Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[vikingsfan92]

I actually think Shamir is slightly more likely to appear over Catherine if one had to be dropped. I do think Catherine not being playable in CF hurts her a bit but the bigger reason is I feel like Shamir simply has a popularity edge. I also don't think they are as that inseparable either as in the white cloud section of the story they did things independently.

[Use the Falchion]

Shamir is a 6/10 on her own (I want her to be a 7/10, but I can't justify that sadly), a 10/10 if Catherine makes it into the game IMO, and a 10/10 personal desire. 

I'll put her down as an 8.67/10 overall, or a 9/10 if we need whole numbers. 

[Fabulously Olivier]

Shamir averages a 6.13.

 

Today is the Day 15, and we're talking about the King of Grappling!

 

I give Balthus a 4/10. Probably a bit more likely than Hapi, but still unlikely. I could maybe see a scenario where Raphael doesn't make it, but they put in Balthus as dlc to add the brawler moveset. The only pair of prf gauntlets have to be worth something.

 

As for want score - 10/10. The highest in the game, in fact. I think he'd be a blast to play.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

Balthus is next then? Well I gotta give him a 3/10 I just don’t see it, with brawling as now only focused on Raphael and Balthus with the other potential user having a more likely different weapon he got a pretty small chance.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Looking at Balthus, I think he's the least likely among the Ashen Wolves. Yuri, as the "leader" is the most likely, and getting "one boy, one girl" is more probable than getting "two boys". Of course, Balthus is in if all the Ashen Wolves are, which I think there's a decent chance of, at least as of the DLC. And it's not as though Raphael, the unit most like him, is a done deal. I'll put him at 3 out of 10.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Shanty Pete's 1st Mate
Corrected a mistake.

[Dark Holy Elf]

It's only by a small margin so I should probably not act like it's anything more than noise, but Shamir getting rated higher than Petra is perhaps the result so far I'm least able to understand.

Balthus gets 3/10, only in if all the Wolves are. He's the least popular of them, and by a significant margin. Gender balance concerns could also work against him, since Yuri's a lock if any Wolves get in.

For personal like, 6/10. I generally find that one weakness of 3H's (normally outstanding) character writing is that their attempts at comic characters are a mixed bag, but Balthus legit makes me laugh. I don't have much opinion on him past that. 

[ciphertul]

Okay, newfound info has popped up. Brawlers wielding iron gauntlets can be seen in the 3 hopes trailer so a brawling moveset will be in game. No idea if it will be playable thou. So with this info I have to get a +1 to both Balthus and Raphael since they potentially have a base model and moveset already.

[Fabulously Olivier]

35 minutes ago, ciphertul said:

Okay, newfound info has popped up. Brawlers wielding iron gauntlets can be seen in the 3 hopes trailer so a brawling moveset will be in game. No idea if it will be playable thou. So with this info I have to get a +1 to both Balthus and Raphael since they potentially have a base model and moveset already.

In theory, everyone should have a base model since 3H is built on the FEW engine. One couldn't ask for an easier foundation for a Warriors game. Which is why it surprises me that they are making more work for themselves with new outfits.

[vanguard333]

Being a DLC character already greatly reduces his likelihood for me. Persona 5 Strikers didn't include Kasumi/Sumire, and Age of Calamity didn't include Monk Maz Koshia, so I see no reason to believe that Three Hopes will include any post-release characters, even as DLC.

@Fabulously Olivier You're far more familiar with these Warriors crossover games than I am; am I right in saying that there's precedent for Warriors crossovers just flat out not using any characters that weren't included in the original game's initial release (Persona 5 Strikers not having any Royal-exclusive characters, Age of Calamity not having any Breath of the Wild DLC characters, etc.)?

 

Balthus gets a 2/10 from me. It would be a 1/10 if not for lack of there being any likely brawler.

Edited March 9, 2022 by vanguard333

[Fabulously Olivier]

9 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

Being a DLC character already greatly reduces his likelihood for me. Persona 5 Strikers didn't include Kasumi/Sumire, and Age of Calamity didn't include Monk Maz Koshia, so I see no reason to believe that Three Hopes will include any post-release characters, even as DLC.

@Fabulously Olivier You're far more familiar with these Warriors crossover games than I am; am I right in saying that there's precedent for Warriors crossovers just flat out not using any characters that weren't included in the original game's initial release (Persona 5 Strikers not having any Royal-exclusive characters, Age of Calamity not having any Breath of the Wild DLC characters, etc.)?

 

Balthus gets a 2/10 from me. It would be a 1/10 if not for lack of there being any likely brawler.

So, Persona 5 Strikers is the only precedent that I'm aware of, and that's because Strikers is explicitly a sequel to Persona 5, not the non-canon alternate timeline of Persona 5 Royal. The canonicity of Cindered Shadows doesn't really mean anything to FEW since no one route is canon (or all of them are).

Age of Calamity is of course precedent for the total opposite, including some dlc-related characters from BotW (like the monk).

[vanguard333]

5 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

So, Persona 5 Strikers is the only precedent that I'm aware of, and that's because Strikers is explicitly a sequel to Persona 5, not the non-canon alternate timeline of Persona 5 Royal. The canonicity of Cindered Shadows doesn't really mean anything to FEW since no one route is canon (or all of them are).

Age of Calamity is of course precedent for the total opposite, including some dlc-related characters from BotW (like the monk).

I see; I don't know enough about Persona; I thought the later edition of the game (i.e. royal) would be the canon one because that's how it normally is with games.

Wait; the monk was added to Age of Calamity? I saw all the DLC trailers and such and never saw him be announced as a playable fighter.

[Fabulously Olivier]

2 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

I see; I don't know enough about Persona; I thought the later edition of the game (i.e. royal) would be the canon one because that's how it normally is with games.

Wait; the monk was added to Age of Calamity? I saw all the DLC trailers and such and never saw him be announced as a playable fighter.

https://www.nintendolife.com/guides/hyrule-warriors-age-of-calamity-full-roster-every-playable-character-and-unique-action

 

Not just in the game, but base game at that.

[vanguard333]

10 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

https://www.nintendolife.com/guides/hyrule-warriors-age-of-calamity-full-roster-every-playable-character-and-unique-action

 

Not just in the game, but base game at that.

Ah; he was in the base game; that would explain how I had no idea.

Never mind then. Discount everything I've said about the DLC characters (I'm serious; it was all built on incorrect information).

Edited March 9, 2022 by vanguard333

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Wow, I really think Balthus is being pretty seriously undersold here. Is there a chance that Yuri will be the only Ashen Wolf? Yes. Is there a chance we get NO Ashen Wolves, even as DLC? Yes. But I really don't think any of that will happen. I'm pretty certain we will get Ashen Wolves, and more than just Yuri. Balthus is at the very least more likely than Hapi, in my opinion. Especially with DLC being considered, his class alone puts him above some others. 6/10

[ThePrimeOne]

9/10 for Balthus, with pretty much the same reasoning as I had for Hapi.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Balthus' score sure is going to be unexpectedly interesting. I mean, he's basically run the full range of ratings.

[Use the Falchion]

Balthus is a 3/10 on potential and a 3/10 on desire. I don't care for Balthus. I don't like his main personality, I don't like his post-time-skip design, and he's never been a good unit for me. (But if there is any advice on making him one, I'll gladly take it!) The only reasons I'd want him in is because I want Hapi and Constance in and because I want everyone already playable in Three Houses to be playable in this one. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Use the Falchion

[Dark Holy Elf]

5 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I'm pretty certain we will get Ashen Wolves, and more than just Yuri. Balthus is at the very least more likely than Hapi, in my opinion. Especially with DLC being considered, his class alone puts him above some others.

Balthus is absolutely not more likely than Hapi.

• Hapi is significantly more popular (1490 votes vs 351 in CYL6).
• Hapi's class (mounted dark mage) is just as unique as Balthus's, if that is deemed to matter. (Constance's is significantly more unique still, of course.)
• If we get more than one but less than four wolves, Yuri+Balthus is the least plausible outcome, for reasons of both popularity and gender balance. Yuri+Constance or Yuri+Hapi would be less surprising.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

1 hour ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Balthus is absolutely not more likely than Hapi.

• Hapi is significantly more popular (1490 votes vs 351 in CYL6).
• Hapi's class (mounted dark mage) is just as unique as Balthus's, if that is deemed to matter. (Constance's is significantly more unique still, of course.)
• If we get more than one but less than four wolves, Yuri+Balthus is the least plausible outcome, for reasons of both popularity and gender balance. Yuri+Constance or Yuri+Hapi would be less surprising.

Balthus is absolutely more likely than Hapi.

• You all are putting far too much significance in CYL votes. You know who else scored significantly worse than Hapi? Catherine. I guess Catherine is a 1/10 NEVER HAPPENING character, huh?
• I disagree, honestly Warriors doesn't differentiate magic THAT much. Aside from that, other potential mounted magic users (such as Lorenz) could fill her slot just as well as Raphael could fill Balthus's.
• If we get more than one but less than four wolves, Yuri+Balthus is absolutely not the least plausible outcome. Yuri+Constance would probably be the most likely pairing, but Yuri+Hapi is definitely the least likely.

Honestly, I feel like people are putting Balthus so low and Hapi higher for no other reason than gender, and that's silly.

[vikingsfan92]

I feel the ashen wolves are either all in or not in at all with no middle ground. But if one somehow does get in other than Yuri and they limit it two its probably going to be Hapi and probably not for the reason you are thinking. The real reason Hapi is the second most likely ashen wolf for me is her gimmick where her sighs brings in monsters which sounds like the perfect plot device for justifying maps.

[ciphertul]

6 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Balthus is absolutely more likely than Hapi.

• You all are putting far too much significance in CYL votes. You know who else scored significantly worse than Hapi? Catherine. I guess Catherine is a 1/10 NEVER HAPPENING character, huh?
• I disagree, honestly Warriors doesn't differentiate magic THAT much. Aside from that, other potential mounted magic users (such as Lorenz) could fill her slot just as well as Raphael could fill Balthus's.
• If we get more than one but less than four wolves, Yuri+Balthus is absolutely not the least plausible outcome. Yuri+Constance would probably be the most likely pairing, but Yuri+Hapi is definitely the least likely.

Honestly, I feel like people are putting Balthus so low and Hapi higher for no other reason than gender, and that's silly.

You are clear under stating how important popularity is. Your Catherine point doesn’t even work, why? Because she actually has a presence in the story, Balthus doesn’t. Hapi is the most likely with her popularity, remember that is why they picked Cordelia over Sumia in FEW even though Sumia made much more sense.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Balthus averages 4.25.

 

Day 16 - Ingrid

 

As one of Dimitri's closest confidants and a reasonably popular unit, I'm going 9/10.

 

As for want score - 5/10. Somehow feels like one of the most generic units in the game, while actually not being. (She's unique in being the only canon pegasus knight, but pegasus knights always feel generic to me.) And I'm not overly fond of her personality.

[ciphertul]

Ingrid gets a 9/10 from me too. As stated one of Dimitri close gang and the only Peg Knight.

My personally score is 4/10, I agree with Olivier. Ingrid is so plain and generic, with only a handful of exceptions I generally like the peg knight archetype but Ingrid just doesn’t do it for me.

[Florete]

Ingrid has a lot going in her favor. She's the only canon Pegasus Knight, she's part of Dimitri's entourage, and she's the most popular BL woman. It's honestly hard to imagine her not making it.

90%

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Ingrid is the most likely lady from the Blue Lions. She's the only "canon" Pegasus Knight, she has a minor Crest, and she gets a Hero's Relic associated with said Crest. I wouldn't say she's a "shoo-in", necessarily, but she's close. I'll put her at 8 out of 10.