Voting Gauntlet: War of the Clerics

[AbsoluteZer0Nova]

As someone who is part of Team Elise I have 1,515 flags (though a extra 100 flags if I get a colorless ally for 3 more battles already.)

Edited July 2, 2017 by AbsoluteZer0Nova

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

26,267,564,234 to 24,443,648,235, huh. I think we might be able to get another multiplier on deck with 13 hours, since we're definitely gonna get overtaken.

[Korath88]

While team Priscilla seems to be doomed, keep in mind that team Elise likely still has a lot of flags stockpiled and with no multiplier for them in sight, they might start spending their flags to compete with each other for rank feathers, which may just be enough to push Priscilla into a final multiplier hour.

Well, that's just me being hopeful, of course.

[Lemmy]

it might be 7-9 hours before team elise catches up, unless tons of flags being left changes things, I doubt there will be another multiplier

[Hawk King]

Damn, we didn't get nearly enough. There is no way that Elise can outscore us by over 5 billion down the stretch here, so we need to do all we can to hold onto this lead.

2 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

26,267,564,234 to 24,443,648,235, huh. I think we might be able to get another multiplier on deck with 13 hours, since we're definitely gonna get overtaken.

Elise needs to out gain us by over 5 billion points. That isn't happening. Our only chance is to hold the lead and I really don't think that is going to happen.

 

Super Shanna is back in the Top 50. Rank 43 right now if you wanna check her out.

[Bartozio]

1 minute ago, Lemmy said:

it might be 7-9 hours before team elise catches up, unless tons of flags being left changes things, I doubt there will be another multiplier

And even after we catch up, we still need to take a cconsiderable lead before Priscilla gets a multiplier, so I think we're fine.

[Xaos Steel Wing]

Uh oh, that last bonus wasn't enough to put Elise into another bonus, and this lead won't last, but Elise probably won't get enough of a lead to put Priscilla into another bonus.

It's been interesting for a few hours, but it looks like Elise will likely win in the end. Oh well...

[Raven]

8 minutes ago, Korath88 said:

While team Priscilla seems to be doomed, keep in mind that team Elise likely still has a lot of flags stockpiled and with no multiplier for them in sight, they might start spending their flags to compete with each other for rank feathers, which may just be enough to push Priscilla into a final multiplier hour.

Well, that's just me being hopeful, of course.

This is what I also think will actually happen.

[Lemmy]

so once again, I must be a team elise hero and not play at all

[Rezzy]

5 minutes ago, Lemmy said:

so once again, I must be a team elise hero and not play at all

Just like War, the only winning move is not to play.

 

I would like to thank my children, for giving me a reason to be up at 5:00 AM and managing to see the multiplier this time.

[Raven]

5 minutes ago, Lemmy said:

so once again, I must be a team elise hero and not play at all

It's unlikely that many will care enough to do the same as you, since you get more feathers from doing well in both overall and army ranks than a simple 500 feathers for army victory.

[Korath88]

17 minutes ago, Hawk King said:

Super Shanna is back in the Top 50. Rank 43 right now if you wanna check her out.

Just checked. She's missing fire boost. 

[bethany81707]

3 minutes ago, Raven said:

It's unlikely that many will care enough to do the same as you, since you get more feathers from doing well in both overall and army ranks than a simple 500 feathers for army victory.

It's a bit like the Prisoner's Dilemma in that regard. I think.

[Lemmy]

The last match was very close to a loss just because we were winning too well, and if people start using flags the same thing could happen

[Vaximillian]

8 minutes ago, Korath88 said:

Just checked. She's missing fire boost. 

And Atk Ploy too. Impressive anyway.

[Solunar]

43 minutes ago, Hawk King said:

Damn, we didn't get nearly enough. There is no way that Elise can outscore us by over 5 billion down the stretch here, so we need to do all we can to hold onto this lead.

Elise needs to out gain us by over 5 billion points. That isn't happening. Our only chance is to hold the lead and I really don't think that is going to happen.

 

Super Shanna is back in the Top 50. Rank 43 right now if you wanna check her out.

Where are you getting 5 billion from? 

If you multiply by the estimated rounded up rate of votes per hour for Elise (500 mil) by 13 and add it to the current score (24,443 mil) you get 30,943. Multiply that by 90%, you get 27,848. So more like 3 billion. 

Do the math for team Priscilla (assuming rate is around 250 mil/hr, then you have 29,517 mil at the final hour. 

These estimated rates are high for Elise and Low for Priscilla, so their scores would actually be closer, but There's no way to keep the lead since majority of Elise Players have saved most their flags and with no multiplier in sight, they'll probably use most of them. Only way Team Priscilla has a chance is if everyone just stopped playing which will give us the multiplier again, but through observation this never quite happens. If Team Elise holds off on spending their flags for no reason, we might have a chance to keep the lead if our side still has ppl with lots of flags, but it's unlikely. No matter how you slice it, timing just sucked for Team Priscilla. 

I'll do another more accurate rate estimate later, but I don't think there'll be another multiplier, unless a miracle happens.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Solunar

[Solunar]

Wow, from the last hour, Priscilla went from 26,267 mil to 26,685 mil which is a 418 mil gain. If we can keep that up, we'll still be in the lead by the end of it (assuming Elise follows its 500 mil/hr increase). 

[Hawk King]

33 minutes ago, Solunar said:

Where are you getting 5 billion from?

Elise was down by 1.8 billion. After 13 hours of gains she would need to be ahead of Priscilla by over 3 billion for Priscilla to get another bonus. 1.8 + 3 = 4.8 rounded to 5 billion. Right?

18 minutes ago, Solunar said:

Wow, from the last hour, Priscilla went from 26,267 mil to 26,685 mil which is a 418 mil gain. If we can keep that up, we'll still be in the lead by the end of it (assuming Elise follows its 500 mil/hr increase). 

I was surprised too. There is actually a chance.

 

1 hour ago, Korath88 said:

Just checked. She's missing fire boost. 

55 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

And Atk Ploy too. Impressive anyway.

So everything but the Fire Boost line, the Atk Ploy line and HP/Def 2. Not too shabby if you ask me. I can't even imagine how much SP it would have taken to learn all of those skills let alone how long it would take to get all of that SP. By far the most impressive thing I have seen someone do in this game.

[Vaximillian]

5 minutes ago, Hawk King said:

So everything but the Fire Boost line, the Atk Ploy line and HP/Def 2. Not too shabby if you ask me. I can't even imagine how much SP it would have taken to learn all of those skills let alone how long it would take to get all of that SP. By far the most impressive thing I have seen someone do in this game.

There was an Alfonse on reddit with a similar list of skills: (12.5kpx long pic)

[The_antithesis]

43 minutes ago, Solunar said:

Wow, from the last hour, Priscilla went from 26,267 mil to 26,685 mil which is a 418 mil gain. If we can keep that up, we'll still be in the lead by the end of it (assuming Elise follows its 500 mil/hr increase). 

OK, my flags are at the ready!

[Solunar]

6 minutes ago, Hawk King said:

Elise was down by 1.8 billion. After 13 hours of gains she would need to be ahead of Priscilla by over 3 billion for Priscilla to get another bonus. 1.8 + 3 = 4.8 rounded to 5 billion. Right?

Oh, that's what you meant. Gotcha. 

There's something I can't seem to wrap my head around. Say you're increasing at a rate of 100 million per hour on votes for a team. For calculation purposes, let's just say nobody has the character. So if you go minimum vote which is 100P, it's safe to say there's about 1 million people voting for that side. If everybody smacks the x100 (10,000P) on the flags, how does the score not increase by x100 and turn into an increase of (10,000 mil/10 bil). 

I know there isn't 1 million ppl voting for a side (I actually have no idea what the numbers are), but arguably, if the rate of Elise is 500 mil an hour, if they all used their flags x100 or x200, shouldn't that sky rocket their score? 

Please tell me what I'm missing here. Am I doing some math horribly wrong? Or are there people on each team spending their flags randomly each hour.

[Lemmy]

before now, there wasn't much incentive for either team to use flags outside of multiplier. elise's would have been nullifed by a rubberband, and priscilla's would have been slowing down a rubberband. now might be the dumping phase.

[Bartozio]

This is rather suprising, but it seems Priscilla is actually keeping her lead pretty well. I think the lead went from a little above 1.6 billion to a little belo 1.5 billion, which is would mean she actually wins if this keeps up. Team Elise should have more flags saved up, so we might still make it, but this is going to get close.

I think it's time to show evryone what the Nohrian army can do team Elise! Lets spend some flags!

[Tybrosion]

You know, Priscilla winning may cause more harm than good if you didn't like how the gauntlet went the first two times. If she does win, you know that a lot of people on Team Elise will complain that it not only wouldn't have happened without the enhanced multiplier but Priscilla would've gotten destroyed if you took it away entirely, which is completely true. With how open IS has been with addressing criticisms with the game and making changes accordingly, there's a very good chance they at the very least would dial the multiplier back to how it was in the last gauntlet if not axe it entirely if a big enough of an outcry occurs over an Elise loss.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Tybrosion

[Zapp Branniglenn]

Whoa, the 4AM multipliers strike again.

Theory: as more and more of America goes to sleep, Priscilla scores less and less until she hits a multiplier. She hails from our Fire Emblem 1. But now America is wide awake for the remainder of the round. I think Priscilla can hold the lead ~