Makaze

I think that him reading Snike town is possibly genuine. I also believe he doesn't give a shit if Snike is town. Not sure if you get what I'm saying, but I get the distinct impression that he doesn't care who town is. He might not know, and I think he really doesn't know, which makes it easy for him to appear to solve. But I get the very strong impression that he genuinely doesn't care, as long as he's alive. So any solving he does, is just for brownie points, and his votes reflect that reality.

I very, very strongly believe he is playing on you to pocket you. He's been over the top about everything. "Look who's voting Refa, everybody. Best player on this site Makaze, that's who!" It's all for show. I'm like... floored, that you're just looking at the actual result of what he's doing and not getting the feeling he is being slimy about how. He's literally said he will just sheep you for the rest of the game.

Just hear me out. What makes you think Omega is town? Have none of his posts made you doubt his intentions? What do you think his approach to the game is right now?

I'm just saying, don't vote them based on someone quoting one posts and framing it a certain way. Build your own case. I said this before about the Kill thing. I'll be mad if you just sheep Omega, who literally doesn't care who gets lynched, as long as it's not him, because he's smart enough to find something that could be construed as bad, when you didn't read it yourself/don't trust yourself. This is one of the reasons I townread Evan so strongly. He trusts his insticts and seems to have the, while still considering other ideas. He reminds me of me.

It doesn't make a lot of sense, which is why I think Athena could still be town, if they have a good reason for this. It needs to be really good though.

@Blitz The context for that quote is this post from Marth: This was nearing the end of D1, when Marth had three votes on him. The rest is kind of hard to find, but I'll manage it: First off, this village was largely bad D1, so LOL @ thinking we had possibly 3 wolves (I'm not townreading athena) being wagoned. That's just ridiculous with the nonsense that was happening in this thread D1. His role as mafia/SK would be EXTREMELY useful, so claiming it and effectively making it worthless when he didn't have to is such a bad play that I argue he never pulls as scum/ITP. Also, in the last game we played, Marth got frustrated and actually posted his role PM so he'd die. I think he was probably annoyed that he was getting wagoned/pushed here for shitty reasons (I read him as wolf last game, but once I learned he was innocent, I understood his town play more. I was reading him V as I was spectating this game, and I really don't think anyone who has played with him before should have been reading him wolf here), and claimed to get people off of his back. I don't want to link/quote where Marth did that in the last game or even discuss it because I don't want him to get a bad rep for it; I'm only bringing it up to illustrate that his behavior here in this game is consistent with what he's done as villa before. Also, I don't come/replace into the thread and put 3 of my bros on my wolf list, and I don't have that interaction with Shinori where he gets salty with me. I think everyone was calling him V for shitty reasons as well, so I would have just left him alone and proceeded to powerwolf with him. I also don't try to change the dynamic of the gameflow to go between Junko/kirsche; I don't think any of them were being wagoned/voted when I replaced in. It's silly that so many people have come at me today and some, maybe all, are actually villa. I've been trying to draw the kill, and y'all are pretty much ensuring that never happens out of paranoia instead of anything reasonable. @Refa You're right, I'm sorry for snapping at you. I'm just really, really sure you're wrong. Even if I've been wrong about my reasons for suspecting people, please trust me on these. You can sheep me on these. Promise.

I'm going to take that to heart, because I have been pretty hard to play with, but I don't think it's for not trying. I owe an apology to most people I have gotten killed. However, I don't necessarily think I could have done anything better, other than just not subbing in. Meh. I don't buy that you're scumreading me.

Bookie is not a fakeclaim IMO. The way it was claimed and has been vetted makes it very likely. See my post on the likely ITP claim here: Actually, first Marth claimed the role, all the way. Then, soon after Omega subbed in, I asked him to claim his role. He did so without complaint. His exact words were "Self-watcher/delayer". And THEN he said that he was trying to draw the NK in his defense post. I agree with you if he had not claimed. Kaoz died despite being targeted by Mack, according to Walrein's claim. So whoever shot Kaoz went through a Martyr. I simply can't accept that it's null. You have to interpret it one way or another. This attitude towards being unable to read intents is anathema to me, and it's why I am so confident in my reads. Nothing is null, except for someone commenting on role spec or giving helpful advice about site features. People claiming is always at least somewhat AI depending on timing. Like I said, not worth debating, you're just going to keep being wrong because the reasons you should townread certain people won't stick. You might be right some of the time, but you're going to get incorrect reads a lot if you don't even have consider your empathetic instincts, let alone trust them.

I mean From my point of view You read it, you either get the impression it's a fake claim or you don't You aren't of two minds about it You might change your mind later, but I took it as you scumreading it Because you can't get into someones head 2 different ways. they only had 1 way of thinking about it so point blank which impression do you get from the posts?

It's like... "What if he's Mafia, but he doesn't know he's Mafia, so he thinks of things that he would only think of when he doesn't already know the answer? Think about it man" It's beyond ridiculous to consider this.

Bets on who dies that night, if right, gains a vig for next night.

You're basically suggesting that any time someone does something that makes them look towny, they must have been doing it INTENDING to look towny. That's bullshit. It just is. The entire point of why it looks towny is that you CAN read the intent and TELL THAT THEY AREN'T TRYING.

Doesn't matter. If I can't imagine him even considering doing it, or what would have given him the idea to do it, then it isn't what happened. You're not considering him as a rational being. You're just looking at the results and assuming the worst without thinking about how likely it is that they would actually think to do such a thing rationally.

You're looking at results again. He was TRYING to clear Walrein. goddamn it man, read my words what people are trying to do when they make a post and what actually happens, or what they think in the next post can be different you're just looking at results and ignoring anything that contradicts it

Also, by this same logic, both Marth's initial claim and Omega's re-claim are bad for the same reasons, but made a million times worse because of timing and absolutely no solving logic behind the claim. What's more, Marth/Omega's role would be a million times more useful than Fable's rolebomb, so there is absolutely no reason to waste it when you aren't even being seriously considered for lynches. Explain how you can just fling this argument for Fable but ignore it for Omega.

That said, when I get into Athena's head I think that Athena as ITP DOES make some sense, because he did townread Shinori, despite Shinori having scummy cases on him. I think this means Athena genuinely doesn't know others' alignments, and it explains a lot about why I townread him. His solving is genuine. He speaks what he really thinks without a lot of agenda, and I think he is playing optimally as any alignment. I have to say, I'm surprised this is his second game, because he has played a better scum, town or itp than most of the players here. I don't mean that insultingly, I'm just impressed at how well he has handled the pressure and remained consensus town without messing up in a big way. It would be really nice if this is how we caught him, because I don't think we could do it otherwise.

That said, I would be wrong about Athena, but I think there is still a possible world where he isn't anti-town, depending on what his action is, but I think his hiding it this long is unlikely to be pro-town. I have literally 0 reasons to suspect Fable, especially based on associatives. Scum didn't even consider him in their strategy, let alone bus or avoid him as a player. Your reads are not based on getting in the player's head in context and that is always going to lead to us disagreeing, so there's not much point debating it, especially if you just go "but it helps mafia lol". I don't care about results, I care about the process. If the process contradicts what happened, then the process didn't happen the way you said. I'll change my mind when I'm proven wrong and learn from it next game. For example, I don't look at Athena not getting lynched despite the votes and go "the Mafia weren't serious about the wagon". I read the way Shinori treated it and the way Athena treated it and go "I can see why Shinori dropped it when he did because I am figuratively in his head in that moment". You don't think like this, and it's never going to agree with me.

This doesn't make sense in context. If that were his logic, he would have done it earlier instead of then. Like... I think people have natural processes. I can see how their minds are working. I can see a to b to c. Mafia would not be able to predict their own town mindset to the point of replicating the timing this perfectly to align with town motivations. It's more than uncanny, its impossible to time things in a way that looks natural, without it actually being natural. It will show in the word choice and pauses or pre-emptiveness, and nothing you can say will convince me otherwise.

I would claim if I thought it would solve the game, regardless of if it could potentially be of use later if I was wrong. Because if I see to solve I take it, and I don't like seeing a town get railroaded when I could save them. I think is how Fable thinks and that is why he claimed. He thought it would be solving.

I think that if Fable is town, there is a world where he knows he is consensus town, and doesn't want to draw the NK just to nullify scum's powers. It's not a good time to claim, he it makes even less sense from any other PoV. He was solving, and he thought that was more important than anything. That narrative is better than "He did something I wouldn't do, so he had mafia reasons, but I couldn't tell you what they were". If he is faking this tone as Mafia, he has been doing a much better job than Walrein or Snike, and I'm going be very surprised. But I also don't think it makes sense for him to help clear Walrein when he is already consensus town, and this makes no sense from a strategic standpoint. He made a mistake, but it's a town mistake, not a Mafia one, IMO.

Walrein claimed to have targeted him with a motivate and failed N1. Fable claimed bomb to explain it, reluctantly, and this is how it happened: I asked Fable if his claim could help solve the game. He responded: He read Walrein's claim, then said this: After thinking about it, he full claimed: Then he reread Walrein's reads list to see if it made sense to motivate Fable, and came up with this: Later, when I explained that Walrein had posted his pre-N2 reads and soon updated them in thread, Fable reread, and said, "You're right, it fits". I don't think this is a fake claim, or that it makes sense for him to have this solving progression with Walrein's reads.

We do not know what the numbers are. Possible tell: I kind of doubt that Blitz considers this question as Mafia, unless he always asks this. Doesn't discount any of the other reasons Walrein is suspicious, though. @Blitz We know there is an ITP, and that eclipse was jailed N1, explaining the failed N1 kill. Last night I suspect they both shot the same person, but others are not so certain. There have 2 kills every other night since then.

For what it's worth, I am leaning towards Athena as Mafia and Omega as ITP, and I don't think your slot is Mafia if Athena is. So we'll see how he flips and go from there. My conclusion on your slot is mechanics based, because I was town reading everyone Kaoz was, and don't see how Kaoz could have empowered his killer if I'm right about them. With mechanical reasons against Athena, I have reasons to suspect him, and Kaoz empowering him makes sense to me, so it's a real possibility. We know Athena has hidden something, but only suspect that Walrein had, so I'll go with the logical conclusion over the likely one, and see what happens.

By "Last Night" I mean the night Mack died. Still having trouble thinking of last night as a full Night phase.

I believe it's likely that Via was attempted last night, but Mack saved him (now that I think about it Via is much better for Mack to save than me. It also would explain why Via died and was the only kill: Mafia targeted the same person twice, but the SK went down the list of people they saw as harder to sway/more obvious town).