BBM

ugh I wouldn't want to lynch Bart today because if we get the 2nd scum today then scum!Bart would basically have to either PoE himself down or force a 1v1 yeah screw it let's massclaim. order: Sully, Elie, me, Refa, Via.

sighhhh I'm really wondering if kirsche would go for a VT claim at this point as scum. Assuming scum were given fakes, most likely they were given 2 PRs + 1 VT, and since Shinori never used one + they have a potential janned role I don't see why he'd go with VT other than WIFOM reasons, which would be a hell of a gambit considering he's most likely the most experienced player on the scumteam and if he gets lynched they're probably losing Elie hasn't claimed either

neighbours/a neighbourhood are people who have the ability to talk to each other outside of thread in an NOC game, but don't know each others' alignments (compared to masons, who in addition to being able to speak outside of the thread are confirmed town to each other) and QT stands for Quicktopic, which is a site we use in mafia to facilitate outside-of-game communication for those who have it (scum, neighbours, masons, etc).

ok so might as well out this because it doesn't really have any role impact- Via, Refa, Michelaar, and I have been in a neighbourhood QT since the start of N1. Mich/Elie haven't really posted anything in it, but the rest of us have been discussing the game a lot in there (I think we're up to almost 250 posts), and it's mostly all content, not spam. Like Paper said it's a lot harder to fake content and a town perspective when you're talking non-stop so Refa would have to be moling next-level if he's scum.

I was hoping Refa would respond to your post but I don't really like basing scumreads purely off interactions, and beyond paranoia I don't have an actual problem with his play. I'm a bit frustrated that he hasn't posted much this phase but I can't really see myself voting for Refa without him being in a 1v1 situation with me/you/Via.

kirsche's thing about Sully "sheeping but for the wrong reasons" is actually kind of bad because if he's voting for different reasons it's not sheeping??? It could still be opportunistically taking advantage of a wagon, but at least wrt my case I think at the time Sully voted me kirsche was the only other person voting me, so that wasn't the case there. The Prims vote is a good example though. However, this is kirsche talking to me about my Sully vote on D1 (albeit before he voted Prims): "HOWEVER, all of this is irrelevant as the reason Sully voted Shinori is because of "the timing of his vote" which has rightly been called out as ridiculous. The only part of your case that kind of rings true is that he is hopping his vote around and that the initial vote justification is wack. But being wrong doesn't mean he is scum, I would like to know a bit more about the scum motivation for these two things in particular, not the misrep stuff." this is another instance of him asking about the scum intent behind Sully vote-hopping, and this definitely reads more like "explain the scum intent here because I don't see it" as opposed to "explain the scum intent because I want to see if it matches up with my explanation". And yes, this was a while ago and lots of stuff happened after this but it increases my belief that kirsche is being inconsistent with which actions of Sully's are scummy. anyways we have just less than 24 hours and kirsche is probably asleep? he should claim when he wakes up. just a heads up that I probably won't be here for deadline, or if I make it it'll be with like 20 minutes left or something. or if my class is super boring and I have time to check the thread in the middle of it I guess

anyways I read through kirsche's posts about Shinori and there isn't very much there. He has one paragraph on D1 talking about how Shinori's play was weak and his Bartozio vote was meh, which he never really follows up on. That's partially because I don't think Shinori responds to kirsche or expands much on his Bart case, since he mostly attacks Michelaar on D2. kirsche as far as I can tell never talks about Shinori's Michelaar case though; he asks him a couple questions on D2; mostly prodding him to expand his opinion on kirsche, and then at the end of D2 says he thinks Shinori is one of the scummiest slots but says he'll have to reread him over the night phase. I think it's a liiiittle suspicious that he talked so little about Shinori but not a lot because this is partially just kirsche's playstyle. His "real-time" posts are more directed towards his top scumread(s) and his posts about other people are mainly through ISOs of them, and only really points out stuff in real-time if it's super egregious.

just because I didn't say "I'd like you to reread because you don't have your own examples" doesn't mean it's not implied from context. I talk about you crowdsourcing scummy actions, which is referring to you asking other people for examples. okay, I'll drop the other point about you asking Bartozio for the scum intent in Sully hopping around. To me it read like you were asking for an explanation because you didn't agree with that part, but I guess it could also be you asking to see if it matched up with your line of thinking. not really a fan of Sully's last few posts ;/ if you think kirsche's defence is just as likely to be desperate town as desperate scum, why are you voting for him? why does Bart simply answering your questions move him down as a scumread when you don't even like his answers for the most part? also I probably am currently spending about that much time or more on mafia but I also spend more time/effort than most people, especially because I have a lot of free time right now. I think as you play more you should be able to come to better/more accurate conclusions with less time and with better arguments.

I understand why you want to lynch Sully- his most memorable posts since D2 started have been the ones where he was making those night-kill analyses, or breaking down the Marth/Bartozio claims. Those kinds of posts are easy for scum to make because they're about objective facts, whereas scumhunting is all about subjectively analyzing the thread, which requires scum to fake a perspective they don't have. But those kinds of posts are also easier for new players to make. I wouldn't be totally opposed to a Sully lynch but as Refa pointed out a kirsche/sully/shinori team is unlikely because kirsche probably wouldn't have come into the day with his sole cases being on his buddies, and I think kirsche is more likely to be scum; I really do. I think Bartozio is more likely to be scum than Sully; I just don't want to lynch his claim today.

I'll fully admit I was not 100% sold on scum!kirsche at the beginning of the day. That's why I didn't start off with a vote against him, and I said 70% of my vote on him was PoE, and I said at some point "kirsche > bartozio > sully but I don't feel good about it". however his case against me today sucks and has made me more confident in him being scum. also kirsche definitely has enough self-confidence to push for my lynch so I don't see that as a point in his favour. here's another point- kirsche today, talking about how long he's been suspicious of me: kirsche on D2: it is true that he wasn't townreading me, and he did argue against some townreads of me on d2 (notably from Marth) but his wording today implies that he had some background level of suspicion about me all D2, which he clearly did not. I'll maaaaybe concede to him "keeping an eye on me" because he singles me out here over the other people. but there's definitely a disconnect in tone talking about me today vs D2- and the post is with a town!Baldrick flip in mind so the Baldrick flip doesn't explain it.

also the bit about me coming into the thread confident despite Baldrick flipping town is dumb. I'm more confident because we finally got an actual scum flip with which to analyze interactions as opposed to discussing them based on theories of who's scum. and yeah I was really disappointed and annoyed at myself after Baldrick flipped town but that was 24 hours earlier. If I couldn't get over my scumreads being wrong in that amount of time I wouldn't be very good at mafia tl dr of me vs kirsche me: please reread sully to flesh out your case because half of it is asking other people questions and waffling on Sully; also part of your case on Sully is that he's super jumpy but you didn't think that was scummy earlier kirsche: asking me to expand on my case without attacking it directly is subtly undermining it and is scummy; also you waffled on Shinori; also the reasons people are townreading you are bad me: no but like your sully case is barely a case; looking at the post it was clearly supposed to be secondary to a Shinori case, so talk more about it to flesh it out; also I did in fact directly attack the case itself; also I only waffled on Shinori in one post; people having bad reasons for townreading me don't make me scum kirsche: yes it wasn't that fleshed out but you saying it was "barely" a case is scummy; you're still not directly attacking my case; also all my questions are extremely important to developing an opinion; also here is a post where you waffle on Shinori; also you saying I waffled on Sully is hypocritical because you waffled on Shinori me: questions are important but they're not actually a case; also here is my attack on your case again; also I already said I waffled on Shinori in one post, that doesn't mean I waffled on him as a whole

kirsche wrote a lot of stuff and little of it is an actual rebuttal of what I said, especially the main points firstly, he reiterates the stuff about me undermining his Sully case. I said it was under-supported because it was supposed to be a secondary push, and asked him to provide more support to give him a chance to improve it. and if he wants to treat that as me "undermining the case" when half of his first post isn't even a case. This is the case: I bolded the parts where he actually says Sully is scum; italicized the parts where he's just talking about him or asking other people about him. Yes, he has reasons to vote based on interactions with flipped scum and Sully jumping votes a lot, which I acknowledged in every post talking about his Sully case. I didn't say he had no reasons! I just asked him to flesh out his case because: a) He makes the claim that Sully is hopping onto large wagons opportunistically and doesn't have an example. He asks other people to give examples! but sure, me asking him to reread sully so that he gives his own examples is scummy b) also, earlier when Bartozio made this point this was his response: this implies that at this point he did not consider that hopping about and voting people who are under pressure was scummy. then he talks about how I'm scummy for saying his Sully case is bad because he asks other people questions. I'm not saying that's bad! Asking people for their opinions on perspectives is good! But that's not a case. next, I literally said "I only waffled on Shinori in one post" but was consistently scumreading him otherwise and then to rebut that kirsche quoted that post and wrote two paragraphs about it; cool. He said in his first post that he would reread my D2 on Shinori and evidently he hasn't because starting D2 I talked about Shinori's posts having scum intent a lot more. it doesn't matter if you guys were playing OC like NOC; being able to communicate outside of thread makes it a completely different situation because Prims was able to take charge and town lead, which he couldn't have done in NOC. it's a lot easier to be proactive in OC doing the big Prims write-up just to kill him is a point in your favour (which I noted on D2 and is why I didn't push you before) but also it gave you an excuse to not say as much at the beginning of the phase? my point wrt bringing up the smogon game wasn't wrt early-bussing but wrt how hard I bus but if you want to argue I'd change my play based on losing that game whatever; I don't want to get into self meta too much

actually there isn't that much else in kirsche's post but given that kirsche was buddies with me in my most recent scum game he knows that I don't half-ass my busses; when I bus my buddies they get lynched. why would I as scum "waffle and half-ass" on Shinori? not to mention he also has me as a buddy with Sully and in that case I would also be not committing to a Sully bus either, after my D1 push against him. and then according to him it's also not townie that I didn't heap on the Prims wagon... so if I'm scum and I'm not trying to lynch town and I'm not trying to lynch scum who am I trying to lynch? it's not really true that I waffled on Shinori D1- I waffled about one specific post Shinori made where he got mad at Bart misreading him. The rest of the time I consistently said that I had a gut feeling he was scum, but I just couldn't directly tie it to scum intent, although I wrote several posts talking about how Shinori's cases were bad. I also was pretty consistently pushing him as a #2 read after Baldrick on D2. @Sully- ITP stands for Independent Third Party, which is a bit redundant but I guess it's an easy shortform.

"Marth being tracked to Shinori" is what I meant, not "Marth being tracked to Bartozio". I read the posts about this more fully and Elie's posts annoy me because Bart and Sully are new and I can see them jumping to improper logic conclusions here, but Elie should know that a) being tracked to a kill doesn't mean you did it, and b) a SK is very unlikely in a setup this size. I've gone back and forth on this and actually I guess Bart could be scum Tracker; it would make sense as a slightly weaker version of a Rolecop for a scum info role in a low-power setup. What worries me is that his targets were both people who had little to no suspicion on them; they both make sense as scum Tracker targets. The Refa target logic of "if he was scum, he would take the kill" is also bad because yes, while that's true, it's also true that given his low likelihood of being scum in the first place, you're probably not going to get a useful result? The way he claimed, to push a lynch on such faulty logic, has obvious scum intent too, but like I said earlier it's also easily plausible that he's just new and had bad logic? Overall I don't think I want to lynch him today because he could also be town Tracker but please pick an actual scummy person to target tonight, not a townie person because "if they're scum they'd take the kill". Even if you don't directly catch them taking the kill (besides, targeting a kill doesn't mean they actually took the kill), targeting scum increases the likelihood of catching them in a lie when they role claim, because they might lie about who they targeted. next post will be back to kirsche

@kirsche- okay I'll take at face value that you didn't have time to reread, but I don't know what the point of talking randomly about confirmation phase is, and the Prims meta thing based on an OC game is still bad, and asking what the scum intent in not wanting to reread the thread is ??? obviously that's scummy; why WOULD you as scum want to reread the thread and "improve your opinions" when your opinions are all fake anyways? but the scumread portion of kirsche's post is what is really scummy though because it's full of saying "these are bad reasons for townreading BBM" and "I could easily see BBM being scum" while barely even talking about what I've done that's actually scummy, other than asking you to reread Sully. That part is super contrived because the entire reason I didn't "pick apart" your Sully case was that you barely even had one. Half your Sully vote is asking other people for their opinions on Sully and stuff, and that's fine! It's obvious that you entered the day phase planning on voting Shinori and the Sully stuff was supposed to be a secondary push, so it's perfectly okay that your Sully case isn't fully fleshed yet, and that you were asking people for other perspectives but that also means it's perfectly okay for me to ask you to reread Sully and flesh it out. Your entire push against me reads heavily like an attempt to avoid getting PoE'd down. The other half of the Sully vote is Shinori interactions (which I agree with, if not as strongly as you do) and talking about how Sully is super jumpy and could be opportunistic newbscum. I did pick that last part apart by pointing out that when Bartozio made this same point about Sully being jumpy (albeit with a slightly different explanation of scum intent) you disagreed with it. anyways I'm out of time so I'll continue this after

this Marth thing is stupid; I'm a bit low on time because I want to make a detailed response to kirsche so I didn't read all the posts but I don't need to; just because he was tracked visiting Shinori doesn't mean he was the only one to target Shinori. this isn't a guilty. also even if SK!Marth thought that he was town, Shinori had a lot of suspicion on him and wouldn't have been a good night-kill target. Marth being tracked to Bartozio actually increases the odds he is town because there aren't a lot of mafia roles that target their scumbuddies and few make sense in this setup. Sully your logic is bad. voting Marth just because the vig would step in to save them isn't smart because it outs another town PR. we've probably outed two town PRs over this for no reason, outing a third would be worse. Elie use your townie interactions with flipped scum to reread the thread and produce actual content please because with the Bartozio claim the person who is more likely to be scum is you, not Marth kirsche response coming next post

A Thing wrt Shinori-Bartozio interactions- Bartozio at the start of D2 was like "yeah Shinori's D1 case on me was fine" even though it blew holes and then when Shinori yelled at him here for not doing shit he basically didn't respond even though he posted pretty soon after that. maybe because he knew it was a bit faked? I'm feeling better about that as a possible scumpair now Shinori/kirsche/Bartozio it's LOCKED you guys want to give up?

i'm also pretty sure Refa is town I was joking about the avatar thing it's a reference to SF3 where we were buddies and he changed his avatar every day to a slightly different looking anime girl with brown hair and nobody noticed

another question to kirsche, during your Bartozio case you said this: "His Sully case is good; I would like him to explain what scum!Sully is trying to achieve by just hopping about and voting people who are under pressure though". The context and wording with the "though" at the end implies you didn't see the scum intent in this, but you are now voting Sully partially due to this. What changed? your Sully case also feels weird because half of it is like... asking people what they find scummy about him or crowdsourcing scummy actions of his. This: "I think the worst thing is that he seems to be also hopping onto the largest wagon at the time each time which is quite opportunistic and I can definitely see newb!scum doing that." + the Shinori interaction bit is the only part of it where you actually find him scummy and are not half-defending him. I get that your reread was focused mostly on Shinori but I'd like you to do a proper reread of Sully. I'm going kirsche > Bartozio > Sully right now but I don't feel great about it. @Sully- most likely a vig, yeah. a serial killer is unlikely in a 13p game, and plus there was only one kill N1. also, this is an all-time great mafia line: "On a lighter note, we had a cow calve today and I've decided to name the new baby "Prims", after our departed friend. May this calf not suffer the same fate." do you live on a farm?

this is just difficult for me to take at face value because I get being busy and all but if the central part of your case revolves around something you know two other people are doing as well you should probably at least skim their posts? your reasons for picking Prims over the other two are because you expect better play from him and I think Refa covered how that's dumb on D1. question to you, who is the 3rd scum along with Shinori and Sully and do they make sense as buddies with both of them? ##Vote: kirsche this vote is also 70% PoE because I read Sully and Bartozio again and I just, idk I can't bring myself to vote for either. In a vacuum I'm leaning a bit towards Bartozio being more likely scum because I do agree that although his D2 content is good it's largely taken from other people and repackaged, but his interactions with Shinori are better. Either one of them is still scum or one of my other reads is wrong I guess SIGH Refa changed his avatar in the middle of the game, which could mean I'm wrong about him

janitors that don't give up flips after dying are the worst also I spent like 5 minutes trying to read the words on Shinori's character's picture I, too, think kirsche is a scumlord candidate but have a question from rereading: 1) On D1 you were initially a bit suspicious of Marth, and then later on through that day you said you were starting to feel better about him and that you were probably just being paranoid. Why? You were kind of just like "his page 6 is good". I don't disagree with that but then when I basically also unvoted Marth due to his page 6, you accused me of unvoting too quickly. Also, later on in D2 you were again like "BBM's Marth defence is good". I can't find the post again so I don't remember the context but yeah why did you post that? Did you briefly change your mind about Marth at any time on D2? things that bother me about kirsche: 1) the Prims vote for his votepark on Ken. He basically admits that he hasn't read Bart or Baldrick much to compare his play to their's, which bothers me because why not? since they were voteparking they didn't have a lot of posts, Bartozio especially. 2) comparing the Ken wagon to the Baldrick wagon. I'd misattributed someone else's D1 comment about Baldrick to kirsche I think but this still stands out to me because even though Baldrick was also town their situations were totally different. the play as a whole with regards to Baldrick confuses me a bit because it's a little inconsistent in that he's at first cautioning hte wagon and then egging it on and I feel like scum would pick one of those strategies and stick to it. I'm basically also deciding between Sully and kirsche; I don't think anybody is necessarily scummy from Shinori interactions but Bartozio and especially Michelaar/Elie look better because Shinori's posts towards them sounded too harsh to be scum bussing their buddy. I've early-bussed my buddies many-a-time and my posts towards them are always a bit apologetic because I feel bad.

idk the problem is that my confidence in my scumread on you has decreased in the past 24 hours but it also hasn't increased on anyone else to compensate so I don't know who else I would lynch; if you flip town I'd have to basically throw out everything and start rereading from scratch because my general sense of the game would have to be really wrong I'm maybe a bit more suspicious of Shinori because earlier in the day there were several exchanges where he was like OH YEAH GIVE ME PROOF (wrt both me saying his cases were weak and him being outraged towards Baldrick) and then when I gave proof he just didn't continue the discussion? also feels like he hasn't posted in a while and his posts have a lot of HOW DARE YOU in them and I can't remember Scumnori meta well enough anymore wrt snarkiness

the late day waffling is hitting me hard; this is why day phases should only be 48 hours it's a good thing Mack switched back from Sully to Baldrick so I wouldn't be tempted to start a turbowagon mafia is so much easier when you're judging people from the graveyard

@Baldrick- both lynching Mack and claiming a PR for a CC are last-resort ploys. But the former if executed correctly allows you to survive (at least for a day) and lynches a high-reward target, whereas the best case for the latter is outing a PR to kill but still dying today. @Mack/Paperblade- I don't think anybody coaches their newbscum buddies to the degree you're suggesting. The most I've ever done is give my buddy the idea of who to coach and a general line of argument. Also, consider how active he's been; his coach would have to have at least similar levels of activity so it would basically have to be either me or Refa and I'm fairly sure that regardless of his alignment Refa isn't coaching him. I also don't really think Sully's play this phase is too competent to be newbtown. His cases are either trying to find semantic holes in someone's play (ED2 Baldrick Case), voting for things that are "bad" play without considering context (late D1 Prims case), super convoluted logic like his Baldrick stuff from later today, or misreps like the vote on me. Those first two things especially are basically hallmarks of newb play because it's more difficult for them to spot actual scum intent without experience. The latter two things are more concerning with regards to making me think he might be scum but certainly not too competent to be newbtown. It just seems more competent because he posts more often and with more confidence and more words than most new players but that might just be his personality? The other thing that concerns me with Sully though is the number of derpy mafia mechanic questions he's had. One or two are fine but there have been so many and some of them are so out there, like asking whether scum have all our roles, that I'm concerned that might be faked. I'd rather still lynch Baldrick and even Shinori though SHRUG Michelaar makes my head hurt gonna sleep now; I'll check the thread in the morning and will try to be here for the last hour before phase end but like I said earlier I can't be on the thread the whole time

your tone's changed because you panicked when Mack first claimed and were just saying whatever whereas now you're calmer because you've had the chance to think it over more, but your play in both cases suggested trying to survive. the latter is what Refa is getting at, not the former mack says right at the top of his post where he claims that scum has his role PM so I don't know what to say it's just weird that your first thought was to be like "let me cross-reference all of Paper's and Mack's reads" when they're two separate people allowed to have separate opinions? first thing I did was check the rules in the OP to see what it said about hidden players and once I saw that that rule wasn't there and read the post with Paper's reads again it was obvious he was telling the truth