CYL3 winners predictions

[Midnox]

You know what I’m curious about? What a brave manakete would be like

[Hilda]

1 hour ago, Midnox said:

You know what I’m curious about? What a brave manakete would be like

maybe something that doesnt look like a child? This is the main thing that kills my enthusiasm to use manakete. I never was into that LOLI thing and never will be.

This is also the reason why i never gave a **** for Nino or for anything that had those kind of LOLI looks.

Edited August 25, 2018 by Hilda

[NekoKnight]

5 hours ago, Drakhis said:

Please don't vote against someone but FOR someone. If you don't like a character, others have the right to love him. Vote for someone you like, even if he does not have a chance to win, please. Imagine someone doing the same thing with your favorite character.

While I don't think Camilla is all that well written a character, I'll agree with this post. Voting for a character you don't really support in order to sabotage a character you don't want to win is just petty. Others' not getting their favorites doesn't serve anyone, particularly if your own favorite isn't going to win as a result. Unless it's the VG, then 'vote' out of spite to your heart's content.

[Interdimensional Observer]

8 hours ago, NekoKnight said:

If I recall correctly, almost no one in Grado knew that Lyon was pulling the strings or that he was possessed by the demon king. 

You would be correct. When Vigarde died, Lyon and his court shamans initiated a coverup, hiding Vigarde's death from everyone else. Knoll, having witnessed the resurrection and then decried Lyon's smashing of the Fire Emblem, was locked up with plans to be executed to hide the truth. Presumably the rest of Lyon's scholars met the same fate for knowing the truth.

I wouldn't call this unbelievable BTW. Lyon is the Crown Prince, he had the power to affect such a thing. He alone was in the room the moment Vigarde died, and presumably this guy whom the Prologue titles the "stalwart Silent Emperor" was good at hiding the depths of his publicly known illness. It is a bit weird that the Gemstones never found out, but Knoll did say they skipped sleep and meals rushing to find a way to resurrect Vigarde, with rumors already flying that the Emperor was dead. So given a few more weeks, the truth might have broken through.

 

1 hour ago, Hilda said:

This is also the reason why i never gave a **** for Nino or for anything that had those kind of LOLI looks.

Nino is fine to me, she never felt like she was "too upfront" a loli. Innocence amid a vigilante group that is betwixt honor and criminality, her attire is quite tame too. I wouldn't necessarily say all lolis are well-written characters, but nor are all shotas, old men, bishies, young adult women and etc..

I'll agree we could use more non-loli dragons though. We need Goldoa in yesterday, not a loli in sight there, and Ena is cute in her own, different way.

 

2 hours ago, Midnox said:

You know what I’m curious about? What a brave manakete would be like

Just amp up the dragon's appearance and the breath, bigger and with more flashiness. Tiki goes from Divine Dragon, to Heaven-and-Earth-Hypernova-Naga-Exceed-Hope-of-Ylisse-and-Valm-Ascended-God-Dragon, with Aethereal-Concentrated-Soulstream-Essencerapture-Annihilation Breath.

[Silverly]

So, if I had my way, my picks would be Sumia/Katarina for the girls and Joshua/Michalis for the guys. That will never happen.  Anyways, on to some actual predictions.

Men

 Marth is a lock hand down. He’s not losing a spot for a third time.

Chrom should be pretty likely. He’s in Smash which is a popularity booster for sure (ask Roy), and he’s still pretty popular in Japan. It’d be pretty weird seeing two Falchion wielders winning though.

Alm is iffy. SoV has really slowed down since last year and isn’t spanking new now. The one thing making me think Alm still has something going for him is that he’s a great unit now, which I actually feel is a factor in Heroes. Still, I feel the jury is out on him.

Reinhardt I actually expect to drop. He made it up simply for being an oppressive unit and while he’s still very good, he’s no longer unrivaled like he was for most of 2017. Many more units have shown to be dominating, though it’s more defined by the classes of the character than the characters themselves these days. Anyways, I think he’ll make like Dorcas as drop a bit.

Eliwood actually has a shot. His companions have already made it in, and seeing how FE7 is one of the more popular games, I could see old school voters resorting to him.

For one reason or another, I feel Alfonse could be a possibility. He had a fairly impressive placement in 19th place, and I think he’s currently the most used of the trio. The fanbase seems to be warming up to him too. I foresee a climb at a least.

Robin is a possibility. He’s still holding up thanks to Smash and his Grima incarnation is a very popular unit to use. 

Women

Eirika is a likely candidate. Unlike the men who have Marth as shoe-in, the ladies have no such guarantee. Eirika should get some love from the veterans.

I won’t be surprised if Camilla got in. She’s sort of the quintessential fanservice character and still remains one of the most popular characters from Fates. It’s possible she’ll suffer from alt fatigue and result in some slipping, but I believe she has a chance to regain her footing as well.

Azura is held back due to competing with Camilla as a Fates rep, and her many alts haven’t really helped her case either. The same goes for Corrin, who oddly is slipping despite her representation in Smash and Warriors.

Loki could definitely be a dark horse. The same could be said for the Muspell sisters. Oddly though, Fjorm’s reception was lukewarm in CYL2, as was Sharena’s.

Nino should slip. Memes can only get you so far. Lute says hi.

Micaiah is a maybe. I always thought she was held back due to her somewhat to her being the poster girl for the less popular Tellius game as well as her somewhat dull attire. Micaiah does have a dedicated following, but whether they can carry her is up in the air.

Ayra should make it to the top 20 at least, maybe even the top 10. She climbed quite a bit last time, and she still has legs even after being out for nearly a year. Karla isn’t quite as notorious due to still being relatively new, but she’ll at least see a boost of some kind.

Lilina actually had a boost last CYL, and I think she’ll definitely have a shot to go even further as an alternative GBA pick. 

So, on gut feeling, I feel the make picks will be Marth and Chrom, while the females have Eirika and Loki. I don’t think much will drastically change five or so months from now, so I’m fairly confident with these picks.

Edited August 26, 2018 by SilvertheShadow

[Lemmy]

It seems weird how I have no faith in Eliwood despite acknowledging that his friends and son are exceptionally popular

[Vaximillian]

51 minutes ago, SilvertheShadow said:

Oddly though, Fjorm’s reception was lukewarm in CYL2, as was Sharena’s.

Not receiving character development since your introduction can do that to you.

[Midnox]

4 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

Not receiving character development since your introduction can do that to you.

I wonder if vanilla Gunntra's death would make a surge in popularity instead? Hashtag justice for Gunntra and everything  XD. It helps that she's one of the deadliest green mages

[NekoKnight]

14 minutes ago, Midnox said:

It helps that she's one of the deadest green mages

FTFY
Sorry

I doubt Gunnthra will get much more love at this point. She's as underwritten as Fjorm and dies before really doing anything in the plot. All the females on team Askr/Nifl are pretty shallow. 

 

[Thane]

3 hours ago, Vaximillian said:

Not receiving character development since your introduction can do that to you.

Hey that's not true, Anna pointed out that Fjorm was angry at Surtr!

Anyway, the most powerful units or the characters who appear the most in the series are safe bets. Marth has a nice buff niche, is in Smash and is the face of the series, so I do believe he'll do well. Eirika surprised me a lot this year, and I wonder if that popularity will hold; what made people want to vote for her?

[Zangetsu]

14 hours ago, Drakhis said:

Please don't vote against someone but FOR someone. If you don't like a character, others have the right to love him. Vote for someone you like, even if he does not have a chance to win, please. Imagine someone doing the same thing with your favorite character.

 

8 hours ago, NekoKnight said:

While I don't think Camilla is all that well written a character, I'll agree with this post. Voting for a character you don't really support in order to sabotage a character you don't want to win is just petty. Others' not getting their favorites doesn't serve anyone, particularly if your own favorite isn't going to win as a result. Unless it's the VG, then 'vote' out of spite to your heart's content.

Preach brothers, your philosophy must been spread among the community.

 

6 hours ago, Lemmy said:

It seems weird how I have no faith in Eliwood despite acknowledging that his friends and son are exceptionally popular

That's hurts more than it should. I'll always thought out of all the lords in the franchise, Eliwood is the most under rated. Maybe his luck will turn around?

 

Props to @SilvertheShadow for actually analyzing & predicting the next winners instead of thinly veiled insulting character he doesn't like.

[TheWill]

11 hours ago, SilvertheShadow said:

Men

Chrom should be pretty likely. He’s in Smash which is a popularity booster for sure (ask Roy), and he’s still pretty popular in Japan. It’d be pretty weird seeing two Falchion wielders winning though.

Robin is a possibility. He’s still holding up thanks to Smash and his Grima incarnation is a very popular unit to use. 

If you don't mind me asking, can you elaborate on the logic behind "being in Smash" will perpetuate a characters votes?

Being in Smash Bros didn't help either Robin get anymore votes, and in fact, Corrin's position dropped. The winners of CYL2 were completely unrelated to Smash Bros. and to attribute Lucina and Ike's wins in the original CYL to Smash Bros is a narrow perspective. Even putting Smash Bros. aside, Ike and Lucina were always some of the series most popular characters. The only real argument towards Smash Bros. causing an increase in popularity is Roy, and whilst he is definitely a clear example of Smash Bros. popularizing a character, he's the exception and not the rule.

Chrom's popularity has only dropped since CYL1, the better question - in my opinion - isn't whether Smash Bros. will popularize Chrom, but whether Alm or Reinhardt will have a significant drop in support since CYL2. I could see the latter definitely happening.

Edited August 26, 2018 by SlipperySlippy

[Silverly]

14 minutes ago, SlipperySlippy said:

If you don't mind me asking, can you elaborate on the logic behind "being in Smash" will perpetuate a characters votes?

Being in Smash Bros didn't help either Robin get anymore votes, and in fact, Corrin's position dropped. The winners of CYL2 were completely unrelated to Smash Bros. and to attribute Lucina and Ike's wins in the original CYL to Smash Bros is a narrow perspective. Even putting Smash Bros. aside, Ike and Lucina were always some of the series most popular characters. The only real argument towards Smash Bros. causing an increase in popularity is Roy, and whilst he is definitely a clear example of Smash Bros. popularizing a character, he's the exception and not the rule.

Chrom's popularity has only dropped since CYL1, the better question - in my opinion - isn't whether Smash Bros. will popularize Chrom, but whether Alm or Reinhardt will have a significant drop in support since CYL2. I could see the latter definitely happening.

I’m not saying Chrom will excel simply because of Smash, but I do think it’ll help to a degree. Just consider the timing alone. The game is supposed to come in December and by the time CYL3 comes out Smash will still be fairly hot. Its just so favorable. Smash on its own isn’t a huge boon, but it nonetheless helps mildly among the more casual players. Ike and Lucina were always popular, I’ll give you that. However, male Robin and female Corrin actually held up pretty well despite their perceived mediocrity in FEH and having several alts. Now their counterparts weren’t so lucky; female Robin barely the top 20 while male Corrin dealt with the embarrassment of not even making the top 20 in the first CYL, and the second time around I believe he was in the 70s. Yikes. 

It’s not my main argument though. Chrom fell last time since he was pretty irrelevant in FEH during the first year, as well as a possible victim of alt excess. I do think Chrom was treated more kindly this year, and I still hold that Alm and Reindhardt will drop for their respective reasons.

[Lemmy]

is everyone forgetting that Marth is a Smash Bros character in the west?

 

[Silverly]

1 minute ago, Lemmy said:

is everyone forgetting that Marth is a Smash Bros character in the west?

 

Nope. I remembered quite well. I just never mentioned it because it was irrelevant due to Marth being in 1st place regardless.

[Othin]

Looking at how the CYL2 top scorers compare to their CYL1 vote counts:

1. Hector: 145%
2. Celica: 1,529%
3. Ephraim: 208%
4. Veronica: N/A
5. FE1 Marth: 183%
6. Camilla: 109%
7. Eirika: 167%
8. Azura: 144%
9. Alm: 981%
10. Loki: N/A
11. Reinhardt: 11,628%
12. Nino: 198%
13. Micaiah: 115%
14. f!Corrin: 71%
15. Chrom: 57%
16. Tharja: 42%

Some of these are more reliable predictors of future success than others. Loki was newly introduced, while Reinhardt and Alm were newly defined for most people, so who knows how they might change.

Marth and Eirika look pretty solid to me. They both basically got screwed out of CYL2 spots for reasons that should be less of an issue next time, and they got big increases in support that seem likely to continue.

Camilla seems to be stagnating. Not as much as Tharja, but I don't see her keeping up, and Loki could leech away a lot of her votes. I think Eirika and Loki have pretty high odds of being the two female winners, but Azura and Nino are also strong contenders and could replace either of them. Anyone else would be fighting an uphill battle. Laegjarn is new enough to not feature in CYL2, but I don't see her winning a CYL with Loki involved. Loki will place higher than her, and I don't think they can both win. She's also competing with Laevatein, who placed 29th.

Marth looks like the safest bet, even more than Eirika (barring him getting an honorary CYL2 as the upcoming legendary or something), but the other male winner is a lot less clear. Could be Alm or Reinhardt, but I don't know if they'll keep increasing in popularity. May depend on if Alm gets an alt in the meantime. With or without another Alm alt, Reinhardt seems less likely. Could also be someone not on this list, like Bruno, Surtr, Helbindi, or Hrid.

Looks like anyone below the top 12 would need a really big surge of popularity to make it in. Right now, that probably means being a male OC. Non-OCs are unlikely to change as much this time as Celica/Alm/Reinhardt did.

[Humanoid]

It's official then, Reinhardt will win CYL3 with 1,852,456 votes.

[Poimagic]

I’d expect Reinhardt, Alm, or Marth to win on the boys side, and either Loki, Camilla, Nino, or Eirika to win on the girls side

[Othin]

Hmm, thinking about it again: I was dismissive of Chrom at first because of how far he dropped, but he'll be in Smash Ultimate, which will release shortly before CYL3. That could give him the kind of surge he needs to get back in the running.

[Midnox]

3 hours ago, SlipperySlippy said:

If you don't mind me asking, can you elaborate on the logic behind "being in Smash" will perpetuate a characters votes?

Being in Smash Bros didn't help either Robin get anymore votes, and in fact, Corrin's position dropped. The winners of CYL2 were completely unrelated to Smash Bros. and to attribute Lucina and Ike's wins in the original CYL to Smash Bros is a narrow perspective. Even putting Smash Bros. aside, Ike and Lucina were always some of the series most popular characters. The only real argument towards Smash Bros. causing an increase in popularity is Roy, and whilst he is definitely a clear example of Smash Bros. popularizing a character, he's the exception and not the rule.

Chrom's popularity has only dropped since CYL1, the better question - in my opinion - isn't whether Smash Bros. will popularize Chrom, but whether Alm or Reinhardt will have a significant drop in support since CYL2. I could see the latter definitely happening.

I wouldn't underestimate Smash's influence over FE if I where you. God knows how long would have taken to get a FE in these parts if not where for Marth and Roy in Melee, if any at all. The reason for Robin and Corrin's losing support after Smash 4 could be because Smash isn't for portables, plus few got a WIIU, AND it's considered the weakest Smash..... and Corrin was DLC XD. I don't see Ultimate falling on the same trap, plus it's likely for it to be still fresh by the time CYL3 comes, so I expect at least Robin and Chrom to get a rise. On the ladies side is more complicated, as the competition is far stronger. I don't think it'll change much between this year's finalists, plus I think Laventain and Laegjarn will join the party

[Othin]

3 hours ago, SlipperySlippy said:

If you don't mind me asking, can you elaborate on the logic behind "being in Smash" will perpetuate a characters votes?

Being in Smash Bros didn't help either Robin get anymore votes, and in fact, Corrin's position dropped. The winners of CYL2 were completely unrelated to Smash Bros. and to attribute Lucina and Ike's wins in the original CYL to Smash Bros is a narrow perspective. Even putting Smash Bros. aside, Ike and Lucina were always some of the series most popular characters. The only real argument towards Smash Bros. causing an increase in popularity is Roy, and whilst he is definitely a clear example of Smash Bros. popularizing a character, he's the exception and not the rule.

Chrom's popularity has only dropped since CYL1, the better question - in my opinion - isn't whether Smash Bros. will popularize Chrom, but whether Alm or Reinhardt will have a significant drop in support since CYL2. I could see the latter definitely happening.

Changes from CYL1 to CYL2 don't have anything to do with Smash, because there was no new Smash content during that time. CYL2 to CYL3 will be another story.

[TheWill]

11 hours ago, Othin said:

Changes from CYL1 to CYL2 don't have anything to do with Smash, because there was no new Smash content during that time. CYL2 to CYL3 will be another story.

So essentially... Smash Bros. only has an effect when it's relevant or the characters? Your reasoning is understandable and logical, but I'm not convinced.

If anything, I'd imagine Chrom's most likely chance of winning is due to the general lack of competitiveness on the male side. Whether the new Marth alt will deter voters... it's likely. Marth's position was definitely propelled forward due to how neglected his character was treated despite being the first lord of the franchise (similar to Leif being the only lord yet to be added caused his position to skyrocket). I can see Reinhardt and Alm falling off for their own reasons, although Alm may have the backing of being "ignored by IS", as well. 

11 hours ago, Midnox said:

I wouldn't underestimate Smash's influence over FE if I where you. God knows how long would have taken to get a FE in these parts if not where for Marth and Roy in Melee, if any at all. The reason for Robin and Corrin's losing support after Smash 4 could be because Smash isn't for portables, plus few got a WIIU, AND it's considered the weakest Smash..... and Corrin was DLC XD. I don't see Ultimate falling on the same trap, plus it's likely for it to be still fresh by the time CYL3 comes, so I expect at least Robin and Chrom to get a rise. On the ladies side is more complicated, as the competition is far stronger. I don't think it'll change much between this year's finalists, plus I think Laventain and Laegjarn will join the party

I think it's a fair assessment given previous trends from the last two CYL polls.

I also don't think Corrin's position decrease was remotely related to them being a DLC character in Smash Bros. Corrin has... a lot of other explanations as to why her popularity dropped. 

Chrom suffers from similar issues to Eliwood, being a relatively overshadowed character in his own game, an over-prevalence of alts and in general being a character with mediocre popularity in comparison to other Fire Emblem characters. I can see Smash Ultimate having a recency bias effect that may alleviate Chrom's position, but it doesn't change the core reasons of why his popularity dropped in the first place. Similarly, Lucina voters didn't migrate towards Chrom last CYL, unlike Lyn/Ike voters who definitely shifted towards Hector and Ephraim. Alm and Eirika fall under similar character archetypes, so it would make sense for Celica/Hector/Ephraim voters to move towards these two. 

In the end though, popularity is in a precarious state. If Choose Your Legends 3 occurs around the same time as this years, it'll be in a one-month timeframe of Smash Ultimate, so the "recency bias" will be in full-effect at this time.

[Lord-Zero]

With Legendary Marth being a thing now, the “need” for a “Brave” Marth alt will probably drop to some degree. 

Edited August 27, 2018 by Lord-Zero

[DefyingFates]

On 23/08/2018 at 9:34 PM, silveraura25 said:

Eirika in Lyon's outfit

I didn't realise I wanted this.

But yes, Eirika's my wish for CYL3, especially since Sacred Memories sabotaged her chances in CYL2.

And while I'm sure Camilla will place highly, I'll be salty if she does considering Camilla Emblem is a thing with good colour AND Def/Res coverage - what more do y'alls want? (Eh, even if her placement drops I'm expecting her "fanbase" to flock to Loki anyway - leaving just the ones who like the parts of Camilla's character that weren't transplanted onto Loki as well.)

As for the other female; I'd like Nino to win, but since that's unlikely I wouldn't mind Laegjarn taking the #2 slot.

For the guys I'd like Eliwood (for obvious reasons) and Lyon to win, but Marth is probably gonna win through sheer CYL2-salt alone. Oh, Helbindi memeing his way to a win would be interesting too, since he seems fairly popular (though Hrid may have stolen his thunder).

[Vaximillian]

20 hours ago, SlipperySlippy said:

Even putting Smash Bros. aside, Ike and Lucina were always some of the series most popular characters.

Smash and Smash memery is why Ike is one of the series’ most popular characters.