New Heroes & Ascended Mareeta

[Jotari]

56 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

You realize that trends literally are evidence, right? And that not all trends in this game have been broken, right? And that there are ways to account for the possibility that a trend will be broken, right? There literally are entire branches of mathematics dedicated to accounting for incomplete data.

As I have already stated countless times here, your argument boils down to "we can't predict the future perfectly; therefore, all possibilities are equally possible", which is the equivalent of putting your fingers in your ears and yelling "la la la I can't hear you" at the top of your lungs. You're seeing only the reality you want to see and pretending like everything that doesn't conform to your reality doesn't exist.

And evidence to support my assertion is not the same as evidence to support your assertion. My evidence is not the same as your evidence. Just because "there is no evidence" for me doesn't mean you're exempt from presenting evidence to support your assertion. Show me evidence that "trends have always been broken". Show me evidence that this trend is likely to be broken. Show me evidence that "there is no evidence" to support my claim.

And you must realize you can't make a trend out of three data samples. None of which actually support your point and one of which (Idunn) actively detracts from it. Time will ultimately tell which of us is right, but my stance is that anything can happen, while yours is that these specific things almost certainly will happen. And I'm sure you'll be wrong just as much as you're right. Let's add another one for the list now, you reckon Sothe will 10:1 be a legendary for the same reason as Nana, correct? I reckon, given the number of legend material characters still available for Tellius, Sothe will much more likely be an Ascended hero. In fact I reckon he'll be first in line for such a thing given his rather unique status as a protagonist (well it'll be either him or a Laguz as they always need more excuses for beast units).

53 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Guys is this really worth arguing about

I only got one Mareeta during my way to the spark (and only one Karin and a random Lethe, this wasn't a good banner for me) so I don't have plans to give away Vital Astra anytime soon. But it feels like it'd only be practical on a very small handful of units or something. Am I wrong?

How else can I assert my dominance other than arguing over irrelevant things!

Edited March 20, 2022 by Jotari

[Some Jerk]

Welp, I said I was gonna skip, but a sudden influx of orbs and a desire to feed Vital Astra to Phina has convinced me to spark A!Mareeta. My fingers are crossed that I'll pull one on the way to the spark so I can also give it to Silvia, but I'm not holding my breath.

The game has been relentless about throwing highly-required fodder at me over the last few months, sheesh. Since January I have had to spark:

• A!Joshua (for the floret)
• P!Surtr (to feed to V!Lissa)
• A!Idunn (for the floret)
• Duo!Azura
• L!Caeda (to feed to Phina)

These were all in succession, with not a single 5* on the way to the spark, and I'm still working on S!Maria (whether to use or to feed to Balldigan, I'm not sure) in addition to A!Mareeta now. I'm only considering this because I finally caught a break on the Remix banner, which spat out L!Azura (fed to Merrybilis) and Gatekeeper (a merge project) on the way to the spark, which was spent on another Gatekeeper to save me a headache in the future. Hopefully after the Spring banner I shouldn't have any more pressing troubles until the CYL5 rerun.

...Oh who am I kidding, with my current run of luck, the very next seasonal banner is going to debut the Atk/Def Hold that Merrybilis wants.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Some Jerk

[Ice Dragon]

6 hours ago, Jotari said:

And you must realize you can't make a trend out of three data samples.

In fact, you can make a trend out of two data samples. It will have high uncertainty, but it's still a trend. And statistics has methods to account for uncertainty. Three data samples is plenty.

That said, you're ignoring the fact that the most important part of my argument is not the three Ascended Heroes, but is the 30 data samples of Legendary Heroes to conclude that Nanna and Fin are likely to be implemented as Legendary Heroes. And the assumption that a non-Heroes character that already has a Legendary Hero is unlikely to get an Ascended Hero is plain enough to see, and this is not determined from any trend, but from the simple fact that they would be largely redundant alts in terms of purpose.

 

6 hours ago, Jotari said:

None of which actually support your point and one of which (Idunn) actively detracts from it.

Please tell me how. You still haven't given me even a shred of evidence and have just been making empty assertions.

Joshua doesn't currently qualify as a Legendary Hero, and he got an Ascended version.

Mareeta doesn't currently qualify as a Legendary Hero, and she got an Ascended version.

Idunn does qualify for both a Legendary and Mythic Hero, but her qualifications for Legendary Hero are thin at best, and her qualifications for Mythic Hero are dampened by the fact that every non-Heroes Mythic Hero has been a brand new character with no previous representation. And she got an Ascended version.

All of these support my point. Please actually explain to me how you think these don't support my point.

 

6 hours ago, Jotari said:

but my stance is that anything can happen,

"Anything can happen" just means the probability isn't zero. In other news, the sky is blue and water is wet, and nothing of value was said.

 

6 hours ago, Jotari said:

Let's add another one for the list now, you reckon Sothe will 10:1 be a legendary for the same reason as Nana, correct? I reckon, given the number of legend material characters still available for Tellius, Sothe will much more likely be an Ascended hero. In fact I reckon he'll be first in line for such a thing given his rather unique status as a protagonist (well it'll be either him or a Laguz as they always need more excuses for beast units).

Yes, I'd also give him a 10:1. But 10:1 is not 100%, so even if Sothe is implemented as an Ascended Hero, that doesn't contradict the odds.

Mathematically, my 10:1 odds means the following: Out of the 7 remaining characters from the banner and Feh Channel plus Finn (Elincia, Tsubasa, Ninian, Deirdre, Sothe, Nanna, Itsuki, and Finn), no more than 1 of them will end up as an Ascended Hero.

[XRay]

Pretty late to the party in terms of impression, but here goes mine.

August is pretty niche if you want to fully utilize him, since it is only in Grand Conquest, Rival Domains, Summoner Duels, and I guess Story Maps that does not penalize you for losing units. He should probably Ally Support with a fast dual phase unit and run Spd Opening; alternatively, a slow dual phase unit can work too. However, all that said, he is most likely to sit in the back as a long range support unit, and since his Spd sucks, he is not going on the front lines to kill anything either. I am skeptical that long range support is all that relevant, since closer support like Flayn and Elimine are so much better and you can have Save tanks to protect them.

Mareeta: Astra Awakened is serviceable with her base kit, but I think it needs some work for more specialization. As a tank buster, she will want Surge Sparrow to top up her HP if she is not going to avoid counter attacks, and she may also want to consider Flashing Blade if the enemy is running Guard and Pulse Smoke. I think Windsweep is a better option since it is safer, and Frenzy is also worth consideration.

As for pulls, I got a couple of copies of Galzus and Mareeta: Astra Awakened (one of them is [+Spd, -HP], which is fantastic), as well as two Augusts, so I am pretty much good. I also guaranteed summon Mareeta: Astra Awakened and put that copy in my Reserves.

Edited March 20, 2022 by XRay

[Jotari]

2 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

In fact, you can make a trend out of two data samples. It will have high uncertainty, but it's still a trend. And statistics has methods to account for uncertainty. Three data samples is plenty.

That said, you're ignoring the fact that the most important part of my argument is not the three Ascended Heroes, but is the 30 data samples of Legendary Heroes to conclude that Nanna and Fin are likely to be implemented as Legendary Heroes. And the assumption that a non-Heroes character that already has a Legendary Hero is unlikely to get an Ascended Hero is plain enough to see, and this is not determined from any trend, but from the simple fact that they would be largely redundant alts in terms of purpose.

Except all legendary Heroes before this year existed before Ascended Heroes became the norm. Meaning no, they are not valid data samples for an Ascended vs Legendary debate.

Quote

Please tell me how. You still haven't given me even a shred of evidence and have just been making empty assertions.

Joshua doesn't currently qualify as a Legendary Hero, and he got an Ascended version.

Mareeta doesn't currently qualify as a Legendary Hero, and she got an Ascended version.

Idunn does qualify for both a Legendary and Mythic Hero, but her qualifications for Legendary Hero are thin at best, and her qualifications for Mythic Hero are dampened by the fact that every non-Heroes Mythic Hero has been a brand new character with no previous representation. And she got an Ascended version.

All of these support my point. Please actually explain to me how you think these don't support my point.

But that last one doesn't. And again, three samples.

Quote

 

"Anything can happen" just means the probability isn't zero. In other news, the sky is blue and water is wet, and nothing of value was said.

Great, you get it. Glad to see you're on my side.

Quote

Yes, I'd also give him a 10:1. But 10:1 is not 100%, so even if Sothe is implemented as an Ascended Hero, that doesn't contradict the odds.

Mathematically, my 10:1 odds means the following: Out of the 7 remaining characters from the banner and Feh Channel plus Finn (Elincia, Tsubasa, Ninian, Deirdre, Sothe, Nanna, Itsuki, and Finn), no more than 1 of them will end up as an Ascended Hero.

Okay, well we'll wait and see. Time proved me right about Tiki being a Divine Dragon, I'm pretty confident in saying not all of those listed characters will be legendaries (or if they are, they could also get ascended versions). Let's revisit this a year from now when there are more ascended characters.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Jotari

[Othin]

If they want to pick units from the CYL and/or Fallen banners to count as Ascended, we could see out first Ascended/Legendary overlap quite soon.

[Jotari]

15 minutes ago, Othin said:

If they want to pick units from the CYL and/or Fallen banners to count as Ascended, we could see out first Ascended/Legendary overlap quite soon.

If we're expected an Ascended Hero in every banner, then it does raise interesting questions for Fallen banners and Brave Heroes. Will the most popular character from CYL be an Ascended character too? And will they repeat some of the Fallen Heroes ideas they've had in the past as an Ascended Hero? Or just make one unit who is already in the game already an Ascended Fallen Hero (possibly if it's non canonical, like Fallen Ike)? Or will they just ignore Ascended Heroes for these banners?

[Humanoid]

If you fall then ascend, does that mean you're a good guy again?

Incoming Garon: Loving Father.

[Ice Dragon]

4 hours ago, Jotari said:

Except all legendary Heroes before this year existed before Ascended Heroes became the norm.

The introduction of Ascended Heroes hasn't changed anything. None of the non-Heroes Ascended Heroes that have been released were strong contenders for Legendary Heroes, and none of the non-Heroes Legendary Heroes released since the introduction of Ascended Heroes have contradicted the existing patterns for the release of Legendary Heroes.

The status quo is unchanged by the introduction of Ascended Heroes. You claim that this event is a massive shake-up that throws everything into chaos so that we can no longer predict anything, but all evidence points to absolutely nothing having changed from before.

 

4 hours ago, Jotari said:

But that last one doesn't.

Okay, then explain it to me why it can be dismissed. A simple assertion with nothing backing it up means jack squat.

Idunn was never a strong contender for a Legendary Hero, and she contradicts precedent for a Mythic Hero. If she were ever released as either one, it would've come straight out of left field as a surprise and would have shaken up existing trends. While she qualified for both, her actual chances of being released as one were never very high.

Idunn's release as an Ascended Hero does nothing to change the fact that she barely qualified as a Legendary Hero to begin with and does nothing to change the fact that Nanna and Finn were always significantly more likely to released as a Legendary Hero than she ever was.

 

4 hours ago, Jotari said:

And again, three samples.

And again, three samples is already pretty telling of what they want to do with the unit type. More is obviously better to harden the edges, but any threshold is purely arbitrary.

At three samples, Legendary Heroes had Ike, Ephraim, and Grima Robin. None of the characters since then have stretched the definition of Legendary Heroes. Lilina and Caeda are unsurprising given that we knew before their release that IS considered them to be "lead" characters, and while Fae was more surprising than the rest, she follows Tiki's established footsteps (especially when noting that Binding Blade pays a lot of homage to the Akaneia games).

At three samples, Mythic Heroes had Duma, Yune, and Naga. Altina definitively extended the definition of Mythic Heroes to divinely powered humans (after Thrasir teased it), but this development was unsurprising from the naming of the unit type in Japanese and from the fact that the pool of actual gods with canon faces from outside of Heroes is too small to sustain the unit type on them alone.

 

4 hours ago, Jotari said:

Great, you get it. Glad to see you're on my side.

Glad to see you're scraping the bottom of the barrel for wins.

[Jotari]

Just now, Ice Dragon said:

The introduction of Ascended Heroes hasn't changed anything. None of the non-Heroes Ascended Heroes that have been released were strong contenders for Legendary Heroes, and none of the non-Heroes Legendary Heroes released since the introduction of Ascended Heroes have contradicted the existing patterns for the release of Legendary Heroes.

The status quo is unchanged by the introduction of Ascended Heroes. You claim that this event is a massive shake-up that throws everything into chaos so that we can no longer predict anything, but all evidence points to absolutely nothing having changed from before.

Of course it's changed things. Now characters have the potential to be legendary or ascended heroes when before they only had legendary.

Just now, Ice Dragon said:

Okay, then explain it to me why it can be dismissed. A simple assertion with nothing backing it up means jack squat.

Idunn was never a strong contender for a Legendary Hero, and she contradicts precedent for a Mythic Hero. If she were ever released as either one, it would've come straight out of left field as a surprise and would have shaken up existing trends. While she qualified for both, her actual chances of being released as one were never very high.

Idunn's release as an Ascended Hero does nothing to change the fact that she barely qualified as a Legendary Hero to begin with and does nothing to change the fact that Nanna and Finn were always significantly more likely to released as a Legendary Hero than she ever was.

Again, just your opinion. I doubt anyone would have blinked an eye if Idunn was a Legendary or a Mythic, yourself included.

Just now, Ice Dragon said:

And again, three samples is already pretty telling of what they want to do with the unit type. More is obviously better to harden the edges, but any threshold is purely arbitrary.

At three samples, Legendary Heroes had Ike, Ephraim, and Grima Robin. None of the characters since then have stretched the definition of Legendary Heroes. Lilina and Caeda are unsurprising given that we knew before their release that IS considered them to be "lead" characters, and while Fae was more surprising than the rest, she follows Tiki's established footsteps (especially when noting that Binding Blade pays a lot of homage to the Akaneia games).

At three samples, Mythic Heroes had Duma, Yune, and Naga. Altina definitively extended the definition of Mythic Heroes to divinely powered humans (after Thrasir teased it), but this development was unsurprising from the naming of the unit type in Japanese and from the fact that the pool of actual gods with canon faces from outside of Heroes is too small to sustain the unit type on them alone.

Yes, they all follows the pattern, if you ignore the exceptions that change the pattern.

[Othin]

7 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Again, just your opinion. I doubt anyone would have blinked an eye if Idunn was a Legendary or a Mythic, yourself included.

I would certainly have been surprised. Unless she was released as a mythic as her first version anyway, rather than getting the mythic after a regular version.

[Ice Dragon]

@Jotari

The fact that it took you only 4 minutes to respond to me really shows the level of effort you're putting into your responses.

And again, you're just repeating the same things you've previously said without actually bothering to provide any support for your claims. Yelling the same thing over and over again might "win" you arguments in real life where people just stop bothering to argue with you, but that's harder to do in a public, asynchronous setting (especially against someone whose primary goal in the argument isn't to "win").

 

43 minutes ago, Jotari said:

I doubt anyone would have blinked an eye if Idunn was a Legendary or a Mythic, yourself included.

That sounds a lot like a hunch to me. You know, the thing you've been accusing me of doing this whole time.

I would have been very surprised to see her as a Legendary Hero because I placed her more likely to be a Mythic Hero. Before the introduction of Mythic Heroes, her chances of being a Legendary Hero were only slightly higher and only because Legendary Grima existed; however, Grima is Robin, a main character, whereas Idunn is not at all a main character and would still have been completely out of left field.

I would not have been surprised to see her as a Mythic Hero before she was released as a normal unit (only Eir and Duma were released before her), but after her release as a normal unit, her chances of being released as Mythic Hero dropped significantly and I certainly would not have expected a Mythic Hero release after that. I still considered her a Mythic Hero candidate since she still fit the mold as a character, but just because she could get a Mythic version didn't mean she was ever actually likely to get one.

And again, thanks for helping me realize just how unlikely Idunn was to get anything other than an Ascended version. The more I try to give her the benefit of the doubt, the less convincing the arguments for her being released as a Legendary or Mythic Hero are becoming.

 

43 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Yes, they all follows the pattern, if you ignore the exceptions that change the pattern.

Okay. Then list the exceptions and explain why they change the pattern. If you were referring to the examples I gave, those didn't change the pattern. At a superficial level, they may look like they do, but none of them are outliers.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Ice Dragon

[Faellin]

I'm really confused on August's pref weapon effect. LIke what mode would that actually be useful in? I legit can't think of any mode that you would want to suicide a unit to get his pref weapon off

Also support partnering him up with legendary Leif allows for consistant quad attacks. I love it, and its very fitting as well

Edited March 20, 2022 by Faellin

[XRay]

1 hour ago, Faellin said:

I'm really confused on August's pref weapon effect. Like what mode would that actually be useful in? I legit can't think of any mode that you would want to suicide a unit to get his pref weapon off

Also support partnering him up with legendary Leif allows for consistant quad attacks. I love it, and its very fitting as well

I will just quote myself. I would also add Training Tower and Tempest Trials to the list, but like Rival Domains and Story Maps, the difficulty is so low that I do not think you need support units in those modes.

Grand Conquest can be completed purely on Lunatic, and supports are not needed at that difficulty. If you missed a day or two though, then you will want to do some Abyssal maps, but even then, you might be better off just bringing another nuke than waste space on a support unit that can barely kill things.

For Summoner Duels, I think you are flat out better off bringing another nuke for trading pieces. While August will help one unit be better at killing something, he himself cannot kill for crap, so you going to lose a war of attrition if it gets to that point. Winning in Summoner Duels is more about positioning than raw combat power, since opponents cannot bring more than one Save tank and you have enough space to fit a tank buster to counter that.

8 hours ago, XRay said:

August is pretty niche if you want to fully utilize him, since it is only in Grand Conquest, Rival Domains, Summoner Duels, and I guess Story Maps that does not penalize you for losing units. He should probably Ally Support with a fast dual phase unit and run Spd Opening; alternatively, a slow dual phase unit can work too. However, all that said, he is most likely to sit in the back as a long range support unit, and since his Spd sucks, he is not going on the front lines to kill anything either. I am skeptical that long range support is all that relevant, since closer support like Flayn and Elimine are so much better and you can have Save tanks to protect them.

 

[Ice Dragon]

7 hours ago, Faellin said:

I'm really confused on August's pref weapon effect. LIke what mode would that actually be useful in? I legit can't think of any mode that you would want to suicide a unit to get his pref weapon off

Also support partnering him up with legendary Leif allows for consistant quad attacks. I love it, and its very fitting as well

You basically just ignore the second effect. Rival Domains and Grand Conquest are the only game modes where the effect is at all relevant. Rival Domains is easy, so you won't actually get any significant mileage out of it, but I can see it being at least decent in Grand Conquest (because even if the mode is easy, I don't like the mode, so anything that makes it easier is good).

In Summoner Duels, unless you're trading pieces early, you simply aren't going to have enough turns to actually make good use of the second effect, and August is lacking in usefulness outside of his support effect, which is a waste of a valuable team slot that could have been used on a better support unit or a hybrid combat-support unit. Tempest Trials is the other game mode where losing units is not out of the ordinary, but the game mode is easy enough that the effect isn't too impactful.

In all other game modes, you simply treat the weapon as if the second effect doesn't exist.

[Jotari]

8 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

@Jotari

The fact that it took you only 4 minutes to respond to me really shows the level of effort you're putting into your responses.

How long would you have liked me to taken to respond?

8 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

And again, you're just repeating the same things you've previously said without actually bothering to provide any support for your claims. Yelling the same thing over and over again might "win" you arguments in real life where people just stop bothering to argue with you, but that's harder to do in a public, asynchronous setting (especially against someone whose primary goal in the argument isn't to "win").

Well you're repeating yourself over and over already. I think I've made it quite clear I'm actually willing to just stop things here and let time decide.

[5PointGordin]

19 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

You basically just ignore the second effect. Rival Domains and Grand Conquest are the only game modes where the effect is at all relevant. Rival Domains is easy, so you won't actually get any significant mileage out of it, but I can see it being at least decent in Grand Conquest (because even if the mode is easy, I don't like the mode, so anything that makes it easier is good).

In Summoner Duels, unless you're trading pieces early, you simply aren't going to have enough turns to actually make good use of the second effect, and August is lacking in usefulness outside of his support effect, which is a waste of a valuable team slot that could have been used on a better support unit or a hybrid combat-support unit. Tempest Trials is the other game mode where losing units is not out of the ordinary, but the game mode is easy enough that the effect isn't too impactful.

In all other game modes, you simply treat the weapon as if the second effect doesn't exist.

Does Ally support not apply in Aether Raids defense? The weapon seems practically built for that mode.

Edited March 22, 2022 by 5PointGordin

[Ice Dragon]

2 minutes ago, 5PointGordin said:

Does Ally support not apply in Aether Raids defense? The weapon seems practically built for that mode.

Neither Ally Support nor Summoner Support apply to units under AI control.

[Jotari]

They've used August very well in his conversation with Riginn Ever the realpolitik pragmatist, but also saying stuff Riginn kind of needs to hear.