[NOC] Volcanic Anonymafia - Game Over

[Shiki Ryougi]

Wow, how did I miss Flaming Hot, his post was right before mine. Anyway ... even if you feel that your suspicions are similar to everyone else's, you should at least state WHY you don't like a certain player as well, otherwise it just looks convenient. How many votes does FH have on him right now, though?

Also, Frank Lucas, I'm not a girl.

[Aizen]

Oh cool didn't even realize that I put FH at L-1.

##Unvote (Flaming Hot)

Just in case. Chances are this will be where my vote is by phase end though.

@Pasasdena: Meant "his/her" dammit cut me some slack.

[All Might]

Morm was scum, meaning he knew that he wouldn't actually get to make a shot after all. Him promising to shoot you means nothing at all. In fact, seeing as he was probably just trying to WIFOM at that point, him saying he'd shoot you could even be taken the opposite way as you want us to take it. I'd still rather lynch FH over you and have him shoot you if he's town, but if you're the one who ends up getting lynched, the reverse is okay too. It seems to be an even 4/4 split atm, though that might change depending on what Fail thinks after rereading your posts.

Again, Frank, what do you think of Bored? You said earlier that he seemed more likely to be wrong townie to you, but has your opinion of him changed with Moe's point? Asking because if you flip town, Bored will probably jump up to the top of my scumreads.

[Aizen]

Well that's true, but whenever scum pushes that aggressively on someone (saying you'd shoot someone is pretty aggressive) they're usually town. Which leads to what I want to say about Bored. Before Moe made that point, all I really had against Bored was that he was pushing a case on me really really hard, and seeing as scum only need one more mislynch to win, they're naturally going to try and push a mislynch instead of bussing one of their buddies until they're forced to bus. Of course, that's not scummy by itself because he could just be wrong town. Hence why I thought he was just wrong town. But the fact that Moe pointed out to me that he really hasn't been scumhunting before, and has just tunneled me since the end of D2, makes me think that he might actually be scum. So yeah I switched my view NOW.

So you guys would prefer I shot FH then if I'm lynched?

[Aizen]

Also shit man can someone who's on my wagon unvote me in case scum decide to hammer me (though then again if that happens I'll just shoot the guy who hammered me)

[Shiki Ryougi]

Also shit man can someone who's on my wagon unvote me in case scum decide to hammer me (though then again if that happens I'll just shoot the guy who hammered me)

If that's what you're worried about ...

##Unvote

I'm not letting anyone hammer any time soon. Even if you are scum, losing discussion time hurts a lot.

[All Might]

It's 6/2 atm, so scum actually need two more mislynches to win, not one. And that's if the mislynch also results in town getting shot. If the vengeful shot hits scum, scum would need two additional mislynches after that one for a total of three more.

If you get lynched and you are town, I would say FH > Bored for your shot.

Well that's true, but whenever scum pushes that aggressively on someone (saying you'd shoot someone is pretty aggressive) they're usually town. Which leads to what I want to say about Bored. Before Moe made that point, all I really had against Bored was that he was pushing a case on me really really hard, and seeing as scum only need one more mislynch to win, they're naturally going to try and push a mislynch instead of bussing one of their buddies until they're forced to bus. Of course, that's not scummy by itself because he could just be wrong town. Hence why I thought he was just wrong town. But the fact that Moe pointed out to me that he really hasn't been scumhunting before, and has just tunneled me since the end of D2, makes me think that he might actually be scum. So yeah I switched my view NOW.

So you guys would prefer I shot FH then if I'm lynched?

Also, there's a logical fallacy in that bolded bit. It not being scummy by itself doesn't make him town any more than it makes him scum.

As far as votes go, I believe FH and Frank both have 3 votes for them, with Pasadena and Frank currently voteless.

[C. C.]

Moeblobs has been checking up on the topic all day and only now does Moeblobs notice that the quoted text in FH's posts are FH's own thoughts.

Wow yeah, Moeblobs wasn't sure where her vote should go by day end, but between Flaming Hot and Frank, Flaming Hot is just so much worse now. It's just so lazy and assuming. He doesn't even bother to cite a reason? Moeblobs doesn't care how scummy Frank is to anyone, but a vote like that is just deplorable in comparison. You could not possibly sheep harder if you tried.

[Ochako Uraraka]

Hm, I haven't had much fruitfulness. Frank's reasonings toward Invisible during Day 1 were ultimately wrong, but the same goes for other people (such as, from the top of my head, Moeblobs). His D2 onward consisted on heavily suspecting Mormegil, and he continued to do so until Mormegil's lynch on D3. Now, scum bussing is not unheard of, but bussing another member of the scumteam to these lenghts, in such a manner that it becomes a 1 vs 1 where both of you are likely to be lynched, is baffling and suicidal. If both of Frank and Mormegil are scum, that's some terrific, bold staging there.

But I digress, this is scumspec at its worst. Frank also had weird, misrepped reasons to defend himself from Bored during Day 3. I'd like to see what other people think of that actually.

At the same time, this Flaming Hot wagon feels like it is based on a glorified Day 1 read on him. Though, with his more recent post, it holds more water. I'd feel safer lynching him as he had more than enough chance to clean himself up.

I'd personally not mind having both at L-1, because if scum tried to act clever and hammer then without other people's consent, they would suffer being shot back for certain. But now that this is already out there, it's not as significant anymore, I suppose.

All in all, I feel my vote should stay on Flaming Hot.

[Aizen]

It's 6/2 atm, so scum actually need two more mislynches to win, not one. And that's if the mislynch also results in town getting shot. If the vengeful shot hits scum, scum would need two additional mislynches after that one for a total of three more.

If you get lynched and you are town, I would say FH > Bored for your shot.

Also, there's a logical fallacy in that bolded bit. It not being scummy by itself doesn't make him town any more than it makes him scum.

As far as votes go, I believe FH and Frank both have 3 votes for them, with Pasadena and Frank currently voteless.

Yeah atm, but D3 it obviously wasn't 6/2 and they only needed a mislynch (and a misshot) in order to win.

Got it. It'd be safer anyway.

He could be wrong town. If I didn't really think of him as scummy otherwise except for that, I'm just going to think he's wrong town (since it's not like town plays perfect -- I'm a perfect example lol). Besides, there's 14 players in the game, and only 3 are scum. Statistically, there's a better chance he's town if I'm unsure. So innocent until proven guilty.

How much time we got left til phase end?

[Aizen]

Hm, I haven't had much fruitfulness. Frank's reasonings toward Invisible during Day 1 were ultimately wrong, but the same goes for other people (such as, from the top of my head, Moeblobs). His D2 onward consisted on heavily suspecting Mormegil, and he continued to do so until Mormegil's lynch on D3. Now, scum bussing is not unheard of, but bussing another member of the scumteam to these lenghts, in such a manner that it becomes a 1 vs 1 where both of you are likely to be lynched, is baffling and suicidal. If both of Frank and Mormegil are scum, that's some terrific, bold staging there.

But I digress, this is scumspec at its worst. Frank also had weird, misrepped reasons to defend himself from Bored during Day 3. I'd like to see what other people think of that actually.

No, you're right. When you only need one mislynch left to win the game, why the hell are scumbuddies bussing each other that hard? It's pointless, especially when later in the game you'll end up being killed by POE anyway. And it wouldn't be great staging anyway, seeing as I'm still about to get lynched.

[Prims]

Votecount 4.2

Flaming Hot (3) - Pocket Ace, Moeblobs With Hats, Failbaddon

Frank Lucas (3) - Bored, Flaming Hot, Paperclip

Not Voting: Frank Lucas, Pasadena

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. You have about 29 hours left in the day.

[All Might]

Fail, who do you actually think is scum? You said that Frank's Morm vote doesn't look like a bus to you, and that a large portion of the case against FH seems to be based on D1. You also said that Frank's D3 defence against Bored was a misrep and FH's last post was bad. The end of the your post implied that out of the two, you find FH worse, but if there weren't two clear wagons here, where would your vote be? FH, or someone else entirely?

[Ochako Uraraka]

At this point in time, I'd say the two people I suspect are Moeblobs, and to an extent I can't decide which, one of Frank Lucas and Flaming Hot. Moeblobs shows up because not only their assertiveness from previous phases diminished since the Morm lynch, they've been pressed by enigma once for reads (and that honestly seems like the only other notable thing enigma did in this game). And, as I've pointed out, Mormegil has associated themselves and defended Moeblobs out of turn. Which makes it something extra they had to answer for.

As for the Frank and Flaming duality, it's more of a gut feeling that "If one of them is scum-sided, the other is not.". Which leaves me bothered in how to perceive things. At least for now, I'd be more comfortable lynching Flaming Hot, though at times I question myself, and feel as if Frank brings some questionable mentions.

No, you're right. When you only need one mislynch left to win the game, why the hell are scumbuddies bussing each other that hard? It's pointless, especially when later in the game you'll end up being killed by POE anyway. And it wouldn't be great staging anyway, seeing as I'm still about to get lynched.

This, for example, assuming we lynched town yesterday and they shot another townie, the leftover would still be 4/3, which means mafia would need yet another mislynch, so no, mafia isn't one mislynch away from reaching parity with town.

Considering a lynched townie gets an extra shot, I suppose that if one of Frank or FH is scum, we'd still get something from today's lynch. Of course, I have to be notorious about my own assumptions and second-guess myself whenever possible, but I digress.

If there were no wagons towards those two, I'd assume I would be making a greater effort in questioning and pressioning Moeblobs, whom has stopped being a noticeable voice from halfway through Day 3 on, and my vote would likely be on them.

[Prims]

Flaming Hot and Paperclip have been prodded.

E: Bored too. Somehow I didn't notice they're supposed to be like 2 hours away from getting modkilled? (they'll have 24 hours after this prod though)

Edited March 15, 2013 by Priam

[Shiki Ryougi]

Urgh ... while I still don't like Frank Lucas quite as much, his latest posts are making me rethink my suspicion of him. Although I'm still leaning scum on him because his earlier play hasn't impressed me a lot. Flaming Hot doesn't look good and hasn't made himself look better either. I'm a bit wary of Failbaddon and Bored as well, though, although right now those suspicions aren't too strong.

Sorry, I can't really make detailed posts at the moment.

As for the Frank and Flaming duality, it's more of a gut feeling that "If one of them is scum-sided, the other is not.". Which leaves me bothered in how to perceive things. At least for now, I'd be more comfortable lynching Flaming Hot, though at times I question myself, and feel as if Frank brings some questionable mentions.

Failbaddon, is there any other reason besides "gut feeling" that you think only one of Frank Lucas and Flaming Hot are scum?

[C. C.]

At this point in time, I'd say the two people I suspect are Moeblobs, and to an extent I can't decide which, one of Frank Lucas and Flaming Hot. Moeblobs shows up because not only their assertiveness from previous phases diminished since the Morm lynch, they've been pressed by enigma once for reads (and that honestly seems like the only other notable thing enigma did in this game). And, as I've pointed out, Mormegil has associated themselves and defended Moeblobs out of turn. Which makes it something extra they had to answer for.

Moeblobs must have missed the post you mentioned at some point. If you mean #346, Moeblobs never saw it until awhile ago, and didn't think it was timely by that point to address it.

Moeblobs disagrees with it anyway. Moeblobs sees/saw scum in both Mormegil and Frank

Moeblobs has had less to assert with the game winding down, and the previous main scumreads (Pasadena and Bored) of Moeblobs aren't getting any more criticism or generating anything new to jump at. The newer scumreads have taken some understanding to discover on Moeblobs' part, which gives less of a chance for Moeblobs to be assertive.

Also that big dumb D2 fight sucked a decent amount of fun that Moeblobs was having from the game.

[Rain Nijika]

Ugh, sorry. I've been having limited access to a computer, thought it wouldn't affect my play, but it has been more than I realized it would. I'll try and get a decent post up in a bit, but one thing I've noticed is Frank: Why are you letting other people argue you in and out of your read on me? Solidify your read and stick to it.

[Ochako Uraraka]

Failbaddon, is there any other reason besides "gut feeling" that you think only one of Frank Lucas and Flaming Hot are scum?

No, no. The gut feeling is my assumption that one of them is probably not scum. Something I've been getting that, despite having no conclusive reason that leads to that, bothers how I should take their posts. The reasons I think they're likely to be scum are present in the thread for a good while.

However, if you'd like, I'll make an effort to explain it out better. But do reply fast, I'm likely to have a full day of assignments tomorrow until evening, which is very close to phase end by my time zone.

I do understand if people feel there's been a lack of effort in expressing my points, I apologize and will try to step it up as soon as I can, this week has been mentally sour to me for personal reasons.

Moeblobs must have missed the post you mentioned at some point. If you mean #346, Moeblobs never saw it until awhile ago, and didn't think it was timely by that point to address it.

Moeblobs disagrees with it anyway. Moeblobs sees/saw scum in both Mormegil and Frank

Moeblobs has had less to assert with the game winding down, and the previous main scumreads (Pasadena and Bored) of Moeblobs aren't getting any more criticism or generating anything new to jump at. The newer scumreads have taken some understanding to discover on Moeblobs' part, which gives less of a chance for Moeblobs to be assertive.

Also that big dumb D2 fight sucked a decent amount of fun that Moeblobs was having from the game.

... I'll trust your judgment on that. Some of what you say does match with what I feel, with regards to the lack of content to analyze.

I'll attempt to take a more definite stance and assume that FH is the more likely to be scum. Frank and Morm as scum would be an insane bussing, and, considering how the town shot is still up, they'd still be losing yet another member should FH be town.

Meanwhile, I shall eagerly await more content from Bored specifically.

[Shiki Ryougi]

If you can explain it better, that would help quite a bit because I'm not seeing your logic.

[Ochako Uraraka]

Very well, I'll try to explain as good as I can as promised.

With regards to Frank, while I've had some issues reading him throughout day 3, Bored did the kind gesture of showing me the post that summed up his case on Frank, and I concurred, and built my suspicion on Frank accordingly. I've given Frank the benefit of doubt seeing that he defended himself, however, I later retract it as I felt I've misread his defence with regards to Bored's accusations. After Mormegil has flipped scum, I've been stuck undecided, as there is sense in what Frank says about Mormegil x Frank being too hard a bus for mafia to proceed with. Though I also feel that some of the points he brings, such as the one I nitpick here, are incorrect and not as relevant.

... on a reread, I just realized I missed a pretty big post from Frank Lucas. I can't say how relevant this post is at first read, but it makes me feel more comfortable lynching FH over him now.

Now, as for Flaming Hot, there is definitively less I can talk about, since his content has been vastly smaller as well. I sum up as much as I can here, though I retract some of my trail of thought in the end, so I'll commit to fixing this as I can: his issues with catching up with the game outshade even Paperclip, and he once more joins a wagon without much reasoning behind it. He makes a pretty big deal of saying he'll catch up and promising content, though even when he does, it's still very unsatisfactory, and he hasn't shown any signs of making up for it, rather, he comes back very poorly, saying that he is a poor lynch option because his only target for his vengeance shot will be Frank, and votes on Frank stating that the reasons are out there. If he really thinks that Frank is scummy, it's contradictory to imply that his vengeance shot will probably be a waste, for starters.

My issues with my own conclusions on FH are revolving on his own lack of content. So I can't say I'll ever be content with lynching/not lynching him unless he steps up his play, and signs point that he won't. And I feel I can't really build a more solid case on him with what's given, which is a bummer. However, I feel it's a much better lead than what I can see from Frank, and, considering the difference in content amounts, I find that pretty significant now.

I'll be sleeping shortly, as it is well past midnight here, but I'll try to come up with more before end phase, if anybody feels necessary.

[Aizen]

In class right now and not sure if I'll be able to be online after this.

##Vote Flaming Hot

He's at L-1 so be wary.

[C. C.]

Moeblobs is still around but won't be for deadline again. No change in reads since the last post of Moeblobs. Still good on lynching Flaming Hot.

[Marisa Kirisame]

Oh crap I don't want to be modkilled

Um we have like 90 minutes left for te record but I'm probably going to end up falling asleep before then welp

I'll be back in half an hour to hammer I guess

[Ochako Uraraka]

Well, I'm back and I see I got no response from Pasadena regarding my post, and there wasn't other signiticant activity either, as far as I see. Well... There's not much to be done, with this activity.

At this moment, I suppose it is best for someone to just hammer Flaming Hot, lest some miracle happens and all the players start posting content this close to deadline.

If he does turn out to be town, he's probably going to shoot Frank Lucas, according to his reads (or lack, thereof). I don't really agree, but I have no better lead right now, due to the lack of overall content.