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Three Hopes - Rate their Chances


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6/10 

Ultimately Annette kinda has the same problem as Ashe. She's not particularly tight with Dimitri and is thus a Blion that can be skipped more easily. Her importance to Gilbert might also be more of a drawback since its doubtful her very unpopular deadbeat dad is getting into the game. 

On the other hand Annette is well liked and she'd be easy to implement by just making her play a lot like Lissa. Both are axe wielding smol girls with a touch of magic so implementing her should be relatively easy. Just a matter of adjusting Lissa's model. 

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Annette has a decent enough chance, I think. She has her relationship with Gilbert, sure, but I think what really gives her a decent chance is her class. She would basically be the Lissa of this game, and I can't think of any other Three Houses character that could fill that roll. However, the drawback is simply that multiple other Blue Lions are more popular and have a history with Dimitri. 6/10

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Oof. Annette is quite possibly my favorite character in the game, but honestly? I don't see her chances as particularly good. As far as obvious Mage candidates go, Dorothea and Lysithea are ahead of her. And in terms of her fellow Blue Lions, I think Dedue and Dimitri's Friend Crew are all more likely. I could see her in if we got 6 Blue Lions, but it'd be weird to imagine her in the game without Mercedes (and vice-versa). Having a potential personal weapon in the Crusher is slightly in her favor, although would that be able to coexist with a Mage moveset? In any case, I think her chances are a bit higher than the "all students from the three houses are in it" floor, so I'll put her at 5 out of 10. Hopefully, she'll be back to grace us with more of her silly songs, but I won't be holding my breath for it.

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Annette's definitely one of the less likely Lions, but honestly still moderately likely. I think she's more likely if the game either (a) chooses to go for gender balance within each house, (b) outright favours women [not impossible], or (c) throws house balance to the wind and just plain has more Lions (they're possibly the "deepest" house for popularity). And of course, she gets in with the full student roster, which remains possible. 6/10.

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Annette averages 5.86.

 

Day 7 - Caspar

 

Caspar has a lot going against him. Least popular character of the most popular house. No prf or crest. Has virtually identical strengths to 3 other characters. So I have to go 3/10.

 

As for want score, 8/10. Caspar isn't my favorite student or anything, but his earnest Shounen protag energy is perfect for a musou, and I'd much rather play him than any of the other warrior/grapplers, except for Balthus.

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Caspar is easily the least likely Black Eagles student, and probably one of the lesser likely characters in general. No crest, no special weapon, his class could be shared with a couple other more likely characters, and no deep history with the important story characters. 4/10

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Caspar... On the one hand, he is indeed less popular than the rest of the Black Eagles, and he has extremely limited story relevance. On the other hand, someone has to be the brawler unit and we all agreed that Raphael was unlikely.

So, I'd give him a 5/10.

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Caspar is only in if all the students are in, possibly excepting the Ashen Wolves. So, like Raphael, I'm giving him a 4 out of 10.

In terms of fulfilling a "Brawler" archetype, if characters get more than one class, I could see Felix, Dedue, and Teach all doing this. Maybe Catherine, too, if she gets in.

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3/10 

I like Caspar, but sadly, he’s arguably one of the worst units in the game, and I’ve tried several times to make home work, no avail. He’s doesn’t even have crests or signature weapon to make him stand out. The only way I’m seeing is if all students get in. 

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Caspar's a bit more popular than Raphael, but I'm not sure how much it matters in practice. I have a pretty hard time seeing him get in unless all students do. I'll also join the 3/10 crowd... I think he's more likely than Raph, but not enough for a full point.

14 hours ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

No prf or crest.

Hmm, I don't think these matter at all. Even if Prfs end up relevant for the gameplay of Three Hopes (not a guarantee by any means), both FEW1 and FEH have shown that the devs are quite happy to create one for a new game if needed.

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Caspar averages out to 3.56.

 

Day 8 - Marianne

 

Marianne is one of those characters who I can't see not making the roster. So, 10/10. The more interesting question is what this highly flexible unit could be - holy knight, gremory, falcon knight, or dancer. Holy Knight with sword is my preference.

 

As for want score, also a 10/10. Marianne is a fan favorite for a reason, and she deserves it.

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If there's a character to guarantee my purchase of this game it would be Marianne, and she's popular among the fan base so 10/10. I'm very curious with what they'll do with her. We've already seen in FEH that they're open to creativity, but still no Blutgang rep.

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I mean...I think Marianne is likely, but she's not 100% and I'm kind of surprised to see literally everyone so far giving her that. In a world where only 4 of each house get in, I could absolutely see GD being Claude, Hilda, Lysithea, and Lorenz. I do wonder exactly how popular Marianne actually is; she really only won CYL due to still not being in FEH at the time, though whether or not Koei Tecmo take that into account is unknown. Keep in mind Bernadetta got a whopping 20k+ more votes than Marianne in CYL4 while Three Houses itself was still at the height of its popularity. She was also beaten by Dorothea that year, though by a much smaller margin (and she was beaten by Edelgard, Lysithea, and Byleth, of course). She's certainly popular, but unlike someone like Bernadetta, I don't see her being a "too popular not to make it" choice, especially with Claude, Hilda, and Lysithea all ahead of her (either by popularity or, in Hilda's case, already in). And honestly, with Bernadetta and Marianne being similar character archetypes and Bernie being the clearly more popular of the two, I could see them opting to only include Bernadetta if they have to.

I give Marianne a 75%, or 7.5/10.

(I haven't rated the past few days because I didn't know what to rate/didn't have much to say about them)

Edited by Florete
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There is almost no way Marianne isn't getting in. She's incredibly popular (I know it's a small sample, but she came second to Claude on this site's "most popular golden deer" poll), her combination of faith magic and a unique magic sword gives her plenty to work with, a variation of her sidequest would make for a great mission in this game, etc. The only thing she doesn't have is plot-relevance; not unless they decide to make her ancestor more relevant in this game's plot (which I could see them doing, to be honest).

I'd say 10/10. It should probably be a 9 given her lack of plot-relevance, but I'm going to say 10.

Edited by vanguard333
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Marianne's popular, but not "absolutely certain to get in" popular... @Florete is spot on that she's behind Lysithea and Hilda (due to the latter already being in), so she needs there to be at least four Deer / at least three women from the Deer. She's likely, but there's a non-zero chance she'll miss the cut if the roster is small. Same as Bernadetta. Might be slightly lower if anything, but not enough for a rank difference. More likely than Dedue and everyone else we've rated. 9/10.

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Marianne averages out to 9.61.

 

Day 9 - Seteth

 

Seteth has a lot going for him. Plot importance, being essentially the lord of Silver Snow, surprisingly low competition for his canon class, and decent popularity as far as I'm aware. Solid 8/10 character, and that might be me not giving enough credit.

 

As for want score, 10/10. Seteth is one of 3H's best-written characters and a badass unit.

Edited by Fabulously Olivier
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Marianne really got almost a full point more than Bernadetta? I don't even like Bernadetta, but that just feels so wrong.

Seteth, uhhhh.....70%, I'd say. He's very likely to have a presence in the story, but he's easier to pass on for playable characters if they need to. And if they want to specifically include all students that also lowers his chances since it leaves less room for faculty. But he's probably the 1st or 2nd most likely of the faculty alongside Shamir.

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