Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[vanguard333]

Bernadetta is extremely popular, and she would have a lot to contribute. The one issue I see with her likelihood is that there are other archer characters who have plot/character-dynamic reasons for being included instead of her: Ashe because of Lonato's revolt, and Leonie because of Jeralt. Those admittedly aren't much, but they're something, and Bernadetta doesn't really have any ties to the overarching plot of Three Houses or the more plot-relevant characters.

I'd say her likelihood is a 9/10.

Edited February 24, 2022 by vanguard333

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

I'm gonna cut against the grain and put Bernadetta at 7/10. She's popular, no doubt, but if we were to assume a limited cast (i.e. 2 women and 2 men from the Black Eagles), I would honestly put Dorothea ahead of her. If we expand to 5 or 6 members of the house, she's probably in, but I wouldn't count out Petra and Ferdinand von Aegir yet, either. Working in her favor is that she's the most obvious unconfirmed Archer candidate, since we know Claude is in, and I'm comfortable saying Ashe, Ignatz, and Cyril are all less likely than her (not that I'm happy about it).

[Fabulously Olivier]

1 hour ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

I'm gonna cut against the grain and put Bernadetta at 7/10. She's popular, no doubt, but if we were to assume a limited cast (i.e. 2 women and 2 men from the Black Eagles), I would honestly put Dorothea ahead of her. If we expand to 5 or 6 members of the house, she's probably in, but I wouldn't count out Petra and Ferdinand von Aegir yet, either. Working in her favor is that she's the most obvious unconfirmed Archer candidate, since we know Claude is in, and I'm comfortable saying Ashe, Ignatz, and Cyril are all less likely than her (not that I'm happy about it).

I reallllly rate Dorothea's chances lower. Still high, but lower. No crest, no prf, more competition, less popularity (ESPECIALLY in Japan), and no plot importance advantage. But that's a discussion to go into later. Probably quite a bit later on this rotation. As honestly, on the BE front, I'm more interested in getting to rating... almost everyone else.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

19 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I reallllly rate Dorothea's chances lower. Still high, but lower. No crest, no prf, more competition, less popularity (ESPECIALLY in Japan), and no plot importance advantage. But that's a discussion to go into later. Probably quite a bit later on this rotation. As honestly, on the BE front, I'm more interested in getting to rating... almost everyone else.

Huh. This is somewhat anecdotal, but just about every time I see the "Online Activities" pop-ups in the loading screen, Dorothea is at or near the top. Generally above Bernadetta (who, granted, is popular in her own right), which suggests that more people are using Dorothea. Perhaps this has changed since I all-but-stopped playing 3H, though?

[Fabulously Olivier]

2 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Huh. This is somewhat anecdotal, but just about every time I see the "Online Activities" pop-ups in the loading screen, Dorothea is at or near the top. Generally above Bernadetta (who, granted, is popular in her own right), which suggests that more people are using Dorothea. Perhaps this has changed since I all-but-stopped playing 3H, though?

I mean, usage percentages are going to depend heavily on unit viability, and Bernadetta's pretty difficult to get the most out of. Whereas Dorothea's rocking a great spell list and is one of the easiest characters to recruit.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

20 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I mean, usage percentages are going to depend heavily on unit viability, and Bernadetta's pretty difficult to get the most out of. Whereas Dorothea's rocking a great spell list and is one of the easiest characters to recruit.

Agreed that Dorothea is easier to recruit. I wound up doing that accidentally on my first playthrough.

As for viability, if I'm not mistaken, Bernadetta was rated higher than Dorothea in the community rating project. Of course, that's not necessarily indicative of the broader consensus. And Dorothea is probably easier to use, since Vengeance strats require setup. Plus, one of Dorothea's biggest flaws (IMO) is her "earlygame Mage" struggles (that is to say, having 4 Thunder charges, and being useless for the rest of the map), which isn't so much the case for out-of-house Dorothea.

[Fabulously Olivier]

3 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Agreed that Dorothea is easier to recruit. I wound up doing that accidentally on my first playthrough.

As for viability, if I'm not mistaken, Bernadetta was rated higher than Dorothea in the community rating project. Of course, that's not necessarily indicative of the broader consensus. And Dorothea is probably easier to use, since Vengeance strats require setup. Plus, one of Dorothea's biggest flaws (IMO) is her "earlygame Mage" struggles (that is to say, having 4 Thunder charges, and being useless for the rest of the map), which isn't so much the case for out-of-house Dorothea.

Bernadetta's hardcore community rating is good because she's an awesome unit, used correctly. Her practical viability for most players, less so.

[vanguard333]

55 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I reallllly rate Dorothea's chances lower. Still high, but lower. No crest, no prf, more competition, less popularity (ESPECIALLY in Japan), and no plot importance advantage. But that's a discussion to go into later. Probably quite a bit later on this rotation. As honestly, on the BE front, I'm more interested in getting to rating... almost everyone else.

Bernadetta doesn't exactly have a plot advantage either. The closest thing Bernadetta has to plot importance is that her dad was one of the seven nobles that betrayed the emperor.

And, honestly, if there's one thing that holds back Bernadetta's chances, it would be her lack of story importance. The other archer characters, such as Ashe and Leonie, aren't as popular, but Ashe does have being the adopted son of minor antagonist Lonato who was the unwitting pawn of a group that themselves were unwitting pawns of the Flame Emperor and TWSITD; not much, but it is something.

[Fabulously Olivier]

2 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

Bernadetta doesn't exactly have a plot advantage either. The closest thing Bernadetta has to plot importance is that her dad was one of the seven nobles that betrayed the emperor.

And, honestly, if there's one thing that holds back Bernadetta's chances, it would be her lack of story importance. The other archer characters, such as Ashe and Leonie, aren't as popular, but Ashe does have being the adopted son of minor antagonist Lonato who was the unwitting pawn of a group that themselves were unwitting pawns of the Flame Emperor and TWSITD; not much, but it is something.

You misinterpret my statement. Plot importance would be an advantage over Bernadetta for most other characters, but neither Bernadetta nor Dorothea have it. It's strictly a popularity contest for them.

[lenticular]

6/10. More likely than not, but I wouldn't be shocked if she doesn't make it. Yes, she's popular, but I don't think that she's so overwhelmingly popular that the devs are going to see her as a must-include. I don't think that anyone in Three Houses (except for the house leaders) is that popular, honestly. I can only imagine that she'll be a character who they'll at least seriously think about including, but I could easily see her falling by the wayside in the name of balance of gender/house/social class/etc.

[vanguard333]

5 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

You misinterpret my statement. Plot importance would be an advantage over Bernadetta for most other characters, but neither Bernadetta nor Dorothea have it. It's strictly a popularity contest for them.

Ah, I see. My mistake.

[Fabulously Olivier]

15 minutes ago, lenticular said:

6/10. More likely than not, but I wouldn't be shocked if she doesn't make it. Yes, she's popular, but I don't think that she's so overwhelmingly popular that the devs are going to see her as a must-include. I don't think that anyone in Three Houses (except for the house leaders) is that popular, honestly. I can only imagine that she'll be a character who they'll at least seriously think about including, but I could easily see her falling by the wayside in the name of balance of gender/house/social class/etc.

House balance might be a factor, but if so (and it's a big if with how much favoritism BE get), it's a factor for every characters ratings. 

 

Koei really doesn't care about gender balance. Lest we forget that FEW was 12/20 male/female. It was so lopsided that even I routinely have all female parties; it just naturally happens when you prioritize support acquisition in your unit deployment.

 

Social class is definitely not something anyone in charge is taking into account. Like, yeah... no. Maybe nationality, since that's a tangible factor. But even that might be tangential as Claude already covers Almyra and Petra is popular (and arguably important).

Edited February 24, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Etrurian emperor]

41 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

And, honestly, if there's one thing that holds back Bernadetta's chances, it would be her lack of story importance. The other archer characters, such as Ashe and Leonie, aren't as popular, but Ashe does have being the adopted son of minor antagonist Lonato who was the unwitting pawn of a group that themselves were unwitting pawns of the Flame Emperor and TWSITD; not much, but it is something.

Isn't Leonie more a cavalry? That's the class she ends up with as your enemy. And it helps her better mimic Jeralt. 

Ashe might be a good bet in the sense that he's both very popular and at least a bit plot important. But on the other hand compared to all the other Blion males he's also the easiest to ditch since he doesn't have a childhood friendship with Dimitri. Also Lonato might not even show up if the main focus is going to be on the war arc. 

[vanguard333]

1 minute ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Isn't Leonie more a cavalry? That's the class she ends up with as your enemy. And it helps her better mimic Jeralt. 

Ashe might be a good bet in the sense that he's both very popular and at least a bit plot important. But on the other hand compared to all the other Blion males he's also the easiest to ditch since he doesn't have a childhood friendship with Dimitri. Also Lonato might not even show up if the main focus is going to be on the war arc. 

Her proficiencies are lance, bow and horse, so while her default class line is the cavalier line, she is geared toward archery as an obvious and just-as-viable alternative, and her paralogue is about her and Linhardt obtaining a sacred bow from a turtle-dragon, so I count her as one of the potential archers.

Good point about Ashe.

[ciphertul]

1 minute ago, vanguard333 said:

Her proficiencies are lance, bow and horse, so while her default class line is the cavalier line, she is geared toward archery as an obvious and just-as-viable alternative, and her paralogue is about her and Linhardt obtaining a sacred bow from a turtle-dragon, so I count her as one of the potential archers.

Good point about Ashe.

So then why are both Leonie and Bernie being seen as archers? Bernie would and should be a bow knight.

[vanguard333]

58 minutes ago, ciphertul said:

So then why are both Leonie and Bernie being seen as archers? Bernie would and should be a bow knight.

What do you mean? When I say "archer", I just mean the archer -> sniper -> bow knight class line in general, so you asking, "Why archer; she should be a bow knight", is, to me, like asking, "Why a finger? It should be a thumb".

[ciphertul]

Just now, vanguard333 said:

What do you mean? When I say "archer", I just mean the archer -> sniper -> bow knight class line in general, so you asking, "Why archer; she should be a bow knight", is, to me, like asking, "Why a finger? It should be a thumb".

Because I guarantee that archer/sniper and bow knight have different move sets even with dismounting.

[vikingsfan92]

 If for some silly reason they can only do one more Black Eagles female other than Edelgard I actually think Petra has the best chance mainly because Brigid and the possibility of a map or two being set there seems pretty high.  Brigid is pretty unique in its not Fodland and has a unique relationship with the empire that depends a bit on the route. Being not in Fodland lets them do a more creative map if they choose to do so as well.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Bernadetta's rating averages out to 8.68/10.

 

Day 3: Raphael

 

Okay, this one is difficult for me. Because I think Raphael's chances are very much dependent on how many students are added. If it's 4 per house, I think it will just be Claude and the popular ladies. If it's 5 per house, I think he's competing with Lorenz for that spot and has slightly better odds, where it's his popularity and reduced role competition vs. Lorenz' importance. And if it's 6 per house, I think he's in over Leonie and Ignatz for sure. Because I'm actually of the opinion that it will be at least 5 per house, I think I'll split the difference and give Raphael an even 5/10. Boring, I know.

 

As for my "want" score, I give Raphael a 2/10. He isn't my least favorite 3H character, but he's close. If added, I would probably play him because he falls into that warrior/grappler category that I really want to play. But I'd be lying if I said I honestly wouldn't prefer to play every other potential character in that category - Caspar, Balthus, and even Alois - much, much more.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

Hmm… for him I have to give a 5/10 as well low popularity but little role competition. I personally only see him and Balthus as brawlers.

My personal scale for him is 1/10.

Edited February 25, 2022 by ciphertul

[Florete]

Raphael - 30%. He's only getting in if all students get in.

[Use the Falchion]

Raphael is less likely to get in on his own merits, since he's a pretty shallow character with not a lot to bring to the table. Don't get me wrong, I love the dude and he's almost always one of my MVPs during late-game stuff, but he's not that popular AFAIK (I could be wrong though!) and won't be needed unless there's a brawler/fist class in the game. If there isn't that class, then he's relegated to axes, and he's fourth in line for hypothetical units for that IMO. (Hilda > Annette > Caspar > Raphael)

Right now, I'm putting him at a 3/10.

Personal score is about a 6/10. I like him over Balthus and Alois, but I won't be shedding tears either way. 

[Fabulously Olivier]

His chances also depend pretty heavily on the class system of the game. If it's unchangeable, his brawler class raises his chances a bit. If there's any kind of class changing, his chances go way down because really popular characters like Byleth, Rhea, and Felix also have brawling affinities. Err, that is unless such a class changing system essentially clones almost everyone and therefore potentially opens the gates for a full roster.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Personally, I think we're getting at least the house leaders + three students, not including Byleth, the church staff, and new OCs. With that said, that unfortunately puts Raphael on the low end of the possibility chart. As far as Golden Deer go, I think Claude (duh), Hilda, Lysithea, and Marianne are all above him, and Lorenz is about the same. He's above Leonie and Ignatz, though! What would really push Raphael in is his class, but even then, his chances are lower. 5/10

[vanguard333]

I think his chances are really unlikely. He has no plot relevance, almost every other Golden Deer student outshines him in popularity, and brawler/brigand can be done by other people such as Caspar and Alois. Another thing holding him back is that you can't really include him without including Ignatz, as the two are essentially written to be inseparable, and I don't think Ignatz is likely either.

Overall, 1/10.