(Mafia Sucks) SF Mafia: The Revival - GAME OVER, Town Wins!

[BBM]

@j00 I guess in terms of weapons's scum meta I don't have something this specific. But "this good player wouldn't do something so obviously bad as scum" feels like overthinking it. The thing that gave me pause is that it probably would have been easier to just keep the vote on rapier at least until rapier returned but I don't think it outweighs my general malaise about weapons

@Rapier Past RVS, I'm basically always going to vote for whoever I think is scummiest. I don't need to vote someone just to pressure them. 

[Makaze]

Between the wagons on Refa and Weapons, which one feels like it has the most town?

[Bluedoom]

56 minutes ago, charlie_ said:

I assume you're comparing their play here against IDNSFMM5? Tbh I think the circumstances are too different to compare this to like, The Thunderdome from that game - mostly that BBM is ignoring it unlike Yolo, and it's way earlier in the game. I will say that their reads feel kinda ineffectual in that I don't think anyone is really following most of them (except for the votes on you?) which is a bit weird? Culture clash is a thing but it does feel low impact for the amount they have posted.

I don't know where you got that I townread Boron from btw because I have repeatedly said she's null to me in previous posts. rn I am actually kind on the slot because the mention of Prims being gone feels kinda arbitrary. Prims isn't the only low activity person and Boron's previous posts had her townreading Prims, so I don't really get the sudden surge of paranoia there when they haven't actually found anything disagreeable about their content? Her Makaze vote is fine (and I guess the justification for the switch off of Refa makes sense) but I'm not in love with it or anything.

Rapier ignored my vote whyyyy. I don't feel any better about them from their recent posts, aside from saying Marth + Boron reading as same alignment (which is buddying Shinori again) I don't think they've said anything more and I'm not sure who they would be voting if they switched off which is like, not great. 

Still not interested in Weapons, I would like to see them come back for longer but their first pos last night felt like they were just trying to get their thoughts out without a ton of time and they managed more substantial content a bit later so it just seems real. I guess with j00 switching off he is not really in any danger of actually getting lynched through. Would consolidate on Refa, I don't have a strong read here but it feels like they mostly show up with okay content but aren't ever around to elaborate and mostly play catchup which is vaguely how I remember demotivated scum!Refa being. Need to see more like, prolonged engagements with anyone from them.

I have more to post but this is getting way too long and also I see Rapier has just cut me.

That's actually a my bad, because I checked again and realised that I mixed it up with Refa's stance since he's the one with the townread on me/boron/snike. Tbh that probably means I should be voting there, whoops.

 

Is IDNSFMM5 the MU game we played on with paper bussing his team?  But ya good point on the thunderdome thing; and I think I've been mostly trying to see if makaze has been showing multiple signs of appeasement because I feel like that's more telling. That said I'm unsure how to feel about it given that he's sort of been a concensus scumead so far. hm.

 

 

[charlie_]

I don’t think I was in the MU game so I can’t speak to that - I was thinking of the 200 page game from 2018ish where they spent several days locked in a Town/Town tunnel with Yolo. 

I don’t think it’s an appeasement angle from what I can remember of their posts but I find sticking anything to Makaze kind of tough because of the “disclaimers” I guess about their BBM reads essentially insulating them from criticism - or at least giving them an easy response to it (which I believe they’ve already invoked once). Not sure if this is culture clash but it’s definitely convenient.

[Bluedoom]

54 minutes ago, charlie_ said:

Isn't inconsistent casing just like. A thing mafia do because they need to push their agenda? Especially if they're struggling to make headway with other cases which is what Rapier feels like to me here. Logical inconsistency isn't a slam dunk or anything but seemingly forgetting your own opinions is messier and his continued vote on you is kinda iffy to me. Early on it was fine, but I don't think it's been well substantiated enough for it to last this long and idk where they would be jumping off if they did change their vote which is a weird combination.

Yeah hm. The thing is rapier forgetting his own opinions is within his town range so I don't find that too indicative, but I do agree that sticking the vote on me even at this point while defending the vote and not engaging much in the rest of the discussion looks bad. I have PTSD in mislynching the guy but uh. I don't think he's helping himself here.

 

Where are you at wrt makaze vs rapier in terms of your scumread right now?

[Bluedoom]

##Unvote ##Vote: @Refa I feel good about this vote

[Bluedoom]

18 minutes ago, charlie_ said:

I don’t think I was in the MU game so I can’t speak to that - I was thinking of the 200 page game from 2018ish where they spent several days locked in a Town/Town tunnel with Yolo. 

I don’t think it’s an appeasement angle from what I can remember of their posts but I find sticking anything to Makaze kind of tough because of the “disclaimers” I guess about their BBM reads essentially insulating them from criticism - or at least giving them an easy response to it (which I believe they’ve already invoked once). Not sure if this is culture clash but it’s definitely convenient.

tbh I don't even think the disclaimers are a result of a site culture clash;I think that's just Makaze's personality lmao
I don't remember stuff from the 2018 game other than the epic makaze vs yolo tdome...weren't both of them town in that game?

 

I should probably ask @BBM do you remember much from that MU SF revival game that we were in? I just remember getting N1'd for casing makaze and the mafia winning because paperblade was able to subvert some of his meta.

[Bluedoom]

2 hours ago, BBM said:

i don't really understand why people aren't feeling the weapons lynch anymore. I would agree that I think his posts have been better since I voted him but like... as scum it's easy to make good posts about why people are town. it's much harder to have good reasons for why people are scum and it's so easy to just default to the guy with one post* cuz you have nothing better. the one person he voted he backtracked on and then the only other person is prims where he's just using words like "austere" and still not committing to it more than a lurker vote

I also just don't understand how town!weapons could have gotten to a point of townreading everyone. i think it's been hard to find really strong scumreads in this game, but also I find there's a huge number of people who are just sort of in the middle. there's good poe and there's bad poe and just going "eh everyone who's active looks fine" is bad poe

i didn't have too much of a refa opinion until his most recent post. i dont have time to fully reread him atm but i didn't really like the makaze vote.

@Refa tunneling is bad, but is it as bad if makaze's case is actually good like you said his case against me was? the cam bit is a lot of waffling to put someone in scum at the end of it. what did you actually think about the content of what cam said? what's the difference between the people not on this list vs the null people on this list?

lol I had to double check to confirm I wasn't the one who misread but it's a 16p game.

Fuck and I thought I'd read it properly. Guess you've passed your reading skills on to me.

I haven't been scumreading weapons but I do want to say that I've been getting flashes of town weapons wrt how he pushes his scum reads. A guy with less words who's able to articulate exactly what problems he has with a player, felt like I saw flashes of it with his reads on prims and boron. I've since not been as confident about the townread because I think backing off of boron looks weird and I don't think Boron's play has changed that much to become a town read, I definitely expected him to push boron harder.

I do agree with j00 that voting elieson does feel like a scum vote though. What do you think?

[charlie_]

7 minutes ago, Bluedoom said:

Yeah hm. The thing is rapier forgetting his own opinions is within his town range so I don't find that too indicative, but I do agree that sticking the vote on me even at this point while defending the vote and not engaging much in the rest of the discussion looks bad. I have PTSD in mislynching the guy but uh. I don't think he's helping himself here.

Where are you at wrt makaze vs rapier in terms of your scumread right now?

It's not outside of Rapier's range but yeah, the surrounding context bothers me.

I would rather lynch Rapier first > Makaze second. I think Makaze's posting has overall improved from where it was but I did a quick reread over BBM because of the Makaze case + because I initially thought their vote onto Weapons was weird (just that post in isolation) but the priority was actually decently well substantiated in previous posts.

Where I'm at is they have some objectively scummy play* but while there are reasons for it** it feels kind of calculated so you can't reaaaally say there's a fault there, because they've already explained why they're doing it. Or like, you can, but they always have an answer. It's kind of a trap like that and I probably wouldn't want them around lategame without convincing reason otherwise if this continues.

* the prolonged BBM push starting with a conclusion and only having reason follow later
^ they admitted its a gut read and are trying to substantiate it when prompted

Elie is arguably more suspicious than Makaze but he also made One Post so for a lynch target that is just Not It.

Wrt the Thunderdome game: yes Makaze and Yolo were both town.

[Shinori]

Uh, I think yolo was scum in the super thunderdome game.

I was his buddy in that game.  Unless we are talking about a different one.

[BT.]

3 hours ago, Bluedoom said:

(personally I think Eli should be vigged here)

WAY too early, what possible information are you getting from this?

2 hours ago, Rapier said:

It frankly feels like what little I remember of Makaze and I'd think it's "town playing badly", since it gives him way too much flak as scum and he wouldn't really need to be all over the place, insisting & double betting on the same reasoning that got him pinned to the wall.

...if you're mostly going off of earlygame stuff and don't remember enough, reading their posts is a good shout? 🤔This is a really easy way to not have to think about Makaze.

55 minutes ago, Bluedoom said:

I've since not been as confident about the townread because I think backing off of boron looks weird and I don't think Boron's play has changed that much to become a town read, I definitely expected him to push boron harder.

But you were voting Boron and decided against it. Why does it look weird to you?

48 minutes ago, charlie_ said:

I would rather lynch Rapier first > Makaze second. I think Makaze's posting has overall improved from where it was but I did a quick reread over BBM because of the Makaze case + because I initially thought their vote onto Weapons was weird (just that post in isolation) but the priority was actually decently well substantiated in previous posts.

Where I'm at is they have some objectively scummy play* but while there are reasons for it** it feels kind of calculated so you can't reaaaally say there's a fault there, because they've already explained why they're doing it. Or like, you can, but they always have an answer. It's kind of a trap like that and I probably wouldn't want them around lategame without convincing reason otherwise if this continues.

The way I'm reading this is that you find Maka agreeable but would vote him off of bad cases/votes.. what about that makes them undesirable at endgame? I dunno, seems weird to say you follow their posts / processes and in the same breath say they're a type of unapproachable/unreasonable that shouldn't be kept around long term, seems contradictory to me.

[Rapier]

2 hours ago, charlie_ said:

I didn't really get what I was looking for there.

@Rapier Where is your Shinori read currently, and if you weren't voting for Marth right now, who would you be voting for?

Shinori has posted so much since then that I don't think it's fair to uphold the same argument that applied more to RVS and early D1 phases. I'd need to reread him. So far I'm neutral and I don't think my previous reasons hold any strength anymore.

As for your reasons for insisting your vote on me, I've justified myself in that I hadn't read your interactions with Shinori before, which were enough to suspend my judgment since my reasons to find Shinori sus were weak and early gamey. I did make a mental note that Shinori did a 180º on his opinion about me then, but this doesn't tell me much as it is. I'm neutral on him.

On Marth and BBM, I find their behaviors overall better since they've been one of the few people who tried to analyze tone rather than judge someone over their logic. Both are not exclusive, but bad reasoning does not a scum make, while intent is a bigger tell.

BBM I like slightly less, because his reasons against me are ok, but his reasons against Weapons seem way too subjective/"gut feeling" and it has been an easy wagon to push for a while. Of all the reasons from the people voting Weapons, his seem the weakest and most convenient imo. Still, I read BBM slightly more as town since back then he could've joined the wagon on Marth back then but chose not to, but this could also mean they're aligned as scum/scum, so I'm not sure.

I agree with Prims on Makaze distancing himself from him despite being one of his PoEs, but at the same time I just don't see why scum would insist for several pages on a reasoning that got them pinned to the wall. I also don't see how insisting on BBM in particular, or even starting a wagon on him for gut reasons, is benefitial as scum. Prims still gives me town vibes: He's posting less than I remember, but punctually contributing with decent posts.

Weapons' reasons to vote me are wacky and it also feels like an easy join on a wagon, and since then he has been taking a step back after getting flak for it but he doesn't elaborate why his opinion is changing. His previous content hasn't been given me much of a good impression either, although I wasn't sure what it meant about his alignment. I'd be ok with lynching him for D1, since it could also reveal a bit about the alignment of people he pushed against and give us more insight for D2 onwards than if we lynched Makaze, who's everywhere and giving too much noise.

 

[Rapier]

Just now, BT. said:

...if you're mostly going off of earlygame stuff and don't remember enough, reading their posts is a good shout? 🤔This is a really easy way to not have to think about Makaze.

I've read Makaze's most recent posts. They've just been way too repetitive for me to register anything new. If anyone has a counterexample on my take that Makaze has been insisting about gut reads, voting as he feels and being cryptic on his feelings, "conclusions first, evidence later" reasoning, please do tell me how I'm misrepresenting him. This noise makes it difficult for me to decide on which alignment he's more likely to be, because his behavior doesn't make sense to me as scum: He's attracting too much attention, doubling down on actions that are getting him flak.

Until I figure myself out better (which should be by late monday / tuesday), I'll uphold my judgment. We have ~34 hours, so

Unvote

[j00]

4 hours ago, Shinori said:

Game is weird. I'm not a fan of most of the top wagons at the moment.

What is current read on Weapons then? Your vote from ages ago is still on him, and you even called it sort of a pressure vote. Now that came back and has had a couple of pages of interactions and reads I haven't seen you react to him.

[Sunwoo]

I should not be awake right now, but I'll be afk for some 1.5-2 hours in a little while so this is the best time I'll have for a catch up post.

Wish Makaze would stop being so cagey about everything. His "it will not be possible to eliminate me today" sounds like it could be a lynchproof claim, but with the amount of WTFery he's spewed out since the game started he could also be bullshitting us into believing that. His response to Prims on "pleading the third" and to j00 are making me doubt their claim is actually a claim even more. Like, nothing he's done has changed my read on him and I want him gone. Vote stays.

Question to thread, is Makaze actually a role that can't be lynched D1 or a bullshitter? And if you think he's scum, would you be willing to lynch him D1 even if he might be lynchproof? (PS: Autocorrect is stupid, it corrected "lynchproof" into "lunch-roof". How do you turn off the autocorrect on this site)

I didn't really touch Refa's big post earlier because I was super tired. I think Refa was always going to have vastly updated reads from what they last had just because a lot of stuff had happened before then. Honestly, I'm still not wholly comfortable with them because they just feel like they haven't been in the thick of the action, if that makes any sense, so you don't get to see their reads evolve in action so much as they post updated reads after everything that had happened. Still a slight scum read here, would consolidate but not vote at the moment.

Weapons Rapier case and the way he backed off it just didn't feel very good to me, it kind of felt like he was going after someone he felt was "caseable" and then dropped it when he couldn't defend it any longer, and ... well, voting Elie sure is a choice when he's been barely around. Would vote, would consolidate.

I, uh, need to go right now and haven't formed enough of a read on my one read through of SB's new stuff. To answer your question, I called out Prims's earlier lack of presence specifically because I'm used to Prims being generally more active early on, and because most of the other people who were gone had explicitly given reasons for being sparse so I didn't expect them to be around.

More later when I get back. Which is whenever I'll be back.

[BT.]

  

2 hours ago, Makaze said:

Between the wagons on Refa and Weapons, which one feels like it has the most town?

Answering this because I wanted to go over the votes anyway. Here they are:

 

Bluedoom (3): Makaze, Rapier, Snike
Makaze (3): Elieson, Refa, Sunwoo
Refa (4): BT., j00, Prims, Bluedoom
WeaponsofMassConstruction (2): BBM, Shinori
Elieson (1): WeaponsofMassConstruction
Rapier (1): charlie
Not Voting (2): CT075, Percivale

 

To be honest this isn't how I remembered the wagons, must be all the people who expressed interest in Refa but haven't switched yet, I'm fine with the people on the wagon with me at the present time. I'm fine with BBM and Shinori as well, so to answer your question, mine because it has more people, but both seem town motivated if we're just going by votes. I feel like that's a technicality though because there are a lot of people who are expressing interest but not committing yet.

[Refa]

  

10 hours ago, Makaze said:

@Refa I may have just found out what was bothering me. It feels like you are being uncharitable with your reads. You have consistently (I may have a bad memory) listed both good and bad points about people, and then sided with the bad. Your case about me just now was an extreme example, but it's not the only one. Pretty much every bullet point in that wall seems like you decided who was town ahead of time and then made up some arguments to justify it. i.e.When someone has a case that you disagree with you do the same thing, and ultimately you end up choosing what you were going to end up anyway, and it feels like a performance.

On top of that, our reads are almost polar opposites, and that is not what I expect from someone of your caliber

Entertain me for a bit. Who on my wagon is the most suspicious?

For me, I'm listing my thought process and the scum leans are worse than the town leans. Who is on your wagon? I remember Boron and Prims, at this point I trust Boron more than Prims.

8 hours ago, BT. said:

@Refa Why should I be reading you charitably? That's how your post felt to me, sure it's not a good look as scum, but am I supposed to give that a pass because you could've done better in theory? Whole thing seemed very weak to me. You've done a 180 on it now; what's your read on gamestate in a world where Makaze is town?

No, it's that you've decided that it's scummy despite there being no reason that it is scummy. If Makaze was town, I'd look at my nullreads more. Rapier isn't based on Makaze being scum so I still feel fine about it.

7 hours ago, Prims said:

@Refa tbh some of your reads strike me as padding or disconnected:
- Putting Cam down as an actual scumread comes off purely as a mafia 101 "he is not voting" thing which is like, yeah I want Cam to vote too, but when you've never had anything bad to say about his content itself it feels superficial given personally I've been under the impression Cam hasn't been voting in part due to irl circumstances (drunk and forgot first time, then still behind on thread the next). It's like the easiest prod you could make in the current gamestate and in fact I had already questioned Cam so it's almost redundant or something. (Though Cam is purely a ? read for me.)
- The reads list doesn't include every player so I have to conclude putting a player in null must be for a specific reason, in which case why is Elie there? I have the impression Elie isn't a common suspect so much as people didn't really like his one post and are waiting for more. But you doesn't really have anything unique to add about him either. This remark feels weird? Like it's some kind of obligatory read made out of a perception of game state that doesn't seem accurate to me.
- This is lesser but I'm curious how you basically following Shinori on the Rapier read relates to your opinion of Shinori, if at all.

-It's not him not voting, it's the reason he's not voting. He's not pushing who he feels bad about which is bothering me.

-I had the impression that Elie was a common suspect, are we reading the same thread? Like several people have said they felt bad about him.

-It's more the other way with Shinori. Because I feel good about Shinori, I don't feel bad about following their Rapier read.

-The other nullreads I listed were either because I had an actual read going on there that could change. Everyone else not listed I barely had a read on, so I didn't bother.

5 hours ago, j00 said:

I think their posts the entire game has been a lot of prodding and answering questions, but not so much pushing them on questions/answers they find off? Like they have comments, answers and prods on everyone but then their actual list of reads feels disjointed from the comments. I don't feel them actively pushing on their scum reads. The read on Rapier seems more negative but then votes Makaze which partly feels like sheeping (Prims).

I would like to hear more from Elie, Cam and SB. Elie's first post is incomplete and Cam still haven't placed a vote. 

##Vote: @Refa

What about my reads feels disconnected? I've engaged with all of my scumreads so far.

I feel stronger about Makaze because they've been actively engaging more than I do Rapier.

4 hours ago, Bluedoom said:

@Refa This is going to be similar to what I asked SB but, assuming that in a 17p game the numbers are either 12/4/1 or 12/5. Let's say you're right about Rapier/Makaze. Where would you look for the other 3 anti town, and why? I am factoring in the town reads that you have in your reads list while asking this question.

That's easy, I'd look at the people who townread Rapier earlier on but ignored him later on in the game, or just people who have slept on a townread of him without updating it. Makaze I think I'd look at people who refused to engage with him, it seems like an easy pass for scum to do.

3 hours ago, BBM said:

i don't really understand why people aren't feeling the weapons lynch anymore. I would agree that I think his posts have been better since I voted him but like... as scum it's easy to make good posts about why people are town. it's much harder to have good reasons for why people are scum and it's so easy to just default to the guy with one post* cuz you have nothing better. the one person he voted he backtracked on and then the only other person is prims where he's just using words like "austere" and still not committing to it more than a lurker vote

I also just don't understand how town!weapons could have gotten to a point of townreading everyone. i think it's been hard to find really strong scumreads in this game, but also I find there's a huge number of people who are just sort of in the middle. there's good poe and there's bad poe and just going "eh everyone who's active looks fine" is bad poe

i didn't have too much of a refa opinion until his most recent post. i dont have time to fully reread him atm but i didn't really like the makaze vote.

@Refa tunneling is bad, but is it as bad if makaze's case is actually good like you said his case against me was? the cam bit is a lot of waffling to put someone in scum at the end of it. what did you actually think about the content of what cam said? what's the difference between the people not on this list vs the null people on this list?

lol I had to double check to confirm I wasn't the one who misread but it's a 16p game.

What do you think about Weapons' Rapier read? Where are you getting townreading everyone from?

You misunderstand. I thought his initial case is good, but his followups were bad. I don't think I'm waffling on Cam at all. His content reads well but the fact that he's not pursuing his scumreads is bothering me. I mentioned the difference above in my response to Prims.

@Rapier Who are you scumreading and why?

@charlie_ I don't get your thoughts on me. You've mentioned being iffy on me and would vote to consolidate me despite sharing scumreads with me and I don't feel like you've ever brought this up. What's going on there?

Hmmmm...on my wagon I'm not worried about BT, it feels like j00 flipped on her earlier read without really any progression? The only thing there is how my Rapier read seems stronger than my Makaze read, but otherwise doesn't really look into anything and just kind of goes with their previous reasoning. Not sure about Prims, I think I want more responses there today. I think Marth's progression on me has been fine, nothing about it has bothered me.

 

[Refa]

Oh, I forgot Elie was voting Makaze. I feel worse about him than Prims.

@BT. Actually ignoring me, where are your reads at?

[Bluedoom]

  

8 minutes ago, BT. said:

WAY too early, what possible information are you getting from this?

But you were voting Boron and decided against it. Why does it look weird to you?

So that's in response to the idea of Elie being a possible lynch; I think lynching Elie is a waste because that's a slot with one post, so it isn't valuable to flip for associative reads especially since people, whether its bad town or scum, will be harping on that as their contribution for the day. Easier to resolve the slot and discussion via a vig.

 

Tbh the entire day I haven't felt like Boron's content has changed my mind much on her slot, but the reason I decided not to pursue that today is that I didn't want to get clouded by tunnel vision, and I hadn't spent some time thinking about other people in the game. I definitely don't think there's enough to change my read, or honestly anyone who has scumread her, from scumread to townread. Like Weapons' reasoning is "well she's acting like how she was doing in ED1 so I'm ok with it" which is like... how do I buy that?

[Bluedoom]

I guess I got cut by Boron, whoops.

[BT.]

3 minutes ago, Refa said:

Oh, I forgot Elie was voting Makaze. I feel worse about him than Prims.

@BT. Actually ignoring me, where are your reads at?

Got home and wanted to get a quicker post off before I do a deeper dive.

[Bluedoom]

Well I guess to expand upon why it feels different, I also had a constant back and forth with Boron which weapons didn't have, I'd think he'd want to engage a little more in discussion with her here

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Bluedoom said:

  Tbh the entire day I haven't felt like Boron's content has changed my mind much on her slot, but the reason I decided not to pursue that today is that I didn't want to get clouded by tunnel vision, and I hadn't spent some time thinking about other people in the game. I definitely don't think there's enough to change my read, or honestly anyone who has scumread her, from scumread to townread. Like Weapons' reasoning is "well she's acting like how she was doing in ED1 so I'm ok with it" which is like... how do I buy that?

Do you think Scum!Boron would vote Makaze there over like you, or uh...I don't remember the wagons but a bigger wagon, at the time? What did you think about these posts? This is what made me townread her personally.

That's probably the one thing that bothers me about Weapons. How do you feel about his thought progression and his Rapier read in particular? That's what made me feel better about him overall. It doesn't read as fabricated to me.

2 minutes ago, BT. said:

Got home and wanted to get a quicker post off before I do a deeper dive.

That's fine, I just realized I don't even know what you're thinking.

[BT.]

3 minutes ago, Refa said:

That's fine, I just realized I don't even know what you're thinking.

Ahh oops, misread the intent there. I lean scum on you, Charlie and Elie and the list of towns/nulls I'll leave to myself until I'm done digging in a few hours.

[Bluedoom]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

Do you think Scum!Boron would vote Makaze there over like you, or uh...I don't remember the wagons but a bigger wagon, at the time? What did you think about these posts? This is what made me townread her personally.

That's probably the one thing that bothers me about Weapons. How do you feel about his thought progression and his Rapier read in particular? That's what made me feel better about him overall. It doesn't read as fabricated to me.

That's fine, I just realized I don't even know what you're thinking.

Well if you check the votals in that page I was the sole big wagon at that time and I think butting heads with me and locking herself into that vote wouldn't be good for her. After that the options are Snike or Makaze so that doesn't seem so far fetched from a scum play perspective.

Like yes I think that can come from town disengaging to pursue new leads but there's nothing that screams out to me like I need to take a 180 there.

 

I'd have to reread the rapier progression because at first glance I thought that being wrong about rapier having no doubt was a backpedal but I think the stronger indicator for me was his Elie vote because...I don't think I've ever seen scum go "I have too many townreads and idk what to do so I'm going to vote the guy with one post in the game."