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Shinori, who do you think is scum? Me or Poly? Anyways, I think Poly's Manix vote was a Kaoz bus (well FMPOV I know it has to be, but you get what I mean). He pretty much admits it's because the Shinori wagon wasn't gaining momentum, and it has no other reasoning behind it. Poly seemed really convinced before that that Shinori was scum. A townie wouldn't just move away from that so easily. Also, with Shin claiming Vig and that he was the most suspicious of Manix, they would have suspected that there was a good chance Kaoz would die via Manix getting vigged. I think they realized that Shinori wasn't going to get lynched over Poly, and decided to just pseudo-bus Manix/Kaoz at an attempt at either getting Manix off from the vigshot if Poly got lynched or towncred for Poly if Manix got lynched.

I idled because I got the sense that Refa was going to use his ability even against my cautioning, and I didn't want to mess that up. I considered safeguarding him since I didn't think he'd self-drive, but then I thought that you might target him, and I didn't want to block that either.

Why would Poly inspect Shin? Or claim it, rather?

The only explanation I have for it only being MYLO at 3p and not LYLO is that Shinori targeted the person the mafia killed, so now they can't act tonight. With that part of his role confirmed, he's basically 99% confirmed town. I can only imagine with Refa and Shin both dying that Refa tried driving and shit went wrong.

the hook was due to Grass + Scorri's role I can safeguard someone if you REALLY WANT but the only actions to block at this point that we know about are Poly's claimed Cop and your drive, neither of which I want to block (or give an excuse to Poly for him to have no results).

I've already proven my role. Yeah, whatever, I admit that my opinion on Poly has changed. But my townread on Shinori has always been stronger than my townread on Poly. So I kind of had to change it. >_> I really haven't had time to reread you, but I am more confident about Poly being scum. Shinori and Eury had somewhat similar roles and both would be difficult to fake but Eury's would be harder to fake because she'd have to know the actual people who visited and Shinori wouldn't. Eury would have more info to fake. My scumread on Poly isn't because Backup Cop is easy to fake; it's because even though it's easy to fake, Poly is acting like it's super obvtown and that he's confirmed town and he's just trying to milk it for towncred. Anyways if you'd rather lynch Manix over Poly you might as well hammer him if you want.

If we lynch Manix and he flips town then Shin should shoot one of Poly or Refa. Don't announce it because that way scum!Refa knows who to drive. If Manix flips scum, then Refa can't be scum because he can only be scum if Poly is, which wouldn't be possible. So in that case announcing which of Poly/Shinori (or me I GUESS) he wants to shoot is fine I guess. Refa should act only if it's a situation where Shin is announcing his target (where Manix flips scum). In that case, he should drive Shin with someone Shin isn't killing, again not announcing it, or the mafia can just attack the other person. I'm probably going to idle again because I think I'm otherwise more likely to harm town than help it.

Well, I'm home, but I have to go make dinner and then eat it, so... meh. Refa are you here? Would you rather vote for Poly or Manix?

Also, nobody else is going to vote Manix because we don't want to lynch someone who can't talk, so Poly voting him could easily be WIFOM.

Poly's AtE is terrible atm. He expects us to find him town solely on his claim of Backup Cop even though it's really easy to fake and then when people aren't confirming him as town he's just raging and telling us we suck. Going to bed soon and depending on when I wake up I may or may not have time to post before I have to leave for my exam, and I may or may not be back before phase end after that (so basically this might be my last post of the day). So ##Vote: Polydeuces Shinori's logic is pretty good. If Poly flips town, which I highly doubt atm, then Refa is clear. The only difference is then that FMPOV anyways, scumteam has to be Shinori/Manix. Shin can shoot one of them. IMO Refa should still idle because then for us to be sure nothing would get screwed up with the vigshot, Shin would have to announce his target beforehand, in which case if Poly does flip scum, which is more likely, Refa could still be scum and could drive the kill.

Also 12/5/1 would be really anti-town with Kaoz unable to vote and Kirsche's lynch bomb.

If there were 3 scum, with Kaoz unable to vote, they would be able to tie the votecount right now. Or FYPOV you'd have been hammered already unless Poly and Manix are both scum.

Oh, I guess that's true. ugh Okay then, if we take it to be 4/2, then Shin should probably Vig either way, in which case I would advocate Refa idling.

It's 5/2 atm so if with a mislynch and mafia NK it'd only be like 3/2.

Also Eclipse, I don't think the phase end time in the topic title matches up with the phase end time posted in #1400. The former says that phase ends in ~28 hours, while the latter says that it ends 24 hours later than that.

Nothing preventing you and Manix from being buddies. And if we don't lynch correctly we probably lose so yeah. And unlike Manix you're here to defend yourself. Your Shinori suspicion says "he's the most likely to be lying about his role", not taking into account that he's proven his role. Also that killers haven't gotten hooked. Obviously, considering as he hasn't claimed targeting somebody who died that night yet. And even if he did, the mafia could just have the other person take the kill. You have three other points in #1373. The first and second one are really the same thing, him being all over the place, which is firstly kind of hypocritical of you to say after the Eury 180 near the end of D1. Secondly, him unvoting Kirsche before Kirsche got lynched and changing his mind repeatedly there doesn't even mean anything, because Shinori as mafia wouldn't know that Kirsche was the ITP. And then you talk about how he can fudge results, which he actually can't. It's very difficult to fake a Watcher claim. If he says that one person visited X and then two people claim to have visited them, then he's screwed. You're basically just guessing, which is bound to not work out sooner or later.

err, that last line should be, "if Shin is vigging, then he should definitely not announce his target, and you should idle, FMPOV at least"

Poly, we have no proof except your own word to say that you actually scanned Refa. It's not very hard to make up Cop reports when you're mafia, especially with the ITP down. You know everybody's alignment anyways. See: Refa in Fakeclaim and PToE (wow, we should policy Refa when he claims Cop). On the other hand, Shinori proved his role by knowing that somebody visited Elie on N3 before Elie said anything on D4. And the person who visited Elie wasn't mafia, so he'd have no way of guessing that. We know there's a Co-Driver after SB's flip, so we know that Refa's not lying either. I've proved my role by blocking people's actions. And Manix also proved Voyeur reports. Shinori's role might not be amazing, but for town, even the Watcher part fulfills a unique function. For scum, it's strictly worse than a Watcher who actually learns who visited their target, and not just how many people visited their target. And if we're going to argue that scum might have two of the same role, then we might as well also argue that scum have two Godfathers, in which case Shin isn't clear either (actually he would be because Vig but you get the point). Shinori's Eury interactions aren't a be-all-end-all-he's-town-for-sure, but they're still definitely the best interactions with flipped scum of anybody else, so that coupled with his role make me pretty confident he's town. Shin announcing exactly who his vig shot is allows you to drive it wherever you want if you're scum. If Shin is vigging, you should idle, FMPOV at least.

I wouldn't lynch Manix over Poly, because lynching people who can't defend themselves is lame. That was probably the intention if he is scum, but even in that case, he does still have a scumbuddy. FMPOV, lynching between Refa/Shinori/Poly has at worst a 1/3 chance at hitting scum and a 2/3 chance if Manix is town so that averages to like a 1/2 chance. I definitely wouldn't lynch Shinori either way though. He still has the best interactions with flipped scum, in that Eury was directly pushing him as a counterwagon to herself, and for that matter was tunneling him for the majority of D1. And his proven role is just a weaker version of Watcher. Even if he's scum with more parts to his role, that part of his role would just be entirely superfluous. And he's proven it too, so yeah, I think that he's the least likely person to be scum after Shin.

It's not that bad, and as it happens, the units with the most movement also have the best stats. And if they're lagging at any point you can just pump them a few levels of BEXP and they're good to go.

Sorry, I had an exam in the afternoon and then some idiot randomly wandered on the train tracks (it wasn't even suicide; he was just that stupid) and got killed and delayed everything for like an hour, which put me late for other stuff I had to do. Anyways, I was trying to think of why Manix might have been silenced, and these are the two possibilities that seem most likely to me: 1) Manix is scum and did it to himself for towncred. I've done this before and he can also vote in his PM, so I wouldn't put it past him. 2) Somebody didn't want him to out Voyeur reports. 3) Somebody was afraid of his scumhunting/reads/in-thread play Looking at 2 more closely- the only person who hasn't actually proven their role is Poly. I feel like he'd be the only person with something to gain in that sense. I don't think 3 is likely because on D4, Manix spoke pretty much solely about Kirsche, at least as far as scumreads go. I'm not sure he was even scumreading anyone currently alive. That leaves 1 and 2. So I'm pretty confident that the silence points to at least one of Manix or Poly being scum, possibly both since 1 and 2 aren't mutually exclusive. But if they were both scumbuddies, then it would be more 1 than 2, since Manix could just BS reports. I'm still inclined to stick with my gut on Poly being scum. I think that the only townie thing he's done all game is put that swingvote on Eury. But Vhaltz also put a swingvote on Eury (a swing doublevote, in fact) and then went to sleep, so it's entirely possible that the mafia team might have just decided to bus Eury to get a few of them towncred. Actually both Poly and Bizz voted Eury, and looking at it, Bizz's vote is more legit, as Poly's 180 could have been a #yolo bus on his part, while as I realized in my reread of Bizz, she was actually kind of consistently arguing against Eury. Poly/Shinori, don't you guys have anything to say about what I said wrt the vig/drive?

Okay, so I was thinking about some numbers. At 5/2, the only way it can be potential MYLO/LYLO is if Shin misvigs. If we mislynch, following the mafia NK, it would still be 3/2 only. If we lynch correctly though, then even with a misvig and mafia NK it'd still be 3/1 and we'd be fine. So I think that Shin should only vig if there's a correct lynch. If Shin is vigging (whether that's because he chooses not to take my advice or because there's a mafia lynch), I think Refa should idle (if he's town anyways). Otherwise a kill could get redirected somewhere accidentally and that'd be bad. At this point I don't think the mafia have a Hooker, since nobody's been hooked by anyone other than Grass, and I also think that if they did have one, they would have hooked Venno rather than killed him, at least in the short term.

tbf I specifically asked Refa to drive off Poly so that he couldn't fake being hooked or something.

Actually I guess it only matters is the scumteam is made up of Refa/me/Shin, which I know it's not. But even then you shouldn't be throwing your vote around. >_> Well, you said this, which implies that you did it by yourself. It doesn't really matter because it doesn't show any extra knowledge or something you shouldn't have; it's just kind of weird. I idled last night because I didn't want to mess up the redirects or give Poly the excuse of targeting the same person as me. In retrospect I maybe should have acted and had him claim first to see if I could catch him in a lie, but too late now I guess.

guys wtf unvote. At 7p it's 4 to hammer.