The Resistance

[Parrhesia]

I also support JB's involvement in this mission. Proto's ideas sound good to me, so I'll back him up.

Again, my involvement hasn't really been staggering. Life has kind of been an obstruction.

[Darros]

Well I'll go if Pysch lets me. I haven't been on a mission yet, and I don't want to idle.

[Jaybee]

Well I'll go if Pysch lets me. I haven't been on a mission yet, and I don't want to idle.

Hold it. You only want to go on this mission because you haven't been on a mission yet, and you want Psych to pick you out of pity. I might be pessimistic, but I get the feeling that this is a spy trying to worm his way on to sabotage. Then again, you're Corple. What can you do?

[Darros]

Hold it. You only want to go on this mission because you haven't been on a mission yet, and you want Psych to pick you out of pity. I might be pessimistic, but I get the feeling that this is a spy trying to worm his way on to sabotage.

Shit, I'm sending the wrong message. -_-

Then again, you're Corple. What can you do?

Use the Valkyrie Staff :D

[Balcerzak]

Okay, continuing Weapons's math from last time, in the case with 4 agents, the chance of successfully selecting no empire spies drops to 5/18 or ~28%. The fact that we were not sabotaged last time, while not unexpected, means that winnowing out the traitor (if any) of the three sent is impossible yet at this stage. We're not quite back to square 1, because I think it is safe to conclude that there were not two traitors in the chosen bunch. (If there were two traitors, they would have been much more likely, IMO, to 'bus' one of them to 'clear' the other.)

However, I do partly question just sending in the same batch of informants as last time. In my opinion, for us to carry the game to victory, we need to be sabotaged this attempt while the pool of agents is still small enough we can start to weed out the moles. If the empire waits to sabotage until the six agent missions, our task of identification gets that much more difficult.

For the final mission, based purely on random selection, there is a 1/12 (or ~8%) chance of selecting a mole free team. The chance that we select teams with at least one mole in them three times in a row at that stage is (11/12)^3 or ~78% (not accounting for attempting to winnow the pool), which is an unacceptable margin. If we're not able to get a good idea about one of the moles by the final stage, even if we've performed flawlessly until that point, the odds are certainly against us.

Since we do already have at least some information on the first set of sent subjects, wouldn't there be some merit in choosing a completely fresh new set, in order to significantly expand the pool of possibles to let in a potential mole? Or am I barking down the wrong tree here?

[Psych]

We do not need Corple. Corple is useless. Unless we paired Sylvia x Levin, but no one does that...

I'm feeling Bal, Me, Core, JB. But I would like to hear more opinions.

EDIT: Listening to Bal, Math jurts my brain. But everyone knows I suck at scum hunting, cause in the end it makes me look guilty and you turn on me....

We either go set up 1, or Proto, Darros, Lighting, and Weapon.

Edited August 19, 2010 by Psych

[riariadne]

Needs moar Faval headhsotting stuffz with 100-kill Ichival

I don't think you should go. I don't trust you, psych.

[Tables]

Bump.

[Balcerzak]

Psych, you're the leader here, for now, you set down a firm proposal, after listening to all the input, and we'll vote on it. If we don't agree with your choice, it'll cycle to Hemlock, who will then take that into account when he builds his proposal. But unless you laid it down clear and loud, I'm not sure how much more discussion we're going to get out of this. I don't know if expecting continued unanimity is something we can count on, or even if it's necessarily a good thing. Maybe there's still more input to be had, from different timezones, or whatnot, so if you want to wait a little longer, I'm pretty sure you still have a fair bit of time. But you also have to remember to pay attention to the hard deadline too.

At the very least, let's not let this go quietly.

[Tables]

Speaking of deadlines... 59 1/2 hours left.

[Parrhesia]

Unless we paired Sylvia x Levin, but no one does that...

*cough*

Arright, listening to Bal (who is likely far less sleep-deprived than I am), I'm in agreement. What we need is information, most of all, and a new four will be better for that.

I don't know how Darros would act were he a spy. This makes him unpredictable, and potentially a dangerous foe. I'll just leave that open for debate.

[Kriemhild]

Hold it. You only want to go on this mission because you haven't been on a mission yet, and you want Psych to pick you out of pity. I might be pessimistic, but I get the feeling that this is a spy trying to worm his way on to sabotage. Then again, you're Corple. What can you do?

I have to agree with Joshaymin from here.

(If there were two traitors, they would have been much more likely, IMO, to 'bus' one of them to 'clear' the other.)

I just realized this right now. Yes, at least two out of those three must have been rebels.

However, I do partly question just sending in the same batch of informants as last time. In my opinion, for us to carry the game to victory, we need to be sabotaged this attempt while the pool of agents is still small enough we can start to weed out the moles. If the empire waits to sabotage until the six agent missions, our task of identification gets that much more difficult.

Wait, whaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

In case you haven't noticed, our objective in this game isn't to identify the Spies (there's no lynching or killing anyway). Our objective is to wipe out three Empire bases before they destroy ours. If they wait until six agent missions, they'll lose automatically since our first three missions will all be successful. If we are not sabotaged in this attempt, then we get another victory, which means we only need to complete one more mission before the game ends with us as the winners. Our task is not to identify.

For the final mission, based purely on random selection, there is a 1/12 (or ~8%) chance of selecting a mole free team. The chance that we select teams with at least one mole in them three times in a row at that stage is (11/12)^3 or ~78% (not accounting for attempting to winnow the pool), which is an unacceptable margin. If we're not able to get a good idea about one of the moles by the final stage, even if we've performed flawlessly until that point, the odds are certainly against us.

If we performed flawlessly until that point, there wouldn't be another stage because we'll be too busy deciding which Crusader becomes the ruler of which area in the vast Empire. We don't care about the moles as long as we get to blow up their bases.

Since we do already have at least some information on the first set of sent subjects, wouldn't there be some merit in choosing a completely fresh new set, in order to significantly expand the pool of possibles to let in a potential mole? Or am I barking down the wrong tree here?

We may already have a mole in the current setup. They might have already destroyed one of their own bases yesterday. And we barely learned anything from the first mission so we might as well pretend like it never happened.

We do not need Corple. Corple is useless. Unless we paired Sylvia x Levin, but no one does that...

NO HE ISN'T, HE IS AWESOMENESS Um, I did

I'm feeling Bal, Me, Core, JB. But I would like to hear more opinions.

This, too. Joshaymin wanted Weapons for some unknown reason so we could replace you with him but that's not that important imo. But I really think Joshaymin, zak, and Core should be in.

We either go set up 1, or Proto, Darros, Lighting, and Weapon.

Wait, where did this come from?

*cough*

Arright, listening to Bal (who is likely far less sleep-deprived than I am), I'm in agreement. What we need is information, most of all, and a new four will be better for that.

What we need is victory. The Empire would now want to sabotage any plans that they could get involved with. It's from this moment that we'll be able to gather info so the events of yesterday can be completely ignored. So it doesn't matter if the batch is fresh or not. What matters more is that in the event of a sabotage, I think Core and zak should be the ones who get involved in the mission. Core because he's our next leader, zak because he's zak. And Joshaymin, because I really think he's a rebel. He talks a lot and wouldn't say suspicious stuff for no reason (like what Darros just did) so I think we'll be able to expose him if he really is a Spy.

[Psych]

Alright.

Seeing as how I'd like to bring at least one if not two people from the previous mission, this is what I'd going with.

##Plan: Bring Me, Hemlock, Proto, Weapons.

[riariadne]

Disapprove.

I just have a bad feeling about Weapons. Call me nitpicky or whatever, but I think Weapons is up to something. Maybe JB as well.

Edited August 19, 2010 by Lightning

[Darros]

##Vote: Approve

We still have 3 bases, and if this mission is sabotaged it would actually help us to not allow them in on future missions.

Edited August 19, 2010 by Darros

[riariadne]

... No it wouldn't. We don't want to lose bases because we need all the help we can get last mission. So there's a problem in your mission, because you... want us to have a base sabotaged? Wut?

Edited August 19, 2010 by Lightning

[Psych]

Yeah....I would think maybe changing it to the Me, JB, Core, and Proto, but I'm not sure once I make plans if I can do that.

Darros is looking scummy before even going on the mission. I told you bringing Corple was a bad idea! We need Sharlow and that Berserk staff...>_>

[Tables]

Voting phase has begun, with plans going to Psychout50, Hemlock, Proto and Weapons.

Yes: 1 (Darros)

No 1 (Lightning)

There's a chance this will finish by tomorrow morning, in which case, you get flavour from me, otherwise Life will be taking over. Note that all he/we mods have to really do is announce sabotage results, you guys can pretty much effectively run the planning phase stuff without us telling you exactly what's going on :P. So (you've been doing it already, but) don't feel obliged for us to update and tell you what stage of the game we're in.

I'm pointing this out because Life tends to be pretty busy, and unlike me can't check the forum multiple times per day to update or whatever.

Edit: Plans can't be changed once the distribution has been started. Firstly to stop a theoretical stalling of the game where someone repeatedly withdraws plans as they look like they're being voted down and secondly to improve the chance of more people getting to be leader. If you want, I WILL let the leader decide to veto their own distribution, which basically counts as an instant no vote and therefore move on to the next leader.

Edited August 20, 2010 by I Eat Tables

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

I thought I posted something earlier. Oh well.

Right now, I don't think we should rush into sending plans out and focus more on gathering information; we can delay for however long we want with constant vetoes. I can barely get any read on anyone here, so we can do what we normally do and start accusing people.

First question, to those who nominated me, why me?

[Psych]

For me, some generic "Weapons is going to end up screwing us over" train of thought, so I'd like evidence, and for the group to start questioning you.

Seriously, you're like always mafia. >_>

[Darros]

... No it wouldn't. We don't want to lose bases because we need all the help we can get last mission. So there's a problem in your mission, because you... want us to have a base sabotaged? Wut?

Thats not what I'm saying. I said that IF it gets sabotaged it COULD be good. At least I implied that, I thought.

Im agreeing with Balzerack (Sorry if I spelled that wrong) here. 8% chance of a scum-free final base is extremely low, and I think Pysch or Weapons is scum. So why not vote yes to prove it and then hold back that entire group? Besides, if I'm wrong they're in the clear.

Edited August 20, 2010 by Darros

[Kriemhild]

Yeah....I would think maybe changing it to the Me, JB, Core, and Proto, but I'm not sure once I make plans if I can do that.

Yeah, that looks better. But I don't think he'll let you change it.

Thats not what I'm saying. I said that IF it gets sabotaged it COULD be good. At least I implied that, I thought.

Im agreeing with Balzerack (Sorry if I spelled that wrong) here. 8% chance of a scum-free final base is extremely low, and I think Pysch or Weapons is scum. So why not vote yes to prove it and then hold back that entire group? Besides, if I'm wrong they're in the clear.

But there is no way it could be better if the mission is sabotaged. Seriously. If this mission goes well, then we only need to destroy one more base while the empire needs to foil three plans. So we get three chances. If we manage to get a team with no moles even once, then they lose. And each time we fail, we'll have clues on identifying the spies, making it easier to pick the next team. If you think Psych or Weapons is scum, then it would be a whole lot better not to bring them. Put some other guy in. If the mission gets sabotaged, that guy will look suspicious, which is essentially the same thing you're hoping for with Psych/Weapons. But I would much prefer the other possibility of the plan going well, because then we'll be in a very good position and the Spies will have a very hard time beating us.

[Kriemhild]

Wait a minute. I just smelled something really fishy here...

Alright.

Seeing as how I'd like to bring at least one if not two people from the previous mission, this is what I'd going with.

##Plan: Bring Me, Hemlock, Proto, Weapons.

The only person from your plan that was there before was yourself. Why did you select yourself to go to this mission? Why not Joshaymin or zak? My preferred set up involved both Joshaymin AND zak but not you. zak didn't want you involved either, because he clearly said...

Since we do already have at least some information on the first set of sent subjects, wouldn't there be some merit in choosing a completely fresh new set, in order to significantly expand the pool of possibles to let in a potential mole? Or am I barking down the wrong tree here?

...that he wanted a completely fresh new set. I did not agree with his logic, but only because I wanted Joshaymin and/or zak involved here. Neither me nor zak wanted you, Psychout, involved.

I'm feeling Bal, Me, Core, JB. But I would like to hear more opinions.

Again, the same question, why are you in it? It's completely different from the setup you officially decided with later, except for you. It's as if you just put yourself, and then randomly selected three others, because they keep changing.

I don't think you should go. I don't trust you, psych.

And besides, Reinfleche didn't even want you to go. No one asked you to go, one guy said he said he didn't want you to go. But you still decided to bring yourself into it. Without any explanation.

Yeah....I would think maybe changing it to the Me, JB, Core, and Proto, but I'm not sure once I make plans if I can do that.

Same question, why are you in it? This is the third setup you proposed and once again you're in it. Why do you want to be in this mission so badly? You didn't follow the setup the other players recommended, you ignored zak's suggestion to use a new fresh batch, and you just went ahead and included yourself. Without telling us why. And you even made it your final decision (y'know, the one the mods care about) without listening to any opinions on this specific setup. To me, it really seems as if you're a Spy that wants to sabotage this mission.

If it was possible to change my vote later, then I would Vote against the plan right now and keep it like that until you explain to me why you're so desperate to be in this mission.

[Parrhesia]

I wrote a long, flagrant post before. Not seeing it here, I am left to curse my dodgy intertoobs and say, somewhat more laconically, this;

Psych, I don't trust you. ##Vote; NO

[Darros]

But there is no way it could be better if the mission is sabotaged. Seriously. If this mission goes well, then we only need to destroy one more base while the empire needs to foil three plans. So we get three chances. If we manage to get a team with no moles even once, then they lose. And each time we fail, we'll have clues on identifying the spies, making it easier to pick the next team. If you think Psych or Weapons is scum, then it would be a whole lot better not to bring them. Put some other guy in. If the mission gets sabotaged, that guy will look suspicious, which is essentially the same thing you're hoping for with Psych/Weapons. But I would much prefer the other possibility of the plan going well, because then we'll be in a very good position and the Spies will have a very hard time beating us.

But whats easier, finding a mole out of four people or six? I say that if the plan works, we get to take six people. That mission gets sabotaged, we take the other half of our party, if that mission get sabotaged, we're f'cked. The chances aren't great.