vanguard333 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 I could see Anna appear as a bonus character if for no other reason than it's Anna; the recurring FE character. I'd say 6/10. At this rate, we might have to start rating the likelihood of joke characters even outside of April Fools Day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fabulously Olivier Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, vanguard333 said: I could see Anna appear as a bonus character if for no other reason than it's Anna; the recurring FE character. I'd say 6/10. At this rate, we might have to start rating the likelihood of joke characters even outside of April Fools Day. In retrospect, Gatekeeper on April Fools Day would have been a good call (except that he's unironically pretty likely). But I regret nothing. Pikachu day was fun for me, and some of you seemed to enjoy the joke too. And now I want a Pokemon Warriors. Edited April 8, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePrimeOne Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 7/10 for Anna. Also, seems like Mercedes is confirmed, new design and all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fabulously Olivier Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 The front page has been updated to confirm Mercedes and Purple Hair. In these events, I will keep the score and just add confirmed, so we can see how our predictions hold up. Shame we never got to Purple Hair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Emblem Fan Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Anna has a high chance, she's just so iconic. You know they're gonna find some way to put her in. 8/10 In other news, I am incredibly happy that Mercedes has been confirmed. She was one of my 10/10 personal hopes. And I LOVE her design! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fabulously Olivier Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 29 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said: Anna has a high chance, she's just so iconic. You know they're gonna find some way to put her in. 8/10 In other news, I am incredibly happy that Mercedes has been confirmed. She was one of my 10/10 personal hopes. And I LOVE her design! Congratulations! May we all get our favorites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ether Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 This also gives us a lot of hindsight to think about. Mercedes was considered by most to be fairly low on the list as far as the Lions are concerned. If we take the aggregate scores and assume she was the 6th most likely lion, who is now confirmed, a lot of low scores that considered a smaller cast are likely inaccurate. Mercedes getting in if we only get, say, 4 lions, seems preposterous. Scores should remain archived of course, but I think it's worth talking about this flipping the script somewhat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanguard333 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ether said: This also gives us a lot of hindsight to think about. Mercedes was considered by most to be fairly low on the list as far as the Lions are concerned. If we take the aggregate scores and assume she was the 6th most likely lion, who is now confirmed, a lot of low scores that considered a smaller cast are likely inaccurate. Mercedes getting in if we only get, say, 4 lions, seems preposterous. Scores should remain archived of course, but I think it's worth talking about this flipping the script somewhat. I don't remember the exact score I gave Mercedes in likelihood, but I do remember most of us thinking that she at least had some chance on account of her being Jeritza's sister, so it's not exactly "flipping the script". You do have a point though that a lot of us probably thought this game would have a smaller cast than it actually will have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fabulously Olivier Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Ether said: This also gives us a lot of hindsight to think about. Mercedes was considered by most to be fairly low on the list as far as the Lions are concerned. If we take the aggregate scores and assume she was the 6th most likely lion, who is now confirmed, a lot of low scores that considered a smaller cast are likely inaccurate. Mercedes getting in if we only get, say, 4 lions, seems preposterous. Scores should remain archived of course, but I think it's worth talking about this flipping the script somewhat. Too early to tell. There's a lot that could be going on here: A) Roster is bigger than some of us are thinking. B) Someone on the dev team favors Mercedes. C) Mercedes has been prioritized because Jeritza has a bigger role. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drattakbowser Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Bernadetta is confirmed too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florete Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, drattakbowser said: Bernadetta is confirmed too. Even in the video he says he can't be sure if it's her or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Emblem Fan Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 8 hours ago, Ether said: This also gives us a lot of hindsight to think about. Mercedes was considered by most to be fairly low on the list as far as the Lions are concerned. If we take the aggregate scores and assume she was the 6th most likely lion, who is now confirmed, a lot of low scores that considered a smaller cast are likely inaccurate. Mercedes getting in if we only get, say, 4 lions, seems preposterous. Scores should remain archived of course, but I think it's worth talking about this flipping the script somewhat. If I remember correctly, I believe I gave Mercedes a 7.5/10? Still not as high as Felix (pretty sure I said 10/10?), or Sylvain and Ingrid (8 for both), but I thought her connection to Jeritza would play in her favor. I obviously don't know if her Jeritza connection actually is playing a role, but I was right about her having pretty good odds! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Holy Elf Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Mercedes being confirmed absolutely makes everyone else a bit more likely, if we're going by raw percent chance. Of course, the relative value of scores is mostly the same, although Mercedes' confirmation may specifically make Jeritza a bit more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fabulously Olivier Posted April 9, 2022 Author Share Posted April 9, 2022 Anna gets a 7.22. Day 46 - Thales Who I am giving a 2.5/10 chance, 4/10 want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Emblem Fan Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Thales is one of the more likely villains, in my opinion, yet still not very likely. 3/10 I'm not uber interested in him, he's just "meh." Like most TH villains. Personal want is 2/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanguard333 Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Thales is a villain that I could easily see being playable as a bonus/postgame character; he's a main villain and he has access to unique spells like quake that could easily set him apart. I'd say 5/10 likelihood. My question is: if he were to be playable, would it be as Thales or as "Arundel"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fabulously Olivier Posted April 9, 2022 Author Share Posted April 9, 2022 55 minutes ago, vanguard333 said: Thales is a villain that I could easily see being playable as a bonus/postgame character; he's a main villain and he has access to unique spells like quake that could easily set him apart. I'd say 5/10 likelihood. My question is: if he were to be playable, would it be as Thales or as "Arundel"? Thales with a costume for Arundel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanguard333 Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said: Thales with a costume for Arundel. That could definitely work. Although, isn't Thales a cavalry unit when he's pretending to be Arundel? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanty Pete's 1st Mate Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Thales is a notable antagonist on each route, albeit sometimes in his alternative identity of "Arundel". I imagine he's probably one of the major villains in Three Hopes as well, so making him playable wouldn't make very much sense. He's not very interesting as a character, although as a unit, he does get a unique class in Agastya, and a unique dark spell in Quake. I think a 2 out of 10 is appropriate here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsfan92 Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Personally with TWISD I think the better question is do they even still exist as we still know them in three hopes with the new story. If this is a golden route they could easily replace him outright with a new enemy group. If its modified version of the existing route they could easily leave him out so he can do what he does in the plot at the end of the existing routes (be Lord Aurindel in CF be an endgame fight in post timeskip VW ect). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Etrurian emperor Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Well he's no doubt going to show up since he's essentially the main villain. But as a playable character I give him a 5/10. They're probably going to ''Gharnef'' him in the sense that he's around but not playable nor with an unique moveset. Want: /1/10. Why would I want him? He's so incompetent that he's got the dubious honor of being the only FE villain who can be defeated by accident, and his only real role is to make Edelgard a less interesting character. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Holy Elf Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Etrurian emperor said: Well he's no doubt going to show up since he's essentially the main villain. Is he, though? I don't think either CF or AM treat him that way at all, and even in VW/SS where he comes closest, you could definitely debate it. Certainly the game never treats him as a major fight on any route the way it does the lords and Rhea; he gets the same boss theme as all the other Agarthans (fun fact: I've never seen his VW/SS form get a turn). 2/10 for Thales. A total dud for popularity who has at least some plot importance but not enough to overcome this, and definitely runs the risk of the Validar treatment even if he is in. More likely than Solon, but I don't think he's any more likely than the other Agarthans, and they're already all collectively low in my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsfan92 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Dark Holy Elf said: Is he, though? I don't think either CF or AM treat him that way at all, and even in VW/SS where he comes closest, you could definitely debate it. Certainly the game never treats him as a major fight on any route the way it does the lords and Rhea; he gets the same boss theme as all the other Agarthans (fun fact: I've never seen his VW/SS form get a turn). At least with CF I think it probably was because of the time crunch that the route clearly had as the offscreening of Aurindel and TWSID makes no sense other than time crunch. As for AM I honestly just think it was bad writing with how Thales was written in that route. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Holy Elf Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said: At least with CF I think it probably was because of the time crunch that the route clearly had as the offscreening of Aurindel and TWSID makes no sense other than time crunch. As for AM I honestly just think it was bad writing with how Thales was written in that route. Rhea is clearly the main antagonist for Edelgard and no amount of extra content was going to change that. Well, agree to disagree on writing quality. And regardless, while I think Thales could have worked as the main antagonist to Dimitri (since he almost surely had a hand in orchestrating the Tragedy of Duscur), but that's not the direction they went. (Oddly enough I don't think he works very well as a main antagonist to Claude, which is the one he's closest to being... the Agarthans are pretty unrelated to Claude's personal goals. Though he does potentially work as a main antagonist to Byleth due to being behind Solon and Kronya who both inflict direct personal injury on people Byleth cares about.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5PointGordin Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said: Rhea is clearly the main antagonist for Edelgard and no amount of extra content was going to change that. Well, agree to disagree on writing quality. And regardless, while I think Thales could have worked as the main antagonist to Dimitri (since he almost surely had a hand in orchestrating the Tragedy of Duscur), but that's not the direction they went. (Oddly enough I don't think he works very well as a main antagonist to Claude, which is the one he's closest to being... the Agarthans are pretty unrelated to Claude's personal goals. Though he does potentially work as a main antagonist to Byleth due to being behind Solon and Kronya who both inflict direct personal injury on people Byleth cares about.) Wasn't Claude's route more about uncovering the truths behind Fodlan? I would say that Thales works as an antagonist in Claude's route for that reason, as the true nature behind the Crest, the Ten Elites, etc. is all a large mystery to Claude and the Agarthans and Rhea are in the center of that mystery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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