Kaoz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Thoughts, guys? My guess is there's no vig at all, which leads us to 10/3/1 or something, probably, but I'm not very sure on this hunch, so yeah. Assuming that all killing sources in the game shot tonight, the probability for more than one being blocked seems rather low (for example, I believe the Roleblocker and BPV blocking one kill each with random targeting would be around 1%)... even if you sum up a bunch of scenarios with, say two killing sources, I don't think you'd get more than a 10% chance or so of no kills happening. Following that, I will assume one killing source for the below. As we know that we had a Mayor, 10/3/1 (any special reasons why you think there's a 3rd party?) would mean we effectively have 3 mislynches I believe... it's definitly a possibility, but I think we shouldn't discount something like 9/4/1 either, otherwise it might screw us over at a later point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Assuming that all killing sources in the game shot tonight, the probability for more than one being blocked seems rather low (for example, I believe the Roleblocker and BPV blocking one kill each with random targeting would be around 1%)... even if you sum up a bunch of scenarios with, say two killing sources, I don't think you'd get more than a 10% chance or so of no kills happening. Thinking about it some more, the 10% might not be correct... I ran some calculations, but for now only for the scenario that we have 1 Doctor and neither a BPV nor a Roleblocker... I might do more at some point, but for now... -Assuming Doctor --Assuming 1 Killing Source (Mafia) ---P(BLOCKED) = (TOWN-1) / (TOWN * (PROTECTED-1)) ----9 Town+Neutral: P ~= 7% ----10 Town+Neutral: P ~= 8% ----11 Town+Neutral: P ~=9% --Assuming 2 Killing Sources (Mafia + Vig/SK) ---P(ALL_BLOCKED) = (TOWN-1) / (NOT_MAFIA * (PROTECTED-1)) * ((PLAYERS-2) / (NOT_K2 * (PROTECTED-1))) ----9 Town, 4 Mafia, 1 SK: P ~= 0.5% ----10 Town, 3 Mafia, 1SK: P ~= 0.6% ----10 Town, 4 Mafia: P ~= 0.6% ----11 Town: P ~= 0.6% --Assuming 2 Killing Sources (Mafia + Mafia) ---P(ALL_BLOCKED) = (PLAYERS-M1-1) / (NOT_M1 * (PROTECTED-1)) * ((PLAYERS-M2-1) / (NOT_M2 * (PROTECTED-1))) ----8 Town, 3 M1, 3 M2: P ~= 0.6% ----10 Town, 2 M1, 2 M2: P ~= 0.6% I hope they are somewhat correct at least although not terribly interesting outside of it being highly unlikely that we have more than one killing source and only a Doctor @_@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 A new day begins, and everyone gathers. As you're about to do a head count, one of you spots an envelope, and opens it. It's... a Role PM! Crap, I'm... Dear Town, This is a cake. You all survived the night, so I've seen fit to give you a small gift of confectionery. Enjoy. Don't forget to share. Sincerely, Your Host ...You're not sure what to think. It is now Day 2. Phase end: January 6th, 12pm GMT ...Alive? What in hell? Also: The Cake is a Lie 13. 13th - I don't like the massive attitude shift. . .this doesn't feel like 13th at all. . .and FFS, I hope I'm wrong about this, and he really did get a lot better in a short amount of time What is wrong with getting very much better so quickly. I merely had to figure out where I was going wrong, and correct it. I would have suggested pulling up numbers now that Night 1 is over, but there weren't any kills. This kind of leads me to a few possible solutions. 1 - There is no vig. Rather likely, I guess, given how the vig DIDN'T SHOOT 13TH or the Vig, if he exists, could be someone who's been really busy and had no time to send in actions. Point against this is phase ended on time, and I suspect phase would have ended early if all night actions were in. Which then leads to... A - Mafia shot a bulletproof. B - Mafia's target got protected by the doctor, in which case, nice job. C - MAFIA GOT ROLEBLOCKED, in which case, nice job. The second possibility is that there is a vig, in which case... A - Vig is fucking retarded/busy. Not mutually exclusive. B - Vig thinks 13th is town. People like Core and Bizz? IIRC, have said that they think 13th is town after his persuader/fool/persuader fiasco, which I don't really see but ok. C - VIG/MAFIA GOT DOC'D/ROLEBLOCKED, SWAP OPTIONS AROUND Thoughts, guys? My guess is there's no vig at all, which leads us to 10/3/1 or something, probably, but I'm not very sure on this hunch, so yeah. I have actually been doubting the existence of the Vig in the first place. This just adds more evidence to that. Of course, the option exists Iris is Vig. Iris is busy atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 what the math Anyway, it's more that I've become... accustomed? to SF games having at least one neutral, having the role of a SK or Survivor or something along those lines. 10/4 could be possible, I suppose, though I just like 10/3/1 fsr. Feels... right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 There is no vig. Rather likely, I guess, given how the vig DIDN'T SHOOT 13TH or the Vig, if he exists, could be someone who's been really busy and had no time to send in actions. Point against this is phase ended on time, and I suspect phase would have ended early if all night actions were in. Of course, the option exists Iris is Vig. Iris is busy atm. All actions are in. Phase end. The phase did end early... in other words, if there is a Vig, they got either blocked or didn't feel like shooting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well, that's a relief. I was worried someone was going to die...but I guess someone did a good job, or someone did a bad job. What are the chances of both a doctor and a roleblocker existing? With what happened last night, I'm finding it somewhat likely, to be honest. More stuff later as I think a bit more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 oh shit I missed that err does that change anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Am I the only one who find painting big red X on possible vig canditates,,, scummy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I misread as well. And Sho. I was only suggesting based on JB's logic as a possibility. But I guess yes, it can seem scummy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Hmm...right, I said Sho was the prime candidate for a lynch in one of the past phases (forgot which), and I'm sticking to it. The reasons stated before, and another confidential reason, are why I feel like lynching Sho is going to give us a good lead today. If anyone has a better lynch target, though, feel free to suggest. For now, a ##Erase: Sho will be in place (creativity for you, Naggy-kun). Kay also doesn't look good to me, since she didn't seem to acknowledge my response to her and I feel that's a bit fishy, but it's a minor thing for the time being. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 *an, whoops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 How about 13th and his much wider scale facepalmnes and freaking out in general from the slightest pressure? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 How about 13th and his much wider scale facepalmnes and freaking out in general from the slightest pressure? - 13th strikes me as a flustered and amateurish town (no offence to you here) more than scum. Maybe this is just me, but I'm going to repeat something I've said before in this thread: in FE4 mafia (even though it allegedly sucked), he was somewhat acting the same (except less worse; no claiming all over the place, but instead, he suspected the whole board of being mafia), until Kaoz took over. I could tell from Kaoz's play style that 13th had a town role, he was just inept at being a townie. So yeah, I'm not going to judge him as scum for the time being. Yes? Also, I didn't notice this: Some explanations by Kay, and a vote for Sho right before phase end. Definitely some food for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 And a thanks to eclipse for her summaries. Very helpful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rapier Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well, that's great, but it doesn't give us a lot of new info. If there's any sort of Town Roleblocker, maybe they'll have something to say, at least. We may as well ask him who's Mafia as soon as we find the mind reader who found the Vig/the one Mafia sent to kill. Well, that's a relief. I was worried someone was going to die...but I guess someone did a good job, or someone did a bad job. What are the chances of both a doctor and a roleblocker existing? With what happened last night, I'm finding it somewhat likely, to be honest. More stuff later as I think a bit more. Do you really think that such a case scenario could exist?: - Vig's roleblocked - Doctor saves someone, or a Bulletproof survives I don't think such an absurd thing could happen, to be honest. Now I really hope we have a Doctor instead of a Bulletproof, and that a Cop of some sort has investigated 13th, because he's making me confused as fuck because of some stuff I'm thinking now. Only time will tell us about what happened this Day. Give me some time to gather my thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 How about 13th and his much wider scale facepalmnes and freaking out in general from the slightest pressure? How about you and your ridiculous mounting of a defense for your bullshit Nightmare lynch, and 'freaking out in general' at everything regarding that lynch? You spent essentially one phase doing nothing but discussing your fail logic, and that's really really really goddamn defensive. I wonder why... Holding off on voting first because IDK yet. Also Rapier no doctor for the town would probably mean Nags failed at balancing or gave town some other really good roles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Do you really think that such a case scenario could exist?: - Vig's roleblocked - Doctor saves someone, or a Bulletproof survives I don't think such an absurd thing could happen, to be honest. Why is that so absurd? Remember, we shouldn't leave out any possibility here, especially when we have so little info to go on. Restrictive ways of thinking sweepingly kill towns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Even if there's only one killing source, if I haven't made any mistakes with my calculations, the probability of just the doctor preventing the kill is only 10% at best. A BPV or Roleblocker could increase this by a bit at least. Nightmare, could you maybe rank your proposed lynch or something? Let's say a 1-10 scale with 1 being horrible and 10 being optimal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 How about you and your ridiculous mounting of a defense for your bullshit Nightmare lynch, and 'freaking out in general' at everything regarding that lynch? You spent essentially one phase doing nothing but discussing your fail logic, and that's really really really goddamn defensive. I wonder why... Holding off on voting first because IDK yet. Also Rapier no doctor for the town would probably mean Nags failed at balancing or gave town some other really good roles. Difference is, I didn't start pulling desperate claims out of my ass. Also i bet 13th's great logical warps clipsey is so keen to point out are based on this: 13th's scumbuddy: say this and this and this 13th: Sir yes sir! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Nightmare, could you maybe rank your proposed lynch or something? Let's say a 1-10 scale with 1 being horrible and 10 being optimal? Sure thing. Sho: Gets a 10, but I'm still not 100% certain if he's scum. However, judging from previous observations, he's the scummiest at the moment, and I don't see any better option Kay: 5, because she's a bit fishy (as stated before). Might just be how she is and I'm unaware. Rein, JB, Core, Rapier, 13th, Iris: 3, since I have mixed feelings towards them, but mostly feel like town. Bizz, Kaoz, Strawman, eclipse: 1, seem fairly town. Nightmare: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Rein, JB, Core, Rapier, 13th, Iris: 3, since I have mixed feelings towards them, but mostly feel like town. To clarify, I mean to say that I'm not really getting any specific reads on these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rapier Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Why is that so absurd? Remember, we shouldn't leave out any possibility here, especially when we have so little info to go on. Restrictive ways of thinking sweepingly kill towns. But that would require us to be really lucky, and such ammount of luck hardly ever comes to effect. Difference is, I didn't start pulling desperate claims out of my ass. Also i bet 13th's great logical warps clipsey is so keen to point out are based on this: 13th's scumbuddy: say this and this and this 13th: Sir yes sir! Really Sho, I'm tired of your bad reasons. If you take a look at Clipsey's summary (although you won't need it, if you paid attention to the game rather than pay attention to me and my claim), 13th's logic changed accordingly to the game. He didn't just change his opinion magically: As we discussed further and further, he came to agree with me, and then agree with others ideas that were presented during the Day/Night. He's more like a newbie without a concrete opinion about the facts rather than someone who's taking orders. Also, I'm tired of your "trying to make us accept shit and put it through out throat" behavior. You make no sense at all, and never made infact. ##Vote: Sho I was thinking about lynching 13th too, but then something came into my mind, something that makes me believe that he might not be a Mafia, something that justifies his Fool claim. But I can't say it now, as it'll reveal my strategy and if I'm right it'll be bad for the Town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 But that would require us to be really lucky, and such ammount of luck hardly ever comes to effect. I'm just saying, we shouldn't dismiss it entirely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Really Sho, I'm tired of your bad reasons. If you take a look at Clipsey's summary (although you won't need it, if you paid attention to the game rather than pay attention to me and my claim), 13th's logic changed accordingly to the game. He didn't just change his opinion magically: As we discussed further and further, he came to agree with me, and then agree with others ideas that were presented during the Day/Night. He's more like a newbie without a concrete opinion about the facts rather than someone who's taking orders. Also, I'm tired of your "trying to make us accept shit and put it through out throat" behavior. You make no sense at all, and never made infact. ##Vote: Sho I was thinking about lynching 13th too, but then something came into my mind, something that makes me believe that he might not be a Mafia, something that justifies his Fool claim. But I can't say it now, as it'll reveal my strategy and if I'm right it'll be bad for the Town. A) Even the biggest fool would realize not to hide the tracks of taking over 13th's playing Rapier. Have fun being fooled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 fucking missclicks, that post is not writen to the end. Do not reply to it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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