Semi-Precious Mafia - Mafia wins!

[charlie_]

AND THEN I GOT DISTRACTED AGAIN THANKS PAPERBLADE

so for now I'm going to focus on looking at these players because there's got to be a reason he suggested these guys over anyone else. He's been on scorri most of the game and his reasons were absolutely horrible. So there is that. Feels intentional. Forced even. I'm leaning scum on scorri due to pushing her lynch so hard, yet so poorly. Will ISO scorri later though, but from direct kirsche posts, I'm getting a read on scorri. How messed up is that?

Scum force scumreads on townies as well as on buddies. Basing a scumread on scorri solely off of kirsche's attacks on her isn't good, you don't know if he was bussing or just pushing a case badly.

Shin should stop being scummy and outting townreads/towntells. Stop it. Just stop it.

Outting townreads isn't exactly a thing that's exclusive to Shin. A lot of other players have done it this game, so what makes Shin any different? I can't tell if that's your only reason for suspecting him or not. Shin is scummy for other reasons, but this isn't one of them.

Bard is also pinging my radar. [...] His almost tunnel on scorri is something else to notice. He took a different route to scorri than Kirsche did, and leads me to suspect that one or the other is scum. It's more likely Bard IMO, but I can see reasons for only one of the two, as the conversation between them doesn't seem forced.

Wait, what? I don't get what you're saying here, at all. Why are you so sure that only one of them can be scum? People can be scummy for multiple reasons. Townies can tunnel townies or scum, scum can tunnel townies or scum. If scum are competent, their suspicious won't be forced, so that's a moot point.

Wayward's "good luck Elieson" post is really weird and I don't like it, but I can't put it into words. Agree with Bard's case on Refa, but I don't really have anything to add to it that I haven't said earlier anyway.

This is almost as bad as Void.

[Shin]

Wayward's "good luck Elieson" post is really weird and I don't like it, but I can't put it into words. Agree with Bard's case on Refa, but I don't really have anything to add to it that I haven't said earlier anyway.

Wayward's either being polite or, less likely, it's a horrible scumslip. Wayward, you've had a quite a few slip-ups and strange tells, which I'm not entirely sure that is inclusive in newb!town. Eli, care to elaborate on me? I'm charmed to be in your view, but one line a scum read does not make. I can appreciate it's been only one post, but your scumread on Bard differs a lot from DA BEAR's lazy townread on him, so MULTIPLE PERSONALITY.

[Refa]

Rereading the thread, but for now, you get this:

Votals Day 1

Bearclaw (3): Wayward Winds, Polydeuces, SB
Polydeuces (5): Refa, Marth, Bard, Shin, Bearclaw
scorri (2): BBM, kirsche
Kirsche (1): Scorri

Votals Day 2

kirsche (7): Marth, Refa, scorri, Bearclaw, Bard, Wayward Winds, Shin

Bearclaw (1): kirsche
Not voting: SB

Town

Scum

Great Person

Brief thoughts while I'm rereading:

-I think it'd be worth looking into Marth's actions, as he wasn't confirmed town, and AFAIK he didn't (fake) crumb any role that he might have; therefore, I'm inclined to believe that scum killed him more because of his arguments than anything else.

-I think looking at BBM and kirsche's (Day 2) actions will not turn up any particular valuable insights, feel free to prove me wrong.

-With 7 people alive, discounting 3rd parties at this point in time, the setup would be 4/3 at the worst. However, I'm more inclined to believe that it's 5/2, considering the number of players. Just something to keep in mind.

OK, now rereading for reals.

[Refa]

Actually looking back, might be worth checking into BBM's Day 1 reads too, since I believe that's why scum chose to shot him N1.

[Bard]

11 players 4-Mafia games are incredibly unbalanced, so with 7 alive there's no way we're at 4 Town 3 Scum.

[Shin]

Refa, Marth came across as one of the towniest in the first 2 days, I can imagine that's why he was chosen as a nightkill. I'm not sure why BBM was killed so early, he appeared as somewhat town, but he didn't really have any leading reads. All I can really see is him not liking scorri and sorta defending Poly and justifying kirsche's actions.

That also leads me to question what on earth DA BEAR was doing in N1 and N2. If Eli's claim is true, I would have hoped he'd be watching likely nightkill targets, rather than some good ol' fashioned American Football... YEAH. Eli, mind sharing your watch targets?

[Refa]

Elieson's claim is from another game.

[Refa]

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDSSSSSSSSSSS (I have nothing new to say about me, Shin, or Wayward Winds)

Bearclaw/SB

Quick question.

SB - Who did you target?

I have role related reasons for why I feel a bit better about Bear. It's not concrete reasoning (I realized in the night phase) but I still feel a little bit better about him. Even though he's subbing out. If he is what I initially thought he was, he's probably town. This is pretty much all based on claims though, so I'm still suspicious of him.

I'm curious as to what this reason is (I believe I have a faint idea of what it is), but as my vote on bearclaw was a pressure vote anyways (and Elieson has mostly alleviated things on that front) and I've got bigger scum reads to fry,

##Unvote

scorri

I had her as a null read before, but after a reread she's looking pretty scummy. Am explaining now.

Don't really have many reads. I still don't like Scorri, and something about Bard is irking me. I didn't like how quickly he dropped Scorri and even if Poly has played in games before, I dislike how he didn't vote WW earlier on grounds of him being new but was fine with voting Poly, when the latter isn't exactly showing great experience.

While I still don't agree with the reasoning, note that BBM found scorri scummy due to her reasons for voting kirsche and her early game defensiveness.

As I've said, I don't really want to lynch him. Scorri would be my #1 choice, followed by Bearclaw if I had to, since he hasn't really done anything. Of course, since he hasn't done much, it'd be a pretty shitty lynch in terms of associative reads if he flipped town.

And later he stated her to be his number one lynch target. Typically as scum, early on when there aren't much town clears or blue role reads to find, it helps to lynch the townies that have the best reads. Therefore, his death N1 does not look good on her part. Strike one.

I'll reread more later because ~tired~. BBM's response is good, Refa is good, Scorri is unchanged. "Oh I'm sorry I was defensive but here's my opinion on Bear" is not really a good response. Actually there was like 1 person voting Bear at the time so "blowing it out of proportion" is wrong. Looks like padding to make it seem like she's saying more than she has.

##Unvote

##Vote: Scorri

Scorri > BBM > Poly atm.

OK, I never noticed it before, but somehow kirsche found BBM's response good while also having him as his 2nd most viable lynch target. It's like he wasn't even trying to hide the fact that he was aiming for mislynch (whether by associative reads should he flip or Day 1 itself)! Regardless, the important thing to note here is that his case on scorri is rather weak and he never did pressure her much. In addition to his other reads, I feel as though kirsche would be less likely to pat his scum buddies on the back and more likely to cast suspicion on them (which ironically would make either one of them less suspicious on a flip). So yeah, I'm reading this more as scum distancing than anything else. Strike two.

Never voted BBM, though seriously considering changing that...

I don't like her logic for casting suspicion, as she didn't even have a scum read on him at that point; especially considering his flip, this looks kind of bad for her. Strike three.

kirsche's vote pattern for D1: Scorri-->BBM-->Scorri. Can't make anything out of it, but Scorri's LD1 wasn't really solid either. Her kirsche vote was meh at best and she didn't really spend time getting any other reads? Too bad she missed the hours before phase end, because we could've maybe got better insight on what her thoughts of the game were.

Hey, look how else was suspicious of scorri! The guy who died D2! Hmmmm....Yeah, I know I've been coming up with a lot of associative reads, but with scorri's relative lack of content, I feel like they'll help to form my opinion on her better than whatever posts she's been making. Strike four at this point.

Also;

I'm looking at scorri's kirsche vote, it came very late and didn't have much basis. Considering kirsche was never really at risk of being lynched, I'm smelling some distancing. I can appreciate scorri's busy, but the scumread on BBM and weak case on kirsche look bad.

Shin was the one who accused her of distancing yesterday, and without even bothering to respond to his querry, who is her first vote on Day 3? Oh...Shin...At the very least, this strikes me as an OMGUS, if not less blatant about it. And her reasoning for voting him wasn't particularly great either. Strike five.

It's just...these are a lot of suspicious things for a townie to do! Now, regarding the kirsche associative read, I can agree that not as much can be gotten through that due to WIFOM, setting up townie, etc. etc. However, I find it hard to believe that scum would kill both of the people who were pretty damn suspicious of scorri just to set her up, and her D1 reasoning regarding BBM and D3 reasoning regarding Shin is really giving me scum vibes. So with that in mind,

##Vote: scorri

Agree/disagree? I'd like some additional thoughts on this.

[Prims]

Mafia

[Bard]

I'm finding it hard to care.

Refa, it feels like your case is a culmination of associative reads and the strength lies more with the words and actions of others than with scorri's own actions.

How is scorri finding BBM scummy to be a scum-motivated move? What does scum stand to gain from openly announcing they distrust BBM before killing him?

Your case hinges on scorri being Scum, rather than arguing why scorri is Scum.

Bad case, would vote again.

##Unvote

##VOTE: REFA

[scorri]

Seriously, one of the first things scum learn is to never kill someone who's not looking super protown and is also casting suspicion on one of the scum team members. As for the bit about me not having a scum read on BBM, the fact that I said I was seriously considering changing my vote to him *means that I had a scum read on him*

it helps to lynch the townies that have the best reads.

This I agree with. But lynching =/= night killing. Lynching is hidden. You don't know who the scum on the wagon is or if there is scum on the wagon. A nightkill though, you know. You know scum wanted that person dead and the first thing you do is search to see who they found scummy, which is why it's not good for scum to shoot someone who was super suspicious of them.

The rest of your case is based off of poorly drawn conclusions all of which are useless without my flip. You'll making a bunch of assumptions that have no backing. My vote on Shin had nothing to do with him finding me suspicious, but rather that his opinion of me fluctuated from scummy, to maybe not scummy at all with little to no reasoning for it since I'd barely done anything. And you ignore the other content of people, instead cherry picking the parts that help your case. Like you ignore the part where Marth was also suspicious of Shin/Bearclaw for their laziness, or was wondering about kirsche bussing SB, or basically all of BBM's stuff that wasn't about me.

##Unvote

##Vote:Refa

Your case is bad, ignores basically everyone else in the game, cherry picks what you feel to be suitable evidence, and doesn't actually say anything about why I'm scummy, and rather tries to interpret the actions of dead people to fit why I'm scummy.

[Wayward Winds]

...I'm just getting confused now.

I was of the opinion that Scorri was more likely Town than not, but honestly? I have no idea anymore. Kirsche may not have pushing her particularly hard, but he was persistent about it. I'm not sure that comes under distancing, because there was plenty of distrust aimed at her from other directions as well. She may not have been lynched on D1 thanks to Poly's huge gap in votes, but distrust carries over, and if it wasn't for Bear's rather... limited contributions, we'd probably be looking at her a bit harder.

Right, time to use a bit of logic... even if I know this is going to end badly for me.

On another front, my result from targeting Scorri on N2. I am, or rather was (ability decayed on second use, so I'm booted down to vanilla) a Tracker. First night I targeted Kirsche, figuring it was better to go for a lower profile player who was nonetheless ringing some alarm bells, and got a negative result. N2 saw me target Scorri in an attempt to get some indication either way for what side she's on. It was another 'nada' result. While I did think that meant Scorri may have been Town, now I'm not so sure. Mafia have vanillas as well, and there are passive abilities to take into account as well. Not to mention Kirsche gave the same result, which only tells me he didn't steal Poly's role block that night. So, that doesn't really clear anything up.

It does tell me the role blocker is STILL OUT THERE! (Considering SB got blocked on N1, after Poly's lynch.) I can't really see a particular preference amongst the surviving players on attacking SB during D1, apart from Refa's last post (of D1) which seemed to be dismantling SB's recent posts to the exclusion of the rest of the game. He was on a time limit at the time and probably working on priority basis, but it could have meant something. Either that, or our mystery blocker just went on less mainstream targets as I was doing.

Anyway, back to Scorri. I was about to say;

I know I wasn't going to say anything on absence, but we've gone through pretty much a whole week now, and we've had one proper length post... that was mostly spent defending herself. Dare I say it, but her activity is almost starting to resemble Bearclaw's now.

...And then she pops in to prove me wrong. (For that matter, I've been repeatedly on Bear's case for laziness) She's also spot on about Elieson claiming weak watcher survivor over in Fakeclaim. Could be that Bear was assigned that role, but that would be one heck of a coincidence. I'm still not convinced there's conclusive evidence to call her scum, just that part of my 'Town' reasoning was flawed (again).

Speaking of Elieson, follow up post please? Still waiting for other opinions, not to mention the info Shin's requested. I'm reluctant to advocate a lynch on a replacement player if it really was Bear playing lazily, but at the moment you aren't really digging yourself out of his hole.

But, hmm, given the points others have raised on Refa, even I'm starting to wonder. I don't think I've ever got a conclusive reason from him why I'm considered Town. Quietly the Cop? Or Mafia trying to keep the idiot in as long as possible? (I wonder why I just remembered a certain episode of Doctor Who. The one imitating the Weakest Link.)

I'll have another couple of hours thinking about it, then decide whether to shift my vote or not.

[Wayward Winds]

It does tell me the role blocker is STILL OUT THERE! (Considering SB got blocked on N1, after Poly's lynch.)

...Obviously this assumes SB was telling the truth when he said he'd been blocked.

[Refa]

Refa, it feels like your case is a culmination of associative reads and the strength lies more with the words and actions of others than with scorri's own actions.

OK, tell me the towny things that scorri has done. Let's see, her first 4 posts are defending herself. Her first couple of reads consists of saying inactivity isn't scummy for bearclaw and voting kirsche. Then she defends herself again, and woop! Day 1 content over. Noone did much of anything for Day 2, so not holding that against her. Then with her all of 2 previously mentioned reads, she votes Shin because...I don't even know, because he didn't find her suspicious for the right reasons. And her last post is another defense post at best, an OMGUS at worst.

So you tell me: How has scorri helped town in the slightest?

How is scorri finding BBM scummy to be a scum-motivated move? What does scum stand to gain from openly announcing they distrust BBM before killing him?

Her finding BBM scummy is not a scum-motivated move. Her finding him scummy when she had no previous indications of it other than "BBM suspects me!" is.

Your case hinges on scorri being Scum, rather than arguing why scorri is Scum.

You have given me no reason to believe that scorri is town myself.

Seriously, one of the first things scum learn is to never kill someone who's not looking super protown and is also casting suspicion on one of the scum team members. As for the bit about me not having a scum read on BBM, the fact that I said I was seriously considering changing my vote to him *means that I had a scum read on him*

Firstly, there was noone looking super pro town in the eyes of everyone by the end of D1. And scum team members cast suspicion on each other all the time, it's called distancing. My point about BBM was that you had no previously held scum reads on hiim, and even after him you barely said anything despite him asking you about it during Day 1.

This I agree with. But lynching =/= night killing. Lynching is hidden. You don't know who the scum on the wagon is or if there is scum on the wagon. A nightkill though, you know. You know scum wanted that person dead and the first thing you do is search to see who they found scummy, which is why it's not good for scum to shoot someone who was super suspicious of them.

It's good of scum to shoot someone super suspicious of them because it's better for that person to be dead than continue raising cases against scum. At this point you're just arguing scum logic rather than proving that you yourself are not scummy.

The rest of your case is based off of poorly drawn conclusions all of which are useless without my flip.

Wrong.

You'll making a bunch of assumptions that have no backing. My vote on Shin had nothing to do with him finding me suspicious, but rather that his opinion of me fluctuated from scummy, to maybe not scummy at all with little to no reasoning for it since I'd barely done anything.

If it wasn't obvious what his reasoning was, it should be by now considering that he explained it to you. But hey, you didn't even respond to a post from your primary scumread, instead choosing to defend yourself from me instead. Real townie there.

Your case is bad, ignores basically everyone else in the game, cherry picks what you feel to be suitable evidence, and doesn't actually say anything about why I'm scummy, and rather tries to interpret the actions of dead people to fit why I'm scummy.

Your response is worse, considering you've basically argued no reasons for why you are town and moreso for why my case is bad.

I'm fine keeping my vote where it is.

[Refa]

I was of the opinion that Scorri was more likely Town than not, but honestly? I have no idea anymore. Kirsche may not have pushing her particularly hard, but he was persistent about it. I'm not sure that comes under distancing, because there was plenty of distrust aimed at her from other directions as well.

I already stated I didn't put too much faith into mafia's past actions, so the kirsche point was not as strong as the other ones.

On another front, my result from targeting Scorri on N2. I am, or rather was (ability decayed on second use, so I'm booted down to vanilla) a Tracker. First night I targeted Kirsche, figuring it was better to go for a lower profile player who was nonetheless ringing some alarm bells, and got a negative result. N2 saw me target Scorri in an attempt to get some indication either way for what side she's on. It was another 'nada' result. While I did think that meant Scorri may have been Town, now I'm not so sure. Mafia have vanillas as well, and there are passive abilities to take into account as well. Not to mention Kirsche gave the same result, which only tells me he didn't steal Poly's role block that night. So, that doesn't really clear anything up.

It's also possible that the scum team has a ninja. Think about this, why would town be untrackable? That relies under the assumption that scum knew to block you of all people.

It does tell me the role blocker is STILL OUT THERE! (Considering SB got blocked on N1, after Poly's lynch.) I can't really see a particular preference amongst the surviving players on attacking SB during D1, apart from Refa's last post (of D1) which seemed to be dismantling SB's recent posts to the exclusion of the rest of the game. He was on a time limit at the time and probably working on priority basis, but it could have meant something. Either that, or our mystery blocker just went on less mainstream targets as I was doing.

While that is possible, it is not necessarily the case (read, ninja theory above). Also, I'm not sure what scum intent you're reading from my last post on SB, care to elaborate? Or are you reading any at all, you uh, weren't very specific.

.

...And then she pops in to prove me wrong. (For that matter, I've been repeatedly on Bear's case for laziness) She's also spot on about Elieson claiming weak watcher survivor over in Fakeclaim. Could be that Bear was assigned that role, but that would be one heck of a coincidence. I'm still not convinced there's conclusive evidence to call her scum, just that part of my 'Town' reasoning was flawed (again).

Now she has two full length posts defending herself. Brilliant. Anyways, the rest of your analysis makes no sense, because Elieson's claim was a facetious reference to a past game, not a recurring pattern.

But, hmm, given the points others have raised on Refa, even I'm starting to wonder. I don't think I've ever got a conclusive reason from him why I'm considered Town. Quietly the Cop? Or Mafia trying to keep the idiot in as long as possible? (I wonder why I just remembered a certain episode of Doctor Who. The one imitating the Weakest Link.)

I don't believe I've played particularly incompetently before. :\

...Obviously this assumes SB was telling the truth when he said he'd been blocked.

Aha! See, if SB was blocked, how could you get blocked at the same time? Definitely suspecting a scum ninja...

[scorri]

... Where did you get that he was blocked? He just said that he didn't get a result. Unsurprisingly, he got no result on me since I didn't go anywhere last night.

[Refa]

On another front, my result from targeting Scorri on N2. I am, or rather was (ability decayed on second use, so I'm booted down to vanilla) a Tracker. First night I targeted Kirsche, figuring it was better to go for a lower profile player who was nonetheless ringing some alarm bells, and got a negative result. N2 saw me target Scorri in an attempt to get some indication either way for what side she's on. It was another 'nada' result. While I did think that meant Scorri may have been Town, now I'm not so sure. Mafia have vanillas as well, and there are passive abilities to take into account as well. Not to mention Kirsche gave the same result, which only tells me he didn't steal Poly's role block that night. So, that doesn't really clear anything up.

It does tell me the role blocker is STILL OUT THERE! (Considering SB got blocked on N1, after Poly's lynch.) I can't really see a particular preference amongst the surviving players on attacking SB during D1, apart from Refa's last post (of D1) which seemed to be dismantling SB's recent posts to the exclusion of the rest of the game. He was on a time limit at the time and probably working on priority basis, but it could have meant something. Either that, or our mystery blocker just went on less mainstream targets as I was doing.

He's insinuating that his result from targeting you on N2 was due to a blocked action.

[Bard]

So you tell me: How has scorri helped town in the slightest?

Why should I need to defend scorri? Just because your scumhunting tactics are awful doesn't mean I'm supposed to defend scorri. This further makes me want you lynched, though: Now the argument becomes "scorri is Scum, prove otherwise", when the base assumption should not be to look for Towniness but for Scumminess. This for example is adorable:

You have given me no reason to believe that scorri is town myself.

But demonstrates a lack of care to actually convince the rest of us of your case. I mean, you're already on my bad side for ignoring all I posted about you, that you now try to push a case hurriedly based on inferrings made from other people's posts and the base assumption that the target is Scum only furthers the idea that you're utterly incapable of actually pointing out scummy actions others have taken.

I've been pretty clear about my profile of Scum: They have difficulty building genuine cases on people because they don't have the paranoia Town do and know their cases to be false. That you fit this profile to a T means that unless something absurd happens, you're the one I want lynched today.

[Refa]

Also rereading that, my last post didn't even attack SB. :\ I had him at leaning town at the end of it.

[scorri]

Nope, he's not. He's insinuating that since kirsche didn't go anywhere N1, there was no way he could have blocked SB.

[Refa]

Nope, he's not. He's insinuating that since kirsche didn't go anywhere N1, there was no way he could have blocked SB.

Looking back at his post, I'm pretty sure your interpretation of this is right. Sorry for misrepping your arguments, WW. Regardless, it's more than possible that scum does indeed have a ninja, and that kirsche did roleblock SB yesterday.

Why should I need to defend scorri? Just because your scumhunting tactics are awful doesn't mean I'm supposed to defend scorri. This further makes me want you lynched, though: Now the argument becomes "scorri is Scum, prove otherwise", when the base assumption should not be to look for Towniness but for Scumminess. This for example is adorable:

I've already stated I've seen no towniness, but I suppose you conveniently ignored that.

But demonstrates a lack of care to actually convince the rest of us of your case. I mean, you're already on my bad side for ignoring all I posted about you, that you now try to push a case hurriedly based on inferrings made from other people's posts and the base assumption that the target is Scum only furthers the idea that you're utterly incapable of actually pointing out scummy actions others have taken.

Because only scum would...rather scumhunt (whether you feel my scumhunting is quality or not is one thing; the fact that I'm doing it is another) than care about their own lynch? What kind of awful frawgic is this?

[scorri]

Looking back at his post, I'm pretty sure your interpretation of this is right. Sorry for misrepping your arguments, WW. Regardless, it's more than possible that scum does indeed have a ninja, and that kirsche did roleblock SB yesterday.

... You mean kirsche, the one who's flip we've seen that had absolutely nothing to do with a ninja in it? Now you're just stretching. Seriously. Sometimes the correct explanation is the simplest one. Scum has a hook, so kirsche didn't do anything n1. Your idea would require scum to have a role that has the ability to grant someone else the ability to be a ninja which seems kinda ridiculous and is major rolespec and isn't really helping anything.

[scorri]

Also, there's a difference between scumhunting instead of always defending yourself and completely ignoring someone's case on you. You need to defend yourself at least some of the time. Otherwise you'll just end up getting mislynched.

[scorri]

VOTALS:

Shin (1): SB
Elieson (1):Wayward Winds

Refa (2): Bard, Scorri

Bard (1): Elie

scorri (1): Refa
Not voting: Shin

Shin: Why aren't you voting?

[Refa]

... You mean kirsche, the one who's flip we've seen that had absolutely nothing to do with a ninja in it? Now you're just stretching. Seriously. Sometimes the correct explanation is the simplest one. Scum has a hook, so kirsche didn't do anything n1. Your idea would require scum to have a role that has the ability to grant someone else the ability to be a ninja which seems kinda ridiculous and is major rolespec and isn't really helping anything.

Your explanation requires kirsche not to make use of his Gravedigger ability, when there is no reason that he shouldn't. In addition, it expects us to believe that kirsche did nothing on N1 and you did nothing on N2 (which guarantees us that you're a vanilla townie at best, which isn't much of a guarantee at all). I agree that simple solutions make sense, however I fail to see what's so much simpler about mafia having a roleblock on their team and managing to target the right person instead of mafia having a Sneak on their team and just making use of that ability every night so far.

Also, there's a difference between scumhunting instead of always defending yourself and completely ignoring someone's case on you. You need to defend yourself at least some of the time. Otherwise you'll just end up getting mislynched.

But where's the scum intent in that? At best, it's a null read.