Kngt_Of_Titania
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Posts posted by Kngt_Of_Titania
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Because it means more people will have to edit it out than add it in.
IDK about hitrates, man, 2RN system makes missing a lot harder, even on the shakier hitrates.
Technically, it also stabilizes low hit rates in the same logic. True hit favors hitting more if the hit rate is ~49% or greater. WHY DID I SPEND SO MUCH TIME MAKING SUCH PRETTY GRAPHS AND EQUATIONS?!
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But then the first drafter has to watch 9 players get drafted before his #2 pick
But I have the advantage of getting the unit of my choice guaranteed and passing off the best screw unit.
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Wild card is pointless. It gives an advantage to the firstgoing player since there is no point in not using it on the first turn - the best characters are there, and you want as many of them as you can get, see. There's no point in using it for a bad character over a good one, and you'll miss your chance for the good one if you don't use the wild card on the first turn.
Technically it gives an advantage to the last guy, since I can't use it until my second pick.
It's there so the 5th guy to choose isn't boned.
Anyways...
I make Bantu not suck, somehow.
I reclass Bord to Pirate/Warrior.
I give Julian to Vicious Sal. Enjoy his early craptastic combat.
I give Maria to General Horace. You suck eggs.
I draft Mage/Sage!Merric.
I also use my wild card to draft Cleric/Bishop!Lena
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Chapter 11 - 4/4 Turns:
Simple enough...I had Eliwood crit the first Birdang brigand with his rapier, then had Marcus rescue him until he was dropped on turn 3. Rebecca worked her way to the Dracoshield village. Eliwood dodged a third attack that would've killed him on turn 3, Marcus ORKO'd the boss, and Eliwood capped.
Chapter 12 - 5/9 Turns:
Not much to say but that I used the same strat as Horace, except Rebecca nabbed the Secret Book. Drafting her has given me 2 free stat boosters so far. >:D
Chapter 13 - 6/15 Turns:
I guess you're all wondering why I didn't 5 turn it like General_Horace. Well, as it turns out, you need either Oswin or Lowen to snap the branch to reliably do it (and this draft prohibits their use of that), and I had neither drafted. What's hilarious, though, is that I put Eliwood just out of harm's way (otherwise, he had a 80%+ chance of dying on enemy phase) when I dropped in him turn 4, but this meant I had to drop him more than 5 spaces away from the boss. You see, Marcus cannot OHKO the boss without a crit. And what would you know? Marcus crit. Which meant I might've possibly been able to 5 turn it. Fuck my life. And the sad part is that this single turn will probably be the sole factor in the end that makes Horace win, if I can somehow outdo the turns Florina gains by having the non-fog of war FFO chapter. Oh well, at least I recruited Guy. Free Killing Edge!
...And I can't re-try for a lower turn count because I think we've all agreed restarting repeatedly for a critblick is tacitly prohibited.
Chapter 13x - 7/22 Turns:
Not bad, with meatshielding allowed. Forced 7 turns, anyways.
Chapter 14 - 3/25 Turns:
I. AM. A. GOD! But, no, really, smart use of Hector, Marcus, Beccy, and Eliwood made this possible. And allows me to tie Horace. I wouldn't have clocked 3 turns without Beccy. Heh.
P.S. I'm too lazy to release stats.
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Still, it's kind of funny amazing how things turned out. Marcus Wil/Rebecca are going to get a lot of use in the early chapters forever.
Fixed.
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Alright, revealing them now. Just give me time to decode.
Refa/13th/Me: Karel, Hector, Wil, Nino, Lyn, Rebecca, Heath. TIME TO WHIP OUT MAH "BOW" TIE.
Elieson/Daigoji Excellen: Guy, Kent, Dart, Raven, Dorcas, Matthew, Sain. CAV BRRROOOOSSSS!
Baldrick/blues: Hawkeye, Ninian/Nils, Fiora, Rath, Lucius, Prissy-Poo, Erk. DUB DUB HEALERS!
Eclipse/Horace: Jaffar, Legault, Florina, Vaida, Oswin, Pent, Isadora. Guys, we just gave Horace two fliers in a LTC competition.
Kopfjager/Zhalman: Renault, Geitz/Wallace, Louise, Bartre, Lowen, Harken, Canas. You guys are so fucked.
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Nope. Kngt of titania has it
Me and 13th were talking about it on chat and we were actually think me and him could both be on Refa's team, to allow blues to join. Not sure if that screws things up. I'd obviously like you and Refa to approve.
If not, I don't mind just letting either me or blues to team up with Dr. Will.
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Hopefully our team is good, eh?
...Well, let's just say I envy it.
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So that leaves me with Dr. Will, if he permits.
Or whomever picks Wil's number. >:D
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Alright, I start off with Fighter/Berserker!Barst, give General_Horace Boah.
MU: Archer/Sniper
Jaigan: Dracoknight
Arran: Paladin
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Seems like a tl;dr version of shit we already knew to me. Thus, I doubt it warrants a new thread.
Ah, and it had a shiny new equation to calculate true hit for any displayed hit too.
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Maybe i'll actually lose a draft
If this wasn't my first draft maybe you would. Or technically my first run through both FE11 or FE12.
Archer MU and I can guarantee that I draft a sniper? Hell yeah.
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I swear I'm going to regret this.
I'm in.
EDIT: I think that makes me the fifth.
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the FE12 board has a stickied topic with enemy stats from every chapter except 20x
Alright, good to know. Anyways, on to the promised post:
[spoiler=Solving for True Hit, 0-50% Hit Chance]
Alright, so this is the basic gist. Instead of one roll from 0-99 determining what your chance to hit is as displayed hit would suggest, true hit uses two -- if the average of the two rolls is less than the hit percentage displayed on screen, the hit will land. To write this as a formula:
(Random[0-99] + Random[0-99]) < Displayed hit chance*2
Since there are 100 possibilities per roll and 2 rolls, there are (100^2) = 10,000 total combinations. To figure out the true hit for each displayed hit chance, find the number of combinations where the sum of the rolls is less than (Displayed Hit Chance)*2 and divide it by 10,000. For example, at 1% displayed hit, the sum of both rolls must be < 2. There are only three rolls that satisfy this condition -- 00 00, 01 00, and 00 01. This means that the true odds of hitting are 3 in 10,000, or 0.03%.
So how do we solve this? First, let's find a pattern:
Sum=0: 00 00 (1 combination)
Sum=1: 00 01, 01 00 (2 combinations)
Sum=2: 00 02, 02 00, 01 01 (3 combinations)
Sum=3: 00 03, 03 00, 02 01, 01 02 (4 combinations)
Notice that the number of combinations is exactly one more than the sum. As a note, this pattern doesn't seem to stop, so let's run with it. This would mean that the total number of combinations with a sum less than or equal to S would be Σ(N+1), N: 0->S (0 is below the Σ, S is above). When the displayed hit is 1%, S is 1...when displayed hit is 2%, S is 3...when displayed hit is 3%, S is 5...and so on. We can express this as an equation:
# of combinations = Σ(N+1), N: 0->(2*D-1), where D is the displayed hit on your screen (in %).
And thus:
True hit (in %) = [(Σ(N+1), N: 0->(2*D-1) / 10,000] * 100%
This equation works for 0-50% hit chance at least, and then it seems to break down (I'm not entirely sure why)...however, we can employ a similar method to solve 50-100%, working backwards.
[spoiler='Solving for True Hit, >50% Hit Chance]
So, when hit chance > 50%, we simply try a slightly different technique...we find the number of combinations where the sum is greater than or equal to (Displayed Hit Chance)*2 and then subtract that number from 10,000 to find the number of combinations where the sum is less than (Displayed Hit Chance)*2. We then take this value and divide it by 10,000 to find the true hit. So let's follow the same technique as in the last section:
Sum=200: No combinations, as each RN<=99.
Sum=199: No combinations, as each RN<=99.
Sum=198: 99 99 (1 combination)
Sum=197: 99 98, 98 99 (2 combinations)
Sum=196: 99 97, 97 99, 98 98 (3 combinations)
Sum=195: 99 96, 96 99, 98 97, 97 98 (4 combinations)
I'm seeing a pattern come up...are you? The total number of combinations with a sum greater than or equal to S is Σ(199-N), N: S->198. Following the exact same procedure as our last section, this means that:
True hit (in %) = ([10,000 - Σ(199-N), N: S->198]/10,000)*100%
This equation holds for all values where hit chance > 50%. Yeah, adding a second roll to this complicates shit way more than you'd think.
Anyways, on to the "Great, so what the fuck does this all mean?" section of my post.
[spoiler=Graphs and Useful Math Shit]
So first, let me show you what true hit actually does. The X axis is the displayed hit on screen, while the Y axis is the true hit. Notice the distinctly sigmoidal pattern that emerges, and how it stabilizes extremely high and extremely low true hit rates, especially those above 90% and those below 10% (no, I can't find out how to shrink it, HELP!):
Second, let me show you a graph that shows how a person's survivability increases as enemy hit chance decreases (loosely read as, "As your avoid increases faster than the enemy's hit"):
Essentially, this shows us that true hit tends to decrease survivability in general until hit rates start dipping below 50% -- now, while this is more common in earlier FEs, hit rates dropping below 50% is much rarer in FE11 and FE12. Notice how the slope of the true hit curve starts out lower and soon becomes larger than that of the non-true hit curve; this means that true hit is initially devaluing avoid at high hit rates but, at when enemies tend to miss frequently enough, making it more valuable than it normally would be.
My last graph, which shows the relative value of avoid for each enemy hit rate, will show at what hit rates devaluing/super-valuing of avoid occurs:
What the graph tells us is that, when the enemy hits you more than roughly 70% of the time, true hit actually decreases the value of each point of avoid; when enemy hit chance drops below 70%, true hit actually works in avoid's favor.
All of this information, of course, verifies my original hypotheses:
1) Low enemy hit rates drastically increase the value of avoid, especially when true hit is present. A single point of avoid at 65% enemy hit rate effectively increases your time to live to about 102% of its previous value. However, 1 avoid at 20% enemy hit rate increases your time to live to about 112% of its previous value. 1 avoid at 100% enemy hit rate? Barely registers. Under a true hit system, it looks like it takes until an enemy hit rate of 75% until 1 avoid actually means a 1% increase in time to live. LUK, which gives avoid, is similarly inflated/deflated as a stat by these same mechanics.
2) Hard modes and FE11/FE12, which tend to favor high hit rates, thus devalues avoid as a whole, and thus LUK. Unless you can drop below a critical value of maybe 75-80% enemy hit, avoid is extremely lackluster and RNG fickle. So the only reason you'd want LUK is if enemy crit rates are high enough to warrant it.
P.S. Should I make my own seperate thread posting this information? I'm not sure if anybody has actually analyzed true hit this deeply before.
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Luck was still valuable to avoid criticals from enemies, as people have mentioned. Low luck characters like Sirius do have issues, and someone like Michalis is almost unusable since he has a 15% chance to die in any given round of combat. Certainly, the lower difficulties have no value for luck or skill any more than the higher difficulties: if anything, skill and luck are even less important, since landing and avoiding criticals is no longer as necessary.
Relegating it to near useless unless crit evade is necessary
So we agree, for the most part. Like I've said in another thread at least, it is my first time running FE12,and I'm just wrapping up the prologue. I had no idea what crit rates are in later FE12, so I didn't speak to them, merely stating that they'd have to be quite high compared to most other FE games I've played for LUK to be useful. However, my point that, in FE11/FE12 (and especially in their hard modes), that the avoidance portion of LUK becomes more of a hidden, useless function than actually important in any capacity. Enemy hit rates are so high that both the mechanics of true hit and avoidance itself work against it.
I'm currently working on graphing true hit versus displayed hit, as well as how true hit works in favor/against avoidance's value. I solved it, but I suck at modeling and Excel sucks at solving series.
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The impact of Luck mostly occurs at the extreme ends of the stat. Characters on the low end(Kent,Knoll) face critical percentages very often and have poor evade, characters like Priscilla or Ninian almost never face criticals and have very good evade. It's especially useful due to the double RNG determining hit as an extra X amount of luck can lower true hit by more than 1% per point.
Knoll/Kent: Mediocre SPD is as much as a culprit as poor LUK for low evasion. It's not like Sain is dodging much more noticeably than Kent, and he has double the LUK.
Prissy-Poo/Nin-Nin: High SPD inflates the value of LUK. Much bigger difference between 50 and 70 avo than, say, 30 and 50 avo.
Now, true hit is a sigmoidal curve, so it can actually either deflate or inflate the value of avoid more than displayed hit would suggest. Now, this is probably a pretty crazy complicated formula (and honestly, I don't remember how to represent a sigmoidal curve as an equation), so I don't know the exact point where it breaks even. Typically, however, true hit tends to devalue the value of avoid at extremes (90%+ or 10%-) and super-value it at "average" values (40-60% range). Anyways, enough of my rambling, let me get to another point.
Each point of avoidance is typically worth more than the last. To make an extreme and obvious point, I'm going to borrow a "time to live" mechanic often used in WoW tank theorycrafting (I know, I know, leave me be...I don't play it anymore). If 5 avoidance reduces your chance to be hit from 10% to 5%, your time to live essentially doubles (200% of its original value), but if it only brings your chance to be hit from 100% to 95%, your time to live only increases to 105.23% of its original value. So, for characters that already are reaching 40-60% hit rates from enemies due to SPD alone, an extra 15-25 avoid from LUK means a hell of a lot more than it would to a low SPD character (say Dorcas, who might have 70%+ hit rates from enemies). And since 40-60% range actually is the region where true hit that most inflates each point of avoid, LUK is boosted even more.
Now, following this reason, we can conjecture a couple of points:
1. Hard modes will devalue avoid, simply because enemy hit rates will increase; an enemy who might have a 40-60% chance to hit on NM will then have a 55-75% chance to hit on HM, which essentially decrease the time to live each point of avoid gives. This point alone will make SPD/LUK less valuable. However, some characters might value SPD more (think Bartre in HHM needing SPD not to be doubled) or less (think Edward in FE10), and LUK may be worth more depending on if HM noticeably increases enemy crit rates and/or gives more enemies killers.
2. FE11 and FE12, which I've noticed decrease the amount of hit/avoid given per stat of SPD/LUK/SKL, heavily decreases the value of avoid in general, for much the same reason as #1. I know IS was trying to stabilize hit rates, but it really took a bat to LUK's value of a stat, relegating it to near worthless unless crit evade is necessary.
Hard modes in FE11/FE12 combine points #1 and #2 into one giant shitstorm, and the enemy hit bonus in Lunatic mode FE12 pisses in LUK's face.
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Then I remembered you're in like, Canada.
Pity G_H for all of us, 13th. Pity him. For he knows nothing of the thing we call the Sun in winter. He is forced to play FE while trapped in a giant ice cube.
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Not all stats are equal in equal quantities. Is there a problem with that?
Yeah, mainly because, if you ever look at the later FEs where they try to balance character growths by total/sum percentages (in FE7's case, it's like roughly 220-330% total growths, the lower end being prepromotes and the higher end being Nino), they always seem to make the assumption that all stats (even HP) are roughly equal in value. As long as LUK sucks in comparison per point, then characters that have a high LUK growth and standard total growths will typically have combat problems if the LUK growth takes from SPD/MAG/STR or another high-value stat. On a side note, this phenomenon also partially explains why warriors (who have high HP growths, often at the expense of a much more valuable stat) tend to suck in GBA games.
The only high LUK characters I like off the top of my head in FE7 are Florina (LUK isn't quite so crappy when you have high SPD, since each point of AVO is more valuable than the last and that means high SPD tends to artificially inflate LUK's value as a stat), Wil (who I like for reasons completely unrelated to his LUK, and he'd be much better if some of his LUK growth went to SPD growth), and I think Nino (who has high growths all around).
Yeah, that's why there's a problem with that. No stat should suck in comparison to others, anyways...it's not good design and saying "well, LUK shouldn't be as good because it's called luck" seems like a lazy cop-out.
OH MY GOD IT WOULD MEAN MEG IS SEXY! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I'm...too sexy for my shirt? Too sexy, it hurts? /blinded
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Well, the crit evasion thing could be easy to fix. Just put up a reasonable number (i.e. Don't overcook this) of enemy SMs/Snipers/Berserkers/Killer weapon users.
I think that creates more problems than it solves. Can you imagine a ton of H3 FE12/H5 FE11 enemies running around everything with killers? /shudder
I, for one, don't like playing the "Will you be OHKO'd?" game of chance; it's alright if it's one or two strategically placed guys that you can nullify if you're smart, but you can't throw enough in there to make LUK ultra-useful without screwing over gameplay in the process.
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Just a few things about C2:
- After the initial axe-user is killed, I find Draug the best to plug up the northern bridge. I think the thieves can't damage him at all.
- For the cavs, I do mostly the same as you. I think I might have Caeda go at the very end of one of the cav's range with a Wing Spear, but I'm not sure.
- The boss is mostly enemy phase only. However, you might be able to speed things up by having Ogma attack him right after you map save. The boss has like a 49% chance to hit Ogma or something, and Ogma can do a fair amount of damage to the boss (I think more than he heals for from the throne). It definately helps to kill him on the next turn.
- I found it safest if everybody travels as a pack along the northern route. Splitting up forces until just before the very end just asked for somebody to die.
- If you buy an iron axe on C1 (I did just in case) and shove it into the convoy, you can have Darros retrieve it from the convoy on the turn he's recruited by Marth. At least it allows him to chip.
IIRC, I...8 turned this chapter.
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I'm actually going to bring up a new point (I think it's new, this thread is LONG):
What in the world should we do to improve LUK? It seems like such an anemic stat....and don't say "add more devil weapons".
Since FE11 and FE12 really toned down evasion, I was hoping for LUK's evasion boost to be brought up to that of SPD and for it to give a crit bonus equal to (LUK/2).
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Having just downloaded it last night, I've accidentally started to enjoy playing FE12 Lunatic mode. As such, I'll probably be putting this run on hold (as in, this log is not dead, I'm just giving FE7 a break after beating it like 3-4 and a half times).
I promise that I will try to get back to it.
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Looking forward to this. Keep it up.
In all honesty, I tried doing H5 multiple times, but I kept getting my ass kicked on the first map, so I don't have much else to say.
It gets easier after the first map...trust me. Then easier after the second...then easier after the third. Reclassing options and tons of good units on C2, C3, and C4 (Barst, Cord, Ogma, and Castor to a lesser extent) are making C5 kind of mediocre in difficulty (which is what I'm on atm...I'm juggling between FE7, FE11, and FE12 playthroughs atm...and personally, FE12 is quickly becoming my favorite. DAMN YOU NINTENDO FOR NOT MAKING IT IN ENGLISH!).
Ahem, anyways, give C1 a chance again. If you can get past it, you're golden. I'm posting turn counts that are faster than some people in H3, which aren't too hard once you're smart enough to realize that Wind Spear +4 MT forged pretty much makes Caeda one-shot almost every cav and knight ON H5.
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So, recently, I decided to try and relatively low-turn H5 as a side project while working on my S rank HHM log. I was actually a little proud to do have done C1 in 13 turns. You wound me, General_Horace...you wound me.
Anyways, good luck on the log!
[FE11&12] A wacky Archanea superdraft.
in Fire Emblem Drafts
Posted · Edited by Kngt_Of_Titania
I reclass Darros to Mercenary/Hero.
I reclass Katarina to Falco.
I give Minerva to Vicious Sal.
I give Wolf to General Horace.
I draft Hunter/Horseman! Frey.
I draft Cav/SM! Matthis