Drafters Mafia Game Thread - GAME OVER

[Terrador]

Mmm. I'd rather not.

But it has to do with hammering if you hadn't guessed!

I win completely alone and can't win along side town or mafia though.

Also I THINK I am more harmful to scum than I am town. Not that it matters though cause I don't care either way.

Btw the potential mylo is probably because of me. I would assume.

Shinori, if you're telling the truth: you can't win alongside town, and we have no confirmed scum target. And, since we apparently have no alignment cop (fakeclaim, by my best guess--wolves tend to have those, if I recall correctly, so why not other third parties?), you're a definite lynch target.

If you're lying about your alignment and win condition, and you're scum with a fakeclaim: that's an obvious lynch, but I see absolutely no reason for a scum to attempt something like this--just absolutely never.

If you're lying about your fakeclaim: now, that's something that could cause some doubt. If there is a town alignment cop, things get a little sketchy--if s/he comes out with a read on a guaranteed scum, that would be something worth looking into... if that person could be somehow confirmed as telling the truth, which is its own nasty can of worms. A very shaky possibility, but honestly, probably the only thing that can cover your ass.

Also, one last thing to note: if you're a third party, as you claim, operating off of Strege's 5 non-town number from way back when and the reasonable assumption that there are only three factions, the numbers stand at 6 town, 4 mafia, and Shinori. Assuming a mislynch and a mafia kill on another townie, that would leave us at 4-4-1--and the keyword is could lose. Something about this figure makes me suspect that Shinori hammering gives him a kill, if he's telling the truth, but... I dunno.

Point is: there is no conceivable reason that a town-friendly role would out themselves as unable to win with town in a mislynch-or-potentially-lose situation. If he has no reason to lie, then co-operating with him is almost certainly not in our best interest--therefore, let's not let him hammer, okay?

-----

With all of that said, it does seem a bit like Shinori wants to be lynched--I don't know him that well, but I still don't get why he would blunder into a fairly open-and-shut lynch. I don't like it, I don't trust it, I don't understand why, if intentional, it would be at this gesture--but at the same time, with our very limited information, I don't think we can afford to pass this up.

[Shinori]

You don't let me hammer and I'll make it definte mylo. Or I can just force you to waste a lynch by lynching me since I will side with scum even if I can't win along side them.

[Shinori]

And like seriously all the thirds in the past few games haven't been able to win along side town or scum. Remember strege in touhou?

[Shinori]

Oh btw my win con is actually similiar to strege's as well. I'll say that.

And no I don't gain a kill. If I'm hammering it stops me from blindly using my one shot ability that I'd rather not use.

[BBM]

So basically you're some sort of Lyncher Assassin, with a 1-shot kill you can use to help you take down your target, which is why it's potential MYLO at 6/4/1. Your play supports that sort of role so I'm inclined to believe you're not mafia BSing.

I would support massclaim btw. Popcorn claiming with Elie to start us off.

[Baldrick]

Well, when you win, you leave the game, right? So if we ever get to 4/4/1, unless we have another role that can get us out of LYLO (unlikely), we'll lose if Shinori either wins or sides with scum. Even if it's not MYLO we don't really have a mislynch up our sleeve anyway, so we lose nothing by lynching Shinori and gain more time to scumhunt. UNLESS there's some way Shinori can help us. What can you do for us, Shinori?

PEdit @BBM: He says he doesn't gain a kill. Unless him hammering means the day continues? I'm in over my head here.

No objections to massclaim. I think I can be of use.

[Jaybee]

but the implication here is that shinori can't win at the same time as town/maf, ie if he wins, he wins alone, town loses, maf loses.

assuming shinori has some kind of dumb killing ability it's 5/4 after lynching him (since he'll vengesnipe town?), maf gets a kill, 4/4 and potential game over. if we hold off on shinori and go for maf (assuming we get maf), shinori probably wins via whatever win condition wrt hammering that he has. awesome.

[Jaybee]

would prefer to settle on ACTION PLAN before massclaim but i'm fine with anything

[BBM]

Gaining a kill upon hammer is different from just having a 1-shot one to begin with, and I can't think of anything else that would put the game in potential MYLO. For it to be potential MYLO with 4 mafia alive, there would have to be 3 deaths before the start of D4, which only works out if there's an additional kill somewhere. Our Vig is dead and so is the Amnesiac, so unless the mafia have a random one somewhere, that leaves the claimed ITP.

Plus he's crumbing it super hard with "I don't want to use my ability blindly, but I will make it definite MYLO if you guys force me". At 6/4/1, if he kills a member of the town before we lynch him, that'll be 5/4 BEFORE the NK, meaning we lose. Which is why I'm sort of wary of lynching him (this is why you have Vigs, bleh).

[BBM]

When he said "I don't win with town or mafia", I personally took that to mean that he can't win with either side just by surviving to the end of the game, not that he prevents other teams from winning if he fulfills his wincon. That would be sort of lame for both sides otherwise if he could, because he'd be able to win D1 if he got lucky, with not much town or mafia could do about it.

He also compared his role to Strege's in Touhou, and that's how Strege's wincon worked there, so eh. Of course, he could be lying about that, but third-party wincons that make the game end prematurely are super-lame if they can be fulfilled as early as D1.

[Baldrick]

a lot of jb ‘s content has been sketchy (he misses elieson’s content against darros, painting kirsche’s view on marth as more waffly than it actually was) he seemed to arbitrarily decide some newb behaviours were newbtown (breezy, terrador) and some were scummy (bear), but what I’m most concerned about how he handled the cop claim. he had previously found shinori’s behaviour dubious, but it was ok when he was trying to get a guilty lynched without claiming. i feel subtly encouraging the lynch would be how scum would handle a situation like that. yes hindsight but shinori’s weirdness and timing of the cop claim (just after an extension) should have been taken into account (he wasn’t the only one guilty of that)

shin was enigmatic on elie in 284 (again in 434). what exactly is strange about him? it is just the reaction test and the misunderstanding about his consolidating late day 1?

his opinion of rapier’s two votes on marth (1) is an oversimplification of the vote, rapier thought he was being unhelpful, and when he continued to be unhelpful when there was more content around it was more telling. (2) ignores the fact he was wanting to consolidate a lynch, and he hadn’t realised marth could be put at deadline lynch until then. the interesting part is he calls it opportunistic, when rapier had unvoted marth that same page, and shin thought marth was scummy, and marth hadn’t flipped yet.

can't focus anymore, i'll talk about my lesser reads later.

##vote: jb

before i sleep, let me just say i really don't think the third death has anything to do with shinori. if it was triggered by his not hammering, it would have happened already.

[Elieson]

I'm pretty sure Shjnori is "Shin" then?

Answer me this, and I'll claim.

[Elieson]

Because my role heavily implies the existence of finding a lyncher (but doesn't say it outright)

[Elieson]

Also Shinori if you are third your an idiot

[Elieson]

Who's Huck Finn btw? And I just woke up. And based on what I was gathering from kirsche, I assumed he was either RoleCop, Voyeur or Watcher, meaning that information he has on tracker!breezy is probably accurate (role regarding anyway). Just my thoughts on that.

I need coffee.

[Elieson]

Also a thought, if Kirsche had scanned and determined breezy's alignment as tho he were alignment cop, and scum!shinori jan!killed him, mafia gets a role that's an easy safe claim.

I dunno the likelyhood of that but IMO that's happened before. I'd be very hesitant about taking claims at face value at this point, even if we are popcorn claiming.

[BBM]

Huck Finn is Baldrick.

Strege, near the end of yesterday, you said that you thought that the Shin/Marth interactions looked like bussing. What's your opinion on Shin now that Marth has flipped town?

[Shin]

Well, that was something. I'd like to know what Breezy got up to last night, and especially who he saw. I'm really not sure what to make of Shinori, Imma come back to this when I'm not roasting.

[Strege]

would prefer to settle on ACTION PLAN before massclaim but i'm fine with anything

When he said "I don't win with town or mafia", I personally took that to mean that he can't win with either side just by surviving to the end of the game, not that he prevents other teams from winning if he fulfills his wincon. That would be sort of lame for both sides otherwise if he could, because he'd be able to win D1 if he got lucky, with not much town or mafia could do about it.

He also compared his role to Strege's in Touhou, and that's how Strege's wincon worked there, so eh. Of course, he could be lying about that, but third-party wincons that make the game end prematurely are super-lame if they can be fulfilled as early as D1.

Also a thought, if Kirsche had scanned and determined breezy's alignment as tho he were alignment cop, and scum!shinori jan!killed him, mafia gets a role that's an easy safe claim.

I dunno the likelyhood of that but IMO that's happened before. I'd be very hesitant about taking claims at face value at this point, even if we are popcorn claiming.

Huck Finn is Baldrick.

Strege, near the end of yesterday, you said that you thought that the Shin/Marth interactions looked like bussing. What's your opinion on Shin now that Marth has flipped town?

And Baldrick subbed for Rapier, for anyone who didn't notice.

Hold on to your butt; I was sleeping. I still think Shin's attitude toward Marth looks scummy, and as I said Marth's alignment doesn't factor in to the read much because it seems like it could be bussing or just a blown-up argument. I don't understand how Shin wasn't saying Marth was scummy for producing content quickly under pressure, which would be a trap argument (by which I mean it would be impossible to appease the accuser). His read on JB as it is explained in post 434 and followed up with in post 441 is a mess -- JB never tried to pass his behaviour off as a joke, and in fact was explicit in stating that he was serious and that he thought Prims was being serious. It looks like Shin was skimming there and, even if he was correct, the comments on JB "harping" or "going on forever" about it ignores the fact that he was being pushed for it and just defending oneself is a nulltell unless you can point out something scummy about the style of it. He doesn't comment on JB's D2 material at all, yet post 434 indicates to me that JB was his secondary scumread at the time.

I need to update my reads on a few people later today, but a quick skim indicates that none of them are particularly likely to ping me this much right now. I find it very suspect that Shin's top two reads as of last phase were so full of holes.

##Vote: Shin

Being on the other side of table regarding the claimed harmless ITP is weird. I'm taking everything Shinori says with a grain of salt, since (while we're talking about Touhou mafia) I bluffed game-impacting abilities for three day phases straight as an ITP who didn't really have any. Everything else is math, though. Lynching Shinori and being at 5/4 next phase is scary, but the alternatives (assuming we lynch scum, there is only the scum nightkill, and Shinori idles) are 5/3/1 and 6/3/0. If Shinori kills (assuming he can) then we have 5/2/1, 4/3/1, 6/2/0, or 5/3/0, and if he poofs (assuming he can) then we have 5/3/0 or 6/3/0. If we hit town then scum can win by killing town unless Shinori kills one of them, and if he is actually unable to kill then we're probably screwed if we lynch town at all.

Based on that, I think it's in our best interest to lynch scum over Shinori if we're confident in our ability to do so, so I think massclaiming isn't a bad idea.

[Strege]

Oops, I didn't mean to quote those first three things without specifically addressing them. The only one I think I didn't cover is Elie's post, which I just don't quite understand.

[BBM]

I don't quite like parts of your Shin argument. I agree with what you're saying about his JB case, but I don't like how yesterday when we thought Marth was scum, you bolstered your case with the idea that it was bussing, and today after he's flipped town, you're saying it was just a case to get a mislynch. I don't disagree with what you say about Shin's Marth case either, but I don't like your attempts to tie that to Marth's alignment when it's evident that it's not really a factor in your case.

[Elieson]

Oops, I didn't mean to quote those first three things without specifically addressing them. The only one I think I didn't cover is Elie's post, which I just don't quite understand.

Kirsche heavily implied that his confidence of breezy being tracker was both context and role related, so i am assuming that kirsche had a role that let him get there (Rolecop, alignment cop, watcher ad voyeur can all help determine truth). If a janitor was responsivle for the kill (and shinori was scum), this Janitor'd kill on kirsche has basically given however killed Kirsche a free role to safe claim.

If I could figure out what kirsche's role could possibly be based on in thread content alone, I'm sure a scumTEAM could figure it out. Or maybe they have an info role which learned what kirsche is, I dunno. Both of those ideas explain why he was killed last night and not breezy (assuming breezy is still town!tracker).

Shinori made a ballsy claim and now with an unknown flip, I don't know if we should believe all the claims that come out (obviously) but specifically I think that a harmless ITP claim this late in the game is a sure fire way to draw a lynch away from yourself. Now we could be faced with a scenario that pretty much raises the likelyhood of a town lynch entirely because we're not letting ourselves look at Shinori anymore.

I dunno, what I'm getting at is just be extra particular about other people's claims.

I still refuse to full claim until Shinori claims his character (at minimum).

[Elieson]

In fact, anyone have an idea why claimed tracker wasn't killed (other than what I suggested above)?

[Da Bear]

What difference would knowing Shinori' s character name madness Elie?

In fact, anyone have an idea why claimed tracker wasn't killed (other than what I suggested above)?

I don't but I think your idea makes sense.

[Da Bear]

I type make and the kindle gives me madness...