Golden Sun Mafia

[Kaoz]

Firstly, it's "he", but I'll let that slide.

My apologies.

Also, which restrictions about my role? Okay, let's throw this down (also, I hate repeating myself):

- I can revive people, and can choose whether to keep them alive or not.

- It's a role ability

- I can only keep one person alive at any one time

- Another fact I'm omitting for safety purposes (see below the quote below as for why)

Yes, these restrictions, you already said all of that, no reason to repeat yourself. Who confirms me that you really have those?

Think about it: I wouldn't have the capacity to revive multiple people, it'd just mean I'd have stupid amounts of power for town, making the game imba as hell. I doubt.

Except that I never claimed that you had those abilities. Let's look at a scenario in the case you are mafia:

-You revive Marth

-We have to lynch Marth next cycle, if we don't he can use his role to prevent the lynch

-We have to lynch you afterwards

-We are at the beginning of C5 with two killed mafia, X remaining ones and probably 2 Town less, and if this cycle is any indication, we got nothing done in the meantime

If you are town we get Prims back which is nice and all, but from what I can tell, it'd be a smaller benefit to have him back than it would be detrimental to the Town if Marth got revived and we had to lynch him again. Furthermore, as JB mentioned, you also more or less bind the Doctor (if one exists), which leaves everyone else open for shots, and in the worst case scenario, the Mafia has a Watcher and gets to know who the Doctor is because of that.

Then we have the possibilities of Mafia Roleblockers, or even worse, Redirects.

Also, I admitted that my claim was probably not the best idea in the world.

That doesn't change anything. I don't see why I should give you a free pass for doing something like this.

Might I remind you that claiming Reviver as Mafia is quite possibly one of the stupidest ideas ever. Hell, claiming Reviver as Town isn't the best either. Claiming Mafia Reviver would just set me up very easily for a lynch. Yeah, that's an incredibly smart idea as mafia /sarcasm

Yeah... because clearly as Mafia, I would claim Mafia [Role], not just the role itself.

Claiming as Reviver is suboptimal, regardless of your allignment. The thing that bothers me is that apparently a lot of people here are assuming that Reviver = Town when that is not the case at all and even a single revive could easily change the flow of the game.

Actually, your entire post towards me rubs me completely the wrong way. You're fishing for more information about my role. No one else has asked anything about what else my role is capable of. Let me fish out some quotes for you:

This irks me sooooooooooo much. This is fishing for information for beyond what town would actually care about. And if scum knew exactly what my omission was, they'd have a perfect reason to kill me off immediately. Town wouldn't mind if they didn't know.

I'm not fishing for info. I haven't asked you what your role was capable of, I went by what you already said.

##Vote: Kaoz

You've given me a very good reason to vote you right now. That makes it easier to decide.

Tip to the maybe non-existent Doctor: You might want to target me this cycle

You've given me a very good reason to keep my vote where it is for the time being.

[eclipse]

Damn walls of text.

Claiming as Reviver is suboptimal, regardless of your allignment. The thing that bothers me is that apparently a lot of people here are assuming that Reviver = Town when that is not the case at all and even a single revive could easily change the flow of the game.

I don't know which side Manix is on ATM. Why are you assuming mafia. . .or do you know something I don't?

[Kaoz]

I don't know which side Manix is on ATM. Why are you assuming mafia. . .or do you know something I don't?

I apparently didn't make this clear. I'm not assuming he's Mafia, what I'm saying is that if he is, it'd be really bad for us, say a -10, and that if he is Town, it'd only be like a +5, and since it could be either, it'd be more logical to lynch him than not to.

[Grace]

One moment:

I'm not fishing for info. I haven't asked you what your role was capable of, I went by what you already said.

so what about this:

I disagree. Who says that Manix was telling the truth about the restrictions? Say she revives Marth, we have to kill both of them again which puts us at the end of C4 at the very least (chances that we mislynch this cycle in that case aren't exactly low), so even though we would have confirmed mafia, we would still give them lots of time to do whatever they want, possibly protecting more devastating roles with this.

Which kind of implies that you may want to know whether what I'm saying is true, and hence know what my role exactly does.

But anyway, so be it. We will stand opposite each other on this issue.

Although, a question: What happens if we make it to next phase and I flip town by reviving Prims? Would you still try to be rid of me?

[eclipse]

While I'm not happy with Kay, Rapier, or Snike, at least they make an effort to talk.

##Vote: Iris

This is a reminder to sub out sooner than later, especially if life's about to get hectic. Being busy all the time isn't helping the town in the least. I know that I won't be sick all the time. . .

[Kaoz]

Which kind of implies that you may want to know whether what I'm saying is true, and hence know what my role exactly does.

That's what you get for trying to read something in my posts that's not in there. I said what I said, nothing more, it's hardly my fault if you misinterpret my statements.

Although, a question: What happens if we make it to next phase and I flip town by reviving Prims? Would you still try to be rid of me?

Others likely would require my attention more than you then. If you actually revive Prims, the chance that you're Mafia decreases by quite a bit, but I wouldn't want to put it at 0%, even then.

[Kriemhild]

Votals

1. Joshaymin/Aurora (0) - Paperblade
   
2. Clipsey!/eclipse (1) - Joshaymin, Domu
   
3. Kay/Centurion (0) - Ether
   
4. BigBangMeteor
   
5. Prims (died C1)
   
6. Domu/Rapier (2) - Clipsey!, Strawman, Snike
   
7. Shinori
   
8. Strawman/StrawSloththeSawSlothStraw
   
9. Snike (subbing in for Paperblade) (2) - Clipsey!, Kay, BigBangMeteor, Manix, Clipsey!, Bizz, Clipsey!
   
10. Iris~ (1) - Clipsey!
    
11. Kaoz (subbing in for Ether) (1) - Joshaymin, Joshaymin, Manix, Manix
    
12. Manix (1) - Bizz, Domu, Shinori, Clipsey!, Joshaymin, Kaoz
    
13. Blues/Marth (lynched C1)
    
14. Spike/Stolypin Necktie (missing)
    
15. Bizz/Levantamos
    
16. Haze (0) - Kaoz
    

[Strawman]

Kaoz, I think lynching Manix doesn't seem very logical. If we lynch him and he is telling the truth we lose out on townie manix AND townie prims. That is not good. Also, I wish I could say more but I'm about to be late. Volunteering with a church at 8 in the morning :/ lol.

[Kaoz]

Kaoz, I think lynching Manix doesn't seem very logical. If we lynch him and he is telling the truth we lose out on townie manix AND townie prims. That is not good. Also, I wish I could say more but I'm about to be late. Volunteering with a church at 8 in the morning :/ lol.

That is true. On the other hand, if we don't lynch him and he isn't telling the truth, it throws us back quite a bit which is also not good. It's a matter of risk/reward and I currently feel that the risk is greater.

Adding to that, it's only C2 and you guys produced barely any leads other than lynching inactives.

If someone makes a good argument for lynching someone else, I will gladly reconsider the risk/reward ratio, but that's how it seems to me at the moment.

[Kaoz]

Alright so I figured since it seems that I didn't express myself very clearly, I'd draw up my (possibly not perfect) thought process regarding this issue. Note that I do not know anything about the numbers, and of course the results vary depending on that assumption, but we gotta start somewhere.

Assuming 5 Mafia (= 2 Mislynches, disregarding vote modifiers)

Current: 10-4

Case Mafia

After C2: 8-5 (revive, probability for a mislynch increases)

After C3: 7-4

After C3: 6-3

If the Kidnapper is Mafia -> No mislynches left

Case Town

After C2: 10-3 or 9-4 (assuming successful revival)

The situation is a lot better but given that the game is NOC, nowhere near a certain win. Furthermore there is the aforementioned risk of a Mafia Roleblocker or something similiar.

Case Town

After C2: 9-3 or 8-4 (assuming failed revival)

In other words, our situation only improves if Manix is Town and the revival is successful, otherwise it gets worse or stays around the same (the latter only if we lynch Mafia).

---

There's one more thing I'd like to know. Manix, why did you claim? We covered that it probably wasn't a good decision, but surely you must have had some sort of reason regardless. I apologize if you answered this before, I probably missed it in that case.

[Grace]

There's one more thing I'd like to know. Manix, why did you claim? We covered that it probably wasn't a good decision, but surely you must have had some sort of reason regardless. I apologize if you answered this before, I probably missed it in that case.

I don't think I ever did explain, so you wouldn't have missed it. Mostly, I did it because I wanted to get some communication going between the town, and give the town some goals by who doesn't like what I claimed, etc. Also, to let the town know what my plan was about Prims, before I revived him. Because getting past a fakeclaim made the following day is also important. (Fakeclaims are hard to break in just one phase, and I can't afford that, tbh.)

Also because my head wasn't really in the right place that day. But hey, what's done is done...

[Jaybee]

JB - DO YOUR HOMEWORK! (seems busy with RL)

I thought I was doing enough WRT posting for this phase =/

Regarding Kaoz/Manix, IMO it's still much better to leave Manix alone for this phase. Yes, there is the risk that he's mafia, but honestly, if he were mafia he'd probably have run his plan by his teammates already. And I honestly don't think such a plan would have made it through.

[Kaoz]

Well, who do you want to lynch then? You're not voting for anyone at the moment I believe.

[Jaybee]

The problem here for me is that everyone either looks townish (Bizz, Manix), is/was inactive as hell (Iris, the 2 subs) or I have practically zero reads on/feel indifferent towards (Strawman, Eclipse). There's no one who sticks out even slightly as scummy... Except maybe this.

##Vote Rapier

Still think you were defending yourself way too vigorously WRT Marth's vote on you. Gut feeling (I KNOW I SAID THIS WAS TERRIBLE), bleeeeeeegh

[BBM]

Okay, my thoughts.

JB: I'm still a bit mistrustful about how he and Kay pushed so hard on that one very slightly incorrect sentence I made, but I'm neutral other than that.

Eclipse: Uh... even before he got sick, he didn't actually have many content-related posts. He posted frequently, but a lot of them were just about voting for inactives. That's a bit suspicious.

Kay: See JB.

Rapier: I... really don't know. His posts are kind of weird and overly aggressive. Getting a weird vibe from him.

Shinori: I pushed kinda hard on him C1, but I think he's town. I know Mafia Inventors exist, but if he was scum, wouldn't he have given the gift to someone in the mafia? I don't think Bizz is mafia.

Strawman: I don't have any reads on him. >_>

Snike/Paperblade: Paperblade's last minute post on C1, as I've said several times, just irks me. There was no reason to post that at that point in the cycle. Marth's lynch was basically an inevitability at that point. And he didn't change his vote to Marth, or say why he was keeping his vote on Shinori. He was just distancing himself from Marth, IMO. My vote is staying here, at least for the moment.

Iris: Inactive. However, she has, I think, made a post once or twice about posting impressions soon, but never has. If this is because of being busy, please ask for a sub.

Kaoz/Ether: Ether was inactive and Kaoz has just come in, so no read yet.

Manix: I also find him suspicious. I still think it's a possibility he claimed to divert attention away from him, because people were talking about lynching him C2 in C1. However, I think Paperblade/Snike are more likely to be scum. Yes, if he flips Mafia, we're behind a cycle, but it's not that great a loss if we lynch correctly today. Kaoz, your calculations didn't show the possibility of a correct lynch and Mafia Manix, as far as I can see. However, keep in mind guys, Prims said that if he gets revived, he'll probably need a sub. So we won't necessarily be getting Prims' activity if Manix is town.

Bizz: Town. I may be reading too much into the flavour again (damnit, I should have picked a mafia where I didn't know the game at all), but it makes sense for Agatio to have a partner.

[Kaoz]

Shinori: I pushed kinda hard on him C1, but I think he's town. I know Mafia Inventors exist, but if he was scum, wouldn't he have given the gift to someone in the mafia? I don't think Bizz is mafia.

Well, there are several possibilities.

1. He wants to appear town by giving something to someone who is likely to report it in the thread. Bizz would be one of the better targets for this from what I've seen. Also we don't know how strong the gift is (I might be misremembering, but didn't Bizz say it was useless because of what she did?), so if it doesn't really give the town an advantage, it's not a big deal.

2. He doesn't know what the gifts do and was afraid they had a negative effect.

Kaoz, your calculations didn't show the possibility of a correct lynch and Mafia Manix, as far as I can see. However, keep in mind guys, Prims said that if he gets revived, he'll probably need a sub. So we won't necessarily be getting Prims' activity if Manix is town.

In that case, making the same assumptions as above, we'd be at 9-4 I believe. The reason why I didn't list it was because the probability of getting one of the remaining ones is only around 27%, or 18% if Spike is Mafia.

I should have listed the possibility though, my apologies.

[Percivalé]

For now, please prove your role to me this cycle, I'm pretty sure you can assuming I'm right about it.

>fishing

I wish I could tell you how I can prove it, but that would give away the surprise!

[Percivalé]

Sorry that I've been scarce, by the way; I've been sleeping. A friend's coming over today and then I'll be here

Also thanks, Eclipse <3

[Percivalé]

if it doesn't really give the town an advantage, it's not a big deal.

Oh, it gave town an advantage,

[Percivalé]

Oh, and Kaoz:

I picked out two instances in which you silently pick fun at my playstyle. Please do not do this anymore, because I will keep seeing them, they will pile up, and I will eventually get offended. My style isn't inferior to anyone else's, and yes I get overzealous, and you would know if you fucking read my posts that I'm improving, anyhow. Thank you.

[Kaoz]

Oh, and Kaoz:

I picked out two instances in which you silently pick fun at my playstyle. Please do not do this anymore, because I will keep seeing them, they will pile up, and I will eventually get offended. My style isn't inferior to anyone else's, and yes I get overzealous, and you would know if you fucking read my posts that I'm improving, anyhow. Thank you.

Uh... I wasn't trying to pick fun at you or your playstyle. I disagree with it personally and don't want to use a similiar style myself, but you're winning often enough, so you must be doing something right. I apologize for those two instances.

One thing though... kindly stop saying that people don't read your posts because I'm sure in about 99% of the cases, we do.

[eclipse]

In that case, making the same assumptions as above, we'd be at 9-4 I believe. The reason why I didn't list it was because the probability of getting one of the remaining ones is only around 27%, or 18% if Spike is Mafia.

Wait. WAIT.

##Unvote

##Vote: Kaoz

Assuming Proto didn't screw with the ratio that much, I'd guess there's five mafia members. Why are you assuming less than that?

[eclipse]

Alright so I figured since it seems that I didn't express myself very clearly, I'd draw up my (possibly not perfect) thought process regarding this issue. Note that I do not know anything about the numbers, and of course the results vary depending on that assumption, but we gotta start somewhere.

Assuming 5 Mafia (= 2 Mislynches, disregarding vote modifiers)

Current: 10-4

Case Mafia

After C2: 8-5 (revive, probability for a mislynch increases)

After C3: 7-4

After C3: 6-3

If the Kidnapper is Mafia -> No mislynches left

Case Town

After C2: 10-3 or 9-4 (assuming successful revival)

The situation is a lot better but given that the game is NOC, nowhere near a certain win. Furthermore there is the aforementioned risk of a Mafia Roleblocker or something similiar.

Case Town

After C2: 9-3 or 8-4 (assuming failed revival)

In other words, our situation only improves if Manix is Town and the revival is successful, otherwise it gets worse or stays around the same (the latter only if we lynch Mafia).

---

There's one more thing I'd like to know. Manix, why did you claim? We covered that it probably wasn't a good decision, but surely you must have had some sort of reason regardless. I apologize if you answered this before, I probably missed it in that case.

Hey, I suck at quoting posts. Regardless, I see no indications of a third-party in my role PM.

[Shinori]

Sorry i slept in today came back to ltos of walls of texts. First off i want to reply to something as i finish rereading everything.

@Kaoz: (Too lazy to quote) Assuming manix is a mafia reviver, if we have a vigilante, which i think the chances of one in this game could be high considering who some of the characters are in this game, the vigilante can kill off the manix while players vote off marth.

Now let me reread stuff.

[Kaoz]

@Shinori

I don't know Golden Sun at all. I also don't think it's beneficial to make setup assumptions based on the game. The only thing you could say about a Vig being more likely is that we have actually more roles in this game thanks to the Djinn abilities.

Wait. WAIT.

##Unvote

##Vote: Kaoz

Assuming Proto didn't screw with the ratio that much, I'd guess there's five mafia members. Why are you assuming less than that?

I'm not. Those numbers were a continuation from my former example.

I assumed 5 Mafia. So it'd be

9-4

9-5 (successful revival)

9-4 (successful lynch)

But you're right, I actually did forget the NK, so

8-4 (NK)

Which makes the situation actually worse than I thought it would be in this case.