shroudening Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 Cap'n Crunch= Carriage driver? How about a pirate ship... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted March 14, 2010 Author Share Posted March 14, 2010 Yeah, he was kinda being an idiot--*shot because I died already* It could've been the alpha wolf. Last game I don't think they stated that Hero was the godfather until the end. *probably is shot again* And this would be the reason I'm going to seriously consider asking for a mafia subforum that I can moderate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crysta Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 (edited) I suspect he may have been pwned simply because he seemed to be active up until this night phase. Obviously if he reappears, I'm wrong, and we may rejoice. EDIT: We can just promise to lynch Rein in each game he participates in henceforth if he continues to be a dick. Edited March 14, 2010 by Crysta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted March 14, 2010 Author Share Posted March 14, 2010 Day 4 Begins Guess who got Heart Gold today. I did! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deliriyum Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 hmmmm.....I'm not really sure what to make out of the updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 Alakazam's was probably just for lulz. Crysta... I dunno, I can't see anything obvious. There's also no hint of Mafia/Werewolfness in either, which doesn't help. Anyway, CATS, explain yourself. I suspected you were innocent, but I'm willing to... suspend that belief in light of your new post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CATS Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 What makes you so certain Reinfleche wasn't the godfather? I forgot that a mafia has already died. Regardless, my point remains--the godfather could still be alive, and indeed it's likely that he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 Okay, that actually makes sense :P. No voting CATS then. Hmm... actually, Bizz said he was going to investigate you tonight didn't he? ...and actually, Bizz is still alive... I'd have expected at least one side to target her by now but I suppose it's possible they're both hoping the other gets there. Well, for now it's more likely she's telling the truth, so... I'll wait for more evidence/votes comes up (or look for my own when I have time). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CATS Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 (edited) The attacker used shadow ball on Alakazam. Anyone have shadow-y or ghost-y images in their profiles? Hikarusa has something vaguely like that on her About Me page, the avatar of whatever b7 user is in that screenshot. Not strong evidence, but nothing is in this game. Because I've been generally suspicious of her forever, because of the stuff I said earlier, and because I see nothing better, I'm gonna cast the first vote on Hikarusa. I do worry that we're being duped by a ghost mafia, though. What if the mafia is people like WoMC and messy mike who rarely or never post in the topic, and they're just watching and letting us tear each other apart on these lynches? But there is no way to procure evidence that this is what's happening, and it's entirely possible that those people are cits and they're just plain inactive, so meh. EDIT: voted changed Edited March 14, 2010 by CATS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 Oops... I forgot I was investigating CATS and investigated Generic Officer instead. He's innocent, fyi. Whyyyyyy do I keep getting innocents?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shroudening Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 (edited) Voting Hikarusa. *Post edited to cancel vote* Edited March 15, 2010 by Isaac55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 Because there are more inncents than guilty :P? Remember, there's 5 people that return guilty, 1 of which is innocent (and dead, if you're telling the truth), and 22 that return innocent, 2 of which are guilty :P. So given that there are 12 people alive, 4 are guilty, and of those the 8 innocents return innocent and 2/3s of the guilty return guilty (probably 3) you only really have a 1/4 chance of finding someone guilty. More precisely, at this point if someone is guilty, we know 100% they're guilty, and if they're innocent then there's a 1/7 chance they're guilty ( based on the fact that there are 8 innocents and 1+1/3 guilty who give innocent and 1+1/3 is 1/7th of 9+1/3). Anyway, explaining Bizz's luck aside... I'm beginning to get more suspicious of CATS now, as I've said. Yeah, there's still a 1/7 chance of guiltiness after being found innocent, but it still seems a very tenuous grounds to vote on. I can't think of who else was targetted but, I don't think it matters. On the other hand, CATS does have at least some evidence (not in his last post, but yesterday), and those people who were mentioned might be too... looking at the first post, Messy Mike, Generic Officer, Pride, WoMC and Lychees are people I haven't seen much of. Wow, almost half of the survivors actually, and I bet at least 1 of the Mafiwolves is among them, but who to pick? Generic Officer I think was mentioned as a suspect (but Bizz investigated so probably not). Ehh... Anyway, the people I'm looking at today are CATS and Hikarusa, as well as 4 of the 5 mentioned above, but in that order right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CATS Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 Well, it is true that Hika is still statistically more likely to be town than mafia, and the evidence against her is not conclusive. The problem is that I don't see any evidence in favor of who we should lynch instead. But the fact remains that someone like, say WoMC, has 3/11 odds of being guilty (assuming Bizz is innocent), while Hikarusa's odds are less than that (exactly what they are, we can't know, since we don't know if godfather/alpha wolf are still alive). Odds for the godfather to be alive are over 50%, while odds for alpha wolf are under 50%, so let's say just the GF is still alive. Hika's chance to be guilty would then be 1/9; 11% vs WoMC's ~27%. And again, we have little to no convincing evidence against anyone. After considering this, I remain suspicious of Hikarusa, but I'm going to change vote to WoMC for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeaponsofMassConstruction Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 With that, now CATS seems suspicious. We have 4 (?) days worth of information to look over and you want to go back to random voting when the percentages certainly don't favor us? On top of this, there was the whole godfather vs alpha wolf issue last night, which is a pretty blatant scumslip, imo, since I don't see how you can differentiate between the two based on what's happened so far. Vote: CATS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 I'm like trying to choose between Hika and CATS now; I really should've investigated CATS first ;__;, but I think the evidence is really starting to point at him anyway I don't know, I'm at a losss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CATS Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 (edited) lol, i told you i'd be up on the chopping block today With that, now CATS seems suspicious. We have 4 (?) days worth of information to look over and you want to go back to random voting when the percentages certainly don't favor us? The percentages don't favor us no matter who we go for. There's alot more of us than there are of them. If you have something better than random voting to offer, do share; I'm just trying to go for someone who has the greatest possible chance to be mafia, which means not Hikarusa (again, assuming Bizz = detective). On top of this, there was the whole godfather vs alpha wolf issue last night, which is a pretty blatant scumslip, imo, since I don't see how you can differentiate between the two based on what's happened so far. If you're referring to the fact that I forgot a mafia died first night, that's a pretty bad reason to vote on someone. Why would I fake a mistake like that? Edited March 15, 2010 by CATS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeaponsofMassConstruction Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 If you have something better than random voting to offer, do share Yes, that is to actively use what we have learned to determine the most suspicious suspects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dracohon Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Odds for the godfather to be alive are over 50%, while odds for alpha wolf are under 50% Actually, odds for Alpha wolf being alive are also over 50%. Only 1 Mafia and 1 wolf have been killed so far. If you're referring to the fact that I forgot a mafia died first night, that's a pretty bad reason to vote on someone. Why would I fake a mistake like that? The point is that if you are a Mafia member you would know for sure whether the godfather was still alive or not, and might have accidentally let it slip. That said, I don't believe the evidence against CATS is strong enough for a lynching. I'm still leaning toward those players who haven't been posting much. I'm going to re-read through the threads first though. I think it's a bad idea to just take random votes this late in the game. @CATS: Is there a reason you chose WoMC, and not one of the other inactive players? Or was it just entirely random? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CATS Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 (edited) Yes, that is to actively use what we have learned to determine the most suspicious suspects. Out of curiosity, what makes me the most suspicious suspect? Is it just what Dracohon said? The point is that if you are a Mafia member you would know for sure whether the godfather was still alive or not, and might have accidentally let it slip. Yeah, I guess that's true. Actually, odds for Alpha wolf being alive are also over 50%. Only 1 Mafia and 1 wolf have been killed so far. Damn, you're right. My memory's been horrible this game, I thought 2 wolves had died for some reason. The chance for Hikarusa to be town is still higher than for someone like WoMC even if they're both alive, though. 4/11 (36%) for WoMC, 2/9 (22%) for Hika. @CATS: Is there a reason you chose WoMC, and not one of the other inactive players? Or was it just entirely random? He's obviously paying attention to the topic, yet not really posting much or adding anything, so I think he's more likely than people that don't even look at the topic. Other than that, entirely random. Edited March 15, 2010 by CATS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 CATS is responding well under pressure in my opinion. Where did you get your fractions from though CATS? Were you taking in to account the people Bizz already found innocent? I'm tempted to agree with CATS. WeaponsOfMassConstruction has been paying attention but only posting a little. Seems suspicious enough and we somehow still have almost nothing to go on. I'm also still a bit suspicious of Dracohon - I'm probably forgetting something, but why did we just stop looking at him, have I forgotten something that happened? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CATS Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 CATS is responding well under pressure in my opinion. Where did you get your fractions from though CATS? Were you taking in to account the people Bizz already found innocent? Oh, no, I didn't think about that. Who were they, and how many? The fractions I used came from the fact there's 12 remaining players and Bizz is assumed innocent. 4 people who could be guilty out of 11, so that's the chance for anyone that hasn't been investigated. Since Hika was investigated and an innocent result returned, it means she's one of a possible 9 people who would return an innocent result (assuming GF and alpha wolf both alive), and out of those 9, 2 are actually guilty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Okay, that's the same as me minus removing Bizz (which makes sense if we believe she's telling the truth - although I think it's fairer to say each Mafiwolf will be 2/3rds guiltyand 1/3rd innocent when investigated (i.e. 1/3rd chance of being Godfather/Alpha Wolf). CATS: WoMC I Eat Tables: WoMC WoMC: CATS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uguu Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 I don't really know who to vote for but I'd just quickly like to say while I have internet that I'm still existent so don't modkill me Spoon please ;_____; I'll probably be able to get on the internet again tomorrow so~ also while I did lead lux and cap'n to their deaths, one made something up to get someone lynched, and the other brought the detective out and attempted to waste one of her night phases Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted March 15, 2010 Author Share Posted March 15, 2010 Night 5 Begins w00t? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deliriyum Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Oh cool we got a werewolf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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