Wedding Banner Speculation

[Sias]

5 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

Uh...what? This doesn't even make sense. No character is splitting votes with anyone other than different versions of themselves (like PoR Ike and RD Ike being split).

What he probably tries to tell you is this: Assuming that every game (or group of closely related games) has a certain fanbase, the members of said base will likely prefer to vote for the characters of that game. When you take a look at the top results now, you see that the majority are Awakening/Fates characters, while there are comparatively fewer people from PoR/RD.

The conclusion he draws from that is the following one: When the PoR/RD fans voted for their games, they mostly voted for Ike (and threw in some votes for Micaiah/Mia/Nephenee as well, but the rest of the cast seems comparatively unpopular). In the Awakening/Fates crowd however people had far more favourites and therefore didn't give all their votes to Lucina, but instead to other characters as well. She had far more concurrence in her own game/fanbase so her votes got possibly diluted.

[mewyeon]

I think they're probably just going to go with pairings that are officially canon...too risky with the fanbase to do anything more than that lol.

[TheNiddo]

11 minutes ago, Sias said:

What he probably tries to tell you is this: Assuming that every game (or group of closely related games) has a certain fanbase, the members of said base will likely prefer to vote for the characters of that game. When you take a look at the top results now, you see that the majority are Awakening/Fates characters, while there are comparatively fewer people from PoR/RD.

The conclusion he draws from that is the following one: When the PoR/RD fans voted for their games, they mostly voted for Ike (and threw in some votes for Micaiah/Mia/Nephenee as well, but the rest of the cast seems comparatively unpopular). In the Awakening/Fates crowd however people had far more favourites and therefore didn't give all their votes to Lucina, but instead to other characters as well. She had far more concurrence in her own game/fanbase so her votes got possibly diluted.

This exactly. 

[Ice Dragon]

39 minutes ago, TheNiddo said:

You're not looking at the poll right.

The poll had votes split among every character from every game. Lets assume Awakening/Heroes characters largely attract the same pool of voters, and that FE6/7 has its pool, and that FE9/10 has its own pool. Obviously some would vote for every game in that range but then well, their votes are pretty evenly split most likely and doesn't matter for this next bit.

Within the top 20 for males and females, Lucina had to split her votes with: Chrom, Male Robin, Takumi, Leo, Henry, Donnel, Lon'qu, Gaius, Niles, Owain, Tharja, Camilla, Female Corrin, Cordelia, Azura, Nowi, Female Robin, Adult Tiki, Felicia, Elise, Anna and Sakura. That's a whopping 22 characters out of the top 40 with one (Donnel) largely being a meme vote.

Ike had to split with: Micaiah, Mia, Nephenee. Ignoring his own vote split he had to split with 3 other characters.

Lyn? Roy, Hector, Dorcas, Eliwood, Nino. 5 with one being a meme vote (Dorcas). If you decide that Sacred Stone fans would also vote for FE7 characters then you can add in Ephraim, Erikia, Joshua, and Lute bringing the overall total up to 9. Which is still less than half of the vote splitting Lucina probably had to do. 

So Lucina got 2nd or 3rd (depending on how you look at it... actually if you count all votes period Anna got the most votes out of everyone so you'd bump down everyone's ranking by 1) most votes while splitting her votes with over double the amount of people Lyn or Ike did in the top 20. If you combine the FE6-10 characters together Lucina still had to split with exactly twice as many characters.

Realistically if it was Lords only, Lucina would absolutely crush Ike and Lyn. Wouldn't even be a contest. She would be S+++ tier in votes. Then Ike would come in 2nd due to Hector and Lyn stealing each other's votes.

That's not entirely accurate.

If you use the top 40 globally ("global" referring to "across all games") and assume voters tend to bunch up around each group of games, you're setting the cutoff at different levels within each group of voters. The top 40 global, for example, might represent 75% of the total votes of a popular game, but only 10% of the total votes of an unpopular game. It's therefore inaccurate to say that the top performer of the popular game split their vote across more characters because you're also counting a larger proportion of the votes for that game.

For an illustrative example (because I'm not confident that the above adequately explained things), say you have only two games, each with 5 characters. One game is more popular as a whole and its characters received 15, 12, 9, 6, and 3 votes, and the other game's characters received 10, 8, 6, 4, and 2 votes. By all means, the supporters of each game's most popular character split their vote identically over the same number of characters (both top performers gained 33% of their game's total vote and the ratios are identical).

However, if you arbitrarily look at the top 5, you have 15, 12, and 9 from game one and 10 and 8 from game two. This makes it look like game one's top performer had their vote split (only 42%, 5:4:3:0:0) more than game two's top performer (55%, 5:4:0:0:0) because you're accounting for 80% of the total votes for game one, but only 60% of the total votes for game two.

The most accurate way to determine how votes are split within each "demographic" is to simply calculate the percentage of votes each character received relative to the total number of votes for their game, then compare across games.

 

Also, by the same assumptions (which are heuristically valid), in the lords only case, you don't even have to care how the votes are split in each game. Lucina would win popularity simply by having the backing of everyone in Team Awakening, which simply outnumbers Team Tellius and the two halves of Team GBA. Just tally up the numbers for each game, and that's your vote split.

[Arthur97]

6 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

That's not entirely accurate.

If you use the top 40 globally ("global" referring to "across all games") and assume voters tend to bunch up around each group of games, you're setting the cutoff at different levels within each group of voters. The top 40 global, for example, might represent 75% of the total votes of a popular game, but only 10% of the total votes of an unpopular game. It's therefore inaccurate to say that the top performer of the popular game split their vote across more characters because you're also counting a larger proportion of the votes for that game.

For an illustrative example (because I'm not confident that the above adequately explained things), say you have only two games, each with 5 characters. One game is more popular as a whole and its characters received 15, 12, 9, 6, and 3 votes, and the other game's characters received 10, 8, 6, 4, and 2 votes. By all means, the supporters of each game's most popular character split their vote identically over the same number of characters (both top performers gained 33% of their game's total vote and the ratios are identical).

However, if you arbitrarily look at the top 5, you have 15, 12, and 9 from game one and 10 and 8 from game two. This makes it look like game one's top performer had their vote split (only 42%, 5:4:3:0:0) more than game two's top performer (55%, 5:4:0:0:0) because you're accounting for 80% of the total votes for game one, but only 60% of the total votes for game two.

The most accurate way to determine how votes are split within each "demographic" is to simply calculate the percentage of votes each character received relative to the total number of votes for their game, then compare across games.

 

Also, by the same assumptions (which are heuristically valid), in the lords only case, you don't even have to care how the votes are split in each game. Lucina would win popularity simply by having the backing of everyone in Team Awakening, which simply outnumbers Team Tellius and the two halves of Team GBA. Just tally up the numbers for each game, and that's your vote split.

Wouldn't Lucina have to share with Chrom? She'd still win of course, but it might bring it down some.

[Ice Dragon]

1 minute ago, Arthur97 said:

Wouldn't Lucina have to share with Chrom? She'd still win of course, but it might bring it down some.

Assuming only the characters he mentioned, so Lucina, Ike, Lyn, and Hector.

[Tenzen12]

I don't realistically see her beat Lyn and Hector. She is not THAT good.

Most people vote for character for character. Not just based on game they were in.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Tenzen12

[Arthur97]

16 minutes ago, Tenzen12 said:

I don't realistically see her beat Lyn and Hector. She is not THAT good.

Most people vote for character for character. Not just based on game they were in.

She already beat Hector, and I don't think it's too unreasonable to say that she could beat Lyn given that CYL has some issues with accuracy as stated above.

And the point is, Awakening fans probably voted more diversely while the older ones seemed to pull their votes toward a select few. Assuming a good amount of them also voted for Lucina at some point, if they pulled into one character like her, they would probably win. Plus, a lot of Awakening era fans probably also voted for Ike due to Smash as they considered who to vote for over thirteen days.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Arthur97

[Tenzen12]

And I am saying that there is no reason for people who voted for other characters from Tellius should vote for her just because she is from same game. Unless of course Tellius are only FE games they played.

[TheNiddo]

15 minutes ago, Tenzen12 said:

I don't realistically see her beat Lyn and Hector. She is not THAT good.

Most people vote for character for character. Not just based on game they were in.

That they do.

Problem is a whole massive chunk of people only started since Awakening. Have never touched FE7. This (very rough, not entirely accurate with FE7's numbers probably cut off after the first digit, but in the general ballpark for each game) link should show off what I mean: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Fire_Emblem

You can't vote for a character you don't know much of anything about. Well I mean you can like physically but you're highly unlikely to do so. 

Also Lucina is mad popular. The most popular character in the 2nd most popular game. "She's not THAT good", assuming that's about her personality or w/e is subjective. Popularity within a game isn't, nor are game sales. Lyn and Hector wouldn't stand a chance simply due to sheer numbers. We see that happening with the Voting Gauntlets actually: Awakening and Fates characters will almost always win due to having the largest number of people who actually know who they are. You might get a few meme based wins in the future like say Nino, and depending on the exact Gauntlet Ike/Lyn/Hector/Roy could steal a win in the right situation. But 90% of the battles are going to end with the Awakening/Fates character winning.

[Tenzen12]

She still lost and I find rather silly looking for excuse like her friends stealing her votes. 

But yeah if she really won in gauntlet, that would be pretty convincing.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Tenzen12

[Arthur97]

2 minutes ago, Tenzen12 said:

And I am saying that there is no reason for people who voted for other characters from Tellius should vote for her just because she is from same game. Unless of course Tellius are only FE games they played.

No, in this scenario, they would vote for Ike most likely. Still, Lucina has a chance against Lyn and maybe even Ike. Lyn may not actually be as popular as you think either since some older fans were so determined not to let Lucina win, that they voted Lyn whether they liked her or not.

2 minutes ago, TheNiddo said:

That they do.

Problem is a whole massive chunk of people only started since Awakening. Have never touched FE7. This (very rough, not entirely accurate with FE7's numbers probably cut off after the first digit, but in the general ballpark for each game) link should show off what I mean: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Fire_Emblem

You can't vote for a character you don't know much of anything about. Well I mean you can like physically but you're highly unlikely to do so. 

Also Lucina is mad popular. The most popular character in the 2nd most popular game. "She's not THAT good", assuming that's about her personality or w/e is subjective. Popularity within a game isn't, nor are game sales. Lyn and Hector wouldn't stand a chance simply due to sheer numbers. We see that happening with the Voting Gauntlets actually: Awakening and Fates characters will almost always win due to having the largest number of people who actually know who they are. You might get a few meme based wins in the future like say Nino, and depending on the exact Gauntlet Ike/Lyn/Hector/Roy could steal a win in the right situation. But 90% of the battles are going to end with the Awakening/Fates character winning.

Actually, I would say she's from the most popular game. Fates may have sold more (there were three versions after all), but it just didn't seem to have the same staying power as Awakening which is represented by the fact that Awakening scored the most votes as a game.

[Arthur97]

1 minute ago, Tenzen12 said:

She still lost and I find rather silly looking for excuse like her friends stealing her votes. 

But yeah if she really won in gauntlet, that would be pretty convincing.

Yes, she lost in a ballot where you can vote more than once and for the same character repeatedly. That can skew results, but you don't seem inclined to listen.

[Tenzen12]

Oh right I heard hat before anti-Lucina campaign conspiracy. Good luck with that.

[Arthur97]

1 minute ago, Tenzen12 said:

Oh right I heard hat before anti-Lucina campaign conspiracy. Good luck with that.

I'm not saying it swayed the results that much, but, again, you seem dead set against her so there's no point in continuing. 

Edited May 16, 2017 by Arthur97

[Tenzen12]

I like her and there is no reason why should any relevant number of people try actively stop her from winning by voting for someone they don't care out of some weird spite. 

 

[Arthur97]

2 minutes ago, Tenzen12 said:

I like her and there is no reason why should any relevant number of people try actively stop her from winning by voting for someone they don't care out of some weird spite. 

Well, it is a weird spite. It's likely a small (yet loud) minority of people, but there are those who did it.

[Tenzen12]

Small minority like that wouldn't make difference. It's better to be gracious loser then sore one. Forget about conspiracies.

 

Anyway I don't have anything more to say, so I will stop here now. Feel free have last word if you wish.

[Sentinel07]

You know guys, there's a possibility that they may not use actual pairings at all. It could be 4 people that aren't really related in that regard.

But as for characters, I don't think Lucina or Tharja will be in it. Lucina had her time in the Spring banner and is going to have a CYL variant probably not too long after this, and we already know from previous datamines that Tharja was (and probably still is) planned to be in a Christmas/Winter theme event.

Honestly, I don't know how I feel about the idea of using characters that aren't in the game yet. Characters I'm seeing mentioned like Seth, Sigurd, and such like that...I'd much rather see them in the game properly before any potential variants.

[luis_lara12345]

Hi everyone, I want to ask you something is there really a Leak of the characters who are going to receive a bride costume?, I heard about that but without proofs, I only heard than Adult Tiki, Oboro (I want her), Lyn and a unknown woman are going to recive the outfits

[Roflolxp54]

18 minutes ago, luis_lara12345 said:

Hi everyone, I want to ask you something is there really a Leak of the characters who are going to receive a bride costume?, I heard about that but without proofs, I only heard than Adult Tiki, Oboro (I want her), Lyn and a unknown woman are going to recive the outfits

I've heard of no such leak; otherwise, SF and Reddit would have already known about it. Got a source for that information?

Edited May 18, 2017 by Roflolxp54

[GuiltyLove]

On 5/15/2017 at 6:53 PM, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Is Bride Titania close enough?

 

Oh god... what if all the units included in the wedding banners are the ones with unrequited love?

Bride Catria.... and Palla

MY SISTERS HAVE ALL GROWN UP

[Cute Chao]

I wouldn't mind Groom Reinhardt for unrequited love. Not sure about any other males with it... Ogma, I guess?

[GuiltyLove]

Just now, Cute Chao said:

I wouldn't mind Groom Reinhardt for unrequited love. Not sure about any other males with it... Ogma, I guess?

I don't feel like Ogma really has a crush on Caeda though. He just seems extremely loyal

[Cute Chao]

Just now, GuiltyLove said:

I don't feel like Ogma really has a crush on Caeda though. He just seems extremely loyal

I saw someone say it and couldn't for the life of me remember if it was canon or not. I just couldn't think of any other guys off the top of my head that had it and had no chance of getting the girl lol

Oooooh, wait, Tobin :D