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I really think that we should lynch Shinori. His one post wasn't townie, and before you guys say that you don't want to lynch him off one post, several of you were willing to do that with Darros on D1. Additionally, he's been online and around kind of in this period of inactivity, so I think his inactivity is alignment related. I'm willing to lynch Elieson if it comes to that but I feel like if he was going to misrep me and whatnot intentionally he would actually vote me or at least put me in a priority list rather than just say that he's not even scumreading me. I mean, Manix, Marth, and Refa had all put me at or near the top of their priority lists, so his vote would make that block larger than me/kirscke/Mitsuki (the other active people). He could be doing it to push me without a vote but considering I seem to be somewhat polarizing (people are either townreading me or scumreading me), this seams like a tactically bad move- you're unlikely to influence someone's townread with a subtle push. He still has a high chance of being scum IMO but I don't feel as confident today about him as I do about Shinori. running late for work but Marth townread quickly: -good reaction to Refa's test IMO -generally decent scumhunting/tone/etc (haven't disliked anything other than scorri case) -hasn't used the lurking of his top scumread, scorri to lurk himself (I admit the fact that I think the scum are all inactive has caused me to active lurk for parts of D2) -chose to shift me down on the lynch priority list during consolidation time when a lynch could easily be pushed on me because of how spread out the votals are

holy shit Chaugmar got WRECKED I took him down in two shield cycles without even using specials; it was great. Tiz boosted everybody's DEF up to 150% and then the party Defaulted. They all barely survived, Tiz boosted everybody's ATK up to 150%, and then the Monks fired 4 Thundara-powered Hidden Dragons. Then they got in another Strong Strike before he put the shield up. Repeat cycle; Chaugmar dead. EDIT: beat Kamiizumi as well, although the first battle went something like this: Ringabel/Edea Hidden Dragon; Ringabel gets KOed through Know Thine Enemy. Kamiizumi Braves 3 times and attacks my entire party, OHKOing Tiz and Agnes and 2HKOing Edea the second battle I was careful to Default the turn after someone got knocked out so I wouldn't get OHKOd again, and to try and guess when he wasn't going to use Nothing Ventured to minimize counterkills and it went fairly smoothly. Completed the Egil thing as well, so NINJA is up next.

@Manix- Yeah so finding one sugary box and then seeing which boxes are similar to it is one way of finding the sugariest boxes. But if you can accurately determine all the boxes that aren't sugary, that also lets you find which ones are sugary. This analogy is kind of falling apart now... I was going to write this entire post in cereal analogies but it was too difficult. I'm sorry Paper Manix: Tone is town because he's generally a lot more aggressive and direct than he is when he's scum. Also the content is consistent whereas it comes in flurries as scum with a lot of active lurking thrown in otherwise (see: Spellcard, SFMM3). Also my favourite Manix meta; scumreading me off tone less than 12 hours into the game. It's hilarious because this would be so easy for him to replicate as scum but he never does. I suppose he'll do it one of these days but he's not scum this time. He also coasts off roleclaims a lot (also see Spellcard and SFMM3)- he hasn't done so since the dayvig (which is town in and of itself but I was townreading him before that). Refa: I think that his activity and content at the beginning of D1 was really motivated, which is supertownie in this context because of how often he's been scum lately. His ED2 admitting that he's not really sure why people are townreading him also is townie I think because scum, especially in the context of having been scum so many times in a row would not want to draw attention to that. I also think that he's fine with just sheeping a read rather than first making up reasoning for it, which is normally town for people who don't have many issues generating content. Those people just make up reasoning when they're jumping onto a wagon because it looks "better". It gives me an overall feeling of Big NOCers, where he was willing to just follow my D2 Elie scumread. Mitsuki: I'm a little unsure of this in comparison to the first two because I've never seen Mitsuki roll scum, so there's always going to a little uncertainty in the back of my mind because I don't know how well she can fake things as scum. That being said, I think that her reaction to Refa's fake report didn't feel faked at all. I especially think that the part where she talked about her RVS gut townread on Refa is town because it feels like genuine town pride upon correctly guessing someone's alignment right away, rather than scum over-explaining as Elie said. Also, scum would know that the report was fake, so it just doesn't make sense to me to rave on about how Refa is town (as Elie is claiming) because it's just jarring after that to change to a scumread. I had everyone in here but then I lost my post and writing up Manix/Refa/Mitsuki again tired me. I'll get to Marth/kirsche/scorri later.

Your cereal example is flawed because there you have no guarantee that 3 cereal boxes are sugary. Here you do know that there's at least one member of the mafia. And if you knew that there were 3 sugary cereal boxes then seeing that 7/10 probably weren't would indeed tell you that the remaining ones probably are. Mafia isn't about finding the scummiest person (sugariest cereal box), it's about finding all the scum (all the sugary cereal boxes). The meta thing was also just me arguing a point about gameplay theory that frustrates me because every single game where I have meta reads I get people saying that meta reads aren't as concrete as other reads. As for the two examples you gave- "Psych being Psych" means that people aren't using something that's alignment-indicative (what I said in my post). And you're not Paperblade- you don't get lynched for meta reasons very often. If you keep getting lynched for dumb reasons that AREN'T meta then you of all people should see that meta is just as reliable as anything else.

This isn't true at all and is pretty circular. My scumreads being based on my townreads doesn't mean my townreads are worse in quality. How does that even make sense? Absolutely 0 of my reads stem from rolespec, the setup, or activity. You're doing the same thing that Manix and Marth are doing and dismissing my townreads without even. Seriously, you even acknowledged that you're not reading my posts carefully- why are you even talking to me? I've never at any point said that Darros and scorri are scum. I've had them at neutral or townie the entire game. Every single one of my non-PoE reads is based on in-thread play and posts. And I've never said that the people I'm scumreading are scum because they're inactive- I've said that they're the most likely to be scum because I think that everybody who's been active is town. You are wrong. Meta is completely concrete; just as concrete as scumtells like "wow that guy's sheeping" because if your argument is that scum can actively make an effort to subvert their meta and play differently from what they did last game, they can also actively make an effort to not sheep. Yeah you're not going to be right 100% of the time but that's the case with any method of scumhunting. The problem is that people don't know how to use meta correctly and half the time the meta they use from past games is stuff that's not alignment indicative or they fail to take into account extenuating circumstances that caused that game to be different.

? Bosnia had no chance to qualify; they were on 0 points and Nigeria was on 4. Iran could have qualified with a Nigeria loss if they'd beaten Bosnia. This meant that they needed to break out of their 10-0-0 formation, which unfortunately resulted in them losing.

#suttonrising seriously though 12.75M holy shit

possibly, I'm level 38 and I'm in the middle of Underflow atm (speaking of which, stupid Fahrenheit 451 Flare Lanterns) I tried another Nemesis fight (level 30 Khint + Profiteur). At the beginning, Profiteur's Takeover was doing a laughable 300 damage, so I went for Khint first. But once he left, Profiteur took steroids or something and went from level 6 to level 40, because his Takeovers suddenly started doing like 2000 damage and he started using Large BP Drink to boost himself to 3 BP. He never Takeover x 4'd, but the Takeover x 2 three turns in a row was pretty much enough to fuck me after a few cycles considering only my Monks have more than 2k HP (and just barely) and he had like 80k hp. Next time I'll go for Profiteur first so that by the time he can do serious damage he's already at half HP. Khint's Sleep Sword was annoying but easily dealt with since the damage was not very high.

There's actually a specific dedicated mafia subforum here. Post this in our mafia headquarters. A few of us play on other sites as well, so I'm sure some of us might try out a game or two when we're less busy.

I realized I didn't finish my second paragraph ...because hey; inactive people can't be scum right? should probably clarify that I still think Manix is town; he's just incapable of re-evaluating and it's highly annoying.

Protect + Default isn't enough? good thing I have PERFORMER that was a good pick beat Qada btw; currently in Underflow

@Mitsuki- Manix doesn't change his reads for anything short of a 100% unarguable role result, like a friendly townie (me in Group Mafia). Not really sure why he bothered with the reaction test. Currently since Darros gave up he's thinking that it's demotivatived scum not bothering to post anymore. But if Darros had gone super effort mode and written 5 paragraphs about every player in the game Manix would probably have said it was scum flailing to try and save themselves. What's really frustrating me is that neither of you (Marth, Manix) are looking at the REASONS behind my townreads and saying why they're bad. Like seriously, you haven't disputed my reasoning behind townreading a single person in the thread except Darros. You're just taking it as automatically suspicious that I'm not scumreading anyone who's active without saying why my reasons for doing so are bad because hey

##Vote: Shinori So I didn't actually reread the entire thread because I'm not feeling very well but I read the inactives (lol). In hindsight I didn't actually like Shinori's one post much. Most of it was just saying he agreed with people's posts, with saying that kirsche and I are scummy because our argument sounded forced and because he didn't like people "asking for attention" which isn't even scummy. Kirsche is scummy for a weak FFM vote, but all he himself says about FFM is that his posts are not that good but that he wasn't worried about him. This is actually really bad because FFM was the biggest wagon at the time IIRC with at least 4 votes- purposely avoiding committing to an opinion is suspicious. Also IIRC at that point both SB and Mitsuki were townreading me and had said so explicitly, so saying he agrees with all their posts and that their posts were sheepworthy and then scumreading me makes little sense. Darros read is also kind of weak; mainly sheeped from Mitsuki I think.

@kirsche- why Eury over Shinori/Poly?

@Manix- I don't think any active players are scum, yes. I've said this several times. My townreads currently go like: Manix > Refa > Mitsuki > Marth > kirsche > scorri > Darros (not that he matters anymore). So that leaves Elie, Shinori, Eury, and Poly. Darros if you have investigation results of any kind you should reveal them. I don't agree with Elie's Mitsuki read but I can't actually see anything scummy in his last two posts despite trying very hard. ##Unvote. I will reread the thread again this evening. Elie, do you think that Mitsuki's reaction to learning that the reaction test was fake was faked? BTW I forgot to list Poly as a potential 4th but he didn't make the top 3 because of gut about his reaction test reaction.

didn't watch the game; how did Suarez not get carded for biting someone?

I did; I have a strong feeling that the scumteam is comprised of Elie/Shinori/Eury almost purely off PoE

saying OMG COULD BE A REACTION TEST is stupid as fuck and if this reaction test had been primarily intended for Elie and not to see how Marth, whom I saw in the thread, would react to a scumread claiming Cop, I would be super annoyed. like wtf Manix you know better than that. As it is you basically invalidated Marth's reaction I don't have any real scumreads, no, so I tried something primarily to reaffirm my townread on Marth because I was feeling a little off about Marth's scorri case, and chose Elie because he probably wouldn't come into the thread first and because I didn't like his FFM vote anyways. I legitimately think that the following people are town: Refa, Manix, Marth, Mitsuki, scorri, kirsche I have to go to work right now so I don't have anything to say about anyone else.

not as good as drafting Kent and Sain

one day I hope to be as great as Snike and win as SK after claiming SK

sheep my investigative results ##Vote: Elieson Next, @FFM- Yeah we mislynched you and part of that onus is on us for not reading you correctly. But if you're getting mislynched in so many of your games then there's something about your play that needs to be improved as well. And if you keep putting all the blame on the town without looking at your own play, it won't. I still am not feeling the cases on Darros; sticking to his guns about Poly reads like town since there were people were considering lynching him at deadline pretty much solely because of the Poly vote. Also his wording "isn't it obvious?" makes me feel that he genuinely finds what Poly did to be suspicious. I don't see how townreading half the playerlist is scummy when more than half the playerlist is town. If you're not townreading half the playerlist then you're not as good at getting reads as me Also fwiw without him here to confirm/deny it, SB was talking about a MotK game into which I put almost no effort because I was concentrating a lot on the SF game at the time, Healer, where I was also scum and in a worse situation. And using one game (that's not even particularly recent) as a sample for my scum meta when I've been scum a lot more times and not displayed that behaviour doesn't make sense.

Innes has Longbow for C18. Might not make a difference, but it's still somewhat of a niche, far more than unimpressive 1-2 range combat that a lot of people do way better. C13 is being cleared in 2-3 and not by either Dozla or Innes. C14 is also a map where neither are contributing to the primary objective. I guess they could take on some secondary enemies somewhere but Innes has better 2 range than Dozla and has better across-the-wall sniping. Dozla probably has somewhat of an edge in C15 but Innes can also still kill the peg reinforcements or wyverns, whom Dozla probably doesn't ORKO? Neither of them are contributing after that except for C18, where I think Innes's Longbow is more of an edge than Dozla, who can be replaced by literally anyone other than, like, Joshua/Marisa/Colm/Rennac Innes also has pretty much guaranteed Nidhogg, while Dozla is competing with a bunch of far better axe-users for Garm. Personally I'd make an Eph list as well. 2nd last spot simply doesn't reflect Cormag's drafting position to me, because realistically someone is going to take him somewhere in the middle and if they get Duessel too, seriously consider going that route. It's not a bad strategy IMO for 4th pick to doublepick them in rounds 3 and 4. Also even for Eir I would espouse Duessel up over at least Rennac. If Rennac can be used by people who haven't drafted him in the desert (please verify?) that's like all his value gone there. And plus there's that trick that gives you 100% item finding rate in the desert. What is Rennac doing past that? There's nothing really for him to steal at that point in the game that's going to make a difference. Meanwhile Duessel can take on like the entire bottom half in C15 and then makes for way better filler combat than Rennac for C18.

never played Football Manager but this was a pretty entertaining read regardless Question; are you controlling the players in the games? Guessing not since they look like just circles and not players. If you haven't been, your record has been pretty freaking impressive. Kudos either way. note: I think one of your pics is mislabeled in the last update; you have a 2-0 win against Barnet listed as a 2-0 loss to AFC Telford.

damnit croatia

come on Croatiaaaaa