Semi-Precious Mafia - Mafia wins!

[charlie_]

just because you're next on the lynch list

[Wayward Winds]

Okey dokey, 'sacrificial lamb 1' is out of the inexplicable comm. deadzone at the heart of his local county (not going there again any time soon) and able to participate. Time to see how many people are seeing my unavoidable 11 hour silence as suspicious.

...At least eleven hours of thread should give me something to base my own suspicions on. Back in a mo, once I do a quick eval. of the voting so far.

(...New player policy? Uh oh...)

[Da Bear]

It's rvs....

Good luck with that.

[Bluedoom]

##unvote

##vote: da bear[\b]

that vote on shin was too stupid even for rvs.

[Bluedoom]

Oh fuck look i was using the phone for that, meh.

[Shin]

You're all so horrible! It's just because I'm beautiful!

##Unvote

##Vote: Da BEAR

I don't care how smarter than the average bear you are, that was too silly!

[Wayward Winds]

Okay, let's see what trends I can "see" (because let's face it, all I can really do is speculate at the moment. It's still early D1 after all). Time for the first essay style post as I play catchup.

Scorri - Yet to post. It's now 12 hours into D1, which pretty much wipes out the old "asleep" excuse, unless yesterday was really strenuous. Alternatively, she woke up, went straight to work without looking at Serenes, and hasn't got back yet. But whatever, this appears to be common behaviour for her, so... I can't read much into her absence. Yet. But if it goes on much longer, then I'm going to start reading it as deliberately lying low. (Suspicion rating; 5/10)

Kirsche - Exactly one post so far, jumping on the Scorri bandwagon with no reason other than others are doing it. Uh, until Scorri actually says something and we can parse it for information, I'm not rolling either way with whether voting for her is good or bad. So for now, Kirsche is in the clear (in my eyes). (Suspicion rating; 4/10)

Shin - Bizarre. Again, I'm ignoring the first Scorri vote, but then he voted for himself? What sort of logic is that unless he wants to draw attention? Either he's trying to lure the mafia into a false sense of security by playing the fool (and being a veteran, I don't really think that would work), or he has nothing to fear from them. Or, I suppose, he could be doing a scorched Shin policy where he dies and thus deflects attention from other Mafia members voting to lynch him.

...I'm thinking too much on this, I'm going to move on. (Suspicion rating; 7/10)

Bluedoom - Let's see, changed lynch targets twice so far, but seems to be hopping on about on whims more than anything else. First vote - aimed at the sole person who'd posted before (Bard), who did seem to have a logical point. But this being the opening moves... I don't know. Second vote was chasing Shin, but as I've already said, I'm doubtful of why anyone would vote for themselves. Third vote was for Da Bear, who hasn't really been offering any logic behind his votes either. That could go either way.

All in all, Bluedoom sits on the middle for me. (Suspicion rating; 5/10)

BBM - Posted once, voting for Scorri. Raised a valid point in doing so, so isn't ringing any scum bells at the moment. (Scorri, hurry up and defend yourself, because the missing in action behaviour isn't going to work forever!) (Suspicion rating; 2/10)

SB - Switched votes twice, the first two times latching onto running trends as if he doesn't care who gets lynched, only that someone does, and the third time voting for me on what I can only describe as rather flimsy reasons. I could be vindictive over that. Trend following meanwhile could be one of two things; he could be Town and just going on a witch hunt, knowing that once someone's lynched we'll be able to see who they were and use that plus their previous posts to get a better picture of everyone else. Or he could be scum, in which case we'll notice when he doesn't follow a trend because that would compromise a teammate. At least, if bare bones logic has any say in the matter.

Anyway, I'm going to say either way, plus one suspicion point for the flimsy reasoning when voting to lynch me. (Suspicion rating; 6/10)

Polydeuces - Hmm. I think the first vote was just trying to draw a reaction from Refa (which it did), but then I could be mistaken. I can't really argue with the second vote either, so for now I'm getting a overall slight Town vibe. (Suspicion Rating; 3/10)

Da Bear/Wallcrab - Some odd behaviour, such as replying to himself with apparent confusion. Uh... two people using his identity? On the voting front, no real justification given although one was jumping on the Shin bandwagon. It could go either way. (Suspicion Rating; 5/10)

Refa - I'm getting a general Town vibe. His first lynch target is completely understandable, voting for someone who voted for him. His post before suggested thinking things through rather than voting on impulse, which is sensible behaviour. Either that or a scum effort to slowly shift attention to someone else, but I think that's a long shot. And his most recent action was turning on Shin's weird self vote. So far, nothing particularly incriminating. (Suspicion Rating; 2/10)

Bard - That first vote was another flimsy one; Scorri signing up by IIRC doesn't mean a thing when she still wouldn't know her role before getting that role PM. Okay, so it was probably another attempt at provoking a reaction, but I'm going to label it as slightly fishy. Plus, he hasn't been back since that vote (12 hours later). (Suspicion Rating; 6/10)

Wayward Winds (because I really should be fair) - Didn't pop up for eleven hours, despite looking in during hour... (checks times) ...three. Spews some rubbish about being out of internet range. Fishy!!!

...Okay, I'll elaborate. 9 o'clock (GMT) start, promptly disappeared into phone dead zone for a day's conservation work, finally got back into reception range for 4 o'clock (GMT). Promptly popped up. You choose whether to accept that as a reason or an excuse (but hey, still faster than Scorri!)

Okay, so looking at my suspicion ratings, I'm going to start off with...

##Vote: Shin

...And wait for everyone to vote for me for "being too thorough".

[Da Bear]

*stuff*

since when are people able to get that much out of 1 page of rvs.

srsly

[Da Bear]

also my voting confusion was me being on phone and botching a vote.

[Refa]

Refa - I'm getting a general Town vibe. His first lynch target is completely understandable, voting for someone who voted for him. His post before suggested thinking things through rather than voting on impulse, which is sensible behaviour. Either that or a scum effort to slowly shift attention to someone else, but I think that's a long shot. And his most recent action was turning on Shin's weird self vote. So far, nothing particularly incriminating. (Suspicion Rating; 2/10)

To be fair, my first lynch target was actually BBM (I think you might have read over it?) and was based on some pretty shoddy reasoning. Regardless, all of these votes took place during RVS (Random Voting Stage), so don't take any of them too seriously (not to say that scum vibes can't be gotten this early, but voting reasons will always be flimsy).

Also I'm curious, what is the scale for your votes? Is 5/10 null, with anything below as reading town and anything above as reading scum?

[Wayward Winds]

Also I'm curious, what is the scale for your votes? Is 5/10 null, with anything below as reading town and anything above as reading scum?

...Pretty much. I know there's little evidence for votes to go on at this stage (although admittedly this only applies to Town, scum know who each other are, and by extension Town... unless there are Independents mixed in). But I'm trying to avoid impulse voting or "getting a bad vibe". If I can't back my lynch vote with logic - although admittedly my logic can get pretty twisted at times - then I probably won't make the vote.

since when are people able to get that much out of 1 page of rvs. srsly

...By being a stupid newbie. Oh well, at least I've shown up.

[charlie_]

Wayward, have you played mafia before?

[Shin]

Shin - Bizarre. Again, I'm ignoring the first Scorri vote, but then he voted for himself? What sort of logic is that unless he wants to draw attention? Either he's trying to lure the mafia into a false sense of security by playing the fool (and being a veteran, I don't really think that would work), or he has nothing to fear from them. Or, I suppose, he could be doing a scorched Shin policy where he dies and thus deflects attention from other Mafia members voting to lynch him.

...I'm thinking too much on this, I'm going to move on. (Suspicion rating; 7/10)

##Vote: Shin

...And wait for everyone to vote for me for "being too thorough".

Someone doesn't quite understand RVS, I'm smelling some major newb town.

[scorri]

Yeah, I was up for about 30 minutes after I got my role last night. And then I went to bed, woke up, went to class, studied for the test I have on Monday, and now am posting. I would appreciate it if, at least for the next few days or so, if you guys didn't push on me for activity or lack there of. I'm busy and I know I'm going to be busy. Theoretically, after this weekend, I should be good again, but I'm not always going to be posting. I'm aware that this is just RVS, but I figure that it's better to explain now than have to try to explain myself out of a lynch 48 hours down the road or whatever.

Now, as for actual stuff that's happened... a whole lot of nothing for the most part. I liked Waywards post. Even if there's not a lot to go on, the effort is nice to see from a new person, and so yay! As for my vote... eh. Don't really have much to go on. So I think for now, I'll not place a vote and see where we are next time I come to check in.

[charlie_]

Either way, Wayward's post gives me tryhard townvibes right now and I think his scumbuddies would've told him to coast for a bit because he could get away with it. Also his reaction doesn't seem bad from a person who probably doesn't understand RVS. We'll see how he goes.

scorri's last post is eh... I don't think inactivity is scummy but I don't see why you didn't just drop a vote down and she seems kind of defensive over really weak allegations anyway, I don't think anyone other than Wayward in the game considers inactivity a scumtell.

##Unvote

##Vote: scorri

[scorri]

Hmm, ok, answer me this SB: what would putting a vote down do?

[scorri]

Also, wasn't really trying to be defensive, was more attempting to explain a thing that I know will be an issue for the next couple of days. Also, you say that people don't consider inactivity a scumtell, yet I could point you to many games where people have considered people suspicious because they were inactive. So.

[charlie_]

It's not that not putting down a vote is bad, it's more why are you making excuses for it? There's no real reason not to and if you hadn't brought it up it wouldn't have bugged me but it just kind of looks like a preemptive defense.

And we both know the amount of time people have avaliable irl doesn't make them scummy.

[scorri]

I know that, and you know that, and yet it's amazing how often people will bring up not putting a vote down as scummy or not being around as scummy and it's frustrating to no end, but it's what people do. And so I give reasons for what I do even if I don't think what I'm doing is scummy because I know that someone somehow will find it scummy.

[Refa]

Personally I'm finding scorri's presumptuousness to be a null tell at this point in time, as I have no reason to believe it's something that only scum scorri would do.

[Shin]

I'm not really reading anything off of scorri either, town can be as defensive as scum. Although if you anticipated being so busy, perhaps it wasn't a great idea to sign up?

[Zkirsche]

Plus, he hasn't been back since that vote (12 hours later).

Just so you know, it's perfectly normal for one to be away for like 12 hours. There's more to the day than sleep, and some of us have stuff we need to give our undivided attention to during the day.

Anyway, Scorrri telling people that she's going to be away is not really weird, but her reaction to SB's vote seems a bit off. That kind of rambling defense IS really defensive. Also after recent games I think that giving an excuse for inactivity rather than just disappearing is more popular for scum than town, so there's that.

[Wayward Winds]

Just so you know, it's perfectly normal for one to be away for like 12 hours.

...To be fair, I did in that monster post offer a possible explaination why Scorri was still absent after 12 hours (sleep then work), which wasn't too far off her actual explaination. But, that being a tryhard newbie's too long post, my mind sort of drifted off that thought by the time I got down to the end. I'll apologise for that now; sorry!

Anyway, forgetting that any scum needs to pass him/herself off as Town to the actual Town players (lest they find themselves lynched), I think I'm going to button up for the night. Maybe once the random voting phase has passed I'll be less... idiotic in my actions. We've got some 50hrs left for day 1 after all.

In the meantime;

##Unvote.

I'll try voting again in about twelve hours, when I can make a better informed decision.

[MRDRHAWK]

I'll never get how being busy IRL automatically makes you a target, and the people who figure that's the case always baffle me.

[Bard]

...To be fair, I did in that monster post offer a possible explaination why Scorri was still absent after 12 hours (sleep then work), which wasn't too far off her actual explaination. But, that being a tryhard newbie's too long post, my mind sort of drifted off that thought by the time I got down to the end. I'll apologise for that now; sorry!

I was about to point out the discrepancy when I reached that part of the post.

Aside from that, however, trying that hard in the early game is often also done by newbie scum trying their hardest to look Town. The problem chiefly is how arbitrary Wayward applies his/her reads.

Kirsche - Exactly one post so far, jumping on the Scorri bandwagon with no reason other than others are doing it. Uh, until Scorri actually says something and we can parse it for information, I'm not rolling either way with whether voting for her is good or bad. So for now, Kirsche is in the clear (in my eyes). (Suspicion rating; 4/10)

Here he says he's not rolling either way, but the rating clearly indicates Kirsche is more Town than Scum.

Polydeuces - Hmm. I think the first vote was just trying to draw a reaction from Refa (which it did), but then I could be mistaken. I can't really argue with the second vote either, so for now I'm getting a overall slight Town vibe. (Suspicion Rating; 3/10)

This is Polydeuces provoking reactions and being Town for it...

Bard - That first vote was another flimsy one; Scorri signing up by IIRC doesn't mean a thing when she still wouldn't know her role before getting that role PM. Okay, so it was probably another attempt at provoking a reaction, but I'm going to label it as slightly fishy. Plus, he hasn't been back since that vote (12 hours later). (Suspicion Rating; 6/10)