Carnival Phantasm Mafia

[Paperblade]

In EARLY day 1. After 24 hours you should have something to go off of with most players then just random voting. Also,that was just one concern I brought up. Switching votes so fast gives your votes no weight, and a vote without weight is hardly a pro-town vote.

Possible scummy behavior shouldn't be automatically discounted because of the player. If you do that and that person at some point is actually scum, how are they ever going to be caught? :/

Key word is should. Some people aren't talking.

[Pride]

It seems to me like he's not at all interested in helping getting information out or helping the town out at all today.

I'm not exactly the least active dude in the game right now you know

I mean I'm close so I understand where you're coming from but my inactivity is more based of the feeling that I honestly don't have a clue right now

At this point I'm just wondering whether or not to leave my vote on BBM.

I don't really get a bad feel from him and like I already said manix's outburst doesn't really figure towards scumishness.

But as Haze has said, his lynch could be informative.

So I'm going to just leave things as they are unless a much more obvious place to put my vote comes up.

as for other goings-ons

I see the logic Capn's votes and don't have a problem with them.

everyone else

I am still forming an opinion on.

[Ether]

Announcement

I am having computer issues(mainly that my adapter is no longer charging the battery). If I am unable to fix it within the next two hours, I will be pretty much gone until I can buy a new adapter(I may be able to get myself on elsewhere, but not enough to do much of anything). If this happens, Balcerzak will be hosting this game on his own(Reinfleche may assist him, as he is already in the position of a fully IO)

Thank you for your time, and if anyone has any advice while I'm still around, I'd love to have it.

[Elieson]

Do you have a phone that can access da forums?

And, when plugged in, does your laptop.hold the charge? It may serve you better to temporarily dock your lappy ?

[Balcerzak]

If I have you listed as voting for someone you're not, alert me to my error. This will probably be the last votals before the end of the day. Any other ones are your own responsibility.

BBM [3]: Bluedoom, Pride, Haze, Manix, Blitz, Elieson, Kay

Kay [3]: eclipse, Manix, Blitz, Marth, BBM

Marth [2]: eclipse, Paperblade

Pride [2]: scorri, Kay,

Blitz [1]: Manix, BBM, Strawman

Elieson [1]: Iris

Bizz [1]: Elieson, Strawman

Nano [1]: Paperblade, Subieko

Subieko [0]: Blitz, Bluedoom, Kay

Strawman [0]: Paperblade, Blitz

Paperblade [0]: eclipse, nano

eclipse [0]: subieko, Haze

Iris [0]: Paperblade

Manix [0]: Blitz

[spoiler=mid votals]BBM [5]: Bluedoom, Pride, Haze, Manix, Blitz, Elieson, Kay

Marth [2]: eclipse, Paperblade

Blitz [1]: Manix, BBM

Elieson [1]: Iris

Bizz [1]: Elieson, Strawman

Nano [1]: Paperblade, Subieko

Pride [1]: scorri

Subieko [0]: Blitz, Bluedoom, Kay

Strawman [0]: Paperblade,

Kay [0]: eclipse, Manix

Paperblade [0]: eclipse, nano

eclipse [0]: subieko, Haze

Iris [0]: Paperblade

Unvote

Vote:Strawman

Unvote

##Vote:Manix

##Unvote (BBM)

##Vote: Pride

Unvote

##Vote:Kay

##Vote: Kay

##Unvote, ##Vote: Blitz

##Unvote, ##Vote Kay

Edited June 5, 2012 by Balcerzak

[Iris]

Nooooooooooooooooooo Etherrr. );

I read everything. <3 Late, but I did, don't look at me like that, Paperblade. ):

IMO, the BBM wagon looks pretty terribad, well was pretty terribad. For now, ##Vote: Marth. I thought about voting for Pride for a bit, for being unhelpful basically, but well, I'm being that atm, and he's new, and ugh. I could've been convinced to hop onto a Subieko wagon that doesn't exist anymore, but for now I'll write that off as noob!town. Um, wow, we really need to consolidate onto a better wagon, like all of our opinions are split. :/ Like, Strawman and Subieko should commit to one of the others. . . and all voteless scum should vote.

Balcerzak, votals. I refreshed this time and didn't get ninja'd~! :D

[BBM]

You forgot to cross off my vote for Blitz.

According to that, we have a couple of people who aren't voting atm. Bizz and Nano, I think?

[BBM]

With Iris's vote, we have 3 wagons each with 3 people on them. Unless we want to nolynch, we should probably consolidate on one of them. I'd prefer Kay, but I wouldn't mind Marth either.

[Subieko]

Okay, caught up with all the posts from while I was at work. At this point, it seems that BBM, Marth, andKay are the wagons, and I'm not interested in lynching either BBM or Kay. Kay hasn't seemed scummy to me, and although BBM's reaction was mildly scummy, to me it felt like his wagon was easy place to stick a vote without much thought (Pride's vote stands out to me as particularly bad--he said that he doesn't mind BBM scummy but still wants to lynch him?).

Marth...I haven't found him scummy and I need to read back through the thread and look more closely.

I'm still not feeling great about Haze and don't like that he has nothing much to say about the BBM wagon aside from a vague 'maybe he's scum or maybe scum voted him' (which voters look scummy?), but a) I can't get a good read on him so I'm not confident about a vote on him, and b) it looks like most people think he's town so trying to start a wagon seems pointless this late in the day.

At this point the two I'm finding scummiest are Pride and Elieson. Pride seems uninterested in starting or participating in discussion and he voted BBM with weak reasons. Elieson has been posting but in my opinion hasn't really contributed much, and his BBM vote felt to me like he just wanted to park it on an established, easy wagon without much thought.

Again, though, I'm not sure trying to start a whole new wagon is a good idea at this point, so I will go with ##Unvote ##Vote: Pride. I think he's a better target than any of the three wagons at the moment. Gotta go eat food now, will be back to reread and think more about my vote before deadline.

[Paperblade]

With Iris's vote, we have 3 wagons each with 3 people on them. Unless we want to nolynch, we should probably consolidate on one of them. I'd prefer Kay, but I wouldn't mind Marth either.

aka "Don't lynch me"

[BBM]

Well, obviously, I'd rather not be lynched, but I didn't say we should lynch Kay or Marth just because of that. I made a post outlining my suspicions about both Kay and Marth before there were any votes on them at all.

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=32983&view=findpost&p=2005336

Pride has 3 votes now as well. That's 4 people now...

[Pride]

Yeah it is, but uh

why vote me?

I certainly don't like to talk much, but that's my M.O. generally speaking and every time I have talked, I've said what's on my mind honestly.

I've established that I'm refraining from action till I feel I have something together, and supposing I am lynched, what kind of info will we be able to derive from it when I flip town, besides yknow, the obvious?

[scorri]

##unvote

Ok Pride, you've convinced me that at the very least you should live another day until perhaps you have some more to contribute. Like I said, I originally felt like you were trying to just slip under the radar without helping contribute stuff, but if you're just waiting until you have more info I'll let it go for now. I will say though, if you're not contributing more in the future I will probably return to this suspicion. No that's not a threat, it's just a point of fact. I'm still not sure who I want to lynch, but I'll be back before deadline, so expect a vote from me then.

[nano]

From what I have seen so far the claims on each of the targets are not that strong, mostly based on "reads". Considering that there are way more Town than Mafia, shouldn't we hold our horses when there is no concrete target?

I mean, voting on your guts is good and all, but stats suggest that it's a lot more likely to hit a Townie than a Mafia when you vote semi-randomly without some sort of concrete proof.

[Subieko]

From what I have seen so far the claims on each of the targets are not that strong, mostly based on "reads". Considering that there are way more Town than Mafia, shouldn't we hold our horses when there is no concrete target?

I mean, voting on your guts is good and all, but stats suggest that it's a lot more likely to hit a Townie than a Mafia when you vote semi-randomly without some sort of concrete proof.

The thing is, the lynch isn't just how we get rid of scum, it's also how we get information. If we no lynch today because we don't have certain enough information, then come D2 we have just as little information. In other words, we haven't gotten anywhere.

There is a risk that we will mislynch, but if we never take any risks, how can we win?

[Grace]

From what I have seen so far the claims on each of the targets are not that strong, mostly based on "reads". Considering that there are way more Town than Mafia, shouldn't we hold our horses when there is no concrete target?

I mean, voting on your guts is good and all, but stats suggest that it's a lot more likely to hit a Townie than a Mafia when you vote semi-randomly without some sort of concrete proof.

This is exactly what I thought when I started playing. But here's the problem. NL'ing (No Lynching) is not an optimal way to play in D1, because without the information from a lynch, town is no better off then which they started. And town needs more information to be able to determine the mafia. And yes, D1 is a very likely mislynch, but it's just what happens. Also, there is almost no concrete proof throughout the entire game, except for (for example) when a cop is cleared and starts clearing people to be confirmed town, and similar situations.

(Also, just woke up, will address the stuff I missed shortly)

[Paperblade]

tbh I don't find Pride suspicious enough to warrant a vote.

[nano]

Shouldn't we be waiting for the town cop/mayor/whatever other power role to stand up and lead us with the info they gathered at night? I guess it doesn't work that simply huh...

[Paperblade]

What do we do if the cop dies?

Also Mayor is just a role that gets more votes

[Subieko]

Nngh, it's an hour to deadline, the Pride lynch is clearly not going to happen, and I don't want a no lynch due to tie. I'm going to ##Unvote for now, do some rereading, and try to decide which wagon to pick.

[Haze]

Shouldn't we be waiting for the town cop/mayor/whatever other power role to stand up and lead us with the info they gathered at night? I guess it doesn't work that simply huh...

No, we should not idly by waiting around for a cop that may not show up. The cop should stay hidden until he obtains a guilty, and until then, he should use his clear scans to help him narrow down suspects. A cop who reveals himself makes himself vulnerable, so he needs to make the reveal worth it.

Also remember that the mafia will usually not win through nightkills alone, they need town to start killing off their own, so they will attempt to influence the lynch, and so by watching everyone's behaviour, we can hopefully catch them out. For example say two people are particularly defensive of eachother, and one dies, flipping scum, there's a high chance that the one remaining is also scum (though others would argue only bad scum would do this, which simply isn't true, scum should try to defend eachother unless it's hopeless, they need to conserve their numbers.)

Additionally, mafia tend to like snuffing out people who are getting too close to the truth, which can allow us to speculate on why certain people were killed over others (though this isn't always reliable.)

Long story short, if we all simply agreed to no lynch, we'd have nothing to base our opinions on, no way to figure out who scum are, and would leave us up the creek without a paddle if our cop died, or if there isn't a cop, and it would also be incredibly boring for everyone who isn't a power role (ie. me.)

[Haze]

*We should not sit idly by

I can into english lately, serious.

[Kay]

At this point the two I'm finding scummiest are Pride and Elieson. Pride seems uninterested in starting or participating in discussion and he voted BBM with weak reasons. Elieson has been posting but in my opinion hasn't really contributed much, and his BBM vote felt to me like he just wanted to park it on an established, easy wagon without much thought.

Meh. Pride is talking somewhat, and he's been out of the game long enough that I think it's reasonable he doesn't have much to say. You kinda have a point about Eli, but he doesn't look that scummy to me.

I've been active lurking for a while because I haven't really had anything to say.

But Kay's vote on Subieko, and then her vote on Pride, seems suspicious. I mean, yes, Pride's point about Blitz was fairly obvious, but at that point, there weren't any votes on Blitz (other than my RVS vote), so it wasn't exactly sheeping or blending into the crowd even if it was obvious.

##Unvote, ##Vote Kay

How exactly do you expect anything to happen if people don't vote? Also, people don't have to blend in to be scummy, anyway.

Shouldn't we be waiting for the town cop/mayor/whatever other power role to stand up and lead us with the info they gathered at night? I guess it doesn't work that simply huh...

The mafia would just kill everyone off while we waited for results. The cop would only find scum 1/3rd of the time or so. We almost certainly can't just wait around that long. When you add in the possibility of the cop dying or being roleblocked or there not being a cop at all, but something like a Tracker that isn't as reliable, it's clear enough that it's not a valid strategy.

[nano]

Haha, I guess I didn't really think this through. Thanks for the insights.

[Paperblade]

For example say two people are particularly defensive of eachother, and one dies, flipping scum, there's a high chance that the one remaining is also scum (though others would argue only bad scum would do this, which simply isn't true, scum should try to defend eachother unless it's hopeless, they need to conserve their numbers.)

I disagree with this. Overtly defending your scumbuddy is stupid, since if your buddy is in need of that kind of defense you're just throwing yourself away. The only time when I would consider it is if I was close to victory (to push through a lynch) or if the game going longer favored the town more than me (ie the town has a good number of info roles).

Also I still like a Marth lynch more than the others, although if I am forced to choose between others I would vote Kay.