AM/PM 2 Mafia - GAME OVER

[Makaze]

What is Blitz's role?

[Makaze]

Want your roleclaim too, LG...

[Terrador]

Doing some reading, trying to crack this game--after reading BBM, his interactions with Bluedoom lead me to think he's pretty much conftown (has this been said already? idk), Junko broke Ascetic and was getting lined up after Elie (his scumbuddy)--I wouldn't expect BBM to line up a double bus at all. And Poly has claimed vig with no CC in a game where what, literally every night player can contact day? And most (if not all?) day can contact night? (Not ruling out literal day vanilla/night players that can't talk to day, iirc at least the former existed in AM/PM1). So that's three cleared players out of five night folks, with a living vig.

Therefore, we really, really should lynch between Mancer and Blitz today, regardless of what your reads are. It's a very clear 1v1.

I'm personally thinking Blitz, obviously--I'm going back through ISO. Mancer townslips hard early N0, numbers+2courier makes sense to me, some of his play doesn't quite make sense, but... I'm really failing to see scum intent? He's clearly committing to reads. Tryharding like hell/10 compared to Blitz's pretty dang obvious coast attempt.

---

That said: I do think we had a concerted bus on Elie. Think about it--BBM was casing him before there was a mature lynch (and, tbqh, I still think Elie!D2 was lucky on our part or orchestrated by scum). Blitz scumread Elie early (yeah, associative reads before flip, suck it), and sure, Straw didn't jump on it, but there's always a token there. He gets lynched while active lurking the entire game, with announcement, and fails to defend himself or case anybody else. Elie was bussed. I would hazard that the remaining dayscum was on the Elie wagon because of this. That, plus a tone feeling I've had all game, is gonna put Shinori pretty firmly in the "town" category for me right now. Makaze has been feeling more town lately, plus he wasn't on that wagon, plus he's all but rolecleared, so I'm going to punt him into "town" as well.

That leaves three potential dayscum, FMPOV: Refa, Snike, Lord Gaius. And I wanna talk about the one that's feeling the likeliest of the three to me right now.

Refa: First things first, something that jumps out to me: saying somebody has a clear scumtell but "eh, still seems town" (re: BBM, Day 1 big content post) is pretty classic association with a scumbuddy. He jumps between three town wagons Day 1. I dunno, but I would think he's good enough that at least one of those would be a scum wagon? Especially since all three had a real chance of being lynched D1, so I wouldn't put someone not named Elie on a bus for no reason. He claims he's not a weak day role D1--that's null, but worth keeping track of anyway.

The big, bad tell I see out of Day 1 is lynch apathy. Scum really, really don't care that much whom they lynch, generally. Day 1, all that really matters is that someone town gets lynched, and no scum rek themselves early on. He votes, Eury, then Makaze, then Eury, then Bizz, then SB, then Eury, then Prims, then SB, then Prims, then Eury. This in vacuum wouldn't be scummy, but I really get the sense that he just... doesn't care who gets lynched.

He calls Elie lurkscum for no really substantiated reason Day 2, nor even citing whom he's sheeping. Pretty consistent with an attempted bus, no? Sure, he's willing to make other lynches, but... when it counts, he's supporting this lynch. Just hops on the wagon, never really casing Elie. He's lurkscum for active lurking, but ANY sane active lurker would make some post at all, let alone an announcement; Elie was around a lot near deadline. And I believe Refa would know this--again, ridin' the bus.

---

TL;DR, ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY READ THIS SHIT:

-Elie was bussed. He was active lurking WAY too hard for that to be unintentional, and BBM was casing him long before there WAS a case.

-Junko and Poly are confirmed town by role, and his interactions with Marth run exactly opposite to archetypal scum x scum interaction (scum says buddy looks a bit scummy, feels better about them later in the game as numbers dwindle)

-We therefore have a 1v1 between Blitz and Mancer, and need to vote between them today.

-Among dayscum, given that Elie was bussed (bold read, I know, but it lines up very much), Shinori and Makaze (the former has felt town to me all game, the latter has been all but rolecleared recently) make no sense as scum

-Refa makes the most sense as dayscum to me, over still-uncleared Snike and Lord Gaius

---

Fucking Voted To Hell: Blitz

[Refa]

lol nice try

[ZoesMad]

Claiming Vanilla. BBM is the person in my Role PM, Don't have time for anything else until later today.

[Makaze]

Claiming Vanilla. BBM is the person in my Role PM, Don't have time for anything else until later today.

What does that mean? You have no abilities at all?

[Makaze]

@Terrador: Snike and Blitz have been ~cleared by decision theory in my mind. What do you make of #700 on Blitz and #732 for Snike?

[ZoesMad]

What does that mean? You have no abilities at all?

Nothing but my 2 couriers and 1 announcement.

[Makaze]

Someone please get Blitz's full role while I'm gone. His hiding it, or just not knowing it, is bothering me.

[Refa]

Blitz told me he was just 2 courier 2 announcer. That's why he figured Poly was scum, because he said that day people with that role had one less announcement in exchange for their vote (so Poly claiming 2 courier 1 announcer would be a fakeclaim) FWIW.

[Makaze]

I think that clears up everything.

Terrador or Lord Gaius must be the remaining scum. Terrador seems more likely. Has your opinion of him changed, Refa?

[Refa]

Yeah, but it might just be bias because of him casing me? Also I'm not sure if he'd be so apathetic to the lynch of his scumbuddy Mancer (if Terra is scum, it'd probably be w/Bluedoom), so I don't know what to think there (still think the Mancer lynch is the best option because of Bluedoom's interactions w/BBM...which I haven't actually reread yet, but also because even if Mancer is town Shinori can cop someone). LG is probably town over Terra though, but it'd be cool if he could make one more content post!

[Makaze]

Have to go to an interview soon. Will be back later today.

Remaining:

Day Players

1. Lord Gaius - 2 Couriers, 1 Announcement

8. Terrador - Claimed 2 Announcements and that's all.

Night Players

6. Bluedoom - Other swapper.

7. Mancer - Gets information every mislynch. First time got numbers.

[Snike]

On mobile so this will be short. We lynch Mancer then see flip. If town vig blitz and inspect terrador/LG. else vig Terrador/ LG and lynch other next day for probable win. Refa is decision theory clear imo and marth is pseudo role cleared due to setup ie persuader +2 dayscum + vote enable seems like too much vote control 4 scum.

[Snike]

Shinori is clear bc BBM fakeclaimed tracker instead of cop. This indicates that there is not a cop safeclaim.

Bbl

[Terrador]

...yeah, neither one of those is a clear, Makaze.

Blitz: could just as easily fish for a mislynch when he's claiming Poly is lying. Frankly, can none of you see the potential for a town PR to inflate their announcements/couriers to evade detection? Blitz could just as easily be pushing for a lynch-all-liars lynch on Poly. He is in no way clear by outing a vig's lie; sure, he could just kill Poly as scum, but scum 1) need to talk in-thread, and therefore 2) don't always play perfectly. That isn't a clear.

re: Snike: Suggesting taking the bullet yourself is... pretty stupid, regardless, you should be pointing vig towards town. That said, it only demonstrates as much town intent as he can reasonably expect Poly to shoot him because of what he said; which is to say, unless you expect him to actually get shot for it (I sure wouldn't shoot someone because they recommended themselves for it), it doesn't really mean anything. Even then, it would be very, very possible to be trying to get shot on the night they're killing Poly so that his scumbuddy (cough Blitz) lives. I'm not going SNIKESCUM CONFIRMED here, but he sure as hell isn't clean from this post.

Also, calling for a doctor on Refa is in no way counterproductive as scum. Knowing whom the doc, if extant, is targeting is really helpful, since you can just shoot ~anyone else~.

[Terrador]

Further, @Makaze, whom did you persuade today?

[Terrador]

Also, wow, I forgot the tags on my vote, better get that down

##Vote: Blitz

[Terrador]

Unofficial Votals:

Mancer (4): Refa, Makaze, Snike, Shinori

Snike (2): Bluedoom, Lord Gaius

Blitz (1): Terrador

---

Saw on re-reading the thread that Shinori was persuaded to vote Mancer. Question withdrawn, Makaze.

---

#774 really bugs me. Blitz is just rambling about setup speculation and claiming Marth and Gaius are scummy for misreading things (protip: being town doesn't mean you magically have three hours a day every day to give to the game, some folks are going to be rushed in some parts of the week/feeling drained and lethargic and not willing to make content, this is alignment-neutral as hell). The one person he actually says is consistently behaving in a scummy way in that announcement? Snike. Which isn't bad at all... except that Snike is at the bottom of his lynch priority. This is absolutely archetypal scummy behavior: not having lynch priority line up with the strength of your cases, and in particular casing buddies harder than you're reading them.

Potentially Snike > Refa as Blitz' scumbuddy? I would feel much more confident lynching either of them tomorrow than I would be lynching Lord Gaius.

[Makaze]

...yeah, neither one of those is a clear, Makaze.

Blitz: could just as easily fish for a mislynch when he's claiming Poly is lying. Frankly, can none of you see the potential for a town PR to inflate their announcements/couriers to evade detection? Blitz could just as easily be pushing for a lynch-all-liars lynch on Poly. He is in no way clear by outing a vig's lie; sure, he could just kill Poly as scum, but scum 1) need to talk in-thread, and therefore 2) don't always play perfectly. That isn't a clear.

re: Snike: Suggesting taking the bullet yourself is... pretty stupid, regardless, you should be pointing vig towards town. That said, it only demonstrates as much town intent as he can reasonably expect Poly to shoot him because of what he said; which is to say, unless you expect him to actually get shot for it (I sure wouldn't shoot someone because they recommended themselves for it), it doesn't really mean anything. Even then, it would be very, very possible to be trying to get shot on the night they're killing Poly so that his scumbuddy (cough Blitz) lives. I'm not going SNIKESCUM CONFIRMED here, but he sure as hell isn't clean from this post.

Also, calling for a doctor on Refa is in no way counterproductive as scum. Knowing whom the doc, if extant, is targeting is really helpful, since you can just shoot ~anyone else~.

Both of them are cleared for reasons you ignored: If they thought they knew who the vig was they would kill them right away. The vig has proven to be efficient.

Blitz thought Poly was lying about his role, was right, and did not kill him when lynch pressure failed. Therefore he must not be scum.

Snike had every reason to kill Refa if he thought he was the vig, and then Poly when he found out Poly was the vig, yet did not. Therefore he must not be scum.

To top it off, whoever killed SB most likely thought he was the vig. I can't think of anything that would clear them better than decision theory. It's even better than a cop's claim because you don't need to trust anyone's word.

[Sunwoo]

Stupid loudspeakers need to blow out again!

"Baldrick here,

don't feel like defending on anything other than all the players I have cased had been townreads for me and one that turned into a townread.

Terra is still lying IMO for claiming 2-shot-announcer with no PR. The vanilla format is 2-courierz+1-announcer for day. Should be lynched first and also clearly has a role. CLAIM YOUR TRUE-ROLE TERRADOR

@Terra, IF Refa is scum,

1)why didn't he tell Poly to shoot Mancer or Marth instead?

2)if I am scum with Elie, you-must-think I have stronger-PR than Elie, which only makes sense as roleblocker, so, why wouldn't Refa tell me to hook Poly?

also, why do you think SB was killed? also, most cases, scum skims more than town

Marth-#748#661. Why did you vanish?

Shinori-why would you vanish? Still think announcer+cop is too OP

Gaius-when is later?

like I said earlier, lynching the lying scum is better IMO

-Blitz"

[Snike]

Terrador is being disingenuous about my association with Poly. I only found out about poly being vigilante today phase-wise. I messaged him night 2 because iirc he asked for an explanation wrt Terrador. Here's the full message:

,

You can verify Sender by asking Junk what song he looked up. (Yobanashi deceive).

Here's your explanation: Talking about Blitz as 100% scum. I asked him about it and he ignored it over giving Elie an Appeal to Emotion defense. I said it might be a scumslip bc he hasn't claimed info.
relay some stuff.
-Was referring to my read on Gaius and Makaze, actually. Might've been from my role pm though. #WCproblems
-I agree with no cop scan on quote like Mancer said, not saying Mancer agreed.
-Makaze's reads are off but he is town, because his role is verified minus hax, and I /think/ scum would've had lynch control d2 otherwise.
-Why would I hesitate to go on blitz wagon if I were scum and knew elie was persuader? Especially when I scumread the /other/ persuader? I can be dumb but afaik I'm not that dumb.

Thank you.

The other reason I spent one of my messages was to see if he'd try to distort it (this was before Refa #2, and I thought he was scummy) so when he didn't relay it, I went over to Refa. but gave leniency because I'm aware 'relay some stuff' isn't exactly clear wording. Until today I had him as possibly scum through poe.

Also, wrt me trying to get shot for Blitz's sake, you're trying to insinuate that (since you think we're scum) I think that Blitz, PoE'd to a 1/1 with Mancer, can survive a 9/1 situation. Yeah you're grasping at straws.

I move that we prioritize terrador in reference to my previous posts a few hours ago.

[Refa]

I got a message from Blitz, will transcribe later (it's mostly what he said on thread). Snike, Marth can only vote enable once (he said on thread).

[Terrador]

@Snike: I derped on mentioning that that hypothetical was with you having a BPV. Would think that's obvious in-context here. And suggesting that you take the bullet being only even remotely establishing towncred to the degree that you can expect it to result in a shot still holds. I would absolutely rather be shot than have, say, Shinori be shot. But me saying that when my words don't influence the kill choice means absolutely fuckall. And I've been confident about Blitz because I am reading him that hard. Maybe it's not a literal 100%, but it's far and away the lynch I'm most confident in.

@Makaze: Let me address those two "clears". You say they knew who vig was? Well:

-Blitz: says Poly is lying about role, yes. But where in the world is it shown that he knows who Poly is before N2 is over? And you say scum should have been shooting for the vigilante--that's fair, it's exactly what I'd be doing as scum. But if I were scum, I (and anyone else who read AM/PM 1 or had the slightest suspicion that hosts balanced the game well) would be shooting into the night, where I had two scum members and two or so roles that are unlikely to have vigilante on top of them out of what, seven players at the time? And where the vig most likely is anyway?

-Snike: literally just admitted he didn't know who Poly is before toDay. Saying he would've killed Poly N2 is just downright silly.

These people are absolutely not clear. Still supporting Blitz over Mancer.

---

Also, I do not have another role. Fuck's sake, y'all don't think I'd have noticed the pattern? 2 announcement day vanilla has absolutely existed before in AMPM. Prims had 2 announcements, and yes, a role--but he was also a night player. Stop with the weak-ass setup speculation, Blitz.

[Terrador]

I got a message from Blitz, will transcribe later (it's mostly what he said on thread). Snike, Marth can only vote enable once (he said on thread).

By that you mean just him? I had the impression he was always capable of moving someone to the day. Yet nobody is missing from this phase, now that I think about it... scum!roleblock extant? It was apparently mandatory, since I sure as hell don't think Junko would pick me to move, admit that's his role (eventually), and not eventually out an intentional choice. Not that it really matters.