(FE7) Drafting Tourney for FE7

[Raven]

Ch.16: Noble Lady of Caelin

Videos (2 parts):

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=0UI5jCpm0KA

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=58W4erOUFJs

TEAM--------LVL-HP-STR-SKL-SPD-LUC-DEF-RES
Hector----11.52-27--14---9--11---4--15---5
Marcus-----3.45-33--16--16--12---8--10---8
Rebecca----5.50-20---5---7---8---5---4---2
Oswin-----12.43-31--13--10---5---3--16---5
Guy--------8.03-28--10--16--18---9---8---2
Priscilla--3.60-16---6---6---8---7---3---6

6-turned with no deaths this time. Onto 17.

Edited March 2, 2010 by Razgriz

[Life]

Umm, technically you guys weren't supposed to restart chapters to see how fast you can do them. And by technically, I kinda mean that you're not supposed to restart unless a character dies (that you want alive). It's a one try run.

Edited March 2, 2010 by Cap'n Crunch

[Raven]

Umm, technically you guys weren't supposed to restart chapters to see how fast you can do them. And by technically, I kinda mean that you're not supposed to restart unless a character dies (that you want alive). It's a one try run.

...Ehh... This was unseen in the rules. I'm sure we've all restarted several times to try to get the best results we feel possible... What do we do now then?

[Balcerzak]

I gotta admit, I don't recall seeing anything specifying it was to be played Ironman style either, and the inability to go back and replay would give a huge advantage to whoever stalls the longest/plays the slowest, as all they need to do is see how fast the other people are doing and just aim for that, whereas the people completing chapters quicker have no guideline besides a gut feeling.

Unless there are serious disagreements, I have no problems continuing along as we've been doing so far.

[HongLei]

FE7 on your iPod? Enlighten me.

well I have an iPod touch and I jailbroke it and I downloaded an emulater and rock (or u could get it on cydia) but I just got grounded by my parents for not doing ap euro notes so I can't start for a couple days :/

Edited March 3, 2010 by rslfan

[Tino]

Personally I don't care whether we're allowed to restart or not. Not being able to will simply require some more planning beforehand, I guess.

If Life says we can't redo chapters, then so be it. That's perfectly fine with me.

[Raven]

I still haven't done Ch.17 yet. I'll do it when I get the chance.

[Balcerzak]

Oh, I uploaded the videos to my youtube, then I totally forgot to come back here and share the information. I also consolidated things into a playlist, so that should make things easier. When I update, I'll just link to the first unlinked new episode and you can get the rest yourself. Since nobody else is posting progress, I might as well, though it probably is disadvantageous for me to do so.

Chapter 17:

.

Total turns: 50 (49)

Ch17 End:
Hector  11.27  28 16 10 10  5 14  1 B61 W27
Matthew 11.53  26  8  9 19  8  7  4 B59 W20
Marcus   5.54  34 16 17 12 11 12  8 B93 W66
Bartre  10.30  35 13  8  8  5  7  4 B50 W29
Sain     7.89  24 12  6  9  5  9  0 B21 W 9
Oswin B18
Priscilla B3
Raven B1
Florina B1
Serra B6
Rebecca B2

Chapter 18: 3 turn completion

Total turns: 53 (52)

Hector  11.58  28 16 10 10  5 14  1 B69 W28
Matthew 12.02  27  8 10 20  8  7  4 B61 W21
Marcus   6.24  35 16 17 12 11 12  9 B100 W72
Bartre  11.36  36 14  9  9  5  7  4 B58 W35
Sain     8.82  25 12  7 10  5  9  0 B24 W12
Oswin B19
Priscilla B3
Raven B1
Guy B1
Florina B1
Serra B6
Rebecca B2
Merlinus B2

Chapter 19: 6 turn completion

Total turns: 59 (58)

Hector  12.10  29 17 11 10  5 14  1 B74 W31
Matthew 13.83  27  9 10 20  8  7  4 B72 W27
Marcus   6.97  35 16 17 12 11 12  9 B122 W81
Bartre  11.73  36 14  9  9  5  7  4 B65 W36
Sain     11.53  27 14  8 13  6  9  0 B35 W20
Dart      9.67 35 13  8  9  3  6  2  B12 W 5
Oswin B24
Priscilla B3
Raven B3
Guy B1
Florina B1
Serra B6
Rebecca B2
Merlinus B3

Chapter 20: 8 turn completion

Total turns: 67 (66)

Hector  13.00  30 17 12 11  5 14  1 B84 W35
Matthew 14.80  27 10 11 20  8  7  5 B76 W30
Marcus   8.17  36 18 17 13 11 13  9 B139 W89
Bartre  12.67  37 15  9  9  5  8  4 B72 W40
Sain     13.64  28 15 10 15  6 10  0 B50 W29
Dart     11.17 36 15  8 11  5  6  2  B21 W11
Oswin B24
Priscilla B3
Raven B4
Guy B1
Florina B1
Serra B6
Rebecca B2
Merlinus B3

Edited March 11, 2010 by Balcerzak

[Raven]

I have some catching up to do. Damn university.

[HongLei]

That's how I feel about my ap class :/

[Tino]

I have tons of catching up to do. Same here: damn school.

[BK-201]

Chapter 18: 3 turn completion

Total turns: 53 (52)

Chapter 19: 6 turn completion

Total turns: 56 (55)

Shouldn't this be 59 because 53+6?

[Balcerzak]

Good catch, looks like I fail arithmetic. I actually think the culprit was copy pasting the first block so I didn't have to re-set up code tags, and accidentally not updating that one from the 50(49) it used to say and added six to that. I'll go fix it now.

[HongLei]

K finally had time to play I restarted

11 7

12 10

13 11

14 14

15 7

16 13

17 11

I'm on 18 right now

total 73

[Balcerzak]

: 5 turn completion

Total turns: 72 (71)

Hector  13.51  30 17 12 11  5 14  1 B87 W38
Matthew 16.06  29 11 12 20  9  7  5 B80 W34
Marcus   8.87  36 18 17 13 11 13  9 B143 W92
Bartre  13.34  38 15  9 10  6  8  4 B77 W43
Sain     14.99  28 16 10 16  6 11  0 B63 W36
Dart     11.67 36 15  8 11  5  6  2  B25 W13
Oswin B24
Priscilla B3
Raven B4
Guy B1
Florina B1
Serra B6
Rebecca B2
Merlinus B3

Edited March 21, 2010 by Balcerzak

[Tino]

I'm sorry I haven't updated in a long time. However, a week ago I severely injured my ankle during a volleyball match, and I can't do anything with it. I cannot even get upstairs using my 'good' leg, because that still hurts insanely. So I have to stay downstairs all the time until I can put a little more pressure on my leg, and all we have downstairs is a laptop that everybody at home needs. It's slow as well, so even running something like VBA or NO$GBA will fail pretty hard.

So it's also still going to take quite a while until I can update.

[Meteor]

What were the hit percentages on Sain on turns 3 and 4? That seemed like some risky business.

Also, your Matthew has some ridiculous Str. I'm sure you know that, but seriously. Wow.

Edited March 21, 2010 by Meteor

[Raven]

I need to do more about this as well. University will be ending for Easter next Friday, but that's the release day of SoulSilver as well.

Shit.

[Balcerzak]

What were the hit percentages on Sain on turns 3 and 4? That seemed like some risky business.

Also, your Matthew has some ridiculous Str. I'm sure you know that, but seriously. Wow.

Enemy hit rates on Sain and his estimated chance of death.

Turn 3:

Pegasus: 51 (verified by turning on battle animations.)

Hand Axe Bandit: 51

Archer: 45 (would deal 1 damage if it didn't miss, putting Sain in possible poison death range.)

Monk: 64 (He will do 11 damage and kill Sain if Sain loses AS from a Javelin, which is why I let the Iron Lance stay at the top instead of counter-killing him.)

Also worth mentioning, if the Peg misses, it looks like everyone else goes after Matthew instead.

That means if I calculated everything right, Sain stands a 35.89% chance of death.

Turn 4:

Oleg: 37 (death if it connects.)

Archer: 27 (would deal 1 damage.)

Bandit: 24 (would deat 10 damage, leaving Sain in possible poison range.)

Assuming my math checks out, Sain stands a 33.83% chance of death here.

So, yeah. It was definitely risky, but it's not like it was suicidal.

Edited March 22, 2010 by Balcerzak

[Tino]

It's really too bad that luck is actually such a large factor in this game (unless, of course, you abuse the (P)RNG). Strategy is applicable, of course, but I feel that the large involvement of random chance reduces the chance to apply great strategy.

[Meteor]

Using your numbers, and maybe some different assumptions, I got a different answer (for turn 3)

- I required the peg to hit for any following calculations to matter

- I didn't use true hit for simplicity's sake

- I factored in poison chance

Probability has always made the most sense to me as a Venn diagram, so I made one. Any coloring means potential death, and shading indicates odds based on poison.

.51 * sum                                // outer area   2 + 
(
   .45 * .51 * (1 - .64) * (1/3)        // light pink   1 + 9 + (3 poison)
   (1 - .45) * (1 - .51) * .64 * (2/3)  // dark pink    11 + (2 or 3 poison)
   (1 - (1 - .45) * (1 - .51)) * .64    // red          (1 or 9) + 11 + (1 poison)
)

.51 * sum
(
   0.02754
   0.1149866666666667
   0.46752
)

.51 * 0.61 = .31 = 31%

Unless you used true hit, I don't know how your turn 4 calculation is lower than Oleg's accuracy.

Edited March 22, 2010 by Meteor

[Balcerzak]

I tend to make trees with probabilities, then sum up individual leaf results, which is probably equivalent to Venn diagrams. Also, I didn't save my first worksheet, and I'm getting some slightly different results this time, but the same general ballpark. And yeah, I was applying True Hit.

Using Simple Hit, I get a result that look to agree within rounding error.

Edit: Err, Turn 4 = Turn 3, and Turn 5 = Turn 4 in the screenshots. Should be obvious, but I must have had a brain fart or something.

Edited March 22, 2010 by Balcerzak

[Meteor]

Your way is also logical; I think true hit explains away the discrepancy. The turn 3 accuracies tended to be above 50, so true hit actually increased the odds of death, which is consistent with our two answers. Oleg's <50 hit, and therefore even lower true hit, also resolves my turn 4 question.

[BBM]

I'm guessing the second pool isn't starting until the first ends?

[Raven]

Here's my current predicament: I either drop out or start again, again.

I've had a brand new laptop since the old one was fried when I drunkenly tipped something on it while it was powered on. Shitty luck on my part. Also, the amount of patience I have with myself to try to finish what I started is running thin. I will also have next to zero time over the Easter Holidays to do anything about this if I did decide to start again.

Looks like I'm out. GGs.

I may rejoin in a future pool, since it's interesting and all.

Edited March 25, 2010 by Raven