Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Percivalé]

i'm as paranoid about bbm as the next person but i have my reasons to think he's town too.

we at least know marth likely isn't mafia so he might as well be kinda clear. i don't really doubt his role in this game.

[Percivalé]

I'm re-reading shinori. do you think his interactions with bbm are scum interacting with scum?

I'm trying to decide if shinori and mich are buddies and right now from what I see he voted mich and stuck on it without a lot of substance and was hesitant about the baldrick lynch, like he was trying to decide if it was worth it and figured it probably wasn't. his comments on mich handwave things he's said like "he makes scum post after scum post" but he replies to kirsche and bbm with a lot more words and a lot more rage

[Percivalé]

I still really want a sully lynch today. I started out today wanting a kirsche lynch first and foremost but I want a sully lynch more now. I need that flip damn it.

[Percivalé]

5 hours ago, kirsche said:

I get re-evaluating after a failed flip but you agreed with my arguments before but now my arguments are scummy for reasons that you haven't gone into.

see but I think part of the problem is a good chunk of the game thinks you're scum out of PoE (admittedly i did too but i have my doubts now) so people are reaching for reasons you might be scum. there's this issue where like, if sully is scum no one can seem to figure out who his buddy would be because everyone thinks mich is town and this is really really why i want a sully lynch asap. i don't really get why people think mich was town besides meta and elie's play so far has not been protown.

[Percivalé]

short form. the people who don't think sully is scum are searching for reasons kirsche might be scum and i think this is what's causing kirsche to scumread bbm. i have to go to bed i'll be back tomorrow after work. i was kept overtime yesterday which is why i couldn't respond to sully before deadline when i said i would ;_;

[Percivalé]

(ugh what i meant was like. it probably seems like bbm is reaching because that's kind of what we've been doing admittedly i think. because of the whole PoE thing)

[BBM]

I'll fully admit I was not 100% sold on scum!kirsche at the beginning of the day. That's why I didn't start off with a vote against him, and I said 70% of my vote on him was PoE, and I said at some point "kirsche > bartozio > sully but I don't feel good about it". however his case against me today sucks and has made me more confident in him being scum. also kirsche definitely has enough self-confidence to push for my lynch so I don't see that as a point in his favour.

here's another point- kirsche today, talking about how long he's been suspicious of me:

5 hours ago, kirsche said:

Since D1. Nothing he did afterwards screamed suspicious but I was cautious of him since D1. Every defence that has been made towards him has never convinced me either and I've been keeping an eye out for them. Even D2 I was arguing against people saying BBM was town.

kirsche on D2:

On 12/3/2017 at 11:20 AM, kirsche said:

If Baldrick flips town then, mostly by PoE my scum team would be Bart and some combinations of Mich//Shinori/Sully/BBM which I'd hope becomes clear from the ISOing (BBM's cases and thought processes this phase are good so he's probably the least likely here now). I think Refa/Mack are strong town on play/role and think Via/Marth are town based on comments and plays (BBM's defence of Marth is pretty solid).

it is true that he wasn't townreading me, and he did argue against some townreads of me on d2 (notably from Marth) but his wording today implies that he had some background level of suspicion about me all D2, which he clearly did not. I'll maaaaybe concede to him "keeping an eye on me" because he singles me out here over the other people. but there's definitely a disconnect in tone talking about me today vs D2- and the post is with a town!Baldrick flip in mind so the Baldrick flip doesn't explain it.

[BBM]

I understand why you want to lynch Sully- his most memorable posts since D2 started have been the ones where he was making those night-kill analyses, or breaking down the Marth/Bartozio claims. Those kinds of posts are easy for scum to make because they're about objective facts, whereas scumhunting is all about subjectively analyzing the thread, which requires scum to fake a perspective they don't have. But those kinds of posts are also easier for new players to make.

I wouldn't be totally opposed to a Sully lynch but as Refa pointed out a kirsche/sully/shinori team is unlikely because kirsche probably wouldn't have come into the day with his sole cases being on his buddies, and I think kirsche is more likely to be scum; I really do. I think Bartozio is more likely to be scum than Sully; I just don't want to lynch his claim today.

[charlie_]

Votals 3.3

kirsche (3): Refa, BBM, SullyMcGully
SullyMcGully (2): Via, Bartozio
Marth (1): kirsche

Not Voting (2): Elieson, Marth

There are 33 hours and 25 minutes left in the day. With 8 alive, it takes 3 to lynch and 5 to hammer.

Edited December 7, 2017 by SB.

[Bartozio]

Honestly, I'm really not liking Kirsches defense of his prims vote.

19 hours ago, kirsche said:

It wasn't just that Prims was a better player but that it wasn't what I expected from him after Rein's game.

12 hours ago, kirsche said:

Why is it bad exactly? We played the first day of that OC game rather like NOC in terms of scumreads and lynching someone because of it. I questioned if it really makes such a huge difference that one can talk to people individually because frankly I don't think I would have played that game that much differently if the convos in thread stayed the same and I didn't talk to people out of thread.

Together these quotes imply he was thinking Prims posts in the thread during Reins game were good on their own, but I'm pretty that's just not the case. Like, please tell me what Prims posted in the thread that wasn't:

- Telling people to claim to him.

- Comment on cases other people made.

- Voting people who were inactive as a prod.

- Vote people because he thought they were scum based on their claims to him.

Don't get me wrong, Prims' posts that game were good because of how they supported his play outside the thread, but I don't see how you can his posts way better then this game and also think the OC part didn't matter.

12 hours ago, kirsche said:

-undermining my Sully case subtlety is scummy for the reason I mentioned. It doesn't matter if my Sully case was/is bad or not (it's not), not actually arguing against it is scummy because you are trying to convince people that its bad without actually proving its bad. Stating the case is obviously bad, doesn't make it bad.

I find this response a bit odd as well. You're blaming BBM for asking you to expand on your case, but haven't you been doing the same thing this entire game?

Your initial post contains a lot of questions to people about clearifying their cases on Sully. Why is this not undermining their cases, but BBM asking you is?

Honestly, I'm feeling Sully/Kirsche as a scum team even more now. Considering how both of his buddies were under heavy suspision, it wouldn't suprise me that much if Kirsche wanted to get a case out on both of them to make sure he wouldn't look bad after their flip.

I'm fine with a lynch on either of them, but swapping my vote would put Kirsche at L-1, so lets not do that just yet...

[SullyMcGully]

@Bartozio you seem to have a habit of ignoring arguments against you. So I want you to respond to this one, specifically. 

Your case for the D1 Ken/LG wagon wasn't the best. Even Prims pointed that out. Your posting throughout D2 was sporadic and upon rereading, I could not find a single time you voted for  anyone without heavily relying on other's opinions. That includes your hop onto the Baldrick wagon. Even now, your above post is really just an expansion of a previous post by BBM. I also could not find a single time in which you defended yourself from D2 onward. This is not hyperbole, I reread and could not find you defending yourself at all. Kirsche voted you early D2 over your Ken/LG vote, and you ignored it. I voted you earlier today and you ignored that as well. Overall you have not posted very much, and unlike other sporadic posters, you've never offered any sort of excuse for being unable to contribute. 

I find the fact that you avoid participating in conversations where you are implicated to be scummy. You've ignored almost every post where someone was suspicious of you, yet it isn't because you don't get suspected that much: hardly anybody has townread you in the entire game. You are always being considered a potential member of scumteams but you have nothing to say about that.  

I also find your lack of strong or original opinions to be scummy as well. The most impactful thing you have done in this game has been using your role and jumping to the conclusion that Marth is an SK. Most of your posts are passing comments during quiet periods, but when serious discussion is going on you are noticeably absent. The posts you do have are more summaries or expansions upon the content of others than original concepts. What bothers me especially about this is that people are accusing me of sheeping while you pretend that you aren't doing the same thing. 

I'm not certain that you're scum. But it occurs to me that while you've hardly ever been townread in this game, you have yet to be put under any notable pressure. If you were forced to defend yourself the way Baldrick and Kirsche have been, how well would you handle it? I intend to find out, if you choose not to enlighten me.

If you don't respond to this post satisfactorily, then you will become more suspicious to me than Kirsche. However, to make build up the pressure:

##Unvote

##Vote: Bartozio

[SullyMcGully]

The more Kirsche defends himself, the more cracked his defense looks. But thinking back, that's exactly how it felt with Baldrick's defense. When we added enough pressure, it was like he snapped and started throwing out every possible alternative he could find. That made me more convinced of his scumminess, and more surprised when he flipped town. Thinking back to the Kemono Friends game, the same thing happened with Arcanite and Greencapps. They both snapped when the pressure got too hard, looked like desperate scum, and ended up narrowly avoiding mislynches due to various shenanigans. Thinking about this has made me consider a few things. Is there really a difference between desperate scum and desperate town? If there is, what does it look like?

Of course I think Kirsche's latest responses have seemed scummy. I just don't want to have another mislynch like Baldrick. I could've sworn he was scum. I remember BBM saying there was a 95% chance of it. I'm honestly surprised at how things turned out, and I don't really want to bet whatever amount of trust people here place in me on Kirsche definitely being scum either. 

[SullyMcGully]

@via You continue to have a problem with my night-kill analyses (which I am now calling "NKA's"). Look, I know they look like neutral content and are therefore scummy, but to be frank, I like them. I like making them. It helps me feel like I'm finding a way to contribute to town using logic, which, for me, is a much stronger suit than intuition. Do you find my NKA's to be incorrect? If so, please show me how. But the mere fact that I make them doesn't make me anti-town. Provided they are a source of correct information, I believe they benefit town, and allow us to put a night's conclusions out in the open instead of keeping them locked up in the back of our minds. At least that's how it feels for me. So regardless of how scummy they look, you can depend on another NKA tomorrow morning. Provided I'm alive, that is. Really just because I enjoy them, and enjoy making them. And the point of playing a game is to have fun, not win.

Unless there's money involved. If there's money involved, do everything within your means to win.

[Viridianveil]

I know I should try to limit my posts as much as possible, but the game was made to be a fun experience, not one where people interrupt the game for hours at a time to point fingers. Carry on now. I'm sorry for butting in

[SullyMcGully]

Wow. Thanks for that. I'm pretty sure it's illegal, but you just made my day.

In other news, I'm not highly suspicious of Elieson. Reading back over the thread I can kinda see Shinori and Michelaar being on a team together, but I still feel like that would take qualities of patience and self-control they lack. I know Michelaar from other places around the forums, and the way he reacts to Shinori is exactly how he would react to anybody directing an angry post towards him. And while Elieson's posts so far have been pretty bad, they also don't feel very well thought-out. Any of us here can point out a post we made that wasn't very well thought-out and looked scummy as a result. Anyway, Elieson's supposed to be some sort of pro at this, so he'll probably have something better for us to go off of later.

[SullyMcGully]

@everyone: How much time do you spend per day on this game? I spend about 3 hours and I don't think my cases should be sucking as bad as they do.

[Bartozio]

@SullyMcGully

I generally don't respond to arguments against me that don't make me feel the person stating them is scummy or are just plain wrong, yes. The reason for this is that I'd rather spend the time I invest in this game to look for scum instead of defending myself. I think BBM even told me off when I did have little time and spend it defending myself near the end of D1...

a lot of cases against me are about me not having contributed a lot, which is pretty hard to argue against. I can see why it's scummy, but I can't randomly add good content when I don't have good new reasons to suspect someone.

You say I mostly post during quiet hours, which is indeed very true. This is because I live in a different timezone, so the moments I usually post are going to be different from most other people. This is also the reason why I'm usualy absent during discussions: I'm asleep. Sorry about that, it's just very inconvenient for me to sleep during daytime...

If you don't like this response, go ahead with pressuring me, but I really don't have anything else to say about this point. If you want to ask me to explain other things, go right ahead ofc.

To other people: Sorry for the pity party, I hate writing/reading these as much as the next guy, but I felt this required a response.

 

 

[SullyMcGully]

##Unvote

##Vote: Kirsche

@Bartozio That felt very safe, but you technically did answer my questions, and I can't deny anything you said, so I'll just be content with that for now. You're still my second-highest scumread behind Kirsche, though. I think you're more likely to be scum than Elieson or Marth, and I'm townreading everyone else. 

TBH, I can see why you get mislynched all of the time if that's your general approach to playing mafia, though. I can understand not having time and dealing with timezones, but frankly it irks me that you avoid suspicion via infrequent posting rather than frequent, good posts. Like, if you were mafia, how would I be able to see it in your behavior with so little to go off of? I guess there's no good answer to that question.

One thing you didn't comment on is the sheeping. Do you think you don't sheep votes frequently, or do you think that it's understandable that you do because you don't have time to make your own cases?

And what's with the last part? Do you think it was a mistake for me to ask you what I did, because I feel like my questions and your answers have cleared a few things up for the town as a whole.

[Zkirsche]

Don't have a lot of time right now rip.

Sully:

Quote

However, I never said anything about your other two points. I've never seen a good time for a hammer in this game, and agreeing with the third one would be like me outright saying I'm scum. Are you asking me for my opinion on something BBM said? Because I'm not scumreading you on either of those last two things and would disagree with those who do.

Except you criticised me for "saying everything everyone says is wrong or suspicious" saying I looked desperate. My point is the only things I'm pointing out are wrong are things that are wrong, and if you don't find the things I find people suspicious for suspicious then please elaborate why. Instead of making blanket statement to justify your vote abnd you 180. You never said what changed between my play before D2 and during it that makes me scummy now but not before.

Quote

Maybe all of that stuff about BBM is true, but there's a fair chance it isn't.

Why? Why is it wrong? Where is the fault in my reasoning? If you're gonna call my case weak then at least answer that much.

As for complexity, pointing out the subtle intent in BBM's post is a lot more intrinsic and complicated to a general statement about opportunistic voting and associative reads.

Re;others: Not really I can understand Elie's confusion because I had that impression myself and wanting to kill a possible SK is greatly understandable.

Quote

me asking him to reread sully so that he gives his own examples is scummy

This is not what you did, you just wanted me to reread Sully. You didn't want examples.

Examples include their vote on BBM D1 and their vote on Prims D1, off the top of my head. Pretty sure he was sheeping me both times except for the wrong reasons.

Quote

this implies that at this point he did not consider that hopping about and voting people who are under pressure was scummy.

How exactly? You keep stating this and I'll keep stating the opposite: I wanted his perspective. If he agreed with me on the intent: which he didn't! That'd show a link in our thought processes that would make me think he would be more townie.

I didn't post that much at the beginning of D2 because I was busy.

[Zkirsche]

I'll get to the other stuff later.

[BBM]

your Sully case also feels weird because half of it is like... asking people what they find scummy about him or crowdsourcing scummy actions of his. This: "I think the worst thing is that he seems to be also hopping onto the largest wagon at the time each time which is quite opportunistic and I can definitely see newb!scum doing that." + the Shinori interaction bit is the only part of it where you actually find him scummy and are not half-defending him. I get that your reread was focused mostly on Shinori but I'd like you to do a proper reread of Sully.

just because I didn't say "I'd like you to reread because you don't have your own examples" doesn't mean it's not implied from context. I talk about you crowdsourcing scummy actions, which is referring to you asking other people for examples.

okay, I'll drop the other point about you asking Bartozio for the scum intent in Sully hopping around. To me it read like you were asking for an explanation because you didn't agree with that part, but I guess it could also be you asking to see if it matched up with your line of thinking.

not really a fan of Sully's last few posts ;/ if you think kirsche's defence is just as likely to be desperate town as desperate scum, why are you voting for him? why does Bart simply answering your questions move him down as a scumread when you don't even like his answers for the most part?

also I probably am currently spending about that much time or more on mafia but I also spend more time/effort than most people, especially because I have a lot of free time right now. I think as you play more you should be able to come to better/more accurate conclusions with less time and with better arguments.

[BBM]

anyways I read through kirsche's posts about Shinori and there isn't very much there. He has one paragraph on D1 talking about how Shinori's play was weak and his Bartozio vote was meh, which he never really follows up on. That's partially because I don't think Shinori responds to kirsche or expands much on his Bart case, since he mostly attacks Michelaar on D2. kirsche as far as I can tell never talks about Shinori's Michelaar case though; he asks him a couple questions on D2; mostly prodding him to expand his opinion on kirsche, and then at the end of D2 says he thinks Shinori is one of the scummiest slots but says he'll have to reread him over the night phase.

I think it's a liiiittle suspicious that he talked so little about Shinori but not a lot because this is partially just kirsche's playstyle. His "real-time" posts are more directed towards his top scumread(s) and his posts about other people are mainly through ISOs of them, and only really points out stuff in real-time if it's super egregious.

[Sunwoo]

Not playing

5 hours ago, Viridianveil said:

I know I should try to limit my posts as much as possible, but the game was made to be a fun experience, not one where people interrupt the game for hours at a time to point fingers. Carry on now. I'm sorry for butting in

Do not comment on player actions in a game you are not playing in. Do not post in this thread again while the game is running Do not respond to this post, either.

Not playing

[charlie_]

I am the host and I endorse the above.

[BBM]

kirsche's thing about Sully "sheeping but for the wrong reasons" is actually kind of bad because if he's voting for different reasons it's not sheeping??? It could still be opportunistically taking advantage of a wagon, but at least wrt my case I think at the time Sully voted me kirsche was the only other person voting me, so that wasn't the case there. The Prims vote is a good example though.

However, this is kirsche talking to me about my Sully vote on D1 (albeit before he voted Prims):

"HOWEVER, all of this is irrelevant as the reason Sully voted Shinori is because of "the timing of his vote" which has rightly been called out as ridiculous. The only part of your case that kind of rings true is that he is hopping his vote around and that the initial vote justification is wack. But being wrong doesn't mean he is scum, I would like to know a bit more about the scum motivation for these two things in particular, not the misrep stuff."

this is another instance of him asking about the scum intent behind Sully vote-hopping, and this definitely reads more like "explain the scum intent here because I don't see it" as opposed to "explain the scum intent because I want to see if it matches up with my explanation". And yes, this was a while ago and lots of stuff happened after this but it increases my belief that kirsche is being inconsistent with which actions of Sully's are scummy.

anyways we have just less than 24 hours and kirsche is probably asleep? he should claim when he wakes up. just a heads up that I probably won't be here for deadline, or if I make it it'll be with like 20 minutes left or something. or if my class is super boring and I have time to check the thread in the middle of it I guess