Ice Dragon Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) In my being pissed at my pull performance on the Nanna banner and being reminded that my luck on Legendary/Mythic Hero banners are often shit, I decided to actually see if I can actually substantiate it or if I just don't notice the times when my luck is actually decent. Here's my performance on every Legendary/Mythic Hero banner since Bramimond, excluding banners with more than one new unit sharing a color: Spoiler Format is "character: [copies of the new unit]-[copies of other units that shared the same color]". So "Nanna: 4-19" means I got 4 copies of Nanna and a combined 19 copies of Sigurd and Lilina for a total of 23 copies of Focus units on that banner. Nanna: 4-19 Caeda: 4-6 Elimine: 10-17 Female Byleth: 5-9 Fae: 11-15 Otr: 1-3 Micaiah: 2-8 Ulir: 6-26 Male Byleth: 6-9 Ashera: 11-35 Sigurd: 1-3 Dagr: 1-2 Claude: 1-1 Seiros: 1-2 Lilina: 3-2 Dimitri: 1-0 Plumeria: 2-0 Corrin: 3-19 Hel: 1-6 Seliph: 3-11 Mila: 1-4 Edelgard: 11-30 Bramimond: 1-4 That comes out to 90 copies of the new unit and 231 copies of other units sharing the new unit's color. So I have a 28.0±3.0% pull rate on the new unit within its color, which puts the expected value (33.3%) 1.8 standard deviations away. Put differently, I pull 2.6 pity breakers for each copy of the new unit (expected value is 2.0). If you only count banners that I pulled at least 10 Focus units on, that comes out to 76 copies of the new unit and 204 copies of other units. That comes out to a 27.1±3.1% pull rate on the new unit within its color, which puts the expected value 2.0 standard deviations away. I pull 2.7 pity breakers for each copy of the new unit. Counting only banners that I pulled at least 20 Focus units on, that's 56 copies of the new unit and 161 copies of other units. That's a 25.8±3.4% pull rate, which is 2.2 standard deviations away. I pull 2.9 pity breakers for each copy of the new unit. So yeah, either I am, in fact, rather unlucky or the new unit is actually weighted lower than the other units. And if it's luck, my luck clearly gets worse the more I pull on a banner. Edited March 31, 2022 by Ice Dragon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diovani Bressan Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Played 1 match of Duels R, I lost, and that's all I need to do this time. I am in Tier 10, which is good enough to me. Only needed to play a match to consider myself in the ranks. (if you don't play a single match, you will get no rewards) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunwoo Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 "To prevent players from unintentionally merging a lower-rarity Hero into a higher-rarity one, the Merge Allies screen will be updated to prevent players from merging a source ally into a target ally if the source ally's rarity is lower than the target ally's rarity." What the fuck, IS. Don't tell me how I should or shouldn't be merging characters. What if that's what I WANT to do? This is bullshit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Humanoid Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 I remember once accidentally merging a 3* Virion into a 4* one like 4-5 years ago, thanks IS! 😛 But yeah, it's interesting in that there's no override, because they could be some edge cases where you might want to do that. From as trivial as adding SP (I don't remember if that works like a normal merge) to the admittedly contrived case where, say, I have more than 4 premium tier 4 skills on my 3* Virion I wish to pass on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenomata Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Oh good Arena Assault will be worth doing again. I was kind of wondering if we'd ever get anything other than feathers from that mode. ...what the fuck is a Refining Stone? I searched Google and all that came up was "Divine Dew going through an identity crisis" Young Marth is in the DC4 lineup... what curious timing with the HoF to get a pantless Marth and then immediately make him +1 merge. More importantly is Spider Plush Sofia! Weapon refines weapon refines, I hope Selkie and Ylgr get something awesome~ Hex Trap... just ends the users actions and cannot be disabled with Disarm Trap... that's just rude... I don't really understand the merge allies update. Is this a problem people have had in the past? Won't really affect me, but I really just don't understand why this was more important than... literally anything else that could be updated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Humanoid Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 The general idea of revamping crusty old modes is definitely more interesting that their attempts at adding entirely new modes, yeah. But in a way it makes it increases the opportunity cost and therefore makes it even more disappointing in off-weeks where Summoner Duels are shoved in our faces instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Othin Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Xenomata said: I don't really understand the merge allies update. Is this a problem people have had in the past? Won't really affect me, but I really just don't understand why this was more important than... literally anything else that could be updated. I've seen complaints about it, but it does seem worth allowing an override. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinco Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 I think I don't like the changes on the arena bonus rotation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 41 minutes ago, Rinco said: I think I don't like the changes on the arena bonus rotation. I don't either. Now you either have to pull on the new banner to have a unit that you can use for two weeks or you have to change your bonus unit every week. I can't change how much I pull on the new banners, so all this does is make me care less about staying in Tier 21. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Othin Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 Silhouettes are expected tonight, right? I'm gonna reiterate my guess of Ninian+Nils, Lyn, Hector, and Eliwood, and complete it by guessing Zephiel as the TT unit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naoshi Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 yes, they are today, in less one hour I will say its tellius children. Ike+Soren, Mist, Elincia, Micaiah and Sothe as TT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Humanoid Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 Turn it around and make it an elders banner with decrepit Eliwood as the main attraction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tybrosion Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 How about Three Houses? We are past due for more TH content. Seiros & Sothis Edelgard Dimitri M!Byleth [4* Focus] Claude [TT] Yes, Seiros & Sothis instead of Edelgard & Dimitri because the concept of a child Seiros & an adult Sothis duo is quite a bit more interesting in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Emblem Fan Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 I'll go ahead and guess either Blazing Blade (Ninian + Nils, Eliwood, Lyn, Hector, Nergal), or Tellius (Ike + Mist, Soren, Elincia, Lucia, Geoffrey). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tybrosion Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 Lol, no silhouettes because IS forgot that April Fools was two days ago. So we either aren't getting any at all (they have to reveal the banner before the 5th because of the TT banner, followed by the version update later in the day) or they'll drop the silhouettes in the dead of night like they did with Legendary Caeda's trailer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Some Jerk Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagicCanonBalls Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Used up all my ladder within 1st hour of reset is breaking a record somewhere. But it's all good fun since I am experimenting with my new Galeforece team Thorr+F!Kris, and Thorr+Kaze. Somehow Thorr being a bonus unit actually hinders her because she oneshot too many unit and can't proc galeforce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenomata Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 ...ah hell, I forgot to use all my HoF torches. Well uh... I was aiming to build Marth and Merric, and I... guess they were adequately gifted? The skills aren't that amazing though... Marth: Rapier, Rally up Atk+, Hero's Blood, Sturdy Stance 3, Special Spiral, Joint Dist. Guard Merric: Amity Blooms, Rally up Spd+, Aether, Life and Death 4, Lull Spd/Res, Joint Drive Spd I would have liked to give Marth Distant Counter and Time's Pulse, and Merric ASideal4 and ASmenace, but... oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Javi Blizz Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 (edited) Hi guys, does anyone know when is scheduled the Double Special Heroes banner where Ninjorrin comes back? Not the date, just the month. Edited April 7, 2022 by Javi Blizz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Javi Blizz said: Hi guys, does anyone know when is scheduled the Double Special Heroes banner where Ninjorrin comes back? Not the date, just the month. The previous ninja banner was distributed between the April and June Double Special Heroes banners, so Duo Corrin will most likely return in either April or June of this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Javi Blizz Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: The previous ninja banner was distributed between the April and June Double Special Heroes banners, so Duo Corrin will most likely return in either April or June of this year. Thanks! Let’s hope then that it’s June so that I have enough time to save orbs 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diovani Bressan Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 4 hours ago, Javi Blizz said: Let’s hope then that it’s June so that I have enough time to save orbs 🙂 According to the Special Heroes list, Ninja Corrin is the next Duo Hero in line. I don't think her appearance in the AHR Banner will change that. They always run a Duo Hero and a Harmonized Hero in those banners, and Ninja Lyn is the next one. With that said, Ninja Lyn should be this month, April 2022. Also, she should share with Winter Artur. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenomata Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 (edited) After Lachesis has run her course in the Resplendent circle, we now know the Resplendent after her will be Saber: Driven Mercenary. And not gonna lie, the art here is pretty freakin cool (and notably drops the original Valentian Brave Sword so Saber can use the Golden Dagger he actually uses) Spoiler Saber's statline is so remarkably average with a base of 40-31-33-32-22 (of course low Res, that's pretty normal for early-release units) and no superboons. At max potential (+10m, +20df, Resp. bonus, and with a Spd asset) we are looking at a statline of 50/41/46/42/32, which HP and Def aside is about where most modern units are sitting at. His personal weapon, the Golden Dagger (it's a sword), has the Slaying effect and, with its special refine, grants a Spectrum +3 and Distant Counter effect as long as Saber's special is ready when combat begins. While the intended playstyle usually means defensive specials, as synergized with his default Shield Pulse and Aegis, it is theoretically possible to use any special in tandem with effects that grant Special Charge, such as Time's Pulse, as unlike many modern skills no requirements are specified for his equipped Special. Saber overall doesn't have too much to his name, and would require a fair bit of attention to bring him to the levels of modern Sword Infantry units (in some cases even taking directly from other Sword Inf units), but his weapon does have an interesting effect to it that can open up the A slot to stronger A passives. As far as Resplendents go, he does appreciate the boost, and as far as art goes, he appreciates the coolness I'm sure. Edited April 8, 2022 by Xenomata Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Othin Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 That's a sweet take on jotun outfits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Jotunheim Saber looks pretty cool. He also gets unique attacking and Special activation art. His stat spread after Dragonflowers is 46/37/39/38/28, which is unfortunately still quite a bit below modern infantry swords, and his weapon only granting him +3 to all stats instead of the +5 that is common for modern weapons certainly doesn't help. As far as Distant Counter sword infantry go, he's outclassed by literally everyone, including the much easier to obtain Yen'fay (-2/+4 offenses and Dodge in exchange for the Slaying effect), as well as previous Resplendent Heroes Ike (+5/-1) and Ryoma (+4/+3 and Null Follow-Up in exchange for the Slaying effect). And that's not to mention the fact that Saber needs his Special to be active at the start of combat in order to even get Distant Counter and the stat boost. Saber is basically shoehorned into running Shield Pulse + Aegis/Pavise or Special Spiral + any 3-cooldown Special. Or, if you go pure player phase and don't use dancers, Time's Pulse + any 2-cooldown Special. His optimal builds probably look something like Saber [+Spd] Golden Dagger [unique] [Assist] Aegis Kestrel Stance 3 Shield Pulse 3 Atk/Spd Menace / etc. Atk/Spd Form 3 / Quick Riposte 3 / etc. Saber [+Spd] Golden Dagger [unique] [Assist] Vital Astra Kestrel Stance 3 / Atk/Spd Ideal Special Spiral 3 Atk/Spd Menace / etc. Atk/Spd Solo 3 / Quick Riposte 3 / etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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