I think Chrom will never win a CYL

[eclipse]

1 hour ago, Seazas said:

That's not a choice on an online poll, so... nah. I stated my piece on an opinionated based forum without replying to anyone at first. I'm not insulting any user or actively harassing someone, am I? Talking negatively about Chrom won't kill you and it shouldn't bother you at all since it's clearly subjective.

There's two really important things when determining whether or not your opinion is welcome.  The first is "time".  The second is "place".  This was neither.

[IEatLasers]

57 minutes ago, Seazas said:

I guess you didn't follow Smash community and ballot discussion? Because Chrom was definitely a major meme at the time and had people rooting for him to get his chance. The West Smash community was definitely a factor, even if he had a majority of Japanese support. Which could also involve a lot of Jpn Smash fans liking Chrom and voting for him in the ballot, you can't say for sure.

Sakurai himself said. He put Chrom in due to his popularity in the east 

[Seazas]

7 hours ago, eclipse said:

There's two really important things when determining whether or not your opinion is welcome.  The first is "time".  The second is "place".  This was neither.

Except you would have a point if I was specifically replying to a Chrom fan and dissing them and their character. Instead it's a single comment related to the topic of CYL chances and I agree that he isn't too likely to win one and that there's better choices regardless. A subjective and easily ignorable statement. No need to tell me to keep my mouth shut over that, lol.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Seazas

[Landmaster]

If his stans and the Seliph boys continue their push, he could win in a year or two. I hope Seliph wins first, though.

[GrandeRampel]

I see a bunch of assumptions in this topic. We have no way of knowing if Seliph or Sigurd have staying power. For all we know they both get a Legendary version, no Jugdral remake is announced and they disappear from the top 10.

Thinking 3H voters will jump to Seliph because they heard 3H was inspired by FE4 is ludicrous. They would have to emulate the damn game, I'd sooner believe that they would try the 3DS games and jump to Chrom instead, but it's more likely they keep voting for 3H characters.

You all are sleeping on Felix. You argue that the long dreamed Seliph alt won't get added and it will help Seliph, but it's also possible Felix will be skipped for Ashe or something and that will help him. And it's not like a minor character from 3H can't beat a lord. Look at Lysithea.

Also, it's equally flawed to assume that Elibe voters will jump to older FE games because they are old school like FE7. The Elibe fans are a pretty insular community from what I see. I can totally see then jumping to Ninian or Lilina or even Eirika in the best case scenario but to a game that's not on the GBA? Nah.

IMHO Chrom has a solid shot at winning CYL5. He has staying power regardless of external factors like number of alts that no character still in the running (except Marth) has demonstrated. While for Seliph to surpass him a number of things must happen/not happen and it's baffling so many people think his victory is certain.

If I had to guess the CYL winners I'll bet on:

- Marth and a popular male from 3H

- Eirika/Lilina/Ninian (it depends on who the Elibe fans decide to support, they have a lot of power) and a popular female from 3H

But if 3H fans divide their votes too much to actually matter then I would bet on:

- Marth and Chrom

- Eirika/Ninian/Lilina and either Azura or Awakening Anna depending entirely on whether or not support for Awakening Anna drops because of the Anna alt or people really care for Awakening Anna to get in the game.

I can also see Seliph sneaking into 2nd place if the planets align in his favour, and Plumeria sneaking into 2nd place if the odds align in her favour (they wait a lot to release her like Lif, the memes stay relevant and funny, she gets to do something cool in the latter half of Book 4).

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by GrandeRampel

[eclipse]

6 hours ago, Seazas said:

Except you would have a point if I was specifically replying to a Chrom fan and dissing them and their character. Instead it's a single comment related to the topic of CYL chances and I agree that he isn't too likely to win one and that there's better choices regardless. A subjective and easily ignorable statement. No need to tell me to keep my mouth shut over that, lol.

Given your history, yes.  Because this isn't a thread about your personal opinions.

[IEatLasers]

Hmm. Three houses fans may divide their opinions a lot. I assumed most would go for Byleth now that the lords are gone, but it is true that even those who just want that, could still cross to female Byleth when I think about it. So there is a lot less I can predict than I initially thought. 
 

Thanks for giving me so much to think about, everyone! While I believe most roads lead to no Chrom, I can’t 100% write him off like I initially thought. 

[eclipse]

Given enough time, all roads will lead to Chrom.  But whether it does will be determined by how long this game lasts.  😛

[Humanoid]

That, or IS pull an EA and do annual releases. 😛

[SoulWeaver]

Don't know if anyone has addressed this yet, but...

On 4/25/2020 at 1:25 AM, IEatLasers said:

(even smash bros boards I’ve seen say nobody plays Chrom on-line) 

Chrom = Roy but w/out recovery options. There is literally no reason to play Chrom in a serious environment when Roy does everything he does but can also recover. And this is from the guy who still plays Pichu, Ganon and Roy in Melee. Yes, Chrom does not have to deal with the same Hitbox placement stuff Roy players need to watch, like Lucina, but while Lucina is still put with Marth due to the even damage balancing out against Marth players mixing their hits between Tippers and sourspots, Chrom is markedly worse than Roy on some key matchups due to having an even worse recovery option. Playing him casual works fine, but in any serious game all someone has to do is pick a character who can Counter your Up-B, force you off the ledge, and tada, free stock.

EDIT: Also, if it came down to it I would 100% go Chrom if it meant it would keep 3H out of the Men's side. As it stands, if I do any mainstream votes they'll be Marth and Eirika only, Ephraim needs his sister in the Brave Room and for goodness' sake, Marth's been utterly shafted every year except possibly the first one, he deserves the win.

Edited April 26, 2020 by SoulWeaver

[IEatLasers]

I honestly want Marth, Chrom, and Erikia to win just because their fan bases have been going through hell every single CYL lol. I already got my favorite men (Ike, Alm, and now Dimitri) and women (Micaiah, Celica) I mean except the really weird ones like Edward, Olivia, and Lethe. 

[Seazas]

4 hours ago, eclipse said:

Given your history, yes.  Because this isn't a thread about your personal opinions.

And I'm not trying to make it about them though. Especially when it's related to the topic and not straight up calling Chrom the literal worst like my "history" did with a certain other character.

[Othin]

23 minutes ago, IEatLasers said:

I honestly want Marth, Chrom, and Erikia to win just because their fan bases have been going through hell every single CYL lol. I already got my favorite men (Ike, Alm, and now Dimitri) and women (Micaiah, Celica) I mean except the really weird ones like Edward, Olivia, and Lethe. 

Yeah, agreed. I also just love Eirika in general. (Although my own votes are still gonna go to missing FE5 characters.)

[Seazas]

31 minutes ago, IEatLasers said:

I honestly want Marth, Chrom, and Erikia to win just because their fan bases have been going through hell every single CYL lol. I already got my favorite men (Ike, Alm, and now Dimitri) and women (Micaiah, Celica) I mean except the really weird ones like Edward, Olivia, and Lethe. 

That's fair, I feel really bad for their fanbases. Honestly, I truly don't mind if Chrom wins one eventually. Hopefully Marth and Eirika can sneak one in.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Seazas

[Sunwoo]

I feel like Marth at the very least should've won already. He would've won CYL2 if his votes hadn't been split. Eirika also had a good chance to come in second during CYL2 if her random ass alt hadn't been dropped in the middle of voting. Seriously, IS, what the fuck? At the very least, those two should win just because 1) Marth really should've won already, and 2) Eirika got fucked over by matters out of her control and IS's own bad timing, and they probably would've won if these circumstances hadn't happened.

Chrom winning CYL at some point depends on the state of the game. If characters like Sigurd and Seliph continue being neglected and not receiving alts, one of them is more likely to win over Chrom. Likewise, if some popular male 3H character continues to get neglected despite scoring highly, they might get past Chrom just to send a message.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Sunwoo

[Othin]

51 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Likewise, if some popular male 3H character continues to get neglected despite scoring highly, they might get past Chrom just to send a message.

This is a good point. Felix, Ashe, and Sylvain are all likely to drop in votes after getting added, but if any of them are still absent by CYL5, they could get enough of a bump to win.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I would really love it if Marth and Eirika won, yeah. My other top two choices, one for men and one for women, are Leif and Ninian, but I don't see either of those happening anytime soon.

[Sunwoo]

1 hour ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I would really love it if Marth and Eirika won, yeah. My other top two choices, one for men and one for women, are Leif and Ninian, but I don't see either of those happening anytime soon.

The thing with Leif was that he did get pretty high up in ranking when he wasn't in the game yet, but then he dropped off once he was added into the game. Characters like that are super dependent on what's going on with the game relative to how well they rank. Characters like Chrom, both Robins, Takumi, and Leo have somewhat stabilized in ranking. They haven't won CYL yet, but barring that one time when apparently a youtuber was rallying for f!Robin they don't really move too much overall from their spots. Leif, Sigurd, Seliph, and a lot of the 3H characters this year may or may not have staying power and we won't know unless all of those high rankers get into the game.

How this relates to Chrom (and Takumi and the Robins and Leo and technically Marth) is that if all the variable characters above them don't get alts or into the game, the immediate demand for them could push them as high as 1st or 2nd place for the dudes. Only when characters with that high demand get pushed out for whatever reason can characters like Chrom or even Marth reach top 2.

[MagicCanonBalls]

All this arguments make me wanna dump all my votes into Chrom for CYL5. I always split it between FE12, Awakening, Fates and Bruno (IS pls bring him back). Hopefully he can win before I totally give up on this game (which I am halfway there).

[eclipse]

17 hours ago, Seazas said:

And I'm not trying to make it about them though. Especially when it's related to the topic and not straight up calling Chrom the literal worst like my "history" did with a certain other character.

Your original post:

On 4/24/2020 at 10:23 PM, Seazas said:

He won't and I'm perfectly fine with that. There's better choices anyway.

First is a definitive negative, second is dismissal.  The topic body clearly has analysis as to why this is the case, while yours is a straight opinion.  Which should tell you that this isn't a place to air this.

In other words, if you pull this crap again, I'll hit your warn bar instead of telling you verbally to knock it off.  This will apply to every single instance that your generally negative opinion has nothing to do with the thread.  Do I make myself clear?

[TheSilentChloey]

I'd love to see Chrom and Marth win the next CYL...damn for having split votes 😧 I'm pretty sure that until you actually get to the CYL polls you don't really know what will happen and who will get in until literally the last day or so of voting.  Though if Marth and Chrom took 1st and second place in the next CYL...well, I know I'd be summoning for one and chosing the other as my pick, since I don't go for who's the meta best, just who I like out of the CYL heroes *cough* Lancina Brave Veronica Brave Camilla *cough*.  I tend to be picky about the units I want though...

[IEatLasers]

3 hours ago, TheSilentChloey said:

I'd love to see Chrom and Marth win the next CYL...damn for having split votes 😧 I'm pretty sure that until you actually get to the CYL polls you don't really know what will happen and who will get in until literally the last day or so of voting.  Though if Marth and Chrom took 1st and second place in the next CYL...well, I know I'd be summoning for one and chosing the other as my pick, since I don't go for who's the meta best, just who I like out of the CYL heroes *cough* Lancina Brave Veronica Brave Camilla *cough*.  I tend to be picky about the units I want though...

On the bright side....

 

you can save 140 orbs and pick a free unit. So if you do get Marth and Chrom in, then you can get the other in (140 isn’t hard to earn if you skip a couple banners) 
 

nost people don’t think Chrom can get in; you’ll need to prove them wrong so good luck! 
I have extra votes now until they release a new game and I’m still picking how to use them 

[Seazas]

8 hours ago, eclipse said:

Your original post:

First is a definitive negative, second is dismissal.  The topic body clearly has analysis as to why this is the case, while yours is a straight opinion.  Which should tell you that this isn't a place to air this.

In other words, if you pull this crap again, I'll hit your warn bar instead of telling you verbally to knock it off.  This will apply to every single instance that your generally negative opinion has nothing to do with the thread.  Do I make myself clear?

Fine, I won't put negative opinions in an analytic based threads without any detail and not as dismissively.

No promises that I am going to stop shit talking Kris though, especially in threads where others are also being opinionated and Kris ends up being a relevant topic. That's just likely not going to happen. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Seazas

[Troykv]

Chrom is this one player that really doesn't seem to benefit of anything in particular, but also doesn't lose.

This is probably the only character besides Marth himself that has been this consistent in CYL, I think he has the potential to win CYL5 (mostly because new games or remakes won't be affecting this time), now that only he's competition it's mostly Marth + several 3H Characters without a clear favorite going into CYL5.

In the other hand, Seliph and Sigurd depends quite a bit of how things develop prior to CYL.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Troykv

[IEatLasers]

2 hours ago, Troykv said:

Chrom is this one player that really doesn't seem to benefit of anything in particular, but also doesn't lose.

This is probably the only character besides Marth himself that has been this consistent in CYL, I think he has the potential to win CYL5 (mostly because new games or remakes won't be affecting this time), now that only he's competition it's mostly Marth + several 3H Characters without a clear favorite going into CYL5.

In the other hand, Seliph and Sigurd depends quite a bit of how things develop prior to CYL.

Yeah. If Seliph gets a legendary, all support moves to Sigurd who gets in. If Sigurd gets one, Seliph gets in basically. Many Chrom fans would have shifted to dimitri but the other direction isn’t true for whatever reason 

 

so I think his chances are shot because there is very little possibility both Sigurd and Seliph get a legendary so support for the two of them will pool together. I don’t think a normal alt will cut it, especially if it’s a duo in which case the secondary unit will be the rally character