Refa Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Paraphrasing both of Poly's messages to me (the first was on D2, the second one was just an hour or two ago today). Snike also sent me a message earlier (on D2) that I didn't out because uh yeah, but it should prove that he's probably not scum First Message: -Claimed Strawman shot because he was townreading me. -Wanted me to try and direct the day talk towards vig targets (he wanted to shoot at least one more before getting killed. -Announced the number of shots that he had, which I'm not going to claim (since it won't help town in any way, but he can if he wants too). Second Message -Poly wanted me to out him as the vig, which I've done so (obviously) because he's tired of people casing him. -Snike and I basically summed up the Terrador case in a nutshell and Snike purposefully wanted Poly to confirm his identity with the song reference. -He was PoEing scum between Blitz/Terrador/Shinori. Almost policy shot Blitz and was going to go for some BIG PLAYS with a Shinori shot before going back to BBM (fun fact, I sent him two messages earlier that night asking him to shoot BBM/Blitz and to go through the whole fakeclaiming thing, but I later flipflopped on my BBM read with my announcement; it's a good thing Poly didn't decide to resend his action haha). -His fullclaim is Manix, X-shot vigilante w/2 courier messages. Snike's message (from D2): -Why are you crumbing vig so hard? Not sure if there's a doc in this setup, but regardless if scum has a roleblock then you're fucked. The pics were enough (uh...not sure what pics he's talking about but sure), but you should've asked about the vig targets through an announcement. -As for targets, firstly you should wait for a flip so that the night players can talk. Just because the day people have a consensus doesn't mean that I should be vigging on their discretion alone. -Junko is clear because his action blew a whole through Strawman's Ascetic. -Of the night people, I should shoot Blitz if he keeps flaking, otherwise Mancer/Poly. -Of the day people, I should shoot either Gaius or Makaze. I could also shoot Snike if I wanted. And since the game isn't role madness, he sees the # of deaths + vote roles to be questionable (uh...I have no idea what he meant then either). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makaze Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Thanks. Unprovable rolespec: Snike has some kind of BPV role. That's the second time that slot has said "you can kill me". Two different people? What's up with that? Intent spec: Killing a town doesn't help town, right? If you and someone else are on the block, you should do everything you can to get the other person lynched or vigged because you know you are town but you can't be so sure about the other person. If that logic isn't convincing, adding "you can kill me" is in conflict with telling you to wait for the flip. I can see changing your mind, but these appear in the same message. Either trying too hard to get killed or trying too hard not to get killed; neither are in town's interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makaze Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Just realized. If Blitz is in the clear, then Terrador's actions do look scummy. Gut feeling doesn't explain why he would clear Elieson and not Blitz. Fine with lynching Terrador too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snike Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Short post before I'm off to work (spoilers haven't read thread thoroughly): -I used song lyrics as code to verify my messages because getting smeared anonymously is lame. I have enough from d1 so that I don't have to put anymore in my posts now. -apparently strong scumreads are wrong and slight reads are right for me. GGGGGGG -Refa, you didn't send that announcement n1??? or should I shut up about that -I'm actually 4-message courier, similar to what SB was. This is why I'm ok with being shot and killed. This is also why I hammered after refa in the event of a vengeful. -Unless I'm holding the idiot ball, why would I nightkill SB? I scumread him and (as seen by messages to Refa) I thought refa was vig. Why wouldn't i aim at him? -wrt slight rolespec from message 1: We have 2 phase shifters, we have 2 persuaders, we have a vigilante, we have a mayor, and we have an amn. I don't think it's likely we'd have a role that gains powers on mislynches, since that strikes me as a vanilla role in the (so far) power role- infested night phase. That's why I don't buy Mancer's claim. More to come when I get home from work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluedoom Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Alright, I read the ISOs, so I'm gonna do this: ##Vote:Snike I feel like Terra advocating a Blitz lynch over Elie is understandable from a town perspective since Blitz had more content(and had the potential to have more during D1) than Elie yet he still found him scummy. Snike's Makaze case looks really bad, IMO, since he doesn't explain why scumreading Prims and SB is scummy? Also, what's bad about casing the silenced player? He felt like Terra's announcements were scummy, so why do you think Makaze's actions came from a scum intent? Also he spent a lot of the phase casing Mancer, but not voting him. IMO he had more reasons to be voting Mancer than Makaze, so it looks like he's throwing dirt for no reason. Oh, and what Rapier did is scummier than anything Terra has done. Shinori could also be scum since he has a scum meta of raging and then flaking. (From many mafia games ago, like in Battle City, he raged and tried to control town discussion, and he flakes a lot harder as scum. See: ITTD) If Snike's scum, Mancer can only be his buddy if they planned to get cred off of bussing each other(This is visible in cycle two, since Mancer's highlight content was defending against Snike), but I'd still prefer a Blitz lynch over Mancer as a safety net. If Terra's scum, then Mancer>Blitz because Blitz only makes sense as scum if he has a stronger role than Elie. But he doesn't seem to be playing like that. If Shinori is scum, I don't even know. However, I think he's more likely to flip scum than Terra. If Refa/Gaius are scum, go fuck yourself. If Makaze is scum, I will get myself modkilled. Snike>Shinori>Terrador Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluedoom Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Also it makes more sense for scum to gun for Makaze because they too had a persuader, and if Elie got lynched, it would make Makaze obvious town, so it makes sense to go after Makaze to buy time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluedoom Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Also, Refa, why do you think there are no more night scum? If there were 3 day scum at the start, then that would mean that after a mislynch, town would be at an *YLO variant at D2 if they mislynched, most likely. I mean sure, we have roles like vig/persuader/mayor maker but those have the potential to backfire too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluedoom Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 If Terra's scum, then Mancer>Blitz because Blitz only makes sense as scum if he has a stronger role than Elie. But he doesn't seem to be playing like that. Pardon me, I mean if ELIE had a stronger role than Blitz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluedoom Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 In which case Idk because I thought Blitz felt like he was playing like he had some stronger role or something with all the number speccing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Also, Refa, why do you think there are no more night scum? If there were 3 day scum at the start, then that would mean that after a mislynch, town would be at an *YLO variant at D2 if they mislynched, most likely. I mean sure, we have roles like vig/persuader/mayor maker but those have the potential to backfire too. It's more because I was reading everyone else in the night phase as town, but you're probably right and I'm just being dumb. Anyways, my scumreads for the day are Shinori > Terrador > Thinking I have more than two scumreads lol. Snike, I didn't send you any messages on N1 (uh, I'm pretty sure I sent a message to Terrador and BBM that night). Was townreading Mancer based on his claim, but if there is another scum in the night phase, it's most likely him (although Snike, he's not scummy for having a vanillaish role, moreso because his interactions with BBM are so forced; he scumreads everyone else who was scumreading him, but w/BBM he's just like "eh null"). Elsewhere we have "Blitz level townplay" Blitz, "Hi, I got tunneled by scum" Bluedoom, "Confirmed town" Junk, and "Confirmed town" Poly. Actually yeah, would rather get rid of the last night scum in case they have a roleblocker or something obnoxious like that. ##Vote: MancerNecro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Actually considering LG/Terra/Snike's positions in BBM's vig tier list, they're all probably town? I'm not going to support a lynch on any player who isn't Shinori or Mancer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Hey LG, how many announcements/couriers do you have? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 @Makaze If you have to persuade someone, persuade Shinori to vote himself or, barring that, me (it'd be really funny if that got me lynched, but it's moreso that I don't trust him + even if he's town, he likely won't make use of his vote anyways). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoesMad Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 @Refa I used my announcement but have both of my couriers available. Why do you ask? I'm at school so I can't post for a little while. Gonna be working on a Snike case, best lynch imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 This, really: Eury- 2 Courier 0 Announce Prims- 0 Courier 2 Announce SB-2 Courier 1 Announce Quote- 0 Courier 2 Announce Straw- 2 Courier 0 Announce Sara- 0 Courier 2 Announce BBM- 0 Courier 2 Announce LG- 2 Courier 1 Announce Shin- 2 Courier 1 Announce (?) Makaze- 0 Courier 2 Announce Refa- 2 Courier 1 Announce Terra- 0 Courier 2 Announce Snike- 4 Courier 0 Announce Blitz- 2 Courier 2 Announce Marth- 2 Courier 0 Announce Mancer- 2 Courier 0 Announce Junk- 2 Courier 0 Announce Poly 2 Courier 0 Announce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 ...I did not even hit enter, fuck you SF. Whatever. Basically I figure that one of the last scum has 2 courier shots and a role (probably a night role, because I can't see how any other day roles would work), and the other has 2 courier shots and an announce. Also Snike is town, no lyncherino until at least tomorrow (plus, it's BETTER to lynch scum in the night phase in case they have a Roleblocker). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refa Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Also Makaze, actually make Shinori vote Mancer instead (probably should have asked this the first time, but I'm dumb). Gonna stop spamposting now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoesMad Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 The reason I don't want to vote night is because they're all more townie than Snike to me. Junko is obvtown for breaking Strawman's ascetic that led to the vig. No scum in their right mind would break a teammate's protection. Marth is town because he was fighting BBM like the entire game. Poly because he's the vig. I really doubt anyone would lie about that, it's pretty much an instant lynch the next day if the real vig proves themselves which is really easy by targeting someone other than Poly said. Mancer is sitting above null right now, but not a true townread. After reading his ISO, he pointed out a lot of misrepping and faults in Snike's case on him that I agree with. His numbers seem very likely to be correct. Blitz's content has been much better since his Shinori vote, although he is more null at the moment. The lists post and his defense seemed pretty reasonable, I also think the questioning Poly stuff was very town-oriented. However, this is one of the night lynches I'd advocate the most, because we either get scum or if Blitz flips town make Terrador likely scum. PoE really. ##Vote: Snike Your case on Mancer, is to be blunt, bad. People dropped scumreads on Rapier's slot for no apparent reason. Rapier's D1 was incredibly ambiguous, and had next to no real content other than weakly picking at Makaze's arguments, even leaving margin for error there. This is definitely the scummiest slot in the game right now for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makaze Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Also Makaze, actually make Shinori vote Mancer instead (probably should have asked this the first time, but I'm dumb). Gonna stop spamposting now. I'm rereading for associatives on Mancer. I see mixed signals. My gut says you could be right, though... BBM-Mancer: [spoiler=BBM] @mancer- Why are you focusing so much on word choice? You're harping on the words without bothering to place them in context because it seems pretty clear to me that Eury finds you suspicious. More to the point, why are you getting so suspicious of someone not "scumhunting" like 3 hours into a N0? Firstly you're wrong because she is, and secondly, considering that Eury was your first suspicion, what scumhunting had you done prior to FoSing Eury that you could have expected her to do in your first post? ##FoS: Mancer thoughts from SB (sent via courier message; hyphenated points are SB's opinions and my own opinions are not hyphenated) -he doesn't think Mancer is scum atm cuz he thinks Mancer's defence against Junko is different from his scumplay, and although he disagrees with his Eury read he sees why Mancer has that opinion; null leaning town here I honestly can't remember how scum Mancer defends himself but his case on Eury was very typical of his scum meta; where he harps a great deal on word choice and takes things out of context to make cases (basically scum Mancer is town Grassbridger) -snip- This message came before Elie's last post so it's probably no longer valid. IMO Elie's case on Eury is okay enough but it's nothing similar at all to Mancer's case (which sucks and is scummy) so I'm not sure if Elie "would sheep" Mancer's case just because they come to the same conclusion on the same player or because he actually agrees with it. Additionally Mancer is one of the people who's developing into a general suspicion from a lot of people so the subtle defence by sheeping his post without actually defending him bugs me. I think overall I'm a little suspicious of Elie but less than Mancer. I read his posts again just now and I think he's overreacting to day phase people making spam announcements/courier messages on Night 0 COME ON BLITZ YOU USED TO PLAY WHEN PEOPLE TREATED NIGHT 0 AS A JOKE but I still think he's town. He should talk more about Mancer and Eury's posts though. I think Elie is suspicious; might have gotten lost in that post with SB's thoughts which ended up being a lot longer than I thought it was. I'm not as confident about it as Mancer though; would like to see Elie finish reading the thread. -snip- Refa agrees with my responses to SB, but he thinks that all the active posters are town and is also not scumreading Prims (message sent before Prims just posted). I'm not sure I get this; if you agree with my responses to SB then aren't you agreeing with my Elie suspicion? Also he would like Mancer to stop being such a big red herring (as in stop being scummy as town I think?). Also also that reminded me that SB also said that he was town/nullreading almost everyone too. I should clarify; Mancer not talking about Eury's actual content was in his first post expressing suspicion of her. In his latest post he does talk about her content but again he doesn't look at context in any way cuz like it's quite obvious she doesn't think Mancer is town so why would anyone interpret her post as saying the interactions are town infighting? And how is her finding both him and Marth both scummy at all vague and unconcrete I don't even get it. town: Blitz, Marth nulltown: Junko null: Prims, Eury, Poly scum: Mancer, Elie -snip- ITP is probably Shinori or Makaze; leaning Shinori. Refa and SB claimed other announcements/messages and the one which said they were publicly gay at the end is obviously Via so they can't be ITP. The one talking about N0 sounded like Rapier or Terrador; also the one who just sent an announcement scumreading Prims and Mancer is probably the other one of them. I don't think Gaius would yoloclaim that early either. Early claim is why I think Shinori but the tone in the one saying that they weren't Junko sounds not-him so idk could be Makaze. I can't remember how Strawman sounds so he's a wildcard that could technically sub in anywhere. Eury, what are your thoughts about Mancer and Marf? You started off the game talking about them but your summary at the end doesn't mention how their more recent posts have changed your opinion of them, and while your post has some bullets talking to Mancer, they seem more of a discussion or more about clarifying past things than actually saying what you feel about their Alignment. Mancer why didn't you out numbers on N0 if you had them at the beginning of the game? Mancer I don't get your Junko case. You talk about how you were his only scumread, and then he dropped you, so it makes sense then for him to have no scumreads? I think Mancer is improving. Also now that I think about it you never even said whether hypocrisy was scummy or not; also I'm not even pushing Mancer anymore. targeted Mancer and Elie on N0 and neither went anywhere [spoiler=Mancer] Don't like how BBM seems to be attacking me by saying that I was picking on wordplay because that was a misrepresentation of my case. My initial case pointed out on how Eury didn't seem to be clear in concluding whether she thought me or Bluedoom was scummier despite initially saying that she had gotten something out of the interactions between the two of us. I don't get why or how BBM is concluding that Shinori is the ITP? I've not seen Shinori post at all or anything. Or maybe it's just meta from guessing who made which announcement? @BBM: Still doesn't mean we should waste N0 discussion. Actually, I don't think we should waste any potential discussion time that we have at all..... Also, if it is really obvious that Eury found me scummier then I think it wouldn't be that hard for her to summarize her case and point an FOS at me or something. Can see your point about how she finds more problems with my posts though. -snip- BBM is null to me, I guess. I don't really agree with all of his opinions but I can see where he's coming from. Also, his early announcer claim leads me to think that he's trying to make sense of the game. Here's the playerlist and my opinions: Day: 1) Lord Gaius - Null 2) Shinori - Town 3) Makaze - Scum 4) SB - Town 5) Refa - Town 6) Quote - ITP 7) Strawman - Null 8) Terrador - Hasn't had a chance to post at all yet 9) Rapier - Likely Scum Explained my Makaze read earlier already. Rapier conclusion stems from POE and the fact that I'm not getting any scum vibes off of the other players. Lynch: Makaze > Levity > Rapier > Any other scum reads Night: 1) Elieson - Scum 2) BBM - Null 3) Blitz - Scum 4) Prims - Town 5) Bluedoom - Null - POE Scum 6) Junk - Likely Scum 7) Poly - Wake up please Also, I feel like Junko is only really trying to case Elieson because BBM pointed out that he should be scum reading Elieson. His read on Elieson feels pretty forced and vague like he doesn't actually want to conclude to finding Elieson scummy. If Elieson is scum, then I agree with BBM that Junko is most likely scum as well. Strawman-Mancer: [spoiler=Strawman] Bro its like the morning chill. IDK I don't think Blitz is that scummy of a choice to switch to day. Its hard to try and get a read out of that at this point. ftr I'm reading town Prims. Mancer just seems reactionary, not scummy. I don't have strong feelings on others. [spoiler=Mancer] Here's the playerlist and my opinions: Day: 1) Lord Gaius - Null 2) Shinori - Town 3) Makaze - Scum 4) SB - Town 5) Refa - Town 6) Quote - ITP 7) Strawman - Null 8) Terrador - Hasn't had a chance to post at all yet 9) Rapier - Likely Scum Explained my Makaze read earlier already. Rapier conclusion stems from POE and the fact that I'm not getting any scum vibes off of the other players. Lynch: Makaze > Levity > Rapier > Any other scum reads Night: 1) Elieson - Scum 2) BBM - Null 3) Blitz - Scum 4) Prims - Town 5) Bluedoom - Null - POE Scum 6) Junk - Likely Scum 7) Poly - Wake up please Not counting anything on Elieson because Elieson's only purpose to BBM and everyone else on his team was someone to bus to make them look good. Being on Elieson is a null tell and Elieson barely said two words about Mancer, not enough for a tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makaze Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I still think it's odd. There are a few things from BBM that don't make sense for a bus game. Also, if Mancer is scum then the numbers we got could be a lie, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makaze Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Mancer is the most likely nightscum, though. I can't argue with PoE. I'm fine with either lynch at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makaze Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 If Mancer is scum, then Snike is town. This is so annoying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makaze Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I say we lynch Mancer. If he flips scum then Terrador is scum, if not then Snike is scum. The rest is PoE. ##Unvote ##Vote Mancer I'll compel Shinori on it unless someone comes up with a good reason not to, and soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snike Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I'm writing a wall post but Makaze can you apply decision theory to my actions? Namely, why I would nightkill SB (and make me look bad) when my messages give the impression that I think refa is vig + Junko is confirmed town? Also why I would be so 'indecisive/unhelpful' LD2 when Terrador asked for consolidation on the Blitz (who you believe is town) lynch, when going the other way would make me look really bad even with the bus? Could you also provide me an example of what a stronger scum role is if you assume the 3 of us (blitz/elie/me) were scum, so that the activelurker lynch would be the better bus over the inactive scum player? There's a point to these questions, and will explain upon response. Appreciate the switch to mancer, though. which reminds me: ##Vote:Mancer back to writing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makaze Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Why would anyone kill SB? He's no threat. He townread BBM and didn't suspect Mancer, Elieson, Terrador, you, or anyone remotely scummy. He's been useless to town. You could have killed SB just to make that argument. Any scum could. People have been killed for less. Not that I can prove the person who made it is scum, but still. That's a good point about wanting to lynch Elie instead of Blitz. I didn't think of it like that. At this point I think it's Mancer/Terrador. Terrador was the one said "No one has ever lied about numbers". Overall, it fits. Head before heart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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