Etrian Odyssey 2 Mafia - Game Over

[Zkirsche]

RD's recent explanation was what I voted him for.

Congrats, you have found deliberate mistake #1, where I intentially made it look like I thought that Boron's previous post from BBM's vote was her vote post.

With this obviously-intentional mistake amended, must I ask why you were/are voting RD for essentially just having poor logic? Surely there's plenty of that in the thread already (see my eclipse case) along with a lot of other stuff.

eclipse > RD > BBM

[BBM]

At the time of the vote, the only discussion was about Shin, which, whatever you say, didn't interest me as far as suspicions go. All it told me was that Fleur and to a lesser extent Green, were being really tryhard. I also didn't find Refa suspicious after the initial explanation, so didn't feel like keeping my vote there. RD was better than anything else at that point. And I dislike switching votes without hearing a response from the person I originally voted for, which is why my vote is still there.

Kirsche, if SB and Xinny were making bad cases on newbs, is that suspicious or not? You didn't include them in your list of scumlist, but then what was the reason behind pointing those out?

Xinny, why is Green Poet worse than the other people you call out in your posts? Also, why are you dismissing a lack of confidence as a valid defence? Not biting on opportunities because you're unsure is the definition of lack of confidence. Yes, it can be an excuse for scum, but it can also be an excuse for new players, and I don't actually see an attempt on your part to distinguish between the two.

Also I'm really mad and annoyed at myself because of irl stuff so I might not post for a while.

[Radiant Dragon]

Neither do I see Shin as being eager to start a Refa wagon, especially seeing as how he's the first person to actually vote Refa. Wouldn't the people who voted Refa after Shin be the ones trying to start a wagon?

Reading comprehension fail on my part. I mixed up the order of Shin and BBM's posts. I wanted to apply some pressure on someone get more discussion happening, and to me his post seemed like he was just trying to pile votes on without having to give any legitimate reasoning. Unfortunately, my line of reasoning was flawed, so I'll ##Unvote.

Fleur seems a little suspicious to me. She's being a bit too defensive, seems to be jumping around agreeing with what others have said and I don't like her repeated posting of her 'scum reads'. However, her moving off of the larger RD bandwagon for the smaller eclipse one seems odd for scum. I don't think people's reads on eclipse are particularly justified (I'm getting a null read on eclipse at the moment), but effort points.

Something that stuck out to me while re-reading the topic:

##Vote: eclipse

Last post was kind of a non-post imo, it said a lot but just defended Refa from early votes but didn't vote for anyone who you criticized, and you seem to be able to call BBM and possibly Shin out as scummy for it, but don't.

Speaking of Refa, I don't understand the "I think Refa is scum because he didn't do X" comments, it's attacking him for being able to do something, rather than something he's actually done, and leaving your options open at such an early stage in the game isn't out of the ordinary.

He seems to be voting eclipse for a similar reason that he's defending Refa. Considering eclipse's post was pretty early into RVS and her RVS vote had not (and still has not) posted since confirming, I see no reason for her to move her vote or start calling people scumming for the Shin/Flan/Refa debacle.

##Vote: Shark Bait for now.

The speculation of the Loved/Hated modifiers is not getting us anywhere unless someone claims, so let's drop that until then and focus on more productive conversation.

Wen and Scorri need to start contributing. Elieson too, although I know he's going through RL stuff.

[Radiant Dragon]

Considering eclipse's post was pretty early into RVS and her RVS vote had not (and still has not) posted since confirming, I see no reason for her to move her vote or start calling people scumming for the Shin/Flan/Refa debacle.

Rather, eclipse's post was pretty early into the phase and it was still RVS.

[Zkirsche]

Kirsche, if SB and Xinny were making bad cases on newbs, is that suspicious or not? You didn't include them in your list of scumlist, but then what was the reason behind pointing those out?

It depends on what they do next. Having bad logic by itself isn't scummy, but sticking to bad logic like a parasitic worm is.

[charlie_]

@kirsche, it was less of a case and more of a "this is weird, I'm gonna keep my eye on it" thing, and saying it helps as far as producing reactions.

RD's case on me is based on a generalisation, I didn't like the Refa attacks because they were saying he that he's in the position to do something they disliked, while my eclipse vote is based on the fact that she's done very little and just dismissed the points she actually has made. His Fleur read also seems like a big waffle to me, saying that she's scummy, but scum is unlikely to do something that she did.

[Refa]

Note: Didn't read Page 8 yet, am doing so right now, just wanted to have some content for people to comment on.

How was Shin's vote bad play, exactly, since it was still RVS when he made it? And how is opportunism worse than bad play in your eyes, especially when it concerns two veteran mafia players?

Shin's vote is a bad vote because it feels like a refuge in audacity (thanks Prims, I'll never get that trope out of my head now...). I call him out on being reactionary, so he responds by making an obviously reactionary vote on me. There's no way scum would be so obvious...right? Also his RVS shenanigans are giving me Semi-Precious vibes.

1) I think it can be opportunistic either way since it can give you a good reason to jump on Shin later on in the day.

Why is stating a suspicion of Shin opportunistic? It's like yeah, I find him suspicious for this, if he does more things that bother me I will probably vote him (spoiler alert, I am voting Shin in this post). How is this scummy, I don't get it.

##Vote: eclipse

Last post was kind of a non-post imo, it said a lot but just defended Refa from early votes but didn't vote for anyone who you criticized, and you seem to be able to call BBM and possibly Shin out as scummy for it, but don't.

I don't like this vote because you only seem to be considering things from one angle, which is that she's scum who is inexplicably unwilling to drop an early vote (is this something that scum even does nowadays). Just seems like lazy scumhunting.

Refa's logic seemed more like a vague guess rather than anything definite. Whilst it was probably to spark discussion, it's interesting that our colonel's made an association between Mr Puddingface and I already. Green's vote doesn't seem particularly baseless, I suppose it makes sense to vote on something rather than nothing, although I'm not convinced about the strength behind it.

This, on the other hand, is very, very bad. Feels a little hasty and shows up to me as a subtle defense of Flan.

Not my logic, bro.

Also I don't like his vote on RD. Yes, Shin starting a Refa bandwagon made no sense, but he doesn't even give any actual reasoning as to why RD's scummy. Just that he doesn't like RD's vote on him or something.

##Unvote

##Vote: Shin

Come at me, bro.

Green Poet strikes me as being hesitant, unusually so, mind you. Like her first vote on SB she says "No hard feelings." despite it being an RVS vote. Her vote on Shin is because...he interests her? Like do you think Shin is scum? Honestly I can see this hesitancy coming from newb town as well, so she's a null read for now.

Radiant Dragon is pretty laissez faire with his votes. His vote on Poly is because why not, but that can be chalked up to standard RVS shenanigans. Then he votes Shin to see where it goes. I feel worse about him than I do with Green Poet because he has played Mafia games in the past, although apparently that was the distant past, but still.

Also don't agree with eclipse's read on Fleur. Yes, she was sheeping to some extent (although like she said, she did bring up some points of her own), but town can sheep too. Just feels like a weak vote (I'm referring to eclipse's vote here).

[Refa]

also sheep me i am obvious town

i know prims said that as scum but i'm not prims

[Refa]

@Xinnidy

-My chainsaw defense comment was interpreting what Fleur said about Shin subtly defending Poly. It's not even worth pursuing unless either of them flips scum.

-I dunno, Shin's Poly vote felt kind of bad to me, but like I said, it could be RVS shenanigans, so I'm not really putting to much faith into that.

@kirsche

-Would sheep his eclipse case.

-Yes, ED1 is generally a reaction test, but by claiming it as a reaction test so openly (which is what RD did when he said "Let's see where this goes", noone is going to actually think that's a legit vote) you defeat the purpose entirely. I can see that as being bad play, but considering his prior experience it still bothers me.

@Radiant Dragon

-scorri is going through IRL stuff as well atm IIRC BTW FWIW FYI IMHF

Yes eclipse, I saw the end of that post, and I didn't like it. Earlier in it it looked like you had genuine problems with the play of some people wrt Refa votes so why you didn't consider them voteworthy confuses me. Your BBM case is also really weak to me, pushing someone for votehopping when it was 8~ hours into the game doesn't mean anything, and that was only his second vote in the game. You could've made an argument that it was scummy due to being lazy maybe (even though I feel like it's just null laziness, and that scum would be trying harder) but just calling it a votehop is really weak imo.

OK, so you're finding eclipse suspicious because she's not voting on her cases and because her cases are bad. Why would you expect her to vote on her cases if you think they're bad?

Speaking of Refa, I don't understand the "I think Refa is scum because he didn't do X" comments, it's attacking him for being able to do something, rather than something he's actually done, and leaving your options open at such an early stage in the game isn't out of the ordinary. On the other hand, I don't like his early attacks on Shin/Poly, they seemed really forced and reminded me of his Prims vote early in the game, like he felt obligated to get some sort of content out to look like he was contributing.

I feel like Fleur is just jumping all over the place and basically whenever someone else comes up with a case they seem to go "oh, I agree, that's definitely scummy!" and replaces her old suspicion with it pretty quickly. Keeping my eye on her for now.

Wait, who said that? I think I missed it (Never mind, you explained it later, good point, defended obvious town blabla). Also my Prims early vote in FiM didn't even have any reasoning behind it until someone asked me to explain (multiple people IIRC), and I just said I was sheeping BBM's vote.

Agree that Fleur's jumping all over the place, don't really think it's scummy though. Or even bad play, really, just seems kind of weird. Like I can see scum not holding strong conviction to their votes but in her case I can see a logical progression of sorts to her votes, so it doesn't upset me.

[Refa]

Lynch Priority:

Shin > eclipse > Radiant Dragon > The Majority > kirsche > Fleur > Me

[charlie_]

Refa: how would you expect town!Shin to react to such a weak vote on him? I don't see what's wrong with that reaction honestly (and I don't know where you got the semi-precious vibes from?) And my point on eclipse is more the fact she hasn't done much at all, the not voting is just part of it.

I can agree with the RD nulltell part of your post though.

Pedit: actually.

Also I don't like his vote on RD. Yes, Shin starting a Refa bandwagon made no sense, but he doesn't even give any actual reasoning as to why RD's scummy. Just that he doesn't like RD's vote on him or something.

-Yes, ED1 is generally a reaction test, but by claiming it as a reaction test so openly (which is what RD did when he said "Let's see where this goes", noone is going to actually think that's a legit vote) you defeat the purpose entirely. I can see that as being bad play, but considering his prior experience it still bothers me.

Aren't these contradictory?

CUT AGAIN

STOP

Why is Fleur a townread? The way you talk about her is more like a nullread.

[Refa]

Refa: how would you expect town!Shin to react to such a weak vote on him? I don't see what's wrong with that reaction honestly (and I don't know where you got the semi-precious vibes from?) And my point on eclipse is more the fact she hasn't done much at all, the not voting is just part of it.

I'm talking about his vote on me, not Polydeuces.

Shin spent a lot of words explaining his RD read, so it didn't come off as a reaction test to me.

Really? I thought I made it obvious why Fleur was a townread. Also in addition to what I said, I also picked up something from her posts that makes me think she's likely not scum. Not disclosing what it is since it's not going to help town anyways.

[Refa]

Also you should really respond to my questions about your eclipse case.

[charlie_]

I'm talking about that vote too. All it was was an RVS joke, so I'm not sure why you're so interested in it. And I wasn't talking about any reaction test, I was talking about how he responded to that same point.

I did explain my eclipse read. Look harder.

[Refa]

wait you did reply to my eclipse points fuck me

[charlie_]

gg

[charlie_]

Wait, who said that? I think I missed it (Never mind, you explained it later, good point, defended obvious town blabla). Also my Prims early vote in FiM didn't even have any reasoning behind it until someone asked me to explain (multiple people IIRC), and I just said I was sheeping BBM's vote.

was referring to stuff like this

I think that Refa stood to be in a position where she could easily jump into voting Flan or removing her vote from him easily, which I do not like.

[Refa]

I'm talking about that vote too. All it was was an RVS joke, so I'm not sure why you're so interested in it. And I wasn't talking about any reaction test, I was talking about how he responded to that same point.

OK, let's see Shin's post.

However, RD seemed to want to take it to a whole new level, actually giving my silliness some sort of credibility! It looks like it's trying to capitalise on the vote than was already on me to get something going. "See where this goes" is a pretty bad reason, maybe I'll be going on holiday to Hull? Just kidding, Hull's a horrible place! The late reason given because "rusty" was pretty bad, I was the first to vote Refa and everyone had established that it wasn't a bandwagon - which he made no reference of at all before

TLDR: RD pulls a vote out of nowhere without justification, only provides a reason when asked and said reason was clearly not the case. Some other people are a little scummy too.

##unvote

##Vote: Radiant Dragon

He votes RD for pulling a vote out of nowhere without justification. My issue with RD isn't this (because if he did have no justification, I could see it being a reaction test) but rather the justification that he used made it rather obvious what his intent was and is bad play, could be scummy. Like yeah, I agree with Shin on a scumread, but that doesn't really prohibit me from finding Shin scummier than RD.

Also his comment of some other people are a little scummy too just strikes me as really lazy. Who are these other people? Why didn't you actually say anything about them instead of making a one off comment?

[charlie_]

##Unvote

##Vote: Refa

I'll show you reactionary!

THIS is the one I'm talking about.

[Refa]

Wait, I think I accidentally deleted a part of my first post out.

So out of the people who haven't been all that active, Boron, Shinori, scorri, BBM, and Elieson all have some kind of IRL reason, which kind of sucks but what are you going to do. They should post more whenever it's possible, but that's obvious.

Someone should vig Kopfjager if he hasn't posted by today's end, holy shit he hasn't even done anything since confirmation.

Would like to see more posts from Polydeuces, Shin, Green Poet, Radiant Dragon, eclipse, and Kopfjager, everyone else is fine really.

[Refa]

THIS is the one I'm talking about.

Referring to the second point (" And I wasn't talking about any reaction test, I was talking about how he responded to that same point."), not the RVS post. I concede that may have been a joke (already stated my thoughts on it), that's not really the main reason I'm voting Shin.

[charlie_]

nobody wants to interrupt the SB and Refa show, obviously

[Radiant Dragon]

RD's case on me is based on a generalisation, I didn't like the Refa attacks because they were saying he that he's in the position to do something they disliked, while my eclipse vote is based on the fact that she's done very little and just dismissed the points she actually has made. His Fleur read also seems like a big waffle to me, saying that she's scummy, but scum is unlikely to do something that she did.

I don't see how eclipse has dismissed any of her own points (unless that's not what you meant with the bolded statement?), although I do agree it would be nice to see a little more from her. There are people who have done less than her however, and being relatively quiet early in NOC is simply part of eclipse's playstyle (or at least it was two-and-a-half years ago).

As for Fleur I am getting a 'scum trying to hard to be proactive town' vibe from her, but that could be just because she's inexperienced. Perhaps that's why she switched votes? I'm not sure, but I wanted to give people another topic of discussion, so I went ahead and posted my thoughts.

Agree that Fleur's jumping all over the place, don't really think it's scummy though. Or even bad play, really, just seems kind of weird. Like I can see scum not holding strong conviction to their votes but in her case I can see a logical progression of sorts to her votes, so it doesn't upset me.

Well, she votes for me, then Shark Bait votes for eclipse, at which point she ISO's eclipse and decides she's more suspicious than me and votes her for 'voteparking' when eclipse said (in a post Fleur quoted) that no one had done anything scummy enough to warrant her vote. It was fairly obvious that she was simply waiting for Wen to get on before moving her vote (although she moved it later).

Radiant Dragon is pretty laissez faire with his votes. His vote on Poly is because why not, but that can be chalked up to standard RVS shenanigans. Then he votes Shin to see where it goes. I feel worse about him than I do with Green Poet because he has played Mafia games in the past, although apparently that was the distant past, but still.

My vote on Flan was indeed RVS shenanigans, and my Shin vote was due to a misremembering of the order of events (I thought Shin was the second to vote for you). My vote is currently on Shark Bait because I don't quite understand his train of thought, nor do I like the interaction between him and Fleur a few pages back, which I'll post my thoughts on here in a sec.

[Radiant Dragon]

To be fair, I only said it seemed like only a subtle defense. As Refa said, this is not something to be concerned about until or if Flan flips.

I think that Refa stood to be in a position where she could easily jump into voting Flan or removing her vote from him easily, which I do not like.

Well, I agree with your point about Radiant Dragon. More because he had mentioned that it is fine to move on quickly from RVS posts. His sudden change of votes onto Shin without much explanation and with only a:

feels slightly hypocritical to me. Feels like an RVS or meaningless vote with the excuse of a "Moving on from RVS" to votepark onto Shin.

##Unvote

##Vote: Radiant Dragon

Noting that Refa had time to collect information about and post vote totals but did not address several of the new points I raised about her in the thread.

EDIT (because of Post Preview): @Sangyul: I don't think anyone made any points about Shin starting a vote wagon on Refa at all. Where did you get that?

##Vote: eclipse

Last post was kind of a non-post imo, it said a lot but just defended Refa from early votes but didn't vote for anyone who you criticized, and you seem to be able to call BBM and possibly Shin out as scummy for it, but don't.

On another note, I'm sick atm so my activity might not be great.

ISOing eclipse:

#78: RVS vote.

#87: Unrelated content and another RVS vote.

#104: Questions me a little over my Refa vote. Proceeds on to display a dislike of the votes on Refa but does not want to pursue anything. Makes a list of player names and nicknames (that makes his post seem longer than the actual game-related content) before deciding not to move his vote at all.

#107: Proceeds to post only a link in response to Flan that has no relevance to the game.

I find it suspicious that you have made four posts so far and not posted much actual content or tried to follow up much of what you dislike happening in the game.

@Shark Bait: I think you missed eclipse's last post.

##Unvote

##Vote: eclipse

Same case as with Radiant Dragon, I want to see more actual content and less voteparking since it seems like you're willing to votepark on Kopfjager than to follow up on your other cases.

This is the interaction I was talking about. Is it just me, or does this look a bit like buddying? There is no real reason for her to think I'm any less scummy than I was when she initially voted for me, but apparently eclipse not having posted a sufficient amount of content in her four posts (two of which were during RVS) is more worthy of a vote all of a sudden?

Fleur, what was your train of thought here?

[Green Poet]

These posts contradict themselves though, going from assuming the shin post was shenanigans to not being shenanigans. I can buy the lack of confidence from general attitude, but you should have used that to press shin some questions --if it interests you, build up on it. You also went from questioning Refa's point to embracing it for this without giving much of an explanation, other than your lack of confidence in reads.

Vote: Green Poet

Confidence shmofidence. While I can understand the struggles of being new to the game, I think you had some opportunities close to you that you didn't bite, and chose to defend by lack of confidence instead. Which can be an easy way out of most arguments.

Yes, my posts do contradict each other, as they weren't presented at the same time. I reread after Fleur suggested that Shin could be defending Flan, and found that to be a likelier explanation than what I had at first. As I've been saying, I have no meta knowledge, so my initial impressions and vote were spontaneous, and I've been trying to form more substantial reads since then.

Really, it seems that your read of me comes down to whether or not my new-player disposition and hesitancy is legitimate or scummy, which is a rather tenuous judgment, considering my lack of meta to begin with (hopefully I'm using that term right).

Looks like I should address this as well:

Green Poet strikes me as being hesitant, unusually so, mind you. Like her first vote on SB she says "No hard feelings." despite it being an RVS vote. Her vote on Shin is because...he interests her? Like do you think Shin is scum? Honestly I can see this hesitancy coming from newb town as well, so she's a null read for now.

Sure, I can see why someone might say "No hard feelings" when voting to their scumbuddies. But I'd done so just to establish that I didn't mean SB any ill intent, since I'm unfamiliar with everyone here, and would rather start on pleasant terms. Again, whether or not you believe this depends on how much you buy that I'm just a newbish town player, which many others seem to have accepted already.

As for Shin - yes, he seemed scummy to me. He deliberately voteswitched to Refa knowing that Refa had called him out with the first openly serious post, and, recognizing this, it doesn't make much sense to me to call this a product of his own "silliness." It makes sense for town to drop the jokes once someone starts accusing you for real.

I'm also somewhat suspicious of Shin's most recent post. I don't believe he was trying to start a wagon on Refa, but his RD vote seems unwarranted to me. RD's reasoning was more or less the same as mine. I'll keep my vote on Shin.

As for everyone else - I'm inclined to believe that Fleur is town. Her frequent posting, and original thoughts that I find fairly reasonable, makes me feel that it's unlikely she's holding back any leads. I think eclipse's met-based read of her is off, and a little forced, so I'm curious about that as well. kirsche puts it better than I, at any rate.

At the moment:

Shin > eclipse >>>>>>> Flan