Green Poet
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Everything posted by Green Poet
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Ugghhhhhhh. Don't remind me >.< I honestly felt as though it'd be worth it because I was thinking you were maf and he was just as he'd claimed... bleh. Hopefully my judgment improves with experience. Was it that you were aiming to pre-emptively betray mafia? And that whole stream of votes you were posting towards the end of the day was seriously scary. I must've spent an hour or so trying to see if you were speaking in some sort of code...
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I hadn't even considered this... looks like we should've WIFOMed it and had Wen fullclaim as the "proof" he kept talking about, then. Oh, lol. I was actually thinking about being all "well, you (Eury) were one of my biggest townreads D1, so you suddenly vote switching to me made it feel more significant to me than votes from anyone else would be." Then I read that to myself and realized it would probably be better just never to answer you on that point >.>
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Oh... I thought I'd been pretty convincing about it :/ I actually got the feeling you weren't taking the claim very seriously because I'd crumbed bomb earlier in saying that "masonry isn't lethal." Poorly executed gambit looking back on it, I guess. Hmm, that's true.
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Breezy maf MVP!
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You'd have died upon doing so, actually. But really, GG; you had me fooled. Also, I'm wondering why Refa started playing the way he did towards the end of D1? Is that usual for him? As for those who have issues with my play - I apologize if you were upset by them. I'm not going to try and justify my actions, as I can see that'll simply lead to argument right now. Again, sorry if you saw my play to be poor; it's all I have to say on that.
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So we can out our real roles now? And I really, really am sorry, Shinori.
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Alright. Talked it over with Wen, and I have enough confidence in my case and this lynch. ##Unvote ##Vote: Eurykins
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Terrador, are those four people whose characters you named confirmed by your PM to be town or not? You initially referred to them as "townies," and I would like to know what made you consider them this way.
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With the exception of this bit: I agree with the logic behind what you've said (I already established that Terra's reads need to be correct; we do not give him the benefit of the doubt if he hits townie). I forgot to take Sky's claim into account when thinking up these contingencies, and can see now that it's flawed in that regard. Disregard my idea there for now, then. Back to the drawing board...
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Eury, what do you think about my proposition for Terrador? Do you really think potentially sacrificing one townie isn't worth the confirmation of a nightvig's alignment and the possibility of killing one mafioso?
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Huh, I honestly wasn't expecting this level of cooperation. Okay, who do you think we can consolidate a lynch on today? Euklyd's general read was ambiguous, whereas Mitsuki would've been a very implicating kill if you were caught. You managed to convince a lot of us here that Euklyd was a misvig made with good intentions, whereas you would not be able to do this on a proven mayor. As things stand, this is as likely a scenario as your current claims being true. Speaking of which, could you just fullclaim? Your initially not telling us the four names of the people you need dead for your first wincon seems like you understating your role again to avoid being lynched, and it only makes you seem scummier over time. One of the things I'd like to know specifically is if those four people are explicitly confirmed town by your PM. pedit: Now, just how did I guess that Eury would vote you...? Going to parse through that wall in just a bit.
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Um. I'm actually getting somewhat scummy vibes from this. You don't account for the possibility that you are simply scum, trying to compose a fakeclaim justifying you being caught performing N1's nightkill. That, and your current top scumreads (Sky, Eury and Junko) could very well be town, and you killing them N2 is justifiable simply by saying "I stated before that they were my scumreads so implicitly that would comprise my kill list." TL;DR - I'm not actually at all concerned that you're an SK moreso than simply fakeclaiming scum. We'll see, I guess :/ Just sayin', I may have knowledge as to whom all of these are. If you kill me tonight, you risk losing the possibility of discovering this information as well as town's greatest asset in winning this game, which would severely hinder your chances of achieving either of your wincons. look guys he was lying, such obvscum
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I've already coordinated with Wen to a certain capacity and will use insomnia as needed in order to discreetly draw the protection I think I need towards me. I think we should discontinue publicly organizing our plans for tonight's protection, though.
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Could a mod confirm or deny whether or not it was stated that the only factions in this game are SEES and Nyxists? I get the impression this was stated somewhere, and I'd disqualified the possibility of ITPs existing in my reads because of that. wrt Terrador. This worries me. The implication here is that you win if two more townies die, and no one here but yourself knows who these townies are. You seem to phrase this claim as though you only learn whom the townies are posthumously, but none of us can confirm the truth behind this. It's possible that you know the four townies you need to win, or perhaps there are even only three, and you simply aren't telling us. The fact that you've already demonstrated your capacity to fakeclaim parts of your role makes me apprehensive to trust your motivations. I think that it's likely that your role is close to what you have stated, but if I were you, I would be working to achieve the first win condition rather than the second by virtue of the number of town deaths so far over mafia deaths. In any case, I think that a lynch on you today is unfavorable to town. However: If you claim an uncontested kill on scum tomorrow morning, then town should accept your motivations as town-friendly and that you are working towards your second wincon. If there are two or more townie deaths tomorrow morning, you should be lynched, or I will simply vig you if I am still alive. Tell me if you think this proposition sounds fair to you, as a concise and reasonable way to judge your choice of wincon.
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I have this terrible feeling in the back of my mind that all the people posting walls are actually just town arguing with each other in circles and all the less active people are scum waiting for us to kill each other off ugh Looked over Eury's reads briefly, and I've only got two comments so far. 1. Analysis of Junko seems solid. But where is he now? I feel like he's posted extremely little D2, despite being easily the most frequent poster D1. 2. Maybe my own opinion is biased because of his vote on me, but I'm surprised that kirsche is a townread to you. Is there anyone other than Junko who believes kirsche is likely scum? @everyone, we really need to put more pressure on Breezy :/
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No one would vote Breezy naturally at that time, so it's possible that scum!Breezy put votes on himself so as to make himself seem innocent. His thought on it is that it's possibly a reaction test or artificial prodvote to him, ceding that he's a generally inactive player, which in itself isn't all that telling. Then again, it's equally possible that the influencer isn't Breezy, just wanted to get SB lynched, and additionally chose to randomly throw Breezy some votes to try and throw us off-track. Why do you ask this, though, Marth? What are your thoughts?
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That reminds me, I never explicitly put together a Eury case beyond SB target spec. [spoiler=Eury case] A lot of my suspicion comes from her vote on me, and her reaction to my claim. Up until that point, I was fairly confident in my townread of her, and I thought she likewise had a townread on me as well. This discusses my confirmation of Wen's action in a doubtful light, and in the same post as her vote on me, as though it constitutes a reason to vote me. Having suspicions towards someone because they have an unrefuted claim on someone else's action doesn't strike me as particularly townie. She also suggests that SB targeted Euk or Mitsuki, which I'd stated was unlikely due to the fact that the entire SB speculation revolves around the assumption that he got himself killed through targeting scum. This is far more likely than there being three mafia kills or two kills and one town!Terra, which would have to be the case if SB went for either of those two, and it feels like this is more selective reasoning than an oversight on Eury's part. She seems to suspect me for waving away the possibility that I'm scum and was SB's target, thought I'd explained that I cleared myself along with the other three of SB's D1 scumreads. It's not an exclusive argument, and again, seems biased. Afterwards, her three posts following my claim focus more on Shinori than I find is reasonable. If I claim to have killed FFM, and no daySKs exist, then there's no ambiguity to my role, so why does my reasoning behind kill Shinori actually matter anymore? It's not as though I could possibly have investigation results on Shinori or something like that, so her continued argumentation over Shinori being a poor kill is concerning to me. All this being said, I don't think her reactions have been as telling as those of someone like kirsche. I just think that her vote on me was relatively unprompted and too sudden of a departure from her original townread on me, and that her insistence on discussing Shinori seems like an attempt to contest my alignment when there was no reason to. There are better lynch targets today imo, though Eury may be the most viable if Sky and Terra come to agree.
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Ah, thank you!
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Oh, that reminds me. Where exactly is this game queue listed? I've been hearing about it a lot but haven't found a link to it in the HQ or info dump threads.
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Typo. Sorry, can't help myself.
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Looking through this thing that's becoming a Terra/Sky 1v1, and I'm seeing fair points on both sides. However... With these, you're conceding that scum is all but guaranteed to exist between yourself and Eury, and then stating your townread on Eury. I don't think this is a slip, but it is certainly a contradiction. Eury's reaction to my claim still doesn't sit well with me, and I wouldn't be terribly opposed to a lynch of either Eury and Terra right now. And again, I find the chance that town has one vig far more likely than two. Actually, this makes me consider: Scum!Terrador, being a generally approved townie D1, could carry out the NK against Euk N1, claim odd-nightvig D2 so that he can survive another day, let someone else carry out the N2 nightkill, and kill another townie N3. However, this means that scum!Terrador doesn't actually have a lethal role, and we have two mafia killers plus a factional kill on our hands. Town!Terrador, however, still feels unlikely to me, as that would give town 2 1/2 kills per day/night phase... As for Junko: The contradiction about being ignorance about night actions while later claiming to have submitted a night action still stands. A plausible explanation is that scum!Junko was told to fakeclaim doc so as to draw out a doc CC. This would be passable because he would come under the least fire for early claiming than any of his experienced scumbuddies If a doc does CCs Junko later down the line, I would advise initiating massclaim, as I see no power roles left that could be town-aligned. Now, about Breezy. It's occurred to me that it might be the case that he's new to this game, and thus sheeped a Refa case and preemptively cleared a lot of people he objectively couldn't have, because of inexperience. Can anyone confirm how many games he's played, or offer meta on him? kirsche = Breezy > Eury > Terra > Sky = Junko = Marth. Sky's fallen in my priority because his contributions on this page feel fairly well-reasoned and townie to me, and suffice to say I agree with him in some parts.
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Blue's claim feels sort of unprompted to me. I wasn't really buying the cases on him up till that point, but it seems sort of extraneous to claim at that time. He seemed to imply that we were in massclaim too, which we aren't. Null read on him for now; still trying to find a particularly good Marth case in people's ISOs that I actually do agree with. Most of my reads are on page 46. Essentially, I'm voting Breezy because his lurking, generally content-less posts and questionably logical attempts at piecing together scumspects feels very scummy to me. Also, I maintain that at least one person between Eury and Terra are likely scum. I ruled out those other three because they weren't nearly as active nor towny-looking D1 as Eury or Terra. Those two had posted walls and had been openly considered townreads by most. When you're looking for a prospective mason target, you want someone whom you're certain is going to make the most of your OC.
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I'd prefer the former; I'm presently trying to read people as well but having new stuff sooner always helps.
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I pretended to be confused, of course. We already knew that Terrador was claiming nightvig, not dayvig, before I vigged Shinori. My kill on Shinori was made with the intent to directly kill scum, not to have grounds of implicating Terrador later (I mean, really, I would've just CCed and straight-up shot Terrador if that was the case.) Is there a particular reason you're interested in my motivations in killing Shinori? I'm not quite sure why you're trying to assert how poor the kill was; I see it and I apologize for that. But nothing about this contradicts my claim, seeing as I'd already killed FFM. You're right, and I'm sorry for coming off as aggressive. Could we start seeing past Shinori, now, though?
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Logic? Sure. Consider this: -There are no daySKs in the game, as Poly stated. It is solely SEES vs. Nyxists. -The chances of two dayvigs is not only incredibly unlikely due to balance reasons, but also the fact that mine was the only kill that occurred D1. From this, we can safely conclude that there is only one town dayvig. I am claiming this role, and will shoot any CCers first thing tomorrow to substantiate this claim. -We know for a fact that I killed FFM, as mafia had no reason to do so and we know a daySK does not exist. -Knowing this, one can conclude that the same person killed Shinori, being myself. So, barring CCs that I will kill, my claim aligns with all of my kills thus far. There's no logical reason to doubt my claim, and I would strongly advise that you unvote now. I'm not sure why you haven't already. Regarding Shinori, he was definitely a very poor kill... retrospectively. I collaborated with Wen as to whether or not Shinori struck him as scummy as well, and we came to a mutual agreement. We based this decision on his aggressiveness (which did not line up with his town play at all as doc in EO2 when we was under pressure), and his repetition of sentiments such as "Don't even think about it; none of you are going to lynch me" or "I don't think I should defend myself, since I'm not going to be lynched anyway," and most telling, "I'm not going to be killed unless it's by some vig who doesn't like me." Can you honestly tell me that you think Shinori was contributing reads other than his one on the then-doomed Refa, and that his play didn't merit being killed? I'm leaning towards doubting its validity. (If you ISO me, you'll recall that I expressed immediate and fairly strong disbelief towards Terrador's claim.) Consider this: Scenario 1: Terrador is town nightvig. This gives us two kills plus one lynch per day/night, and scum has two kills (FFM, factional kill.) Scenario 2: Terrador is scum nightvig. This gives us one kill plus one lynch per day/night, and scum has three kills (FFM, Terrador, factional kill.) Honestly, three kills a phase by us sounds... implausible. But it doesn't automatically rule out Terrador's claim, so I'm not going to make a case on him solely based on this rolespec.
