Makaze

dude keep reading. if you don't reply to the newest information and this is your last post i'm going back to lynching you please don't do this to me

Two people asked me for these. Truly, I am the greatest non-player of all time. Baldrick (2): Refa, Makaze Fable (2): EvanManManMan, Omega Omega (1): Fable Refa (1): Killthestory Not Voting: Baldrick You have until time runs out on this thing left in the day phase, need 3 to lynch, and 5 to hammer. formatted for better reading

QFT. That really didn't take long.

If he did not, then nix that. Lynching Baldrick better. Also more likely to gain actual content from him as a lynch target.

Proposal: We lynch Omega today and vig Baldrick tonight. @EvanManManMan Provided you were allowed to bet last night (on kills not your own vigs)? Were you? Did you win another vig?

Or he's the ITP and is refusing to lynch within his Mafia pool. It fits that win con. Also explains the lack of modkill.

@Refa, explain to me how this reason for wanting me lynched is town motivated. Explain to me in the words Omega isn't using, since you seem to get where he's coming from as a town who is trying to win. I'm not being rhetorical. Read this post and explain it to me like I'm 5. Please.

You're not going to get an answer dude. Even if you think he's town, you've got to realize his style at this point. He's just going to say "He's not the one who has tried to lynch such and such, so I'm not going to lynch him even if it costs me the game". i.e. he's throwing on principle, playing favourites instead of playing to win

They are all V. The PoE is an ITP and a Mafia between Kill/Omega/Baldrick. It's not going to happen how you want. End of story.

Or... it points to someone riding by on an early clear with no later re-analysis or pressure. Which seems far more likely to me, than someone being amazing at deep wolfing here. Because no matter who the deep is, they can't control the actions of other Mafia members. If it's not Baldrick, then it's Kill. I'm pretty sure it's Baldrick atm.

I think it's simple. Mafia didn't have a choice but to put some votes on Junko. We know this happened. What was more important to Shinori was distancing himself, and I think the real play they were going for was lynching Athena and getting cleared off of it. What I can be sure of is that there is no logical incentive to prefer Kirsche's slot over Junko's if both are Mafia. And I have strong convictions all the other players besides Omega are town. So that leaves you. Whether I can get the details behind the inner workings of the scumteam under duress exactly right or not, I can think of many possibilities that make sense and explain the behavior. When Shinori realized the eclipse thing wasn't catching on, he unvoted to distance himself completely, because his attempt to move stuff off of Junko was failing, and he didn't want to make eclipse look bad either. The best way you can change my mind is to case the real Mafia, not tell me why my case is shit. I can make any kind of case to justify what I know must be true, and it will make sense in my head. So just come up with a better one, that explains the actual facts, and if I'm wrong, I'll reconsider and sheep your argument.

Then you're not lynching.

We have Evan... And in this scenario, the Mafia and the SK are going to kill each other before it gets to 1v1 because SK's win kingmaker by design (hosts don't like kingmakers).

Yeah, no. This post is garbage. You put it there along with your entire philosophy on this game. Town are going to get invested and get confident in their instincts. Some people won't. Some people will be cautious and only push surefire stuff. That playstyle is also more likely to come from Mafia, because it's a safe playstyle. Those people are not better, and they can lose just as easily because nothing risked is nothing gained. How many wolves have you caught? Count 'em. None. How many wolves have I caught, albeit indirectly? Only the actual deep wolf, Athena. Neither I nor Beru -- who said I was the thing driving this game -- suspected Athena. And yet we caught him. Suck it, get over it, and get a way of playing that doesn't depend on bad sportsmanship.

Can you explain the kingmaker logic?

whyyyyyyyyy

And now you see how he's not even thinking about what he's saying. Hypothesis: Whoever the ITP is, they do not want the mafia lynched today. If they correctly read someone Mafia, they will probably defend them, especially if they themselves are in the PoE. Because they are next and they are down anti-town KP if they die. I think that the Mafia and ITP probably recognize each other and don't want each other killed yet. (This isn't the reason for this argument but Baldrick/Omega does make sense in that world.)

Killing Blitz was objectively the correct call, from my POV. By learning whether he was lying or not, we have enabled mechanical solving that wasn't possible, and Blitz was going be a mislynch if not a vig, just for that reason. I wouldn't be the only one to call for it after Athena was gone. Blitz was next on most peoples' PoE. I'm also not convinced he could be of much help beyond pure rolespec. He'd probably have agreed with my mechanical arguments, but I doubt he'd be able to contribute meaningfully to actually reading players in the game. Who was motivated last night, by the way?

If you're just going to quote vote counts, that's not going to sway me at all. I had solid reasons for thinking eclipse wasn't hunting Mafia, and I discounted her on the assumption that Shinori was patently NOT hard bussing, and therefore, Shinori and Jaybee's votes were both clearing. I think an entire 5 man team voting in unison is never going to happen. So just quoting votecounts is useless. You're going to have to tell me what your previous slot was thinking, which you can't do, OR, make a case on the real Mafia that convinces me.

I couldn't make out what you were trying to say.

Just ignore Omega. He has stopped contributing anything other than pot shots and "oh my god your case sucks go home let the adults play" -- not at just me mind you -- since I cased him the first time. I'd rather hear Baldrick's explanation himself.

I'd still be here and I'd be hardconfirmed so gg

You were 100% correct here. I believe this is probably what happened, and that if Baldrick were Mafia, the Mafia would have definitely decided to have him submit the kill instead. Simply less to worry about when a townclear does it. Like I said before, this was just on the basis of whether Shinori and Junko had cased them, and then Jaybee. At the time, I did not realize that Junko was hard bussing Athena, and thought Athena was town. A hardconfirm on Shinori running a hardbussing scum strategy completely changes the meaning of the switch. I see 3 possible scenarios: 1. eclipse was targeted by the ITP as both incredibly likely town claim that will never get lynched and potential voting power against them. 2. eclipse was targeted by the Mafia as both incredibly likely town claim that will never get lynched and potential voting power against them. 3. eclipse was not targeted, and the ITP idled their shot to hide the fact there might be an ITP in the game (short lived, and hiding it quickly became a non-thing). eclipse can be a Mafia member in 1 and 3, and the ITP in 2 and 3. So eclipse not dying N1 here is NAI, and does not clear them like I thought it would. I was just rushing my thought process.

Yes. This makes sense coming from either mafia or itp at the other. If a town jailer is convinced the other anti town could be too.

That was me eliminating her and then going at Kirsche. They can't both be town IMO.