. And there aren't any other obvious candidates for Holy Knight, save for Marianne, maybe. Still, he wasn't playable in the base game, and only had relevance on 1 route. I'll give him a 2 out of 10.

Gwendal belongs to the exclusive "enemy on all four routes" club. But he's not exceptionally recognizable, and being the "old man" doesn't help. He gets my lowest score: 1 out of 10.

Miklan is one of the more notable antagonist, and one of the first to use the "verb every last one of them/you" format. He's used to show the dark powers associated with Hero's Relics. But letting him survive and making him playable? Doubtful. 1 out of 10.

Lonato is in a similar place, as a somewhat sympathetic antagonist with a connection to a student who nonetheless died early. I also don't see him being saved, however, and Paladin seems like a competetive class. 1 out of 10.

[Use the Falchion]

I'll also give Rodrigue a 3/10 chance with a 9/10 want. I think he'd be a fun unit to play as, and I'd love to see his supports with his son, regardless of whether or not they reconcile. I think he'd also have a fun support with Seteth and/or Jeralt, and possibly Alois (Team Dad Go!) and it would be hilarious to see the adult version of Felix/Dorothea but with Rodrigue and Manuela. Because I don't think we know if his wife is alive, and I wouldn't be surprised if she wasn't. And lastly, S-Supporting him to become Felix's new mother-in-law would be hilarious. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Use the Falchion

[Dark Holy Elf]

11 hours ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I could see a case for either. Bare in mind that Cyril's in-house competition could be seen as lower than Ignatz'. Ironic given that the Church has more units, but Ignatz is pretty much last in line for his house - and it's a house with 4 "guaranteed" winners. Cyril is also kind of unique being the only recruitable Church student.

Even if the Church manages equal members to the Deer, I have a hard time seeing Cyril ahead here. By my count, he's anywhere from 7th to 9th in line for Church members (counting Rhea as one, since if the Church is actually gonna get in as an equal "faction" she's very likely; Cyril is also behind Seteth, Flayn, Shamir, Catherine, and Manuela at absolute minimum), while Ignatz is 7th or 8th in his (him vs. Raphael is debatable).

Toss in the fact that there's a decent chance the Deer gets more representative than the Church (and not really the reverse barring a full cast), that Ignatz did notably better than Cyril in CYL prior to either of them getting into FEH (and that Cyril is in fact still not in FEH after nearly three years)

[Fire Emblem Fan]

11 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Side note, it's pretty wild that Cyril got nearly a full point higher than Ignatz. Does anyone actually think that or is this just a weird artifact of who voted each day?

I personally think Ignatz is more likely than Cyril.

[Florete]

I think Rodrigue actually has a better shot than people may think. He wasn't in the trailer, but Judith and Randolph being there suggest a potential NPC "set" being added as playable per house.

Eagles: Randolph and Ladislava
Lions: Rodrigue
Deer: Judith

Add to that the fact that he's actually ranked the highest of these 4 in every CYL thus far.

I'm not exactly going all-in on this hypothesis, but I am giving him a higher score for it: 50%

[ThePrimeOne]

0 across the board except for Rodrigue, who I'm also gonna give a 7/10.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Rodrigue gets 3.43.

 

Gwendal gets 0.42.

 

Lonato and Miklan both get 0.22.

 

Day 45 - Anna

 

Anna's unimportant in the context of the game, but she is wildly popular as essentially the real FE mascot. As such, I think a 7/10 might be appropriate.

 

As for want, 6/10. I think she had some great running gags in the original FEW, and they'd still work here. She also has a lot of potential for a quirky personal moveset.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Florete]

I remember when FEW1 was being speculated and it seemed I was the only one who believed Anna would be included. I'm...not as confident this time around, though. FEW1 was about the series overall so it made a lot of sense to include the most commonly recurring character, but Three Hopes focusing on just one game means that no longer applies and she's less "necessary," so to speak. But still, if the roster of the game isn't especially small, she'll likely take priority over the less popular members of the cast because she is a series icon regardless.

70% feels good.

I just hope she's better in Three Hopes than she is in Three Houses. I miss the glory days of Awakening Anna.

[ciphertul]

Anna I give her a 7/10.

A 0 for personal though I’m down right tired of her shtick, it is one I’m not that big of a fan of in the first place.

[Use the Falchion]

Anna is a 10/10 either as DLC or as a base character, as has been the case for the past 3-4 games. 

[Fabulously Olivier]

2 minutes ago, Use the Falchion said:

Anna is a 10/10 either as DLC or as a base character, as has been the case for the past 3-4 games. 

I actually think DLC may be the place for her. Characters like Anna and Gatekeeper are perfectly positioned to sell dlc, because they are popular, but aren't important to the story.

[Etrurian emperor]

Anna being present in the game is an outright 10/10. Either as a menu voice or a shopkeeper, probably both. As for a playable character I'd give her a solid 7/10 since she was already playable in the first Warriors so they can argue its tradition

Want: 4/10. She seems kind of a wasted slot if there's to be fierce competition between slots. Anna getting in while someone like Ignatz or Annette don't would be rather unfortunate. 

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Ah, the recurring character, Anna. She's one of the most oft-criticized additions to Three Houses, owing to her lack of supports or story relevance. And she's only usable by players who picked up the DLC! So KT has a choice - do they cut their losses and drop Anna, or do they try to bring her back as a fully-fleshed character? I think the latter is slightly more likely, so I'll give playable Anna a 6 out of 10.