Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[ciphertul]

I give Alois a 5/10, somethings are in his favor others are against him.

[Use the Falchion]

5/10 sounds about right. I can see him getting into the game pretty easily, but his lack of popularity from what I've seen and more pivotal and vocal roles from other Church of Seiros members hurts his chances. 

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Alois gets a 6/10 from me. Less than Seteth, Flayn, and Catherine, more than Gilbert and (yet-to-be-rated) Cyril, and the same as Shamir. He's captain of the knights, has important character connections, and brings Byleth to Rhea in the first place. But, he isn't popular, and his class could easily be simulated by others.

Personal want is probably an 8/10, I think. He's a pleasant fellow, I like him.

[Dark Holy Elf]

People really think Alois is likely at all? Dude's not recruitable until Chapter 11, not that important, and consistently ranks towards the bottom of popularity polls. He's not getting in above the likes of Shamir or Leonie or Ashe.

2/10. I think he's less likely than any given student, but just above the bottom tier due to his connection with Jeralt (and by proxy, Byleth).

Personal want is 5/10. I don't use Alois much but I do find him generically likable.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

How about Alois? He's a prominent Knight of Seiros, and an old associate of Jeralt, who is recruitable on all routes. Of course, he's also a latecomer, and "middle-aged man" isn't the most ideal candidate for playability, unfortunately. He also has no Crest, and no personal-ish weapon. He might be mildly helped by having a narrative role in Cindered Shadows, and by there not being many obvious Brawling-oriented competitors.

Still, I think his chances are pretty low. Not the least likely character to show up, granted, but close to it. I'll give him a 3 out of 10.

[Etrurian emperor]

I'm going to be charitable and give old Alois a 6/10.

He's not getting in on account of pandering to fans but there are things going for him. He has a very clear connection to Byleth as Jeralt's old buddy and kind of her goofy uncle. This makes him decently versatile as he can be both muscle for the Church but also among the easiest supporters Byleth has should there be some sort of route split. Alois taking the students out training also makes for decent tutorial scenarios.

As for want: 8/10. Alois is an adorable sweetheart who it be a shame to miss. 

[vanguard333]

Alois is captain of the knights, he is an old friend of Jeralt, and as far as brawlers go, his competition is Raphael and Caspar; not exactly the mightiest of competition. That said, he is still a church unit, which has less likelihood than the students.

I'd say... probably 6/10.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Alois gets 4.67.

 

Day 30 - Monica/Kronya

 

This should be an interesting one given that she or someone who looks like her appeared in the trailer, looking somewhat older. Is this the real Monica, a Kronya convinced to flip sides by a time-traveling Byleth, or just a lookalike.

 

Given the trailer, I'll go 4/10. 

 

7/10 want if real Monica. 1/10 want if Kronya - we don't need another Peri.

[ciphertul]

For Monica/Kronya I give a 4/10 as well. I don’t think the mysterious redhead is Monica personally. However I do think it’s a shame we didn’t get a playable Agarthian in game.

I got do the opposite of Olivier here, 7/10 to Kronya and a 1/10 for Monica. I would 100% take a Peri over a Death Knight for my Irredeemable murderer.

[Florete]

80% for Monica/Kronya. The character in the trailer looks too similar to not be her imo, and they're not going to do whatever it is they're doing with her to just leave her off the roster in the end.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Monica is a really weird one for me. On one hand, I'd probably rate her about a 2/10, normally. But then you have the trailer, and that character they show REALLY looks like Monica, and if it truly is her then she's all but confirmed and I'd bump her up to 9/10. I'll split the difference, I suppose, and go more towards the middle with 6/10.

Personal want is 3/10 if Monica, she just isn't interesting enough. 0.1/10 if Kronya, Peri is legitimlegitimately my least favorite playable character in the entire franchise and I'd rather not have another gross garbage character like that on my roster.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Abstain on this one, I don't feel like analyzing a character design in the trailer and that's obviously what it comes down to. Also, real-Monica and Kronya are two different characters and it feels weird to rate both at the same time. (This isn't a knock on the decision in this thread, I understand why it was done. But I'm still gonna abstain.)

Personal want is... 2/10 for real Monica, 3/10 for Kronya. The former is a character who doesn't exist in FE3H and promises little in the way of new niches ("young noblewoman who attended Garreg Mach" is already filled several times over) so I'd be a little disappointed for a roster spot to be "wasted" on her. The latter gets my generic score of "don't care about you".

[Fabulously Olivier]

1 hour ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Abstain on this one, I don't feel like analyzing a character design in the trailer and that's obviously what it comes down to. Also, real-Monica and Kronya are two different characters and it feels weird to rate both at the same time. (This isn't a knock on the decision in this thread, I understand why it was done. But I'm still gonna abstain.)

Personal want is... 2/10 for real Monica, 3/10 for Kronya. The former is a character who doesn't exist in FE3H and promises little in the way of new niches ("young noblewoman who attended Garreg Mach" is already filled several times over) so I'd be a little disappointed for a roster spot to be "wasted" on her. The latter gets my generic score of "don't care about you".

For the same reason that I think it's unnecessary to rate both Jeritza and the Death Knight individually, I don't think there is value in individually rating Monica and Kronya's likelihood. Monica is not a character, unless this game makes her so. For all intents and purposes, she is Kronya.

 

Edit: 

I'll also say that Monica has some potential for a unique perspective. Since she is ostensibly a Garreg Mach alumni who would have had no prior interaction with either Byleth or the other students. She's a product of a different academy with different classmates.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Use the Falchion]

I'll say 7/10 for both. I liked Kronya's design and felt a little betrayed at her death due to Heroes hyping her up and how her story is over in, what? Two to three months in-game? And I always felt bad for Monica's tragedy, particularly with Balthus' paralogue mission (which made me like him even less than I already did). So yeah, I think both could be interesting characters to explore, if either or both get into the game. 

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Wait, was Monica in the trailer? If so, then that means she (or Kronya) will have some function. I don't know if they'll be playable, but then again, why would the trailer show off a non-playable character? I could see her going either way. I'll say 5 out of 10.

2 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Personal want is... 2/10 for real Monica, 3/10 for Kronya. The former is a character who doesn't exist in FE3H and promises little in the way of new niches ("young noblewoman who attended Garreg Mach" is already filled several times over) so I'd be a little disappointed for a roster spot to be "wasted" on her. The latter gets my generic score of "don't care about you".

Maybe we could finally get a better explanation for her disappearance than "LOL we thought she ran away. Oopsie-doodle. Sorry, Baron von Ochs."

1 hour ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

For the same reason that I think it's unnecessary to rate both Jeritza and the Death Knight individually, I don't think there is value in individually rating Monica and Kronya's likelihood. Monica is not a character, unless this game makes her so. For all intents and purposes, she is Kronya.

This doesn't feel like a proper comparison. Jeritza and the Death Knight are the same person. Monica and Kronya are different people who have the same appearance. It's not even clear whether the "Monica" we meet in White Clouds is actually physically the same as the one who disappeared a year past, or instead an act of shapeshifting conducted by Kronya (possibly requiring her blood or something, IDK).

[Use the Falchion]

1 hour ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Wait, was Monica in the trailer? If so, then that means she (or Kronya) will have some function.

I redheaded woman who looks more like Monica than any other character in the game so far can be seen at 1:05-1:06 in the trailer. She shares the same black flower as Edelgard does in her new design as well. This version of Monica wears it as an earring though, while Edelgard has it as attached to her braid/ponytail/side-tail. It's unclear if this is something given to Black Eagles (signifying that maybe this is really Monica), those who side with TSWITD or some faction of them (signaling maybe it's Kronya and she may have been convinced to join Edelgard?) or something else entirely. 

Adding to the confusion is Byleth's duel with our mysterious purple-haired person. If that's the timeskip design (which isn't a guarantee), then Byleth didn't fully fuse with Sothis. Maybe this is backed up by Byleth not having the light green hair? She can seemingly still access some of Sothis' power I assume, as evidenced by the green aura, but isn't Sothis incarnate or anything like that as far as we know. 

Anyways, back to Kronya/Monica, Byleth not fusing may mean the events leading up to Byleth needing to fuse with Sothis never happened, which may mean that Kronya was never sacrificed, freeing her up to be a playable character or a character who never appears, which could allow the true Monica to show up. 

[ThePrimeOne]

She's in the trailer and specifically is obviously going to get major focus in-game, 9/10.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Monica/Kronya get 6.14.

 

Day 31 - Sylvain

 

Seems like a 9/10 character to me. He's part of Dimitri's crew, is more popular than he deserves, and has a fair deal of family drama in the story. He's the most likely Paladin.

 

As for want ... I'll say a 3 or 4 out of 10. I really dislike Sylvain as a person, but this genre is gameplay-first, and he would probably be fun to play.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

Ahh, Sylvain… yea easy 9/10 do to obvious reasons

As for personal 1/10 I hate this guy but I can at least look forward to beating him up in game.

[Fabulously Olivier]

1 hour ago, ciphertul said:

Ahh, Sylvain… yea easy 9/10 do to obvious reasons

As for personal 1/10 I hate this guy but I can at least look forward to beating him up in game.

He really is the must punchable character since Iago and Makalov.

[Etrurian emperor]

Sylvain? Yeah probably 8/10. Crest, childhood friend of Dimitri and heir to one of the most prominent kingdom houses. 

 

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Sylvain is very likely. Part of the Dimitri gang, some mild plot relevance for a chapter, important family, crest and personal weapon, popular. Same as Ingrid, he gets a 9/10

Personal want is around a 6/10. He's a complete jerk, but at least he's somewhat interesting.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Sylvain gets an 7/10, a bit below Ingrid. He's a bit more popular than her, probably, but this if offset by some major crowding for male Lions - Felix is more popular still, while Dedue is more important. The more I think about it, the more I can see him missing out because of this... he suffers from similar issues as Petra.

Personal want is 7/10. Sylvain's a character who early on I counted among my favourites - he's so punchable, yes, but he's so interesting about that. Like a few other characters, I soured on him a bit once I realized there's a notable chunk on his fandom that just thinks he's nice, but I still think he's a brilliantly-written character.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Dark Holy Elf
Revised Sylvain's score down a bit after reading other arguments

[Use the Falchion]

Sulvain is a solid 8/10. He's popular enough and would fit the gameplay well enough, but he's below Felix, Dedue, and Ingrid IMO. 

Personal want is a 7/10. I like Sylvain a lot, but I do wish other aspects of his personality could have been explored. Maybe this is the chance to do so.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Unlike others here, I actually think the Blue Lions, not the Black Eagles, are the most competitive House. Take Sylvain, for instance. He has a Crest, an associated Hero's Relic, and plot significance in Chapter 5. In any other house, he'd be all but guaranteed! But in the B'lions, we have a retainer (and sole representative of Duscur) in Dedue, an even more popular unit (with a major Crest) in Felix, and a longtime friend of Dimitri (with her own Relic) in Ingrid. I could easily see a game where those 3 get in, but Sylvain is kept out. He's a popular character, but his personality is a bit divisive, too.

All told, though, I think Sylvain has very strong odds for being playable in Three Hopes. I just don't think he's quite a "lock". So I'll give him an 8 out of 10.