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Three Hopes - Rate their Chances


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Ooh, now that NPCs are on the table, it'll be neat to see if anyone merits a 0/10 from me. I had been previously planning on using 1 as a minimum.

Nader is a 1/10 himself, comparable to the least likely PCs. Hard to imagine he'll get in unless the roster has at least 40 people.

For personal want, I'll say 3/10, but it's complicated. I don't really care about him and I wouldn't play as him. If he was announced as a random, plotless DLC character after the game's release, I wouldn't care about the announcement at all. But on the other hand, if he's in the game, I'll be kind of excited, not for him, but because it means we might be getting more exploration of Claude's Almyran heritage and connections, and that'd be cool.

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I don't want to say that any character has zero chance whatsoever of being playable in this game, so I'll use 1/10 as a minimum.

That out of the way, Nader is a 1/10. Him being a wyvern rider makes him already redundant as there's already Hilda and Seteth among others for that role, and he's just not very important; his only real purpose is to illustrate that Claude has Almyran forces under his command.

Plus, it wouldn't be fun to play as a character that is programmed to run away the moment things become disadvantageous.

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Nader is, uh, a character in Three Houses. I'm almost certain of it.

I can imagine them branching out into some NPCs for playable units, especially since we've already seen Judith and Randolph in combat, but Nader seems like a bit of a stretch. Not the biggest stretch, mind you, but a stretch nonetheless. He at least appears as both an enemy and ally, which gives something to work with.

I'll give him...15%.

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I really want Nader in, if only so we can see more of his relationship with Claude and his dynamic with Judith. How are you just gonna tell me Judith is making heart eyes at him in Balthus dialogue of all things, and not show it more on-screen? 😞

That said, the fact we know Judith and Randolph are enemies you can fight, I can only assume the same would apply to the likes of Nader (+ Ladislava and Rodrigue), if only due to his ties with Claude. And since KT love making NPCs in Warriors games DLC characters, Nader's chances for at least being DLC at least are decent.

4/10 for being playable in the base game, 9/10 for playable DLC.

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Nader gets 1.5/10.

 

Day 26 - Mercedes

 

Mercedes - a bit less popular than most Blue Lions, but still reasonably so. Pretty plot important with her familial connection to a certain character, who as far as I'm concerned is basically guaranteed to be in. She also has some flexibility as a priest, archer, or combination thereof. So I think a 7/10 chance is appropriate.

 

As for want score, I think a 4/10 would suffice. I don't hate her, but I don't have any particular interest in her either. Might be worth it just for the off chance of an improved new timeskip design.

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Mercedes already made a cameo appearance in Mario Kart 8, so I think her chances are good.

Jokes aside, I'd say she's less likely than any of Dimitri's crew, but more likely than Ashe. She's an obvious "white mage", although Marianne and Flayn may be ahead of her in that regard. She gets a Hero's Relic (technically), has a Crest-associated Sacred Weapon (that she's not very good with), and has an interesting relationship with Jeritza (who may or may not be in the game).

If we get 6 Blue Lions, Mercedes will probably be one of them (although it'd be weird to see her without Annette). And of course, she's in if all the students are. I think she's deserving of a 6 out of 10.

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I’m agreeing with Pete’s mate on this one 6/10, she suffers class competition and in house competition.

I give her a 4/10 on personal, I’m not to into her looks and I rather dislike her voice.

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I think Mercedes is deceptively likely. Less likely than Dimitri's crew, but more likely than Annette and Ashe, and that's mainly thanks to her relationship to a character that I feel is also pretty likely to appear. 7.5/10

Personal want is my very last 10/10. Mercedes is one of my favorites.

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6.5/10 on getting in as a playable character, but we can round up to 7/10 for whole number's sake. She's good, and I have no doubt she'd appear as an NPC if not playable, but she doesn't have too much story importance outside of one easy-to-miss and overrated connection IMO. Personal desire is a 7/10 as well. I like her well enough, but I do hope her new time-skip design is an upgrade compared to her original time-skip design. (Although it probably would have been fine if we could have just removed that hat of hers!) 

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Mercedes gets a 6/10. For reference, I have Dedue at 7, Annette at 6, and Ashe at 5, and I feel comfortable putting Mercie around the middle there. She's kinda popular but not supremely so, and is fairly deletable aside from her connection with Jeritza, who I don't think is particularly more likely than her.

Personal want is a 7/10. Like Ferdinand, she's a character who surprised me somewhat; a bunch of her supports are really good.

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Mercedes, hm...it's weird, because on her own she seems like a good pick that I would consider reasonably likely, but then there are just enough Blue Lions that seem more likely than her, if only barely, for one reason or another that she could end up getting pushed out anyway.

60% seems appropriate.

She is also one of my more wanted characters.

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Mercedes has a lot of competition unfortunately, but it does help she's more plot-relevant than a good chunk of the BL, even up there with Dedue and Felix imo just for the Jeritza connection alone.

I give her a solid 70% for being in, but personally, she's a 100% want.

 

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Mercedes is definitely plot-relevant, given her relation to the black knight. That definitely gets her a lot of points. However, she's not one of the "Dimitri's childhood friends" group, and she does have lots of competition for white magic user (Linhardt, Lysithea, Flayn, Marianne, etc.)

Overall, I'd say 7/10.

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Mercedes gets 6.61.

 

And we're going for a sibling showdown today.

 

Day 27 - Jeritza

 

I actually think an 8/10 is reasonable here. I think he's basically guaranteed to be in the game as an NPC, with a high likelihood of being playable. He's a natural Lu Bu for this game.

 

Variable want score. 10/10 if you can play him unmasked, 7/10 if masked only.

Edited by Fabulously Olivier
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Jeritza, I gotta give him a 6/10. He has far more weight as an enemy than an ally. I can see him as an enemy or as a npc for the Eagles.

Personal want is a 2, as stated I care little for edgy characters and if we gotta have a violent murderer make them like Clementine, someone who is just irredeemable bait is clearly just having a whale of a time.

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Jeritza is an interesting case. I do think the "Death Knight" will make an appearance (if not several). But as a character who is most known for being an antagonist, he may remain just that. Given his personality, he might still be a chaotic antagonistic force, even in a "golden route". There are a few factors helping him: his relationship with Mercedes and his possession of a signature weapon, to name two.

I could certainly see this game with all students playable, but no playable Jeritza. I could also see playable Jeritza with some students left out. I'll give him a 3 out of 10.

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3 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Jeritza is an interesting case. I do think the "Death Knight" will make an appearance (if not several). But as a character who is most known for being an antagonist, he may remain just that. Given his personality, he might still be a chaotic antagonistic force, even in a "golden route". There are a few factors helping him: his relationship with Mercedes and his possession of a signature weapon, to name two.

I could certainly see this game with all students playable, but no playable Jeritza. I could also see playable Jeritza with some students left out. I'll give him a 3 out of 10.

It's certainly possible that he remains an enemy. But because this seems to be a Golden Route and Edelgard appears to be working with the others, I could very easily see Jeritza being reigned in. And even his battle lust may be redirected with a foe as strong as Original Character Do Not Steal introduced.

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20 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

It's certainly possible that he remains an enemy. But because this seems to be a Golden Route and Edelgard appears to be working with the others, I could very easily see Jeritza being reigned in. And even his battle lust may be redirected with a foe as strong as Original Character Do Not Steal introduced.

There would be something fitting about a "blood knight" like Jeritza being playable in a Warriors game, where he gets to slaughter all the faceless generics he feel like. Then again, Jeritza enjoys the dubious honor of not even being in 3H at release, but being held back for a later update (which is why I have no experience with him as a unit). Also, one of the struggles with a "golden route" is having interesting antagonists - if the Empire, Kingdom, Alliance, and Church are all on the same side, then the only plausible antagonists are the OC dude, the Agarthans, and possibly the Almyrans. Jeritza, as the Death Knight, is enough of a "wild card" to still take on an antagonistic role regardless. I think he has decent odds at being playable, but less so than any given student.

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