CYL3 winners predictions

[Othin]

6 hours ago, SlipperySlippy said:

So essentially... Smash Bros. only has an effect when it's relevant or the characters? Your reasoning is understandable and logical, but I'm not convinced.

If anything, I'd imagine Chrom's most likely chance of winning is due to the general lack of competitiveness on the male side. Whether the new Marth alt will deter voters... it's likely. Marth's position was definitely propelled forward due to how neglected his character was treated despite being the first lord of the franchise (similar to Leif being the only lord yet to be added caused his position to skyrocket). I can see Reinhardt and Alm falling off for their own reasons, although Alm may have the backing of being "ignored by IS", as well. 

It's not that Smash didn't have an effect on CYL2, it's that it didn't have any more effect than CYL1, so it's not a reason for popularity to increase from CYL1 to CYL2 because any popularity it granted would have already shown up in CYL1. In fact, it'd make sense for it to have less effect on CYL2 than CYL1, because Smash is no longer in as recent memory, so characters whose CYL1 popularity was boosted by Smash would be expected to have some of that popularity fade by CYL2, unless they had some other reason to go up (like Marth).

I'm not sure what impact legendary Marth will have on CYL3. On the one hand, he doesn't feel neglected anymore, having both a legendary and a seasonal version. On the other hand, a bunch of other high-placing CYL characters (Ike, Lyn, Lucina, Roy, Hector, Ephraim, Celica, Camilla, Reinhardt, Nino, Micaiah, Chrom, Tharja, Robin, Takumi, Cordelia) have also gotten one or more non-CYL alts in the 7 months since CYL2. So it more serves to help him keep pace with them rather than making up for his "stolen" CYL alt.

Regarding Alm: right now, the only lords without alts are Alm, Sigurd, Seliph, and Leif. Alm is certainly much more well known than the other three right now, due to his remake. So I do think he's in a position where if he doesn't get an alt before CYL3, he could easily get an increase in support based on perceived neglect. I'm not sure he could top Marth, though, and I think Chrom and Reinhardt are even less likely to. But OCs can be unpredictable, so I could see Marth losing to a pair like Alm/Bruno.

[Midnox]

10 hours ago, SlipperySlippy said:

So essentially... Smash Bros. only has an effect when it's relevant or the characters? Your reasoning is understandable and logical, but I'm not convinced.

If anything, I'd imagine Chrom's most likely chance of winning is due to the general lack of competitiveness on the male side. Whether the new Marth alt will deter voters... it's likely. Marth's position was definitely propelled forward due to how neglected his character was treated despite being the first lord of the franchise (similar to Leif being the only lord yet to be added caused his position to skyrocket). I can see Reinhardt and Alm falling off for their own reasons, although Alm may have the backing of being "ignored by IS", as well. 

I think it's a fair assessment given previous trends from the last two CYL polls.

I also don't think Corrin's position decrease was remotely related to them being a DLC character in Smash Bros. Corrin has... a lot of other explanations as to why her popularity dropped. 

Chrom suffers from similar issues to Eliwood, being a relatively overshadowed character in his own game, an over-prevalence of alts and in general being a character with mediocre popularity in comparison to other Fire Emblem characters. I can see Smash Ultimate having a recency bias effect that may alleviate Chrom's position, but it doesn't change the core reasons of why his popularity dropped in the first place. Similarly, Lucina voters didn't migrate towards Chrom last CYL, unlike Lyn/Ike voters who definitely shifted towards Hector and Ephraim. Alm and Eirika fall under similar character archetypes, so it would make sense for Celica/Hector/Ephraim voters to move towards these two. 

In the end though, popularity is in a precarious state. If Choose Your Legends 3 occurs around the same time as this years, it'll be in a one-month timeframe of Smash Ultimate, so the "recency bias" will be in full-effect at this time.

Nah, what I meant with Corrin’s case as a DLC is that they where even less accessible in a Smash not many bought. And while it is true that Chrom and Robin face more problems than the lack of a decent Smash presence, it’s likely that Ultimate could turn the tables in their favor, for Male Robin at least.... unless IS will put all playable FE in Smash as alts with cosplays of other fellow Nintendo characters this December XD. If Eirika is anything to go by, it’ll doom their chances if that where to happen

However, for the dudes, is either Robin or Chrom, as I think Marth won’t be losing this time

Edited August 27, 2018 by Midnox

[TheWill]

6 hours ago, Vaximillian said:

Smash and Smash memery is why Ike is one of the series’ most popular characters.

It's disingenuous to label Ike's popularity as a result of Smash Bros.

Ike was always the most popular male character in the Fire Emblem franchise, regardless of Smash Bros. The popularity poll held in 2015 by Famitsu (prior to Brawl's release) parroted Ike's popularity as the franchises most popular character. The sample is much smaller and Japanese only, but Ike being the most popular character is... pretty much commonplace since the public forums discussed these topics. Ike always distinguished himself from other Fire Emblem protagonists simply due to his lack of royal heritage and being placed in a disadvantaged position within the story, automatically placing him in a more relatable and grounded perspective than all other lords to come before him.

Considering it's very obvious that Lyn and Lucina's placements in the poll were completely unrelated to Smash Bros: Why would you disregard Ike's placement as a result of Smash Bros? Seems like hindsight bias, if anything. I'll continue the discussion on Ike's popularity below.

The only clear case of Smash Bros. affecting a characters popularity is Roy, who is often disregarded by the fanbase at large.

5 hours ago, Othin said:

IIn fact, it'd make sense for it to have less effect on CYL2 than CYL1, because Smash is no longer in as recent memory, so characters whose CYL1 popularity was boosted by Smash would be expected to have some of that popularity fade by CYL2, unless they had some other reason to go up (like Marth).

As I said earlier, the only clear example of a character's popularity being boosted by Smash Bros is Roy. 

Lucina was clearly riding off of the 'golden age' of Awakening's popularity and was easily one of the series most popular characters, bar none. Smash Bros seems like a non-factor for her placement.

Lyn's role as an assist trophy is insignificant and definitely didn't garner her any significant portion of votes (if any). Her win is most definitely due to her being the original character that introduced players to the franchise.

Ike, as I said above, was always the series most popular male character. He always distinguished himself from other series protagonists, this again, is completely unrelated to Smash Bros. There could be an argument to be made that due to Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn's poor sales, it's unlikely that Ike could reasonably gain that amount of support in his votes... but honestly, that's still a weak argument. Robin, Corrin and Marth still scored poorly (relative to the characters who won the actual poll) even though they had the supposed "backing of Smash Bros. fans". In the end, we have Hector, Chrom and Ephraim who are all (at the time of the poll) completely unrelated to Smash Bros. 

It just seems... so artificial. If that was Hector instead of Ike on Smash Bros. roster, people would be making the exact same argument: "Hector's popular because of Smash Bros.!" Even though we can see clearly, Hector's popularity is completely unrelated to Smash. Furthermore, I don't see the merit in the argument considering the character that gained the most support in either poll has an insignificant role in Smash Bros. and many other characters completely unrelated to Smash Bros. still scored higher than the characters who were promoted in Smash Bros. The predominant "voter base" of CYL is "Fire Emblem fans", not "Smash Bros. fans". Not that a person can't be both, but it seems more practical to vote based on a characters role in "Fire Emblem", however this may just be my bias since I tend to vote towards characters that I enjoy thanks to their role within their respective games.

In my opnion, there are just logical fallacies in generalized statements like "Ike won because of the backing of Smash Bros. fans!" that make it difficult for me to agree with. Alternatively: people voted for Ike for his endearing story of becoming something from nothing but a legacy left behind by his father.

1 hour ago, Midnox said:

Nah, what I meant with Corrin’s case as a DLC is that they where even less accessible in a Smash not many bought. And while it is true that Chrom and Robin face more problems than the lack of a decent Smash presence, it’s likely that Ultimate could turn the tables in their favor, for Male Robin at least.... unless IS will put all playable FE in Smash as alts with cosplays of other fellow Nintendo characters this December XD. If Eirika is anything to go by, it’ll doom their chances if that where to happen

However, for the dudes, is either Robin or Chrom, as I think Marth won’t be losing this time

In retrospect, Corrin and Marth being the most commonly played characters in Smash Bros. Wii U (for their competitive viability) didn't help either score higher in either CYL.

Ultimately, I do believe Corrin's drop in popularity is simply due to a mix of critical writing flaws apparent in both her character arc and the overarching storyline throughout Fates, as well as a... significant portion of positive reception towards her being due to her design (which naturally explains why male Corrin is often ignored in comparison). Popularity derivative of appearance naturally decreases over time in comparison to people who are attached to other (or multiple) aspects characters for their strong characterization, endearing storyline, interactions with others and so forth. 

Edit: I don't want people to misinterpret my statements about character popularity as the only reason for their success in CYL. Lucina didn't only win because of the 'golden age revival' phase Awakening initiated, she's obviously an endearing character with one of the better plotlines throughout Awakening. Similarly, nostlagia isn't the only reason Lyn one, as being a strong female lead (in relation to characterization), definitely propels her populairyt. 

Edited August 27, 2018 by SlipperySlippy

[Vaximillian]

@SlipperySlippy: I didn’t say Smash was the reason for Ike’s popularity. I said Smash was a reason for Ike’s popularity.

And, as you yourself remarked, that poll was for Japan only, and everyone knows the Tellius dilogy wasn’t a smash hit in the West.

Oh, and that poll having been held in 2015 is irrelevant when Ike got added to Smash in 2008.

[Othin]

3 minutes ago, SlipperySlippy said:

It's disingenuous to label Ike's popularity as a result of Smash Bros.

Ike was always the most popular male character in the Fire Emblem franchise, regardless of Smash Bros. The popularity poll held in 2015 by Famitsu (prior to Brawl's release) parroted Ike's popularity as the franchises most popular character. The sample is much smaller and Japanese only, but Ike being the most popular character is... pretty much commonplace since the public forums discussed these topics. Ike always distinguished himself from other Fire Emblem protagonists simply due to his lack of royal heritage and being placed in a disadvantaged position within the story, automatically placing him in a more relatable and grounded perspective than all other lords to come before him.

Considering it's very obvious that Lyn and Lucina's placements in the poll were completely unrelated to Smash Bros: Why would you disregard Ike's placement as a result of Smash Bros? Seems like hindsight bias, if anything. I'll continue the discussion on Ike's popularity below.

The only clear case of Smash Bros. affecting a characters popularity is Roy, who is often disregarded by the fanbase at large.

As I said earlier, the only clear example of a character's popularity being boosted by Smash Bros is Roy. 

Lucina was clearly riding off of the 'golden age' of Awakening's popularity and was easily one of the series most popular characters, bar none. Smash Bros seems like a non-factor for her placement.

Lyn's role as an assist trophy is insignificant and definitely didn't garner her any significant portion of votes (if any). Her win is most definitely due to her being the original character that introduced players to the franchise.

Ike, as I said above, was always the series most popular male character. He always distinguished himself from other series protagonists, this again, is completely unrelated to Smash Bros. There could be an argument to be made that due to Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn's poor sales, it's unlikely that Ike could reasonably gain that amount of support in his votes... but honestly, that's still a weak argument. Robin, Corrin and Marth still scored poorly (relative to the characters who won the actual poll) even though they had the supposed "backing of Smash Bros. fans". In the end, we have Hector, Chrom and Ephraim who are all (at the time of the poll) completely unrelated to Smash Bros. 

It just seems... so artificial. If that was Hector instead of Ike on Smash Bros. roster, people would be making the exact same argument: "Hector's popular because of Smash Bros.!" Even though we can see clearly, Hector's popularity is completely unrelated to Smash. Furthermore, I don't see the merit in the argument considering the character that gained the most support in either poll has an insignificant role in Smash Bros. and many other characters completely unrelated to Smash Bros. still scored higher than the characters who were promoted in Smash Bros. The predominant "voter base" of CYL is "Fire Emblem fans", not "Smash Bros. fans". Not that a person can't be both, but it seems more practical to vote based on a characters role in "Fire Emblem", however this may just be my bias since I tend to vote towards characters that I enjoy thanks to their role within their respective games.

In my opnion, there are just logical fallacies in generalized statements like "Ike won because of the backing of Smash Bros. fans!" that make it difficult for me to agree with. Alternatively: people voted for Ike for his endearing story of becoming something from nothing but a legacy left behind by his father.

In retrospect, Corrin and Marth being the most commonly played characters in Smash Bros. Wii U (for their competitive viability) didn't help either score higher in either CYL.

Ultimately, I do believe Corrin's drop in popularity is simply due to a mix of critical writing flaws apparent in both her character arc and the overarching storyline throughout Fates, as well as a... significant portion of positive reception towards her being due to her design (which naturally explains why male Corrin is often ignored in comparison). Popularity derivative of appearance naturally decreases over time in comparison to people who are attached to other (or multiple) aspects characters for their strong characterization, endearing storyline, interactions with others and so forth. 

I don't think you understand how relative comparisons work.

"Corrin and Marth being common in Smash didn't help either score higher in either CYL" isn't something you can say unless you know how well they would have scored if they weren't in Smash. You can't just compare to other characters who may have been more popular for other reasons and act like that answers it. Marth losing to Hector and Ephraim despite his presence in Smash doesn't mean Smash didn't help him.

(And let's not forget that if we combine Marth's versions, he got several thousand more votes than Ephraim both times, beating Ephraim by a considerably larger gap than the one he lost to Hector. He also got more votes than Chrom both times. So no, Marth did not "score poorly" relative to any of them, on either poll.)

Would Ike still have won CYL1 without being in Smash? Maybe. But I think it's a pretty safe bet that he would have lost some number of votes. How many? Hard to say. We won't really have a reference point until we see how Chrom scores in CYL3.

[Midnox]

1 hour ago, SlipperySlippy said:

It's disingenuous to label Ike's popularity as a result of Smash Bros.

Ike was always the most popular male character in the Fire Emblem franchise, regardless of Smash Bros. The popularity poll held in 2015 by Famitsu (prior to Brawl's release) parroted Ike's popularity as the franchises most popular character. The sample is much smaller and Japanese only, but Ike being the most popular character is... pretty much commonplace since the public forums discussed these topics. Ike always distinguished himself from other Fire Emblem protagonists simply due to his lack of royal heritage and being placed in a disadvantaged position within the story, automatically placing him in a more relatable and grounded perspective than all other lords to come before him.

Considering it's very obvious that Lyn and Lucina's placements in the poll were completely unrelated to Smash Bros: Why would you disregard Ike's placement as a result of Smash Bros? Seems like hindsight bias, if anything. I'll continue the discussion on Ike's popularity below.

The only clear case of Smash Bros. affecting a characters popularity is Roy, who is often disregarded by the fanbase at large.

As I said earlier, the only clear example of a character's popularity being boosted by Smash Bros is Roy. 

Lucina was clearly riding off of the 'golden age' of Awakening's popularity and was easily one of the series most popular characters, bar none. Smash Bros seems like a non-factor for her placement.

Lyn's role as an assist trophy is insignificant and definitely didn't garner her any significant portion of votes (if any). Her win is most definitely due to her being the original character that introduced players to the franchise.

Ike, as I said above, was always the series most popular male character. He always distinguished himself from other series protagonists, this again, is completely unrelated to Smash Bros. There could be an argument to be made that due to Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn's poor sales, it's unlikely that Ike could reasonably gain that amount of support in his votes... but honestly, that's still a weak argument. Robin, Corrin and Marth still scored poorly (relative to the characters who won the actual poll) even though they had the supposed "backing of Smash Bros. fans". In the end, we have Hector, Chrom and Ephraim who are all (at the time of the poll) completely unrelated to Smash Bros. 

It just seems... so artificial. If that was Hector instead of Ike on Smash Bros. roster, people would be making the exact same argument: "Hector's popular because of Smash Bros.!" Even though we can see clearly, Hector's popularity is completely unrelated to Smash. Furthermore, I don't see the merit in the argument considering the character that gained the most support in either poll has an insignificant role in Smash Bros. and many other characters completely unrelated to Smash Bros. still scored higher than the characters who were promoted in Smash Bros. The predominant "voter base" of CYL is "Fire Emblem fans", not "Smash Bros. fans". Not that a person can't be both, but it seems more practical to vote based on a characters role in "Fire Emblem", however this may just be my bias since I tend to vote towards characters that I enjoy thanks to their role within their respective games.

In my opnion, there are just logical fallacies in generalized statements like "Ike won because of the backing of Smash Bros. fans!" that make it difficult for me to agree with. Alternatively: people voted for Ike for his endearing story of becoming something from nothing but a legacy left behind by his father.

In retrospect, Corrin and Marth being the most commonly played characters in Smash Bros. Wii U (for their competitive viability) didn't help either score higher in either CYL.

Ultimately, I do believe Corrin's drop in popularity is simply due to a mix of critical writing flaws apparent in both her character arc and the overarching storyline throughout Fates, as well as a... significant portion of positive reception towards her being due to her design (which naturally explains why male Corrin is often ignored in comparison). Popularity derivative of appearance naturally decreases over time in comparison to people who are attached to other (or multiple) aspects characters for their strong characterization, endearing storyline, interactions with others and so forth. 

Edit: I don't want people to misinterpret my statements about character popularity as the only reason for their success in CYL. Lucina didn't only win because of the 'golden age revival' phase Awakening initiated, she's obviously an endearing character with one of the better plotlines throughout Awakening. Similarly, nostlagia isn't the only reason Lyn one, as being a strong female lead (in relation to characterization), definitely propels her populairyt. 

You wrote it: Smash Bros WiiU, probably the least popular and played of the Smash series, not to mention Marth lost because of some split votes bullshit

[Fabulously Olivier]

Characters I expect to win:

Marth

Reinhardt

Camilla

Laegjarn

 

Characters I want to win (but don't necessarily expect to):

Bruno/Zacharias

Robin (M)

Hinoka

Micaiah

Edited August 27, 2018 by Etheus

[DefyingFates]

1 hour ago, Etheus said:

Reinhardt

Not gonna lie, a part of me wants to see this happen simply for the memes...and the knowledge that the community meme'd a character into CYL.

[Fabulously Olivier]

2 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

Not gonna lie, a part of me wants to see this happen simply for the memes...and the knowledge that the community meme'd a character into CYL.

I'd also be happy with it. Reinhardt gets a pass from me in that he's actually a well-written character. 

[Midnox]

28 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

Not gonna lie, a part of me wants to see this happen simply for the memes...and the knowledge that the community meme'd a character into CYL.

I just wanna see how more of a monster his brave version can become. Sadly, I’m expecting his memetic game will wane by the time CYL comes, as there’s one spot for the males, unless Marth loses again

Edited August 27, 2018 by Midnox

[Lord-Zero]

People are a little too confident about Shadow Dragon Marth winning and way too confident about Alm. In Marth’s case, Legendary Marth will certainly deter some votes, especially from the Japanese since Legendary FE3 Marth is basically everything they wanted. Will they jump ship to SD Marth? Maybe but I can see many of them jumping ship to other characters instead. On Alm’s side, in the case that he manages to win, he’ll probably get Hidari again and looking at what happened with B!Celica’s art and the fact that SoV’s armor design is basically an upgrade of his Gaiden armor (Celica was the one with a drastic change), I’d rather see someone else instead of Hidari phoning a design again. There’s also the fact that the novelty factor Alm had is nearly vanished. Smash is a double-edged sword and Chrom has a few alts under his belt already, it could really go either way. As for others, you could expect a rise from Eliwood, Leif, Sigurd and Seliph. 

As for the females...

Eirika already took Gleipnir so unless she swipes Excalibur next, she’d probably end up with an original weapon. I don’t see the many of the Ephraim fans jumping ship to his sister. Then  we have characters like Tharja, Cordelia and Camilla whose popularity have declined. The OCs could try to take this one but I’d much rather have Nino or Caeda take it. 

 

Edited August 27, 2018 by Lord-Zero

[Othin]

22 minutes ago, Lord-Zero said:

People are a little too confident about Shadow Dragon Marth winning and way too confident about Alm. In Marth’s case, Legendary Marth will certainly deter some votes, especially from the Japanese since Legendary FE3 Marth is basically everything they wanted. Will they jump ship to SD Marth? Maybe but I can see many of them jumping ship to other characters instead. On Alm’s side, in the case that he manages to win, he’ll probably get Hidari again and looking at what happened with B!Celica’s art and the fact that SoV’s armor design is basically an upgrade of his Gaiden armor (Celica was the one with a drastic change), I’d rather see someone else instead of Hidari phoning a design again. There’s also the fact that the novelty factor Alm had is nearly vanished. Smash is a double-edged sword and Chrom has a few alts under his belt already, it could really go either way. As for others, you could expect a rise from Eliwood, Leif, Sigurd and Seliph. 

As for the females...

Eirika already took Gleipnir so unless she swipes Excalibur next, she’d probably end up with an original weapon. I don’t see the many of the Ephraim fans jumping ship to his sister. Then  we have characters like Tharja, Cordelia and Camilla whose popularity have declined. The OCs could try to take this one but I’d much rather have Nino or Caeda take it. 

 

Why Eliwood, Leif, Sigurd, and Seliph? Leif, in particular, may be more recognized now but he also no longer has absence as a driving factor. He scored the best of those four in CYL2 and still ended up with less than a third as many votes as any winners, so it'd take a pretty big jump for any of them to make it in. (Seliph, the worst-scoring, would need like 15 times as many votes as he got in CYL2.)

I don't think the choice for a CYL Eirika would be Excalibur or an original weapon. She could easily get a new take on an existing one, such as "Winged Vidofnir".

I'm curious to see how Nino's score will change. The fact that she has an alt now could satisfy some of her fans, but it could also encourage others to keep pushing for more.

[Lord-Zero]

2 minutes ago, Othin said:

Why Eliwood, Leif, Sigurd, and Seliph? Leif, in particular, may be more recognized now but he also no longer has absence as a driving factor. He scored the best of those four in CYL2 and still ended up with less than a third as many votes as any winners, so it'd take a pretty big jump for any of them to make it in. (Seliph, the worst-scoring, would need like 15 times as many votes as he got in CYL2.)

I don't think the choice for a CYL Eirika would be Excalibur or an original weapon. She could easily get a new take on an existing one, such as "Winged Vidofnir".

I'm curious to see how Nino's score will change. The fact that she has an alt now could satisfy some of her fans, but it could also encourage others to keep pushing for more.

Why not them? Depending on how many of those characters get alts between now and January, it could be a completely different scenario, if they get seasonal or legendary alts, that is. In Eliwood’s case, some Lyn/Hector fans could start supporting Eliwood to complete the trio as well as getting better art for the man. Sigurd and Seliph: The Japanese like FE4 so those two could get a slight push, especially Sigurd. Leif, on the other hand, could end up getting a bit of a push as well but I can see Reinhardt getting more votes than him. 

As for Eirika, I thought of that as well but having her steal yet another Sacred Twin that’s already in the game feels dirty. I could see her take after Ephraim and actually bring Reginleif. 

Nino? I’d like to see her take after Jaffar or even Canas. 

[Midnox]

1 hour ago, Lord-Zero said:

Why not them? Depending on how many of those characters get alts between now and January, it could be a completely different scenario, if they get seasonal or legendary alts, that is. In Eliwood’s case, some Lyn/Hector fans could start supporting Eliwood to complete the trio as well as getting better art for the man. Sigurd and Seliph: The Japanese like FE4 so those two could get a slight push, especially Sigurd. Leif, on the other hand, could end up getting a bit of a push as well but I can see Reinhardt getting more votes than him. 

As for Eirika, I thought of that as well but having her steal yet another Sacred Twin that’s already in the game feels dirty. I could see her take after Ephraim and actually bring Reginleif. 

Nino? I’d like to see her take after Jaffar or even Canas. 

I don't see Nino winning, but I'd like seeing a peasant and minor character winning a CYL for a change

[Zangetsu]

Assuming Marth having a 4th alt before the year ends & Alm being completely screwed over by IS over the next 4 months then I can see Alm & Marth winning the male side.

CYL is a combination on who people want to have an alt, relevancy/whatever is most the recent game at the time, & popularity.

 

So assuming that Alm &Marth doesn't get any alts whatsoever for the rest of the year then I don't see why they won't win the Male CLY 3 poll.

[TheWill]

8 hours ago, Vaximillian said:

@SlipperySlippy: I didn’t say Smash was the reason for Ike’s popularity. I said Smash was a reason for Ike’s popularity.

And, as you yourself remarked, that poll was for Japan only, and everyone knows the Tellius dilogy wasn’t a smash hit in the West.

Oh, and that poll having been held in 2015 is irrelevant when Ike got added to Smash in 2008.

Blanket statements like this aren't... reliable. It's impossible to know which percentage of fans voted for Ike predominantly due to Smash. 

Even if Ike wasn't in Smash Bros, I'm pretty sure he still would've won CYL1 with relative ease. However, speaking in hypotheticals is fruitless. Ultimately, we'll have to wait until CYL3 mid-polling results.  

 

8 hours ago, Othin said:

I don't think you understand how relative comparisons work.

"Corrin and Marth being common in Smash didn't help either score higher in either CYL" isn't something you can say unless you know how well they would have scored if they weren't in Smash. You can't just compare to other characters who may have been more popular for other reasons and act like that answers it. Marth losing to Hector and Ephraim despite his presence in Smash doesn't mean Smash didn't help him.

(And let's not forget that if we combine Marth's versions, he got several thousand more votes than Ephraim both times, beating Ephraim by a considerably larger gap than the one he lost to Hector. He also got more votes than Chrom both times. So no, Marth did not "score poorly" relative to any of them, on either poll.)

Would Ike still have won CYL1 without being in Smash? Maybe. But I think it's a pretty safe bet that he would have lost some number of votes. How many? Hard to say. We won't really have a reference point until we see how Chrom scores in CYL3.

But we do have Roy as a relative assessment of how Smash affected his popularity since undoubtedly, Roy would have not beat Hector, Chrom, Marth and Ephraim without his widened exposure thanks to Smash Bros. Gaining this number of votes can only be explained by Smash Bros., considering he's a part of a niche game that was only released in Japan and Roy's character struggles to distinguish himself from previous lords in the franchise (Marth, Seliph, Leif and later, Eliwood)

Saying "Corrin and Marth being common in Smash didn't help either score higher in either CYL" is  valid since the reality is... Marth, Robin and Corrin didn't score even remotely close to Roy with the closest comparison being 15.8k to Roy's 29k. Even with split-voting, Roy is still the predominant winner. You're correct in saying that Smash could have still helped him even if he didn't score as well (using Robin as a baseline, here), however again, his lack of votes is forthcoming when you start considering other factors to Robin's popularity (the 'honeymoon' phase of Awakening's popularity, being the character people projected themselves onto

As for the Marth comments in-terms of votes, we've already established his surge in votes are related to (predominantly) the "neglect" he was experiencing as the first lord of the franchise to only be essentially ignored by IS. This is unrelated to Smash Bros., especially when considering his placements in CYL1 which hold as a more accurate representation to his true popularity.

7 hours ago, Midnox said:

You wrote it: Smash Bros WiiU, probably the least popular and played of the Smash series, not to mention Marth lost because of some split votes bullshit

Smash 4 was the most sold Smash Bros. thanks to its release on two consoles, though.

[Othin]

6 minutes ago, SlipperySlippy said:

But we do have Roy as a relative assessment of how Smash affected his popularity since undoubtedly, Roy would have not beat Hector, Chrom, Marth and Ephraim without his widened exposure thanks to Smash Bros. Gaining this number of votes can only be explained by Smash Bros., considering he's a part of a niche game that was only released in Japan and Roy's character struggles to distinguish himself from previous lords in the franchise (Marth, Seliph, Leif and later, Eliwood)

Saying "Corrin and Marth being common in Smash didn't help either score higher in either CYL" is  valid since the reality is... Marth, Robin and Corrin didn't score even remotely close to Roy with the closest comparison being 15.8k to Roy's 29k. Even with split-voting, Roy is still the predominant winner. You're correct in saying that Smash could have still helped him even if he didn't score as well (using Robin as a baseline, here), however again, his lack of votes is forthcoming when you start considering other factors to Robin's popularity (the 'honeymoon' phase of Awakening's popularity, being the character people projected themselves onto

As for the Marth comments in-terms of votes, we've already established his surge in votes are related to (predominantly) the "neglect" he was experiencing as the first lord of the franchise to only be essentially ignored by IS. This is unrelated to Smash Bros., especially when considering his placements in CYL1 which hold as a more accurate representation to his true popularity.

We have Roy as an example of how much Smash can affect a character's popularity. It's not all-or-nothing. "Smash helped Marth, Robin, and Corrin less than it helped Roy" is a reasonable conclusion to draw, but "Smash did not help Marth, Robin, and Corrin at all" is not.

I wasn't saying anything about Marth's surge of votes between CYL1 and CYL2. I already said that vote surges from CYL1 to CYL2 have nothing to do with Smash because any influence from Smash already showed up in CYL1.

[Mercakete]

Wrys will win all 4 places

Depending on how FEH responds to Three Houses (specifically, putting characters from there on the ballot), could be that the shiny new characters from there wind up placing, since that game's coming out in spring or something.

[Silverly]

3 hours ago, Lord-Zero said:

 As for others, you could expect a rise from Eliwood, Leif, Sigurd and Seliph. 

I can only see this holding true for Eliwood.

Leif didn’t get votes because he was a popular character (which he isn’t). He got votes because people wanted him in the game. If anything, he’ll drop like a rock.

Sigurd is a slight possibility, but the overall unfamiliarity with the western audience should hold him back. He still missed out in the top 20 for males. Seliph wasn’t even close...

As for the “Marth is in jeopardy because of getting a Legendary” argument (not singling you out btw just referring to those in general), I don’t think it’ll scratch him. Marth is a popular character regardless whether or not he has a Legendary alt. Plus, by the time CYL3 rolls around the alt will be 5 months old or so, and will definitely lose its luster by then. 

[Lord-Zero]

15 minutes ago, SilvertheShadow said:

As for the “Marth is in jeopardy because of getting a Legendary” argument (not singling you out btw just referring to those in general), I don’t think it’ll scratch him. Marth is a popular character regardless whether or not he has a Legendary alt. Plus, by the time CYL3 rolls around the alt will be 5 months old or so, and will definitely lose its luster by then. 

...”in jeopardy” for the Japanese, at least. Those were the ones fixated on FE3 Marth. Now that they can finally have him in his most perfect form, they’ll most likely jump over to different characters. The western side will keep going for SD Marth for the sake of getting the pant-less version at any cost unless that version does get to appear as oart of a Shadow Dragon banner, GHB or as a TT prize. 

Edited August 28, 2018 by Lord-Zero