Kamen Rider Ryuuki Mafia - Game Over

[Nightmare]

This, I feel, means that Sho, 13th, AND Rapier are likely to be mafia.

Huh, I never actually thought of this for some reason. Guess I was too focused on Sho, but...this actually makes a lot of sense.

I'm not really liking a Sho lynch actually and I don't think I will be supporting it unless something happens to drastically change my opinion. It seems to me people are just voting him out of his frustration and their frustration even if they try to back up their votes with real reasoning.

I'm not frustrated at all. Just from the observations I'm making, it looks like Sho is the best choice. While Snike's theory about all three of those guys being mafia is certainly interesting, I'd still like to lynch Sho first. To reiterate, my reasons:

1 - 13th made Rein vote for me, Sho made that bit of bad logic to get a mislynch out of it. It failed, obviously.

2 - Sho and Rapier argued. Rapier insisted on Sho being the scum of the world while Sho vehemently defended his bad logic.

3 - Sho then seemingly backed out of this logic, but still somewhat defended it when someone criticised it; also, explosions at the slightest touch.

4 - So later, I vote for Sho and say that I don't see any better options; what is Sho's defence? That 13th should be lynched instead.

I don't know about you, but those look like very good reasons to me. Augmented with Snike's logic, they look like even better reasons to lynch any three of those guys.

[Snike]

I should also say that I am OK with any of these 3's lynches, since they're all likely to be mafia.

[Nightmare]

I'm not frustrated at all. Just from the observations I'm making, it looks like Sho is the best choice. While Snike's theory about all three of those guys being mafia is certainly interesting, I'd still like to lynch Sho first. To reiterate, my reasons:

1 - 13th made Rein vote for me, Sho made that bit of bad logic to get a mislynch out of it. It failed, obviously.

2 - Sho and Rapier argued. Rapier insisted on Sho being the scum of the world while Sho vehemently defended his bad logic.

3 - Sho then seemingly backed out of this logic, but still somewhat defended it when someone criticised it; also, explosions at the slightest touch.

4 - So later, I vote for Sho and say that I don't see any better options; what is Sho's defence? That 13th should be lynched instead.

Oh yes, I forgot to mention the fifth reason that I don't think I should disclose at this moment. It makes me 75% sure that a Sho lynch will lead us somewhere.

I should also say that I am OK with any of these 3's lynches, since they're all likely to be mafia.

I figured as much.

[a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes]

God dammit Snike. Why are you so awesome?

Yes Snike is 100% right and we indeed did cook this little plan up. Too bad he found it. ##Vote: me because fuck this shit now that we are found out

I put this line here just in case someone didn't understand the jokeas a proof that I am indeed joking

Jokes aside there is few little things I would like to say:

I never said 13th would be town if he proofs his role. I merely saw proof that he is at least in contact with persuader offered on the silver platter. Of course I used it.

Secondly about the first votes format, it was fast post and had its herp derp. I should have read it more closely. Yeah no need to say I would say this no matter its true or not, I get it.

Third thing to say whoever asked what would I do without Rapier, other than the obvious wishing I had no bet going on, I would be on 13th's ass bit more. That is assuming that people post. Otherwise I start to pick on silent ones.

Fourth point. I just found out instead of bastard cold, I have worst case of cold in years. Gotta go see doctor to get some pills as the school nurse said this shit won't go away without them. And I though I was gona fix myself with tea... last 4 or so days.

[Snike]

I never said 13th would be town if he proofs his role. I merely saw proof that he is at least in contact with persuader offered on the silver platter. Of course I used it.

I'll admit YOU never said it, but uh, you certainly quoted someone who did.

I'll reply more in a few hours. I'm heading off for now.

[Paperblade]

##Unvote, ##Vote: Snike

[eclipse]

Any objections if I give Paperblade a BIG hug?

[a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes]

Oh and because someone will ask me sooner or later to defend myself from Snikes accusations, all I can say is this:

You know, if I didn't know that he is wrong (at least about me), or in other word one of the 3 suspects I would utterly and completely agree with Snike and proceed lynching these guys. In other words, when you find the theory very believeable. I would not believe anything the 3 would say. Even if I know that its false, I just don't have anything I havent said yet for my defence.

[Kaoz]

Now what does that mean?

This, I feel, means that Sho, 13th, AND Rapier are likely to be mafia. As my good Ducky has noted, they're hogging the spotlight with the bickering, which sort of minimizes the discussion about other players, and hampers the town's ability to unify. At the same time, their voting behaviour and tally seem to suggest that they are trying to pull a fast one on the town. This is what we would call bussing, folks. The trio are at each other's throats in order to make themselves look more town-aligned and distanced from one another to the rest of the town. This way, they can have a villain act as a 'clear', and steer the town to its' doom. The fact that those votes seem to be intentionally improperly formatted looks like an attempt to set up a stealth lynch scenario, in order to assure a strong role gets hung.

tl;dr: The arguments are a lie.

Interesting theory... however, wouldn't it be smarter to lynch Sho instead of 13th? For once we have Nightmare's whatever it is, which increases the probability of success. Furthermore, if you are right and those three are a mafia, one of them has to be the Persuader... and if Sho turns out to be that guy, the probability that 13th is also mafia will be pretty damn high.

On the other hand, I have to admit I'm very curious what 13th's role is... basically if I were to follow my curiousity, I would be more interested in 13th's, however I feel like Sho would be a better option from a statistical point of view. The above post doesn't really help his case either >_>;;

Also, I assume we will get to hear more of your opinions on everyone else when you get back here?

[Strawman]

Interesting theory... however, wouldn't it be smarter to lynch Sho instead of 13th? For once we have Nightmare's whatever it is, which increases the probability of success. Furthermore, if you are right and those three are a mafia, one of them has to be the Persuader... and if Sho turns out to be that guy, the probability that 13th is also mafia will be pretty damn high.

On the other hand, I have to admit I'm very curious what 13th's role is... basically if I were to follow my curiousity, I would be more interested in 13th's, however I feel like Sho would be a better option from a statistical point of view. The above post doesn't really help his case either >_>;;

Also, I assume we will get to hear more of your opinions on everyone else when you get back here?

So what, now we're just completely not believing that 13th is the persuader?

Him not actually being the persuader just seems too far fetched for me to believe.

[Nightmare]

Interesting theory... however, wouldn't it be smarter to lynch Sho instead of 13th? For once we have Nightmare's whatever it is, which increases the probability of success.

Take heed: it's a huge gamble on my part, so I'd like you to take that into consideration if we go for Sho.

[eclipse]

Nightmare, do you think your "theory" is why Sho was so focused on you on D1?

[Kaoz]

So what, now we're just completely not believing that 13th is the persuader?

Him not actually being the persuader just seems too far fetched for me to believe.

I never said anything about believing whether he is or isn't.

However, assuming Snike's theory is correct, then the probability of any one of them being the persuader is 33%. The probability that 13th is mafia if either Sho or Domu flip persuader is 80% (rough guess). The only reason why I suggested Sho over the other two is that we have Nightmare to increase the probability of him turning up mafia, as well as the chance to catch a second one in [33 * probability that Sho is mafia]% of the cases.

We could lynch 13th, the probability of success would just be slightly lower. And regardless of what he flips, we have only a small chance of learning anything new.

Take heed: it's a huge gamble on my part, so I'd like you to take that into consideration if we go for Sho.

Noted. Theoretically, as long as you can improve the probability by even 1%, he's the optimal target. Incidentally, do you know the exact risks associated with your "gamble"?

Anyway, I would like to hear other people's opinions on this matter as well.

[eclipse]

I think I ninja'd you, and Nightmare's nowhere in sight.

Kay, I see you in here. Say something, please.

[a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes]

I suppose my opinion about who to lynch is ignored anyway.

I suppose Im out of options I claim

I am survivor. I have been so god damn defensive because, well if I could survive first few days I should have been on clear waters I though so I did everything I could to keep my life it was in danger. Other than that I haven't lied in the slightest. Thus I beg of you. Please let me live and I will do everything you will ask me to. Anything.

I bet i just sealed my lynch. Oh well I was pretty much screwed already anyway

[Kaoz]

I am survivor. I have been so god damn defensive because, well if I could survive first few days I should have been on clear waters I though so I did everything I could to keep my life it was in danger. Other than that I haven't lied in the slightest. Thus I beg of you. Please let me live and I will do everything you will ask me to. Anything.

Nightmare, does this contradict your information?

[Nightmare]

Nightmare, do you think your "theory" is why Sho was so focused on you on D1?

What exactly do you mean?

Noted. Theoretically, as long as you can improve the probability by even 1%, he's the optimal target. Incidentally, do you know the exact risks associated with your "gamble"?

Well, before Sho's reveal, I was thinking a 25% chance where Sho is actually town. But...

Nightmare, does this contradict your information?

A slight bit. It seems like he wasn't mafia or SK, like I was thinking. But he turned out to be non-town anyway, so...

What do you guys think of his claim? And should we actually allow him to survive, if you think it's true? Stuff like that. For myself, a part of me says it's a desperate scum claim, but another says he might actually be telling the truth.

[eclipse]

Eh, guess I should make it a bit more clear.

Sho seemed to want to lynch you to learn about the persuader (STFU, Sho, this is for a reason). Do you think the real reason could've been the same reason why you thought there was a good chance that Sho wasn't town?

[a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes]

Not trying to anger anyone but when you beg for mercy on your knees, you do tend to shut the hell up.

[Kaoz]

A slight bit. It seems like he wasn't mafia or SK, like I was thinking. But he turned out to be non-town anyway, so...

Harmful or not harmful?

What do you guys think of his claim? And should we actually allow him to survive, if you think it's true? Stuff like that. For myself, a part of me says it's a desperate scum claim, but another says he might actually be telling the truth.

If he is the Survivor, lynching him is completly pointless. Furthermore he is now restricted in what he can do and if he lied, any investigation at a slightly later point should show that. In other words, I would say he's a sub optimal lynch now unless someone can show that he isn't telling the truth.

[Nightmare]

Eh, guess I should make it a bit more clear.

Sho seemed to want to lynch you to learn about the persuader (STFU, Sho, this is for a reason). Do you think the real reason could've been the same reason why you thought there was a good chance that Sho wasn't town?

Unlikely. I think the real reason was that Sho just wanted a mislynch.

Harmful or not harmful?

I definitely thought he was harmful, but if he is Survivor, then I guess he's not...which increases the chances of a Doctor, and/or a Bulletproof.

If he is the Survivor, lynching him is completly pointless. Furthermore he is now restricted in what he can do and if he lied, any investigation at a slightly later point should show that. In other words, I would say he's a sub optimal lynch now unless someone can show that he isn't telling the truth.

Good point there. Guess I'll ##Unvote him for now. If someone can tell us whether Sho is telling the truth or not, please show up.

So now, I'm thinking back to my list of optimal lynches and Kay is next. I'd really like to hear more of her, especially regarding the points I highlighted about her behaviour, and also her thoughts on the current situation.

##Vote: Kay for pressure. Care to tell us more, Kay?

[Kay]

He may be making sense now, but we'll always wonder why he panicked at the slightest pressure at the beginning. Every day he'll probably be a lynch candidate, however, today we have less info than we will probably have the next day, so if nothing else today, I think he is a good fallback target.

Regarding him pressuring somebody onto himself, I personally think its null. He's been seemingly trying hard to generate some trust, so it wouldn't be abnormal for him to do that if he were mafia, imo.

If you ask me, mafia are generally more likely to just give up if they're a lynch target. It makes sense - it's easier to assume people won't believe something you know to be untrue. 13th's determination to compensate for his earlier mistakes seems very townish to me. I don't think his change of logic is a scumtell, either. As I've said before, he's a pretty quick learner, and town or mafia, it's clear that he's putting at least some effort into this game.

Hmm did you argue against the lynch? I don't recall.

I'm happy with a blitz lynch. It tells us quite a bit about all of his interactions and tbh he isn't contributing very much relevant info.

Nice catch, Kaoz. That was some flip-flop, care to explain, Core?

I'm... not really happy with Sho's claim, his behavior was pretty strange for a Survivor - I can't see why he would take such an extreme position when it wasn't necessary. On the other hand, he has claimed, now he'll have to stick to it, so it at least makes him less dangerous if he is scum.

Sho, clarify why, as a Survivor, you wanted to lynch Nightmare. Not why your logic was good or bad, just whether it was your actual reason for wanting him lynched. Then explain why you stuck your neck out by arguing about whether you should have wanted to lynch him. Besides that, if your role is anything except plain vanilla Survivor, claim any other details now. Not when a Watcher sees you visiting someone or something like that.

[a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes]

Sho, clarify why, as a Survivor, you wanted to lynch Nightmare. Not why your logic was good or bad, just whether it was your actual reason for wanting him lynched. Then explain why you stuck your neck out by arguing about whether you should have wanted to lynch him. Besides that, if your role is anything except plain vanilla Survivor, claim any other details now. Not when a Watcher sees you visiting someone or something like that.

1) I honestly though it would be good lynch for town and I needed to appear town for a while before I could safely reveal myself. Didn't really care about if I would look too good townie and end up killed by mafia because you know soon.

2) I though it was town positive lynch and feared that I would end up killed D2 because it. In other words I shitted my pants and tried to turn all the fault on Rapier to save my butt. Mission epic fail.

3) BPV

[Jaybee]

I suppose my opinion about who to lynch is ignored anyway.

I suppose Im out of options I claim

I am survivor. I have been so god damn defensive because, well if I could survive first few days I should have been on clear waters I though so I did everything I could to keep my life it was in danger. Other than that I haven't lied in the slightest. Thus I beg of you. Please let me live and I will do everything you will ask me to. Anything.

I bet i just sealed my lynch. Oh well I was pretty much screwed already anyway

##Vote: Sho

I'm going to say this one more time - IF YOU ARE A SURVIVOR, FUCKING CLAIM ON DAY ONE. You have nothing to lose by outing your identity, unless rolecaliming calls for a modkill. You can just call Survivor, and without a counterclaim, no one will do ANYTHING about it, because you can just sit your ass down and let mafia and town get at each other. There is no other reason for Survivor to not claim on D1, and at this point I'm pretty sure it's a desperate claim.

Not trying to anger anyone but when you beg for mercy on your knees, you do tend to shut the hell up.

No, you scramble.

Anyway, just gonna address Snike's point about Sho, 13th and Rapier being mafia - It certainly is a good theory, though I honestly don't trust 13th, Rapier AND Sho to have come up with that plan all on their own. I don't really have anything else to say other than the fact that forgetting the hashtags was probably a lot of nitpicking, but the rest of the logic is kind of sound.

To be honest, before I saw Snike's theory I'd have thought that at least one of 13th, Sho and Rapier would be town because of their screaming at each other, and no sane mafia would do such a thing, but Snike's logic is certainly another option.

[Kaoz]

I'm going to say this one more time - IF YOU ARE A SURVIVOR, FUCKING CLAIM ON DAY ONE. You have nothing to lose by outing your identity, unless rolecaliming calls for a modkill. You can just call Survivor, and without a counterclaim, no one will do ANYTHING about it, because you can just sit your ass down and let mafia and town get at each other. There is no other reason for Survivor to not claim on D1, and at this point I'm pretty sure it's a desperate claim.

I don't want to get into a pointless argument here, but I disagree with this, at least as long as you don't know anything about the setup.

While a lynch is certainly wasted on a Survivor, a Vig shot isn't if the Vig has unlimited shots and would idle otherwise. Furthermore it's not exactly sound logic to say that the claim is true without a cc, simply because Survivors aren't a necessary part of a setup... I could argue psychological reasons as well, but

Again, not trying to get into an argument over whether Survivors should out asap, just a side note from me... note that if you choose to reply to this, I likely won't reply to your post...