Green Poet

Poly, please start existing... I don't think this is always the case. Kirsche's take on it is confusing though. But Riptor's proposal assumes that you are just a miller...? Please explain. The extent to which Riptor is tunnelling Kirsche is pretty scummy. Riptor emphasizing how Kirsche is not cleared by the modconfirm and his pursuing a Kirsche lynch because he's the least harmful mislynch (my paraphrase) do not explain why Kirsche is actually scummy. They're justifications that you would raise during deadline consolidation (or on D2 after lynched miller!Kirsche has flipped town...) but do not expose any scum intent. This is quite a loaded statement. Mislynches are not a win for town. You're equating what you assert to be the least harmful mislynch to a scum lynch. To a lesser extent, I also question the value of lynching one of the more active players in a game with as many inactives as ours. And speaking of which, my vote on Arctic Fox is clearly doing nothing... ##Unvote ##Vote: Riptor

I also think Elie's just been skimming, since his reply to Refa didn't take into account the latest mod confirmation that miller/godfather effects don't count as tampering. But from what I can tell it isn't deliberate, so it's not something to vote someone over imo.

Not those exact words, no. But the response was a confirmation for scum!Kirsche in my mind, due to how I considered "guaranteed accurate investigation results" to mean "millers don't exist." It's probably just a difference in definitions as Via suggested earlier. Could I have permission to quote just those two messages, the question and the answer, from my role PM? It'd probably clear this up more simply than I can with paraphrasing.

##Vote: Arctic Fox @Refa - I see, makes sense. Toren, who do you think is scum? Thoughts on recent posts?

That's my assumption as well. Not at all, don't worry.

"All investigation results are guaranteed to be accurate" precludes standard millers from existing. Refa's and my post weren't confirmation that a miller could exist (at the time, they confirmed the complete opposite) so, not seeing where these confirmations were, I asked him to explain. Didn't like how Arctic Fox stopped by to post but didn't express a thought on the game. Proto's question reads like he's trying to see if Kirsche's miller is non-standard, out of disbelief that we'd otherwise have confirmed scum a day into the game. I didn't ask a similar question because I was very confident in scum!Kirsche upon receiving the answer to my role pm question and didn't want to give him any outs. Elie's post just makes me think he didn't read mine. A bit miffed on how the modconfirm went from essentially "millers don't exist" to "millers might exist." I'm just thinking on that and waiting for Toren and Refa's replies to my questions.

Who confirmed this prior to Elie's post?

Umm, okay. I'll defer to the newer ruling. ##Unvote Where did you hear this?

I asked Enigmar via role pm to clarify on the second rule, specifically on if it means that all investigation results are guaranteed to be accurate, and got yes as the answer.

##Unvote ##Vote: kirsche

##Vote: Riptor hi

confirming

/in

/sub

re: mayor I'm pretty sure I've seen at least one mafia mayor on SF before. Dunno why I'm being auto-cleared for my claim, especially since my votes don't explicitly show up as worth two on mod-posted votals. The only way for people to be sure that my role is legit is to see me hammer someone from L-2 that I'm voting Freyjadour's posts are solid. I'm assuming he's played mafia before but not on SF, so using general tells and rolespec like he's doing is what I would expect to see. Ocean's recent three posts seem focused almost wholly on responding to people. His #459 and #460 are lengthy responses to Freyjadour and Refa respectively, and then he votes Junko based on (as far as I could tell) this one line: I may be missing something but it looks like Ocean just spent the better part of three posts in responses and one line on a vague Junko vote? "I don't need to talk about it because Shin already took care of it" makes the push look half-hearted I'm good at reading mafia games

iirc Elie was similarly inactive for the first two or three phases after subbing into Batmafia as town, so I can see this play coming from him as either alignment I'm going to read Ocean's latest three posts now as it looked like today's consolidation options are either him or Zerosabers

Voting Elie is lazy because it's easy to call someone out on being inactive. Considering that (prior to his last post) Elie's posts were basically a line long each. I'm doubtful that those who had voted Elie found any scum intent in those posts.

Unable to read or post in detail right now. I will be around for phase end and will be catching up before it.

Zerosabers has a particular fixation on not putting people at L-1. Ocean vote is bad because putting someone at L-1 is not necessarily scummy and Zero doesn't look at the context of Ocean's vote or try to examine his intent when he did so It's easy to find someone who made an L-1 vote and vote them on an arbitrary policy. It doesn't sit well with me at all that Zero is factually wrong in saying that Ocean didn't tell anyone his vote was L-1; his vote candidly says "THIS IS L-1" in caps Too many of her reads are null/"they're too hard to read" while some of them translate into scumreads for unexplained reasons, while her townreads are unsupported by quotes and feel like they could have easily just as been arbitrarily picked. Feels like Zerosabers just wanted to fill up a listpost on the playerlist, and chose easy scumreads while repeating others' pre-established cases on said scumreads. Paper points out in #410 that scum killing Cam does not necessarily implicate Junko, but rather could have been motivated by the lack of general suspicion on Cam. I see the logic in that. ofc that also may not matter if Cam and Boron were driven by not-mafia and Cam's NK was unintentional, or if Cam was vigged and NK was ??? In other words, the crumb trail of Cam's death is more tenuous to draw conclusions from than I originally assumed when casing Junko over it Refa informing me that Via actually did claim prompts me to revise my previous statement: scum did not have an incentive to prioritize Via over Cam for the NK, which makes Cam's NK less unnatural and less likely to be because of Cam's posting. Responding to Boron's case is losing purpose. I am only able to, and have been repeatedly responding in, one of two ways: "no, I don't feel that I actually did X scummy thing" "yes, I did do that because I am uninformed town and not a perfect scumhunter." This has only led to either misleading town!Boron to tunnel more, or feeding scum!Boron more to misconstrue Paper has been pretty sporadic on SB reads but town!Paper is likely due to increased activity and read elaboration If Cam and Boron were driven then SB is less likely to be Cam's killer than a scum ninja. Town!SB is likely by virtue of this. Coby subbing out makes me believe town!Coby due to the likelihood of force sub and consequential unlikelihood of scum!Coby active lurking. Reading Ocean's ISO gives me scum vibes because he looks like he's attributing much of his behavior to the necessity of end-of-day consolidation rather than voluntarily pushing people for cases of his own or showing much initiative/desire to lynch scumreads e.g. this unvote is scummy because it tosses control of his vote to the circumstances of the deadline wagons and disavows responsibility for voting/discussing his own scumreads ##Unvote ##Vote: Zerosabers

Well shit. I just checked, and you're right. I'm going to take a bit to consider this. Content post coming within the next two hours as usual.

At the time, I had only weaker, less precise, D1-level reads, so the Via case didn't have much competition to get my vote. Via's statements looked worse to me than anyone else's, because the only other person who I'd considered possibly scummy was Junko, who I was still going back and forth about. I see. I could have contributed more and pushed Via more, true, if I had taken more time to really look over everything he said later and pick at it. But I did not, and now Via has subbed out, so I am unable to make up for that. Do you still think that I am avoiding pushing cases, though? I think my recent post is relatively diverse in scumreads, which I'd ask you to take into account if you wish to maintain a case on me.

ebwop

This is pretty empty but not alignment-indicative imo. If your scumread on Shin has not changed, why is Coby more vote-worthy than Shin? Does the fact that he avoided posting for D1 and only posted briefly in D2 make him scummier than someone whose posts you have been able to analyze at length? re: Boron's post(s). Cam was scummy ED1 because he voted SB, repeatedly stated that he thought SB was scummier than other people he was actively discussing, and yet had not given concrete reasons to begin with as to why SB was scummy. I did not have issues with Cam's later posts, because he pursued Junko instead throughout much of page 9 with posts and evidence that were all solidly constructed and genuine-looking. I did not push the case because his new content did not warrant that. This is correct. I did not think you were likely to be scum and would not have included you in a D1 lynch priority. What I imagine is that Refa saw that I was continuing a back-and-forth with you over posting semantics and whatnot, which looked like me not wanting to drop the "case." I don't think it was poorly explained. Via's posts were lengthy but not substantial in terms of game-relevant or player-diverse content. They looked padded. When he brought up my case, what he said was just this: In other words, he had not yet entirely read the reasons for my voting him. He did not provide me with anything to refute, then or later, so I don't see why you have an issue with my case on Via. I can see what you mean by this. Yes, when I voted Via, my scumread on Cam had diminished. I only had one singularly confident scumread at any given time during D1. I agree with this part of your case on me, and will try to be more perceptive so that I'm not only focusing on a single scumread. I'm not sure what else to say on that matter. --- Clarinets lynch analysis --- I think that this post by Clarinets was suspect because it began by with "I'm packing a lot of content into this" but most of the post's length derived from quoted text rather than original text. I probably would've been on board with the Clarinets end-of-day wagon had I been around, actually. Oceanbourne's #209 is good. Could you please start explaining the conclusions you're drawing from each of SB's posts? I feel like each time I see Paper mentioning SB he references what SB would or would not do and just leaves it at that, as though it's a read that I and the rest of the playerlist are supposed to be confident about? I can't analyze Paper's cases because they all originate from, like, unspoken past experiences/meta and it's not possible to say anything about Paper's alignment from them :/ Via continually insisting that people should throw their votes to the Clarinets wagon instead of his own feels off. Why should they not vote you? His repeating "just don't vote me" and stressing that self-preservation to that extent makes me surprised he wasn't NK'd. If I were scum and Via were not, I'd have elected to kill him because his end-of-the-day desperation looks like an attempt to preserve a town PR without claiming. wrt the final wagon: Via being on the wagon is justifiable. He was the first one on it and felt that Clarinets' case on him was bad. SB being on the wagon is less obviously justifiable. His vote post has no explanation for it, so I can only assume consolidation. Same goes for Paper. Elie hasn't been reading the game and his vote on the wagon isn't alignment-indicative. SB looks like the most likely scum on the wagon because Paper and Elie consistently have been making brief/infrequent posts, but SB's reads and votes had been substantiated prior to the wagon. --- Thoughts on Day 2 --- Cam dying points to Junko being probable scum. Cam's main push for D1 was Junko, and didn't case anyone else as hard for the rest of the day due to consolidation shenanigans. Two decoy-type roles are unlikely to exist imo. Now that I'm reading it a second time, Junko's voteswitch to Coby is sticks out to me because the Shin case that he's dropping for it isn't highly supported to begin with; Junko's first D2 vote considers none of his expressed D1 reads and is immediately replaced by what I consider to be an easy voteswitch on Coby, who isn't even particularly likely to be scum based on the brevity and predictability of his post. This role-related reason is enough to override all of what you were thinking about SB for the length of D1...? Lynch priority is Junko >>> SB > Refa (b/c Via slot) >>> Coby > Paper TL;DR reasoning for the priority: I agree with Cam's D1 case on Junko, and I believe that his flip highly incriminates Junko. Junko's Coby voteswitch is only slightly scummy. I think that SB was the likeliest scum on the early Clarinets wagon due to Via's mutual vote being expressly justified and Paper/Elie having the precedent of extremely sparse explanations for their votes, and SB's claim is incongruous with Cam's flip. Refa's content looks fine so far but I think that Via was probable scum based on the urgency of his late-D1 wagon-forming, and the fact that he was killed today despite appearing like he was trying to defend a PR. Coby's vote is bad and brief. However, as I said above (somewhere...) this doesn't constitute a scumread on him. Paper still isn't explaining why he thinks SB is town/scum and suddenly believes that the possibility of role discrepancy outweighs everything that his intuition/meta told him about SB from D1. This doesn't constitute a scumread either but it's getting to the point where I would really like to emphasize the difficulty of seeing the reasoning of Paper's votes. ##Vote: Junko

Reading thread starting from my last post yesterday, and will work on a content post when that's finished. I'll be around for the next two hours or so if anyone online now has stuff to ask me directly before I poof for another 24-ish hours.