Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[Dark Holy Elf]

Ingrid's got a pretty good chance. Of the Lions women, she's the closest with Dimitri (who's a lock) and Felix (who's close), as well as Sylvain. Very easy to see the so-called "Faerghus Four" all getting in. If class uniqueness holds any weight at all, then she's the canon pegasus knight, too. I won't be stunned if she's not in, but I expect her to be. 8/10, only below the super-popular characters.

For personal want, she's another 6/10. Ingrid's a PC I use pretty often, and I like her well enough.

10 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

• You all are putting far too much significance in CYL votes. You know who else scored significantly worse than Hapi? Catherine. I guess Catherine is a 1/10 NEVER HAPPENING character, huh?
• I disagree, honestly Warriors doesn't differentiate magic THAT much. Aside from that, other potential mounted magic users (such as Lorenz) could fill her slot just as well as Raphael could fill Balthus's.
• If we get more than one but less than four wolves, Yuri+Balthus is absolutely not the least plausible outcome. Yuri+Constance would probably be the most likely pairing, but Yuri+Hapi is definitely the least likely.

Honestly, I feel like people are putting Balthus so low and Hapi higher for no other reason than gender, and that's silly.

That first point isn't the gotcha you think it is, as Catherine isn't that likely either. Popularity is absolutely the single most important metric for getting into a game like this, both because popular characters are more likely to be liked by the devs making the choices, and because they're likely to select popular characters to help sell the game. Gilbert is plot-important but I'd rate him one of the absolute least likely playable characters to get in, and I doubt I'm alone.

Gender isn't the only or even most important reason; popularity is the big one. But it's more that there really aren't any convincing reasons to think Balthus is more likely. If there's no class system and having a brawler is a priority they have plenty of choices for one already.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

4 hours ago, ciphertul said:

You are clear under stating how important popularity is. Your Catherine point doesn’t even work, why? Because she actually has a presence in the story, Balthus doesn’t. Hapi is the most likely with her popularity, remember that is why they picked Cordelia over Sumia in FEW even though Sumia made much more sense.

I haven't understated anything, I've made note of popularity in just about all of my rankings so far. If anything, I think popularity is being OVERstated. And there's a reason I said "CYL votes" and not "popularity."

My Catherine point works perfectly well. Alois has just as much story presence and I GUARANTEE that he's going to be one of the lower ratings here.

11 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

That first point isn't the gotcha you think it is, as Catherine isn't that likely either. Popularity is absolutely the single most important metric for getting into a game like this, both because popular characters are more likely to be liked by the devs making the choices, and because they're likely to select popular characters to help sell the game. Gilbert is plot-important but I'd rate him one of the absolute least likely playable characters to get in, and I doubt I'm alone.

Gender isn't the only or even most important reason; popularity is the big one. But it's more that there really aren't any convincing reasons to think Balthus is more likely. If there's no class system and having a brawler is a priority they have plenty of choices for one already.

I mean, I didn't think it was any kind of gotcha, nor was it intended to be. If you're really going to read that sort of thing into what I'm saying then I don't think there's much discussion to have.

Anyway, Ingrid is very likely. She makes the most sense as a pegasus knight, she has a crest and a personal relic weapon, she's part of the "Dimitri gang," and she has a following. She has a lot going for her. I'd be surprised if she didn't make it. 9/10

[Dark Holy Elf]

22 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I mean, I didn't think it was any kind of gotcha, nor was it intended to be. If you're really going to read that sort of thing into what I'm saying then I don't think there's much discussion to have.

Fair enough. "I guess Catherine is a 1/10 NEVER HAPPENING character, huh?" sounded like it was intended as one to me, but if that's not what you intended I'll take you at your word.

[ciphertul]

28 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Fair enough. "I guess Catherine is a 1/10 NEVER HAPPENING character, huh?" sounded like it was intended as one to me, but if that's not what you intended I'll take you at your word.

That is how I took it as well.

[Etrurian emperor]

I'd say Ingrid is a solid 8/10

Unlike the other Blion girls she's part of the Dimitri childhood friends brigade which makes her harder to skip. She's also the obvious pegasus knight representative and has a relic to boot.

[vanguard333]

Ingrid... is there anything against her? She's fairly popular last I checked, she's part of Dimitri's group of childhood friends, and she has basically no competition whatsoever for Pegasus Knight. The only reason I can see her not getting in is if they instead decide to use Mercedes simply because she's the Death Knight's sister.

Overall, I'd say 9/10.

[Use the Falchion]

Ingrid is very very likely going to make it into the game, so I'll put her as an 8.5/10 (or a 9/10 if we need to round up). 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Use the Falchion

[ThePrimeOne]

8/10 for Ingrid. The Faerghus Four (minus Dimitri cos he's already confirmed) have all got good chances of being in.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

9 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

My Catherine point works perfectly well. Alois has just as much story presence and I GUARANTEE that he's going to be one of the lower ratings here.

That's just not true. Catherine is used to illustrate what a Hero's Relic is, even getting a cutscene to that end. Moreover, she has personal history with Lonato, as well as a connection to a Kingdom house that comes up in Azure Moon. Alois... doesn't have anything of the sort. No Relic, no cutscene, no political connections. He has a history with Jeralt, sure, but we don't yet know what sort of role Jeralt will even be playing in Three Hopes. 

[Fire Emblem Fan]

2 hours ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

That's just not true.

It is true. I'll grant you the (very brief) Catherine cutscene, but having a relic doesn't automatically give you more story presence (looking at you, Annette). Alois does have important connections with major characters, has a connection to the church which shows up in EVERY route, and is just as present as Catherine throughout the game. Her connection to Lonato is used in exactly one chapter, and then...not much of anything for the entire rest of the game, you won't get anything else unless you dive into her optional supports. Same with the majority of other characters and their backstories. She's deemed important because she's so faithful to Rhea, but how often does Catherine have any kind of influence or impact on the story? Not very often, if at all, honestly.

[ciphertul]

10 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

It is true. I'll grant you the (very brief) Catherine cutscene, but having a relic doesn't automatically give you more story presence (looking at you, Annette). Alois does have important connections with major characters, has a connection to the church which shows up in EVERY route, and is just as present as Catherine throughout the game. Her connection to Lonato is used in exactly one chapter, and then...not much of anything for the entire rest of the game, you won't get anything else unless you dive into her optional supports. Same with the majority of other characters and their backstories. She's deemed important because she's so faithful to Rhea, but how often does Catherine have any kind of influence or impact on the story? Not very often, if at all, honestly.

It’s still more then Alois. Does Alois help in any main mission? No. Does Alois have a crest or a personal weapon? No. Alois isn’t as important as Catherine. It just your personal bias.

Edited March 11, 2022 by ciphertul

[Fabulously Olivier]

Ingrid averages 8.55 with perhaps the lowest score variance we've seen yet.

 

Day 17 - He's Ferdinand von Aegir

 

Ferdinand feels like the Felix to Edelgard's Dimitri or the Lorenz to Edelgard's Claude. He's that "friendly" rival who makes the class dynamic interesting, and he's somewhere between Felix and Lorenz in popularity. I think he's a solid 7/10 for chance.

 

For want score, easily 9/10. Ferdinand's got a great design, personality, and moveset potential.

[ciphertul]

Ferdinand gets a solid 8/10 from me, he is the most likely male from the Eagles save Hubert. While he may be less then the Ladies I think he had a high chance.

Personal want is 9/10 as well, for he is Ferdinand Von Aegir!

[ThePrimeOne]

Another 8 for Ferdie. I can't see him not being in, the Adrestian Trio's dynamic is great,  so I hope he'll be back to liven things up again.

[Fabulously Olivier]

23 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Ingrid's got a pretty good chance. Of the Lions women, she's the closest with Dimitri (who's a lock) and Felix (who's close), as well as Sylvain. Very easy to see the so-called "Faerghus Four" all getting in. If class uniqueness holds any weight at all, then she's the canon pegasus knight, too. I won't be stunned if she's not in, but I expect her to be. 8/10, only below the super-popular characters.

For personal want, she's another 6/10. Ingrid's a PC I use pretty often, and I like her well enough.

That first point isn't the gotcha you think it is, as Catherine isn't that likely either. Popularity is absolutely the single most important metric for getting into a game like this, both because popular characters are more likely to be liked by the devs making the choices, and because they're likely to select popular characters to help sell the game. Gilbert is plot-important but I'd rate him one of the absolute least likely playable characters to get in, and I doubt I'm alone.

Gender isn't the only or even most important reason; popularity is the big one. But it's more that there really aren't any convincing reasons to think Balthus is more likely. If there's no class system and having a brawler is a priority they have plenty of choices for one already.

I could see the Faerghus Four as not only getting in, but also setting the minimum standard for roster size. That is to say, I think the base game will launch with at least the lord and 3 students per house. And probably the same for the Church. We could generally view the Church (& Wolves?) as being Byleth's house (ie: Byleth could bring in Seteth, Yuri, and Shamir).

[Fire Emblem Fan]

5 hours ago, ciphertul said:

It’s still more then Alois. Does Alois help in any main mission? No. Does Alois have a crest or a personal weapon? No. Alois isn’t as important as Catherine. It just your personal bias.

No, it isn't personal bias. Alois is literally responsible for taking Byleth to the church in the first place. Having a crest or relic does not automatically make one character more important than another, if it did then Annette would be more important than Dedue. I'm not gonna keep responding to a bunch of people dog piling on me over every damn thing I say.

ANYWAY, Ferdinand Von Aegir! I think he's pretty likely, the most likely male from the Black Eagles (aside from the already confirmed Hubert). I could see them capitalizing on his "rivalry" with Edelgard. The only obstacle against him is Dorothea. If we don't get every single student and character, then I think the Black Eagles lineup will be either Edelgard/Hubert/Bernadetta/Dorothea, or Edelgard/Hubert/Bernadetta/Ferdinand. 8/10

[Fabulously Olivier]

9 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

No, it isn't personal bias. Alois is literally responsible for taking Byleth to the church in the first place. Having a crest or relic does not automatically make one character more important than another, if it did then Annette would be more important than Dedue. I'm not gonna keep responding to a bunch of people dog piling on me over every damn thing I say.

ANYWAY, Ferdinand Von Aegir! I think he's pretty likely, the most likely male from the Black Eagles (aside from the already confirmed Hubert). I could see them capitalizing on his "rivalry" with Edelgard. The only obstacle against him is Dorothea. If we don't get every single student and character, then I think the Black Eagles lineup will be either Edelgard/Hubert/Bernadetta/Dorothea, or Edelgard/Hubert/Bernadetta/Ferdinand. 8/10

The latter is my preference. I'm thinking/hoping at minimum:

 

Byleth/Seteth/Shamir/Rhea

Dimitri/Felix/Ingrid/Sylvain

Edelgard/Hubert/Bernadetta/Ferdinand

Claude/Hilda/Marianne/Lysithea

Jeritza

Yuri

 

Gatekeeper, OC Do Not Steal, and anyone not included in base roster all feel like natural DLC picks.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Ferdinand is in a pretty similar boat to Petra, I think.

 He's well behind Bernadetta/Dorothea so he needs a larger Eagles roster to compete. Could benefit from gender balance potentially, since he's arguably second in line for Eagles men, although he has some competition even then. 6/10.

For personal want, 7/10. I definitely like Ferdinand, which is neat to say because I was assuming he would be a detestable joke character from his first few supports.

1 hour ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I could see the Faerghus Four as not only getting in, but also setting the minimum standard for roster size. That is to say, I think the base game will launch with at least the lord and 3 students per house. And probably the same for the Church. We could generally view the Church (& Wolves?) as being Byleth's house (ie: Byleth could bring in Seteth, Yuri, and Shamir).

Unless we get "everyone is here" I will be stunned if the Church has as many members as the individual houses (both due to popularity reasons and the game's title). But otherwise I agree, I think getting four per house sounds reasonable enough and could well be a possibility for the reasons you said. Obviously my ratings have been incorporating the chance of getting more than that too, because if there is four, for instance, Ferdinand (and Petra, and Annette,  whom I gave the same score to) absolutely has less than a 50% chance of getting in.

[Fabulously Olivier]

4 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Ferdinand is in a pretty similar boat to Petra, I think.

 He's well behind Bernadetta/Dorothea so he needs a larger Eagles roster to compete. Could benefit from gender balance potentially, since he's arguably second in line for Eagles men, although he has some competition even then. 6/10.

For personal want, 7/10. I definitely like Ferdinand, which is neat to say because I was assuming he would be a detestable joke character from his first few supports.

Unless we get "everyone is here" I will be stunned if the Church has as many members as the individual houses (both due to popularity reasons and the game's title). But otherwise I agree, I think getting four per house sounds reasonable enough and could well be a possibility for the reasons you said. Obviously my ratings have been incorporating the chance of getting more than that too, because if there is four, for instance, Ferdinand (and Petra, and Annette,  whom I gave the same score to) absolutely has less than a 50% chance of getting in.

I think you're putting too much weight on the title of the game. It seems obvious to me that they want the name of this game to mimic that of the original FE3H. There was a zero percent chance that they'd name it Fire Emblem Warriors: Four Houses or Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Houses and Friends.

[Dark Holy Elf]

1 minute ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I think you're putting too much weight on the title of the game. It seems obvious to me that they want the name of this game to mimic that of the original FE3H. There was a zero percent chance that they'd name it Fire Emblem Warriors: Four Houses or Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Houses and Friends.

Fire Emblem Warriors: Four Hopes would have been a perfectly reasonable title if they were planning on giving the church equal billing, especially in Japan where the original title of FE3H was pretty much Fire Emblem: Four Seasons.

But yeah I more take the title as confirming what I would have expected all along.

[ciphertul]

43 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I'm not gonna keep responding to a bunch of people dog piling on me over every damn thing I say.

Don’t play the victim, you are not one. You presented an incorrect argument, other have presented reasons why you are wrong. It’s not dog piling you. I called it your personal bias because nothing that you have used to “counter” us is all half assed. I think you said it early didn’t you?

 

On 3/10/2022 at 9:44 AM, Fire Emblem Fan said:

If you're really going to read that sort of thing into what I'm saying then I don't think there's much discussion to have.

This is what I have to say to you.

Edited March 11, 2022 by ciphertul

[Fabulously Olivier]

You know what? I think everyone has a fair case on the Catherine vs. Alois argument, and there's room for reasonable minds to differ on which is more likely. There's no need to get hostile on that case, as both fall into the category of "somewhat important, but by no means essential."

[vanguard333]

Ferdinand... he's fairly popular, and he definitely has plot-importance as a self-proclaimed advisor/rival to Edelgard. The main problem that I see is that, while he is versatile in terms of potential classes, he has a fair bit of competition for all of them. For paladin, his default class, he has to compete with Sylvain among others, and the alternatives, such as wyvern rider, have even more competition.

Overall, 9/10.

[Fabulously Olivier]

9 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

Ferdinand... he's fairly popular, and he definitely has plot-importance as a self-proclaimed advisor/rival to Edelgard. The main problem that I see is that, while he is versatile in terms of potential classes, he has a fair bit of competition for all of them. For paladin, his default class, he has to compete with Sylvain among others, and the alternatives, such as wyvern rider, have even more competition.

Overall, 9/10.

That's somewhat offset by just how insanely versatile he is. There's also the great knight/armor knight tree that he could reasonably be placed into.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

13 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

It is true. I'll grant you the (very brief) Catherine cutscene, but having a relic doesn't automatically give you more story presence (looking at you, Annette). Alois does have important connections with major characters, has a connection to the church which shows up in EVERY route, and is just as present as Catherine throughout the game. Her connection to Lonato is used in exactly one chapter, and then...not much of anything for the entire rest of the game, you won't get anything else unless you dive into her optional supports. Same with the majority of other characters and their backstories. She's deemed important because she's so faithful to Rhea, but how often does Catherine have any kind of influence or impact on the story? Not very often, if at all, honestly.

It's not just about having a Relic, but one that actually gets attention from the story. In terms of narrative presence, Thunderbrand is only behind the Sword of the Creator, and perhaps the Lance of Ruin. Most other Relics only get mentioned once by the character in the Paralogue they receive it, but Thunderbrand has a good chunk of the Monastery talking about it before Chapter 2. It's the player's first exposure to a Hero's Relic, and Catherine is the first wielder of one (and Knight of Seiros) that Teach gets to share a battlefield with.

Anyone, with Hubert all but confirmed, I think it's fair to consider Ferdinand the most likely not-yet-confirmed boy from the Black Eagles. If we only get 3 Black Eagles, then I think it's a toss-up between him and Dorothea. If we get 4, then he's almost certainly in, unless they put both Dorothea and Bernadetta ahead of him. One thing that could hurt, though, is Sylvain being playable. They have similar proficiencies and similar appearances, so having both in the game might be construed as redundant (even if their personalities could hardly be further apart). I feel good giving Ferdinand an 8 out of 10.