Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[Etrurian emperor]

19 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

•  
• Yuri: 2/10. I slightly dislike Yuri, partly because of that awful support with Bernadetta which tries to apologize for her father (I shouldn't really blame Yuri for this, but the association is there) and partly because he attracts some weird fans who praise him as "what Claude should have been" like yeah, you mean white?

I think its even a little worse than him apologizing for her scumbag dad. Yuri's support kinda indicates that count Varley was completely correct in beating up Bernie's friend and traumatizing her for years. That's a little tone deaf, and its weird that Varley of all people gets some rehabilitation.

My main problem with Yuri is that I felt he's a bit too perfect and that he's too many things at once. He's the mafia boss of Fodlan while at the same time he's also Snape's right hand, Rhea's double agent, A noble from house Rowe and Ashe's friend, possible raised by a centuries old dragon saint and also Bernie's first friend. Yuri isn't even that old so its weird that he found the time to do all of this. 

[Fabulously Olivier]

Petra averages out to 6.63.

 

Day 13 - Our Lord and Savior Lorenz Helmann Gloucester, III, esq.

 

Lorenz is lower in popularity, but pretty high in importance. He also faces a not insignificant amount of competition for his class. I think he stands a solid chance of being a 5th GD student. So, I'll go 6/10.

 

As for want, 8/10. I love the Bastian archetype, including Virion and Lorenz. And while Lorenz is the worst of the three, the "we have Bastian at home" is still very much wanted.

Edited March 7, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

Lorenz is such a strange little anomaly. He just doesn’t know what to be. He wants to be a Paladin based on his in game classes, his family’s relic makes him want to be a Dark Knight and his crest’s sacred weapon makes him want to be a Great Knight. As it sits he has stiff competition for the Paladin spot, however I think he has the lead for Dark Knight and there really is no other major option for Great Knight. So that all said I give him a 5/10. 
As for personal want if he is a Dark Knight or Great knight then I would give him a 7/10 if they make him a Paladin then it’s like 3/10.

Edited March 7, 2022 by ciphertul

[Fabulously Olivier]

23 minutes ago, ciphertul said:

Lorenz is such a strange little anomaly. He just doesn’t know what to be. He wants to be a Paladin based on his in game classes, his family’s relic makes him want to be a Dark Knight and his crest’s sacred weapon makes him want to be a Great Knight. As it sits he has stiff competition for the Paladin spot, however I think he has the lead for Dark Knight and there really is no other major option for Great Knight. So that all said I give him a 5/10. 
As for personal want if he is a Dark Knight or Great knight then I would give him a 7/10 if they make him a Paladin then it’s like 3/10.

That confusion doesn't really exist. Literally no character retains their canon outfit in their final tier class if it's a mounted class, but that shouldn't mean that this isn't their canon end class. Otherwise we'd have to say that Seteth isn't a canon Wyvern Lord. 

 

Ideally, he'd be a Dark Knight with an axe.

[ciphertul]

11 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

That confusion doesn't really exist. Literally no character retains their canon outfit in their final tier class if it's a mounted class, but that shouldn't mean that this isn't their canon end class. Otherwise we'd have to say that Seteth isn't a canon Wyvern Lord. 

 

Ideally, he'd be a Dark Knight with an axe.

With only 5 recruitable character reaching master class it’s to hard to say what should be and what will be. 3 Hope will hopefully make better use of that.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Lorenz isn't tied to the Axe of Ukronsova (sorry, probably misspelling it) any more than Lysithea is; he's not an axe-user, he has no boon in axes or the other ranks associated with axes (flight and armour), and his special magic combat art which is core to his identity as a hybrid unit is lance-related, and he consistently appears in lance-using classes as a guest/enemy. If they give characters a single identity in Three Hopes (I feel that using a class system is more likely, especially if the cast is large enough that Lorenz gets in), I find it highly unlikely he'll be a Great Knight.

Lorenz: 5/10. He's not very popular, but he's helped a bit by the fact that he does indeed feel more important than the average member of his house, so if importance ends up the key criterion, then a set such as Claude/Hilda/Lysithea/Lorenz becomes reasonably possible. He's also helped out by the fact that there are three other relatively unpopular Deer. This keeps him well above the bottom tier of "only with 100% students", but I still think he's less likely than Petra/Annette.

Personal want: 5/10 as well. I like Lorenz a bit, but he's not a favourite.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Lorenz is hurt by Lysithea and Marianne. I don't see any version of this game where he gets in over either of them. He does have a dynamic with Claude, but so does Hilda. Lorenz really isn't that important. He's kind of like Petra, to be honest. I'm all but certain that the Golden Deer lineup will be Claude/Hilda/Lysithea/Marianne, but if we get another member or two per house, then Lorenz will probably show up. I was gonna give him the same rating as Raphael, but I'll go one point higher. 6/10

[LoneStar]

I'm pretty sure we see a glimpse of Lorenz in the trailer, but this isn't confirmed obviously. It would make sense for him to appear in the game since his house is important to the politics of the game. I can even see Acheron as a boss. I'll give him a 7/10.

I don't know how these Warrior games do things, but is it possible for him to just be an NPC? Like I said he has a bit more story importance that other characters, but those characters are way more popular, and they should be well aware of that.

[Fabulously Olivier]

21 minutes ago, LoneStar said:

I don't know how these Warrior games do things, but is it possible for him to just be an NPC? Like I said he has a bit more story importance that other characters, but those characters are way more popular, and they should be well aware of that.

NPCs are absolutely a thing in Warriors games. Usually for characters they didn't feel like fully fleshing out movesets for. In FEW, they presumably didn't feel like it was worth giving musou, dual musou, and awakening special attacks to Darios, Gharnef, Iago, and Validar, or writing supports for them, despite them sharing the rest of their movesets with existing characters.

 

It's even more a thing in One Piece, since that franchise has so many distinct characters with distinct powers, and making them all playable would be unrealistic.

[vanguard333]

Hm... Lorenz isn't particularly popular, and the Dark Knight class has competition with Death Knight in terms of gameplay role. However, Lorenz does have plot relevance in the form of being heir to the second-in-command of the Alliance and being the main foil to Claude.

I'd say... 6/10.

Edited March 7, 2022 by vanguard333

[Use the Falchion]

Lorenz is a 7/10. He's a solid enough and unique enough character IMO that it's likely he'll get in over Ignatz & Raphael, but Hilda, Marianne, and Lysithea are also far more popular and far more likely to get in. 

[Fabulously Olivier]

20 hours ago, Morgan--Grandmaster said:

I just realized something. FE Warriors had 23 characters in the base game. There are 24 students in the base game of Three Houses. The Warriors DLC added 9 characters, adding up to a total of 32. 32 - 24 = 8. Subtract another 4 for the Ashen Wolves, and that still leaves room for Byleth, Seteth, Flayn, and Anna. And don't sequels almost always have bigger roster sizes than the original? What I'm trying to say is that it could be a very real possibility that...

(Almost)

I daresay we'll probably have more characters than the first game because we're comparing the roster of a game with a particularly rough development cycle to the potential roster of a game with seemingly everything in the world going for it. "Everyone is here" is a distinct possibility.

 

But that's just my opinion.

[ThePrimeOne]

I missed out on ranking Petra, but since she's a favourite of mine, I'll just say here she gets a 9/10 from me. While I think this metric specifically doesn't mean a whole lot on its own, I think being consistently top 20 for the women in FEH CYL despite already being in the game says a lot more for her popularity than most people will give her credit for. Just something to think about, idk.

 

As for Lorenz, he's a clean 7/10. Got better chances than Raphael and Ignatz (not saying much lol), but not so much Marianne and Lysithea, as others have said.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Lorenz is the most likely boy from the Golden Deer to be playable - aside from Claude, of course. He has a Crest associated with the single-best Hero's Relic in the game, and he's the most obvious "Dark Knight" candidate for Warriors. Sure, they could give Thyrsus to Lysithea instead, but a big part of Lysithea's characterization is disliking her Crests, so having her use a Hero's Relic feels counter-thematic. If the Golden Deer have 2 boys and 2 girls, then Lorenz is pretty much a given. I suppose they could have 3 girls and just Claude, but I really don't see either Marianne (the depressed girl who hates to fight) or Leonie (Crestless, plot-irrelevant, gets a lot of heat for her Jeralt obsession) getting in ahead of him. I'm putting him at 8 out of 10.

11 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Lorenz isn't tied to the Axe of Ukronsova (sorry, probably misspelling it) any more than Lysithea is; he's not an axe-user, he has no boon in axes or the other ranks associated with axes (flight and armour), and his special magic combat art which is core to his identity as a hybrid unit is lance-related, and he consistently appears in lance-using classes as a guest/enemy. If they give characters a single identity in Three Hopes (I feel that using a class system is more likely, especially if the cast is large enough that Lorenz gets in), I find it highly unlikely he'll be a Great Knight.

Yeah, the connection between having a Crest and using its associated Saintly Weapon is such a nothingburger. Like, sure, you get slightly higher healing between turns. But everyone with a Crest gets healing. Actually, everyone gets healing, even the Crestless, they just heal less. The whole point of the Leonhardt paralogue was that Leonie could use The Inexhaustible, regardless of Crest. The best candidate for the Axe of Ukonvasara is whoever you have in an Axe build, whether it's Wyvern Lord Hilda, Fortress Knight Dedue, or War Master Alois.

[Dark Holy Elf]

 

6 hours ago, ThePrimeOne said:

While I think this metric specifically doesn't mean a whole lot on its own, I think being consistently top 20 for the women in FEH CYL despite already being in the game says a lot more for her popularity than most people will give her credit for. Just something to think about, idk.

She wasn't top 20 in either CYL4 or 5, though admittedly she was close (in the 40's overall, so presumably in the 20's for just women). She is certainly relatively popular, just less popular than the other three Eagles women, and Hubert also gets a nod for his plot role.

[ThePrimeOne]

3 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

 

She wasn't top 20 in either CYL4 or 5, though admittedly she was close (in the 40's overall, so presumably in the 20's for just women). She is certainly relatively popular, just less popular than the other three Eagles women, and Hubert also gets a nod for his plot role.

...Idk where I got that from then lol, but breaking top 20 for women in CYL 6 and hanging around the 20s pretty consistently before that (despite already being in the game) still reinforces my point earlier. And considering the conscious decision by IS/KT to have a playable foreigner character associated with each house, I don't see them straying away from that in Three Hopes, even if they cut down on the playable characters.

Edited March 8, 2022 by ThePrimeOne

[Fabulously Olivier]

Lorenz averages 6.33.

 

Day 14 - Shamir

 

I would consider Shamir to be basically be one-sidedly inseperable to Catherine. Catherine can make it without Shamir, but not vice versa, but both are reasonably likely. I'll give Shamir a 6/10 as such.

 

As for want score, 7/10. I like her, but I don't know when I would honestly use her over Bernie.

[ciphertul]

Shamir, I’m going with a 7/10 for her. I don’t see her as inseparable from Catherine. If we take Bernie as a mounted archer (which she really has no reason not to be) then it leave Shamir’s competition as Ash and Ignatz, I can’t see either getting in over her in terms of popularity.

As for personal want she is another 10/10, I got a soft spot for the aloof beauties and she is definitely one. I just nearly capped her in my last 3H playthru too.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Shamir's got multiple FEH forms and Catherine does not; she's easily available to the Eagles and Catherine is not; she's definitely the more popular one. I think Shamir and no Catherine is definitely more likely than the reverse.

But not that likely. Shamir gets a 4/10, and I wonder if I'm being generous. "All students" is a possibility which does not guarantee Shamir. Ultimately I think she attracts a bit more attention than Raphael does, enough to offset this. Definitely below Petra, definitely below Flayn/Seteth,... possibly still the third most likely church/staff character?

For personal want, 5/10. I'm pretty apathetic on Shamir as a character overall but I like the perspective she brings to the game, and I like her voice work a lot.

[vanguard333]

Shamir... she's not exactly story-relevant, nor is she exactly popular. That said, she is definitely the most obvious choice for a non-mounted archer as Bernadetta is likely to be a bow knight. I'd say 5/10.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

If Shamir gets in, it'll only be on Catherine's coattails. She'd be an Archer type, but we already have Claude, and a solid chance at Bernadetta. She has no Crest and no associated weapon. On the flip side, if Dorothea gets in (and I think she will), then Shamir means one fewer voice actor they'll need to bring back. She's also the only Dagdan, but does that mean anything? I think she's a little more likely than the least-likely students, so I'll grant her 5 out of 10.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Shamir is another character like Petra or Lorenz that isn't particularly unlikely, but not exactly likely, either. She may be more popular than Catherine, but Catherine is more important and more likely to get in. If Shamir gets in, it'll be following Catherine. 6/10

[Florete]

I really don't think Shamir is reliant on Catherine like some people are suggesting. Maybe it's because Crimson Flower was my first TH route and I recruited Shamir, but I can see them apart as easily as I can see them together.

And I do think she has a decent shot. Based on CYL results, at least, she's the most popular faculty member, getting the most votes by a decent margin in CYL4 and being the only one to continue getting >1,000 votes in the years since. If we get faculty at all I think she'll be there, but it's not impossible faculty will be skipped entirely.

65% sounds appropriate...which looks like it makes me above the common scores for once.

3 hours ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

On the flip side, if Dorothea gets in (and I think she will), then Shamir means one fewer voice actor they'll need to bring back.

Only in English.

[ciphertul]

1 minute ago, Florete said:

Only in English.

Even if it's only free DLC, I see us getting both English and Japanese like FEW had.

[ThePrimeOne]

Personally, I'd give Shamir a 10/10, but unfortunately, this isn't ranked based on looks.

 

Her actual chances of being playable are at least a solid 7, I'd say. While she's not very story relevant as an individual, being a part of the Knights of Seiros, who are extremely relevant to the Three House story definitely bumps up her chances, or at the very least, keeps her from being below a 7 imo.