ODMGUADTMAS - LyLo afterparty

[charlie_]

Leaning towards SK, Freyja has too many role portions for a 3 man scumteam imo. Multiball seems really janky and we don't have the power to deal with it unless they have restricted kills? I don't see town winning that without crossfire in any world. The only thing with this is that Eli's role existing in the same world as an SK seems kind of weird but if its a factional thing it would work.

@Refa, I was the one who killed Blitz in Kirby 2, not scum.

In terms of who makes sense as SK uh... I just reread Omega to try and work out who would kill him and he was all for murdering Prims no matter what. I wouldn't call it a sure thing but I think I could see SK Prims just based on recent posts? Idk how to describe it but it feels like what he's doing now with claim shenanigans is trying to immitate weird stuff he does in his towngames? Like he's trying to scrape together enough towncred to make it to endgame with the timing, kinda.

Dorian's play kinda fits SK because it looks like they were just letting things happen without really caring too much? Nothing about BBM is too telling though.

This kind of applies to Blitz too, and I could see his OC role as a way to get in contact with scum if he was willing to risk it (or if he has an info role too) which is kind of an anti-crossfire measure. Another weird thing about this after looking at the Freyja conversation is that Blitz apparently suspected him but it wasn't reflected in the reads posted at all? Which is a pretty big inconsistency unless he told someone else. Also the eclipse kill would 100% make sense coming from Blitz.

Refa's vig reaction would make perfect sense as SK in hindsight since he would know a real vig is incredibly unlikely, but overall I don't think Mitsuki would give guy who never played before and could potentially flake SK. I also don't think he would hard defend flipped scum as SK either? Its kind of pointless and risky.

Manix is more of a gut thing but I think he would've continued to lay low as SK rather than trying to get into the game? Not 100% on this but I wouldn't lynch it.

Gilgamesh would explain the wacky kills but I almost feel like his quickhammer was too bad to come from SK.

##Vote: Blitz

Blitz > Prims > BBM I guess? Mafia is hard.

[Blitz]

yo, why was there a no kill N2 as per your theory? (@SB)

[BBM]

I'm guessing SB thinks it's 9/2/1. 9/2/1 has all the same problems as 8/2/2 though. Also, Frey having too many role portions seems even weirder if it's only a 2 person scumteam, considering how imbalanced the power distribution would be in the scumteam.

[Blitz]

I'm guessing SB thinks it's 9/2/1. 9/2/1 has all the same problems as 8/2/2 though. Also, Frey having too many role portions seems even weirder if it's only a 2 person scumteam, considering how imbalanced the power distribution would be in the scumteam.

I am actually thinking something doesn't make sense at all regarding SB's multi group theory, regarding the 2nd kill vanishing on N2.

So, SB, you answering that?

[charlie_]

???

I think it's 9/2/1. Even if a kill was blocked my explanation would be "a doc did it" or something which is still very possible.

Ignoring the fakeclaims the scumteam is a weak info+nerfed janitor and a wonky roleblocker, which is I don't think is uneven in power. I don't even know if there's a cop because it sounds like Freyja's role doesn't overwrite role results.

[Blitz]

???

I think it's 9/2/1. Even if a kill was blocked my explanation would be "a doc did it" or something which is still very possible.

Ignoring the fakeclaims the scumteam is a weak info+nerfed janitor and a wonky roleblocker, which is I don't think is uneven in power. I don't even know if there's a cop because it sounds like Freyja's role doesn't overwrite role results.

okay, who was the kill blocked on and how was it blocked?

[charlie_]

...

[Grace]

if it's 9/2/1... there's no mafia alive to make a kill on n2 since we lynched them before n2 even started

also hi just woke up and skimmed, more coherent thoughts probably later

[Grace]

other sidenote: 100% sure there's no way we're in 9/3, since a town vig almost certainly doesn't exist since shooting omega is real dumb. we should probably stop looking for interactions between players and the flipped scum at this point

also why have we not massclaimed yet anyway.

[Refa]

Why can't there be a 1x scum vig?

[Grace]

setup is low power, and it's plain obvious to see. scum don't need additional control over anything; also why jan strawman when he had actually claimed something concrete? if scum had control over a second kill, they would have janned omega instead

[Grace]

like, i thought i has bad at overthinking setups, y'all need to calm down with the crackpot theories and work off simpler presumptions. most of the time, the easiest answer is usually right until you have a good reason to believe otherwise

[charlie_]

@Mitsuki, will it be announced when a faction is eliminated?

Why would Mitsuki decide scum needs a vig here?

[BBM]

if it's 9/2/1 why don't scum have any protection from the SK?

[Grace]

because otherwise the gamestate is more likely to swing toward non-town; i had a bp mafia in a 10/2/1 low power setup and that went real well for town. not

[Refa]

If scum gets lynched D1 or something, it'd help them from getting rolled. That being said...

setup is low power, and it's plain obvious to see. scum don't need additional control over anything; also why jan strawman when he had actually claimed something concrete? if scum had control over a second kill, they would have janned omega instead

Yeah, this is true. As far as SK reads go...

Refa- Still me.

Gilgamesh- BBM is right on the money. While I think his claim is really fishy and his lack of activity this phase (actually, he wasn't very active last phase) are lame, it doesn't make sense for him to quickhammer and then claim w/o being prompted too as scum (neither of which are townie actions but they stand out too much for someone who's self aligned, especially since Gilgamesh has never been SK before AFAIK.

Manix- Basically what SB said. Like, I literally have nothing new to add to that.

Prims- Asked Marthipan about him and he still thinks that Prims is scum (like, regardless of the setup); his issue is that even when Prims votes scum, it doesn't seem to come from a townie mindset. Like, I think Prims play has been better today but I feel like it's not really alignment indicative (as town, he can play better whenever and as SK he'd play better as soon as the mafia faction got eliminated). Hype to see his claim, though.

Blitz- Reread his content, actually feeling worse about him again. Like, I still think his initial post was good (don't see how I was responsible for the Freyjadour lynch at all...). My issue is moreso that he's spending his time asking questions which like...don't have much of a logical progression behind them, which reminds me of .Hack 2 (SB can confirm/deny this). It feels like he's trying to replicate his town meta but yeah.

SB- SB is kind of like Prims in that his content is better today than it was yesterday. It'd also explain his early play but like...he definitely had more conviction in the last game as SK and speaking from my own SK play, I feel like it's pretty easy to be generally confident in your reads as long as you stay under the radar enough.

BBM- Is town. I should probably have a reason for this but it's just his...thought process, I guess. Honestly expecting him to get NK'd tonight, RIP in advance BBM.

So regardless of the setup, people I'd never lynch are me, Gilgamesh, and BBM. I'm pretty confident that Manix and SB are town as well but there's this nagging doubt that makes me not 100% on either. Probably going to vote Blitz.

[Prims]

I'm writing a post, but this just occurred to me: if the scumvig is a revenge kill, what if Omega wasn't janned because he had to be the vig? I've seen variant of revenge vig that can only target people who were on the scum wagon. That still leaves the issue of "why would they kill Strawman" though.

Actually, the more I think about the Strawman kill the more I think 9:3 is unlikely, but the Strawman kill makes no sense even if multiball. Like, even if Freyjadour is going solo, why would he kill the guy who was townreading him? It's also an absurd choice for jan target given Strawman had claimed and even if Freyjadour is inexperienced I'd expect him to know better. I'm seriously considering the possibility of some sort of redirect being in play, most likely from non-town. Which is another point against 9:3.

[Prims]

Prims: this guy is the either the greatest SB ever or legit town. He was very much responsible for lynching the two scum that got lynched, I think. His tone was pretty townie last time I checked off thread too. Like, I think he was trying to gauge what I was doing was as town or scum

How did you get here from having me as one of your main scum reads on D2? BBM asked this but your response didn't seem to answer him.

Prims- Asked Marthipan about him and he still thinks that Prims is scum (like, regardless of the setup); his issue is that even when Prims votes scum, it doesn't seem to come from a townie mindset. Like, I think Prims play has been better today but I feel like it's not really alignment indicative (as town, he can play better whenever and as SK he'd play better as soon as the mafia faction got eliminated). Hype to see his claim, though.

Marth seems to be holding me to some unattainable standard. "As SK Prims would play better when the mafia faction gets eliminated" doesn't mean anything because I'm not going to intentionally play badly regardless of alignment. Like, why is SK Prims going to intentionally not play like town Prims? So he can get lynched later???

My reads from scummiest to towniest:

Blitz - Throughout the game he's been looking for inconsistancies to lynch people over but he approaches those people about the inconsistancies more than he goes for a push to get them lynched, and with both SB and eclipse he sat on his suspicions rather than looking into them. With Blitz it's hard to tell how much of this is just him having activity issues, but I still think his treatment of SB D1 is worth a mention because I had talked to him and we had both agreed Elie was playing to Elie's scum-meta but Blitz put more stock in SB's early day 1 play. (I think this is suspicious even if Blitz isn't on a team with Elie because I'd expect town!Blitz to give Elie less grace. I didn't see him pry at Elie at all.)

Gilgamesh - I don't think Gilgamesh is mafia but I think Gilgamesh makes a lot of sense for SK. The quickhammer on Freyjadour is bizarre for town!Gilgamesh but makes sense as a survival ploy for him if he's SK, because if people backed off Freyjadour they were likely going to switch to Gilgamesh. He also thought Freyjadour was scum so if he was right he'd presumably get cred he could coast off of. His claim still makes no sense, how does LYLO mayor even work?

Refa - His reaction to the fake dayvig still bugs me in that it seemed like he was trying to cement cred with his reaction, due to actions like switching his vote when he was supposedly dead anyway, etc. I agree with whoever said being SK would explain this since he'd have reason to believe there isn't a vig in the game.

SB - He was the D1 counterwagon and I've been hard-townreading him all game so I don't think he's mafia. it would be funny if he rolled SK again but nothing particularly points toward that.

BBM - Yeah probably not mafia since he's the reason Freyjadour got lynched. I'm feeling him as uninformed majority trying to figure out the set-up from his jump back and forth from multiball to 9:3. That said, BBM, why do you think Strawman died if this is 9:3?

Manix - has good interactions with scum wagons so probably not mafia and I think his set-up spec looks like town!Manix trying to figure out the game so I don't think he's SK or altscum either.

Really if both Blitz and Gilgamesh are town then the game is a crapshoot imo. Gilgamesh hammering as SK makes more sense than people are saying though.

[BBM]

prims, why do you sound so demotivated? your posts sound too logical and not belligerent enough

I think your point about a redirect might be it I guess? Even for solo Frey, Strawman was like the worst kill and the worst jan. He was a possible mislynch, had already claimed, and was townreading Frey.

[Grace]

oh god that claim (gligamesh's) is absolutely hilarious and i would lynch it on policy because fuck that noise if it's a non-town role

reiterating this, i wouldn't want that role anywhere near lylo and he's scummy anyway. voting here when i have any idea what the votals are (and i'm not going back to check right now, not sticking around for much longer)

[Prims]

I don't know what to tell you dude I don't care about mafia anymore :(

[Prims]

basically Prims not being super pro-active this game has less to do with alignment and more to do with the same reason I was barely paying attention to my own game when hosting Kirby 2

I even got sick earlygame again I just didn't say anything because it wasn't bad enough as last time and wasn't preventing me from posting or anything

[Prims]

I also haven't been confident in any reads this game except for Refa temporarily because I was mad he was misreading me but I got over that pretty quick and don't think the case was very good

[Prims]

I really think the scum is in Blitz/Gilga and lynching them both will end the game, nothing else makes sense, I just remembered Refa was a sub for dmntmbdntmmndt so I don't think he's SK (and I already don't think Refa is mafia tbh)

[Refa]

Marth seems to be holding me to some unattainable standard. "As SK Prims would play better when the mafia faction gets eliminated" doesn't mean anything because I'm not going to intentionally play badly regardless of alignment. Like, why is SK Prims going to intentionally not play like town Prims? So he can get lynched later???

Town!Prims gets N1'd, but yeah I do agree with what you're saying about Marth FWIW (less so because it's an unattainable standard but you haven't played mafia in like forever and I don't think it's been something I've been really keeping in mind when I've been reading you). To be fair, though, the scumread on you was initially like my read, Marth just agreed w/it and hasn't changed his mind on that.