Makaze

@athena_57 @Killthestory Please claim all of your actions from N1 to now, including from previous players. If you have any other abilities, claim them now. Athena, of you or Beru are mechanically lying. Do not bullshit me.

In fact, that pretty much mechanically means Beru is lying, or Athena has another action that is not a night kill.

That doesn't make much sense, because we have confirmed that Kill and Athena's claimed actions have led to someone getting a QT day after their actions. In a world where Athena targeted me, he had to have used something other than his networker, because the only worlds where I don't have a QT are: a) Kill networked Via, and you don't get QT's with dead people. b) Kill did not network anyone. In this case, Beru being networked with Via is impossible because neither of the networkers targeted them.

Yes, but you wouldn't be allowed to quote logs? Ask SB.

lol

This post is fake AF. I just simply don't buy the second line. "I hated that Snike lynch" has nothing to do with the previous comment.

We have also hard confirmed Athena's power, and he needs to claim who he targeted with his QT night action. I seriously doubt Beru would lie about this, but one of them has to be. My first guess would be Beru is lying about the quicktopic, because they would not get a quicktopic with a dead person, but I am willing to consider this world (when I first tabbed SB and Iris about my QT, they told me they couldn't confirm whether I would get a quicktopic with a dead person or not until a role that does that had flipped.) @athena_57

Bolded: For the lynch, not the NK. But either is fine, if village still isn't willing to lynch him then it's fine if he dies on a delay.

Ask the mods if that's what happened I think that if Athena was visiting me and he was lying, I would be dead because he would be Mafia. I don't see how this makes sense.

I agree to be NK'd. @EvanManManMan can vig me and I have no problem with it If I am wrong about Walrein, I will become the lynch target anyway, and there are no more Mafia in my mind, so I have no problem with it. Omega is the alternative because he is still the ITP.

There is another reason for this. You'll see why when I die. Also, I seriously doubt that Mafia would night kill me after my mislynch was so close to happening.

Well, that explains the Blitz thing. Even if we assume Blitz sub in was before there was something submitted, this looks extremely bad and I think Walrein is unequivocally the lynch option. How does this make sense? Athena is a networker, so how could Athena have visited me and you have been given a chat with Via at the same time?

I don't, but I don't think it matters when I wanted to get my thoughts out anyway. If you think my mechanics are ingenuine, I'm not sure what to say in response to that. I think it would have very hard to post that after the phase started considering altogether it took me about two hours to write both of them, so you'd have to pick your battles and decide whether you'd like me to defend myself the whole phase or actually express my argument.

Wait a minute, where is this Walrein as Blitz thing coming from? How did Blitz end up in this game?

Confirmed no QT. So not sure what happened.

Continuing from the last post: I have mapped out every option I see and want people to comment on the mechanics. Walrein claimed Motivator. He claimed to have motivated Mack. After we speculated and continued to case him because it doesn't make sense for Mack not to save Kaoz, he said there was a mod error, and his N3 action got redirect to Mack. If this is true, it means that Kaoz's killer went through Mack's martyr, and Kaoz empowered them. I see these options, but I let me know if I'm missing any. 1. Walrein is lying about motivating Mack, and they are Mafia. 2. Walrein motivated Mack, but is lying about the mod error, and they are Mafia. 3. Walrein is not lying, and Kaoz empowered who killed him. Walrein could not be Mafia in this scenario (because motivating a jailer is never a good option for Mafia, period). I do not see how anyone can see this as irrelevant when Walrein lying or telling the truth gives us a mechanical reason to suspect him, or narrow the PoE down to people Kaoz was townreading. I also have some other speculations. 1. If Walrein is lying, then they probably motivated Shinori N1 and could not do it N2. This would probably mean that on top of Kaoz getting an item on N2, someone else probably got one too. That person is probably Mafia (and based on what Mafia expected, they would not have given it to JB. Therefore, he would have given it to Walrein in this scenario.) They could have motivated JB N2, but JB was a Rogue + Janitor and was probably going to get lynched, so this would be sub-optimal after Junko died. Therefore, it makes sense for Walrein to motivate Mack, which would ensure they have a chance to kill a protection role if not who they target. This would also lend Walrein incredible towncred when he claimed. I think this is the optimal move for MafiaMotivator!Walrein. 2. If Walrein is telling the truth, then Kaoz probably empowered his strongest townread, if not the person he jailed as someone said. If Walrein is Mafia AND is telling the truth (I think this makes no sense), then he empowered Walrein. I don't see where this read would have come from, so that seems unlikely. Therefore, I have the following PoE: 1. If Walrein flips town, then anyone Kaoz was townreading -- and his jail target -- have to be suspects. I genuinely have no idea who would be Mafia, and I believe everyone Kaoz mentions is town, so I have no reason to think this is plausible. 2. If Walrein flips Mafia, then he is the only Mafia, because there is no way the scum team has Shinori's strongman, a roleblocker, a rogue+janitor, AND a motivator, on top of something else. It's not happening. 3. If Walrein flips Mafia and there is another Mafia, then I am out of ideas. There is no way I can see Omega bussing Walrein as scum/scum, and I think everyone else looks good. In every case, lynching Walrein makes the most sense to me because it helps significantly narrow down the worlds where what is happening makes sense. It offers a mechanical reason to clear all of Kaoz's scum reads, and also lowers the PoE to people he might have empowered. That's way more helpful than subjective opinions. Important notes from this: Kaoz's empowerment is the key to this because it is impossible for any of Kaoz's scumreads to be mafia if Walrein is not lying. Kaoz being hijacked could only happen if someone had another Hijack item, which would require Walrein lying, and even before that, Hijacking Kaoz to the shooter would stop them from shooting. Someone else having an Empower item requires the same. There's no mechanical way around it. --Side note: Actually, I just thought of one. If Walrein did get a Hijack item, they could have hijacked both the jail and the empower to themselves, and they would be protected but still be able to shoot and motivate. This would also make the mod error impossible, but their target would be a lie anyway, so that's moot. I think it is actually very reasonable, and it is the perfect strategy if Walrein is a Mafia Motivator. I can definitely see a world where Walrein motivates Shinori, and they concoct this plan to give both Walrein and Kaoz an item, a Hijack to Walrein and an Empower to Kaoz. This would appear to be a town-motivate choice, but if Walrein has a hijack and Kaoz has an empower, then they can gain the protection without being roleblocked, protecting them from the ITP and ensuring their kill succeeds. It's the perfect plan. Could also use this on JB, the logic is the same. (I would have done this if I was them.) I think giving the empower to Kaoz makes a lot more sense if this is the reason. Hard clears in a Walrein as town world: Kaoz could not have empowered Lord Giaus because he was scum reading him. Therefore, EvanManManMan cannot be Mafia if Walrein is telling the truth. Additionally, nothing about the EoD would have changed this, so it's just not happening. Kaoz could not have empowered Sully because a) Sully's power is super weak and b) He was scumreading Sully at the end of the Day. Therefore, Beru cannot be mafia if Walrein is telling the truth. Even if the Arcanite flip did change Kaoz's mind, I think this empower is unlikely compared to empowering Mack, a confirmed player with a much stronger pro-town power. For anyone who is suspecting Evan, I want you to consider this and think about how what you're saying contradicts Walrein's claim. There is no way that Kaoz would empower Lord Gaius after what he said, even if he did change his mind about Sully and somehow overlooked the incredibly useless role (which would probably not even be affected by empowerment). Finally, Walrein lying makes Walrein Mafia, and there is no way around that. It comes down to: Do you think Walrein is lying? Why or why not? The most likely scenario (in my opinion): Kaoz always empowers Mack, and there is no reason not to do that. His power is confirmed and if he draws the NK, even from an ITP, it would be no loss to Kaoz even if he did scumread Mack (of which there is no evidence). Mack did not try to save Kaoz, but picked who he saw as the most likely night targets instead of the obvious ones. He succeeded on one of them. My bias says me, because I was consensus town and killing me would make Sully look guilty, but it could have been Baldrick too. Walrein is the Mafia and lied about most of their actions. They did motivate Mack, but are lying about the mod error. They are doing everything to make it sound like there is nothing against them, which is why the mod error was so convenient, and yet so problem causing. If you want to lynch someone else, how do you explain how that person killed Kaoz if Walrein is not lying?

Going to respond to stuff I couldn't at EoD. (This post is being written right after the EoD.) I am still considering a possible world where Refa is the ITP, not where he is Mafia. This is a very unlikely world, but we have to consider it because Walrein mechanically cannot be telling the truth without Kaoz empowering his killer. I'm not sure where this is coming from. There have been situations where I have considered the possibility of many people being Mafia, but I have only pushed what I consider the most likely scenario at every moment. eclipse I considered a case of her having bad cases. I expected better from her, and I wanted to be right because I thought be awesome if I caught her. After the lynch, I stayed on her because Kirsche did not make sense after the Junko lynch and I was tunneling, but I slowly came out of it when I started ISOing everyone I hadn't yet to try and find out who made sense in her scumteam. JB hadn't flipped either, so I wasn't aware of all of the mafia going for an eclipse wagon. When no one made sense on an eclipse scumteam, I decided she couldn't be Mafia, and Baldrick's content was a significant improvement. Then I considered a Kirsche world, and eventually read Sully. Sully looked like a perfect fit for the scum team and his tone didn't seem that great so I decided he was the person I was missing. His self-vote and Sully/Arcanite defending each other looked like caught scum and I just wrote them off until the flip happened. Then I actually read what was said, and decided Sully didn't make sense as Mafia. Snike I have had mixed feelings since mid-day 3 when he cased Mack and had strange defenses and behavior. You can see where I pushed him and tried to get him to accept that Mack was town but was town reading him. Then I said some of his posts pinged me as gas lighting, but overall, I was still townreading. This didn't change until he sheeped me on Sully with little prodding. While I was reconsidering Sully after the Arcanite flip I read Snike and all of the stuff I had suspected against Sully applied to Snike, plus all of the weird tonal things that had been pinging me from Day 3. He sheeped my Sully case very easily and almost purely based on Sully claiming watcher. It looked very bad at the time. Today I cased Walrein because I had been giving them a tone read and had not ISO'd them since my eclipse wagon. When I did ISO them, their associatives looked very bad, and I did not see any reason not to case them. Worse, their tone did match their scum game (brought up by Refa iirc). When Walrein claimed, I thoroughly vetted their argument and tried to find out if anyone else had been roleblocked to counter them. It looked like their claim is probably right, because no one else makes much sense, except for Eury or BBM (Who are dead). The main point against Walrein was that their claim to have motivated Mack didn't make sense with Kaoz dying. Then Walrein conveniently said that they had a mod error and that their motivation was redirected to Mack the night that Kaoz died. That still didn't make sense with Kaoz dying, and meant that Kaoz had to have empowered his killer. We analyzed who that could have been, and Kill seemed the most logical based on Kaoz's ISO. Then Kill defended himself and I bought his defense. That leaves a world where either: a) Walrein is lying b) Kaoz motivated someone other than Kill c) One of the non-town is Strong-willed When Refa did something that pinged me (asking me to make his case for him after he just did a quotewall on the player), I considered if it was possible that he was empowered and was playing me. I found out there was nothing stopping it, other than Refa playing perfectly up to now. So I pushed him to see what would happen. Also was convinced we were close to hammer because of Snike's comment. I never suspected Athena, Mack, Fable, via, or Refa until I thought about how weird it was that he had just done a quote wall but asked me to find out how Shinori reacted to the flips. I'm not suspecting Refa now after the way he responded to me, but I am still considering it possible if Walrein is not lying. This level of indignation seems natural, and I buy his argument that it was about time instead of playing me. It's far more likely that Walrein is lying. That leaves the simplest solution, which is that Walrein is lying, because none of the possible empower targets make sense. Even if you have a problem with my actions or don't like what I'm saying, I have a hard time believing you don't think I have a progression that makes sense. This is a bad argument whether Refa is town or not, because this is an optimal bus strategy if you want to become deep. It's WIFOM at best. That said, I don't think it's relevant if Refa is ITP (not Mafia). Why aren't you taking this seriously? Walrein read throughout the end of phase and I didn't see a single comment or case. He let us try to solve his puzzle without offering his own speculation, and I don't think town Walrein does that. Walrein has to be lying. I'm voting Refa because I think it's possible I'm wrong and just sitting on it isn't going to make evidence happen. Walrein has to be lying. He has to be Mafia from my POV. I accept your argument about the Shinori stuff. I'd prefer if you actually made cases yourself though. It's less tilting. These two posts show exactly what I'm doing. I am considering possible worlds where my PoE is wrong, and I am pushing for a lynch that I think is the most likely while not abandoning any other worlds. Refa's post pinging me would never have made it into the open if I never pushed it, and I'd prefer to bring it up when it happens than retroactively say "I was pinged by Refa on Day 4 but didn't say anything". That's not likely to convince anyone, undermines the reality, and I might not be alive by then. Try to consider that I am weighing possibilities when you are doing it yourself.

I wasn't expecting phase start until evening. Huh. I didn't get any PM so not sure what Kill did, but I didn't get quicktopic. @Iris @SB. ? I made a post soon after phase end, but I edited it out because I meant to post in PM instead of thread. I will post it in case anyone saw it because it wouldn't be fair to edit it after posting (unfair information). I will read up on longer posts after posting and respond, but please read my thoughts before jumping.

gone

##Vote Snike

on pc now this is the quote

I got no the but I think Snike said hey via vote me then we can hammer. On phone so can't quote. Check snikes last posts

This is more useful.

I made a promise and I intend to keep it (it all of Snike, Walrein and Omega flip and we are still playing, I will bow out, stop PoEing, stop defending and you can lynch me). Addendum: I will post enough to avoid a MK. I am not going to change that just because I suspect Refa. But I think someone should bring it up before that if no one is willing to consider it.

I don't see how my vote is a problem. Even if it somehow leads to a CFD there is more to be gained from that than hammering. The opportunism alone would be good info. I highly doubt most people want to lynch him so this is just pressure at this point. And my main reason. Not hammering.