Green Poet
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Everything posted by Green Poet
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Can confirm that Wen tracked Terrador. Not sure what Junko's trying to do... night actions =/= profile visits.
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I think this is potentially telling, about both Terrador and Marth. But I'm not sure a Sky lynch is worth it just based on this hunch, as Sky's last post seems logical and not something that mafia would want to speculate to the thread about. Everything since his "I'm dropping my SB case" is actually looking solid to me... which is confusing. I wouldn't try to barter information with Terrador and yourself, whom I believe to be town... if anything, I would've tried to coax night action information out of my scumreads. I asked for thoughts from those particular four because, as stated previously, I felt that I would be able to take what they said at face value more so than anyone else. Unfortunately, I've said as much as I can without giving scum information they can use.
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I thought that I would be able to take most of what they said at face value more than others, based on the reasoning that I feel that some of them are likely town, and the others are somewhat lurkers whose posts would be significant by virtue of scarcity, and also easiest to parse through/ISO. If any of them were town investigators, I would want to carefully consider who they commented on today, as they would likely have stronger convictions in weaker cases that are biased because of their results. I see. I ISO'd SB and personally can't see anywhere where he claimed he had a jail/isolate ability to go with his masonry, though. 1. Poly didn't seem to have a problem with it in PMs, though... eh, I think it'll be alright. 2. I'm not trying to crumb town-friendly ITP, if there was ambiguity in that regard. (Hopefully) final clarification on this issue: what I posted at night doesn't concern myself much more than others. It is something that town might be able to benefit from after certain flips towards the end of the game, and its usefulness depends on information that will likely be revealed in this game, not knowledge of Persona. Eury, thoughts on anyone other than myself?
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@Eury - I posted that dog bit as close to the end of the night phase as I could, so that scum would have less time to change their night actions in reaction to it, and hopefully not see it at all. Its potential usefulness relies upon the assumption that scum thinks a certain way and makes certain actions, and I didn't want them to change their actions based on what I posted. Also, I got it approved by Elie beforehand. It actually isn't flavorspec so much as something that will help prove certain people's alignments later down the line based on flips. I mean exactly what I said; no one, regardless of their alignment, should try to kill me. Masonry isn't lethal.
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1. Okay; no worries. 2. Arguably so, but why not humor me? I'm not asking you to state that BBM's thought process was scummy, or to self-incriminate in any way. Consider BBM as a separate mind from yours, and you could find something potentially telling. 3. That was in regards to piecing together night actions, because I had a feeling that hearing from those four people specifically would mean the most. Naturally I do want to hear from you today as well; I want to hear from everybody today. Could you explain what you mean by the bolded?
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Going through the associative reads of last night's deaths. Tons of Refa speculation that I'm omitting. Euk focuses a lot on getting Sky lynched. Possibly riding a safety wagon, but it's worth considering. Mitsuki doesn't like Junko nor Wen, but as I've stated before, the latter is almost certainly not scum. She responds to kirsche but doesn't seem to imply that she thinks he's scum. Brings up a good point about Paladin possibly being cleared if Shinori is scum, and has a solid case on Shinori that was unchallenged (?) SB iterates a few times that Eury, Mistuki, myself, and Terrador are likely townies. I'm not seeing him make too many scumreads, likely because he had his hands full defending himself. Lets me post in-thread at night. Since you're here, Junko - thoughts on the night?
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I think one SK + two lethal mafia, much less three lethal mafia, is unlikely, and if a townie inadvertently contributed to one of last night's deaths using a drive or other form of redirect, I would advise them to claim now and explain their choice of targets. Likewise, if SB successfully masoned anybody last night, they should claim now. The effect is useless now that he's dead, and we can use the inevitable CCs along with other outed actions to his mason target to narrow down who was not masoned, and thus likely to be scum. I myself have infinite Insomnia, which I obviously used last night. I may have used other action(s), and would prefer to hear from Eury, Breezy, Terrador and Shinori before I reveal anything.
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Possibly significant at the start of the next phase: "Woof woof, bark bark; I'm a dog."
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I think he means "tomorrow" there as in irl time. If he does offer proof, he'll do so doing the next day phase. Pretty much... meh.
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Probably heading off to sleep shortly. Some thoughts, in case I don't happen to return: @kirsche - yeah, I understand that you hadn't really gotten the chance to look thoroughly through Eury and the others' reads. Regarding Terrador, I assumed that you didn't have a problem with his posts collectively because he wasn't on your lynch priority, whereas people like myself and Wen were when you still hadn't read all of our posts. So I'd hope I'm not misrepping so much as making the general assumption that people you haven't raised issues with yet are people whose posts you "don't have a problem with," namely Terrador. wrt BBM, I wasn't asking you to justify nor defend his thought process; just asking what your own independent thoughts on them were. I may be being preemptive in suspecting you because of your comments on others' posts in terms of what I see to be semantics rather than their reads. I'll wait for some more of your thoughts on the walls and such. More importantly, I'm very interested in what Wen has to say next. I'm hesitant for a Wen lynch because I think I have a good idea of what he plans on proving tomorrow. Regardless, Refa's our lynch today. Does anyone have stuff that still needs saying in this day phase?
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Town should've listened to you for most things, actually; I think you had all of us figured out around D2 already.
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Nice catch, Shinori. Anyway, if everyone's resolved, I think we should lynch Refa now. Votals, please?
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Did Refa ever actually fullclaim?
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Well, that's certainly more effort from Shinori than I've seen when he was scumbuddies with me in ITTD. Who else here presently supports a Wen case? I'm seeing Junko, SB, Shinori so far.
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Just kinda meh on Shinori right now. I know he has a tendency to be inactive regardless of his alignment. There are better lynch candidates today, but I'd like to see more original reads from him later on (I mean, I already brought up the FFM/Refa distancing quite a few pages ago). Interested in seeing Breezy's take on things. Why do you think that the votal influencer decided to choose you over all of the other inactives to bump on ED1? Who are your scumreads now?
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Junko, what's your lynch priority right now?
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I believe Rapier was thinking of making an Ace Attorney mafia a couple months back? You could talk to him about that.
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Would like to hear kirsche's thoughts on BBM's few posts. Maybe his most recent post was just inattentive scumhunting, but it strikes me that a majority of what he's said simply aren't indicative of scummy intent, and contradict most of the established town/scum reads out there at present. This is based on votal influencer speculation, right? It's entirely possible that the influencer was anonymous at the time of them using the ability, and this list is inherently excluding them.
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Refa > kirsche = Sky >>> Shinori >>> Junko = SB. There's so much that strikes me as wrong with kirsche's latest reads. [spoiler=kirsche stuff] wrt his read on Mistuki, he criticizes her suggestions/requested information as bad because it's trying to think from a mafioso's point of view. Speculation isn't inherently bad. He doesn't comment on her reads nor the content of her posts, but rather on what her posts are. She mentions that the influencer's ability could be arbitrary, and kirsche attempts to weave this into something that looks bad by saying that Mistuki's implicitly "asking for credit"... I don't see it, nor do I see how it would be decidedly scummy even if she for some reason were. This is a pretty empty suspicion. wrt his read on Shinori, he simply agrees with him that people should post more concisely. I fail to see how Shinori's inactivity doesn't merit a mention, nor any actual game-related content. Your only comment on him is assent on post logistics, and apparently this is good enough to clear him on your lynch priority. wrt his read on myself, he claims that my suspicion on SB is scummy because he's my "only" scumread after 17 pages (it's not; I expressed suspicion of FFM, Sky and Mitsuki by then, the former of which who then turned out to be scum), and that SB actually did claim his wincon before being pressured (which in reality he only did jokingly, and tried to dismiss later as a joke). None of the actions and reasoning that five others had called town-worthy actions are taken into consideration. wrt his read on Eury, it's literally just one quote pointing out one instance of an apparent oversight in the timing of Mitsuki's doublevoter claim. Is that really anything to mention over the huge amount of other reads that Eury's given? It feels to me as if kirsche's making an attempt to debunk all of the most active posters thus far who are most likely town, based on minor flaws in their posts that don't discredit all that they've done to establish themselves as town. I thought I'd give BBM's slot a chance, but I felt scummy vibes from him before and I'm still getting them from kirsche. As for Sky - I understand your position on SB. I still don't feel that going after claimed ITP is a pressing issue, but I think we can agree to disagree there. Refa is a top lynch priority, and also I'm not willing to lynch Sky right now because of how much he's shown he's willing to commit. Your read on myself is still really shaky though ("I don't know the people here so I can't analyze their personalities" has nothing to do with the exact words of the content I posted. Explicit scumreads =/= personality traits). Going to reread Bluedoom and Terrador. The former because I haven't done so at all this whole game, and the latter because apparently kirsche doesn't have a problem with his posts, and I feel as though kirsche's associative reads are going to mean a lot.
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##Vote: Refa
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Wow, okay. I won't have time to fully read this for some hours, but Sky's walls definitely merit serious consideration, and I need to devote time later to sorting out this whole SB/Refa thing. ##Unvote for now. And Shinori needs to post more.
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No; I'm not claiming anything beyond what I precisely said, nothing more. I'm rather inclined to believe this. The rest of Junko's posts look newbie enough, so I don't think scum!Junko would try to pull WIFOM like that.
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I second this. This early on, designating our target openly will only prompt scum to protect said person. If any exist, I would advise townies with OC to try and agree upon their night action targets.
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Okay, so we're all agreed that Sky's a good lynch. We've spent a lot of posts nodding heads over this; is there anything else we should use this day to discuss? Personally, I think that BBM's slot is worth taking a look at. His vote on Wen is questionable; not only does the wording seem as though he's voting Wen based on his broken ISO, the other part of his vote ("I just don't get a good vibe from his posts") hardly merits a vote on him over Sky, who he spends far more time criticizing. Scumbuddy trying to distance himself while not endangering Sky, perhaps?
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Again, careful not to overvote. Remember what Wen said.
